What does the line tell me? (re: boise/san jose)

[DaddyMcIlhon]

That Boise is overrated and not a BCS contender. A 6-0 BCS contender would be favored by at least 10 here in this spot and maybe even 14. I've watched Boise and they are not the same Boise they were when they beat OU in the Fiesta Bowl. Against this years Hawaii team, THAT Boise team would have won 66-14. Boise was up only 10-7 at halftime. This line wants the suckers to take Boise on a small number. I'll take the competitive WAC team that is 3-0 in conference, playing at home on a Friday night and on national TV against an overrated BSU team. Fade on.


San Jose St. +7 1/2 (4 units)

 

[Mags]

Agree that the line is off but I also think that your line of thinking may be off. I personally do not think it is a good idea to compare THIS Boise team to THAT Boise team when capping games...I'm not sure where that will get you other than no where good. Secondly, you mention the Hawaii game, they won by 20 and SJS beat them by 3 (yes they were away). Third, the 3-0 home record that you tout is against Utah State (1-6), San Diego State (1-6) and Division 1 AA UC Davis (4-4) who they beat by a whopping 3 points. Additionally, Boise scores 12+ ppg more and gives up about a TD less/game on a much more difficult schedule. All this said, yeah, there is something fishy about the line but your reasoning may get you into some trouble moving forward. NOT trying to start anything just giving you a little heads up. Everyone has their own way of capping games and I certainly respect that, maybe I just don't understand yours. Health tonight on the game bro and welcome aboard, haven't seen you around before. Peace.

 

[Sarcastic Sword]

Agree that the line is off but I also think that your line of thinking may be off. I personally do not think it is a good idea to compare THIS Boise team to THAT Boise team when capping games...I'm not sure where that will get you other than no where good. Secondly, you mention the Hawaii game, they won by 20 and SJS beat them by 3 (yes they were away). Third, the 3-0 home record that you tout is against Utah State (1-6), San Diego State (1-6) and Division 1 AA UC Davis (4-4) who they beat by a whopping 3 points. Additionally, Boise scores 12+ ppg more and gives up about a TD less/game on a much more difficult schedule. All this said, yeah, there is something fishy about the line but your reasoning may get you into some trouble moving forward. NOT trying to start anything just giving you a little heads up. Everyone has their own way of capping games and I certainly respect that, maybe I just don't understand yours. Health tonight on the game bro and welcome aboard, haven't seen you around before. Peace.

I agree - its amazes me sometimes the lengths people go to rationalize their side....The line is set to draw equal money - nothing more - dont overthink things..

 

[RambleOn]

Agree that the line is off but I also think that your line of thinking may be off. I personally do not think it is a good idea to compare THIS Boise team to THAT Boise team when capping games...I'm not sure where that will get you other than no where good. Secondly, you mention the Hawaii game, they won by 20 and SJS beat them by 3 (yes they were away). Third, the 3-0 home record that you tout is against Utah State (1-6), San Diego State (1-6) and Division 1 AA UC Davis (4-4) who they beat by a whopping 3 points. Additionally, Boise scores 12+ ppg more and gives up about a TD less/game on a much more difficult schedule. All this said, yeah, there is something fishy about the line but your reasoning may get you into some trouble moving forward. NOT trying to start anything just giving you a little heads up. Everyone has their own way of capping games and I certainly respect that, maybe I just don't understand yours. Health tonight on the game bro and welcome aboard, haven't seen you around before. Peace.

Where are you getting this info? I've got Boise at 120th schedule strength wise and San Jose St at 94th?

 

[DaddyMcIlhon]

Agree that the line is off but I also think that your line of thinking may be off. I personally do not think it is a good idea to compare THIS Boise team to THAT Boise team when capping games...

Mags, I appreciate your response. The reason I bring up the Zabransky team is that I believe the betting public looks at Boise and bets them thinking they are the same team. I think we both know they are not. The main reasoning behind my post is that I believe money can be won, not always of course, by simply analyzing the line. If you break it down, as you have, Boise is obviously the way to go. But the line set where it is now screams sucker bet to me. That is my angle here. Boise should be favored by 2 TDs here and they aren't. Again, thanks for your response and the welcoming. I have been lurking for awhile and intend to be a more active member of the community. Good health.

 

[Pirate88]

You are correct DM (will not call u daddy) Boise St is obviously the better team and should be favored higher, they can still win/no cover and maintain their ranking. The obvious usually loses, look at the Auburn apologists "wrong team favored, SEC, strength of schedule, etc" scoreboard. SJSU Spartans is the correct play and we will CASH on win #13

 

[Mags]

Ramble - simply looking at who each team has played that I even consider a decent team. SJS played at Nebraska and lost by 20 and Stanford by 13. Boise has beaten Oregon, S Miss, BG, Louisiana Tech, etc easily. You are correct by the actual schedule strength numbers though Ramble.

 

[J Galt]

I agree - its amazes me sometimes the lengths people go to rationalize their side....The line is set to draw equal money - nothing more - dont overthink things..

Don't make the mistake of thinking that equal number of bettors = equal amount of money. The more serious players in a lot of cases might be dumping a ton of cash on a side they feel great about while the lemmings are pounding the hell out of the other side. If you're not reading into this angle when gambling on sports I think you are leaving out a crucial aspect of handicapping. I'll always say; those guys setting those lines are much better at their jobs then we are at handicapping them.

 

[Mr. McIlhon]

<-----This way you guys and gals don't have to call me daddy. You still can, of course, if you'd like to.

 

[moneypit13]

San Jose is just a different team at home, and Boise is just a different team on the road.
San Jose, although the score didn't show it, kept Nebraska to some respectable yardage numbers.

 

[Pandawatch]

Quick note, the BSU team that beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl is the same BSU team that barely escaped San Jose State two years ago. This year's BSU team has a weaker O-line, better defense, and a better QB....honestly like this year's BSU team about as much as I liked their Fiesta Bowl team...think they're only overranked by 2-3 spots.

 

[Mags]

You are correct DM (will not call u daddy) Boise St is obviously the better team and should be favored higher, they can still win/no cover and maintain their ranking. The obvious usually loses, look at the Auburn apologists "wrong team favored, SEC, strength of schedule, etc" scoreboard. SJSU Spartans is the correct play and we will CASH on win #13

:36_11_6: