WGC-Mexico Championship

[gps_3]

First WGC of 2018. Obviously a pretty strong field, though there are a couple of players qualified who aren't going to play. Think Jason Day is staying home. Spieth was thinking about it, but I think I heard he committed. No cut event, so always a chance for a backdoor matchup win. Course is at a high elevation, so there will be some bombs hit.

Haven't thought about the matchups yet, but am considering Rahm, Fleetwood, Pieters, Noren, and a few others in my one and done. Will save DJ, Spieth, JT and others for the big tournaments to come.

Not sure if there's any trends between playing PGA National and then this tournament, good or bad. Will dive in when I have time

 

[B.A.R.]

Same course as last year? Hope so. I really liked it. Tough to find trends as this is the 2nd year of the Florida to Mexico bounce since they got kicked out of Doral.

 

[gps_3]

Same course as last year? Hope so. I really liked it. Tough to find trends as this is the 2nd year of the Florida to Mexico bounce since they got kicked out of Doral.

Yes, same course. I was going to look at Doral too, not so much for the course history, but to see how players fared playing a really tough, grinding course like PGA National, then playing the following week. May not be anything there.

Like everyone, most of my research starts with current form and course history. I have found that overall, current form is a better predictor of play than course history, though there are a few exceptions out there, where a player always plays well at a certain course. Most obvious example I can think of is Luke Donald at Innisbook and Harbor Town. And as obvious as it seems, OWGR is also a pretty good predictor. The better the player, the better the results.

 

[B.A.R.]

This was a really good tourney last year...

Top 10 was

DJ
Fleetwood
Rahm
Fisher
Pieters
J.T.
Phil
Rory
Sneds
Hatton

 

[B.A.R.]

Just sneak this in as well... "Rory, JT, Rickie commit to Bay Hill. Day, Rose, Hideki also playing. Now just awaiting official word from Tiger. Pretty good field shaping up."

 

[ProV1Colt]

Bay Hill on March Maddness Opening weekend?

 

[ProV1Colt]

https://twitter.com/pgatour/status/968689737195311105?s=21

 

[B.A.R.]

Bay Hill on March Maddness Opening weekend?

It used to be sweet 16/final 8 weekend but shifted slightly this year.

 

[gps_3]

Got 4 tournament matchups for this one:

Spieth -110 vs Fowler
Phil +105 vs Noren
Leishman +125 vs Hatton
Grace EV vs Reavie

Think I'm going to go with Phil in my 1 and done. Fleetwood is the obvious choice, and I am certain he will have 35+% pick him in my pool. Puts me in a hole if he does win, but I kind of like a charging Phil. I'm sure I'll have another opportunity to use Fleetwood

 

[B.A.R.]

Yeah I think Phil is good for one more... Then some fun at the Masters before he fades off into summer.

 

[ProV1Colt]

holy shit Bubba. just looked at the leader board . Cant wait to get home and watch the last 2 hrs

 

[ProV1Colt]

Bubba will be on my short list for Augusta

 

[B.A.R.]

Rough ass 90 minutes for Bubs.

 

[B.A.R.]

I have been treading lightly on a outright winner since JDay at Torrey but I'll throw some lunch money at these...

Bubba +3300
Finau +2500

Ya never know...

If Bubba can put that last 7 holes behind him this type of course suits him well. It is kinda like Riviera a bit.

 

[B.A.R.]

Just sneak this in as well... "Rory, JT, Rickie commit to Bay Hill. Day, Rose, Hideki also playing. Now just awaiting official word from Tiger. Pretty good field shaping up."

Tiger playing Valspar and Bay Hill -- just announced

 

[B.A.R.]

Finau had some weird double on a par 5... Can't figure it out...and just lipped one at 18 so his great start was thwarted ... Bubba looked good and could have went lower. Sergio playing great. Interesting leaderboard. DJ just sitting there quietly.

 

[B.A.R.]

Finger in my mouth rooting for bubba all weekend .

 

[ProV1Colt]

I took Phil+450, Sergio+500, DJ+550and Sharma+400as a 4pack to win after Rd 3
I may double up on Sharma because I want him to qualify for all the Majors.
He needs it more or wants it more

 

[ProV1Colt]

Yeah I think Phil is good for one more... Then some fun at the Masters before he fades off into summer.

Bubba & Phil for sure. And I think your are absolutely right he will fade. Except I do think Phil will show up for the US Open. He really wants that one. After that off in the summer breeze

 

[B.A.R.]

This is a fun leaderboard.

 

[ProV1Colt]

Yes it is. Exciting

 

[ProV1Colt]

Phil got pissed at some of those Mexicans when he was in the woods
I said get out of the way!!
His Spanish must have been bad

 

[ScopeY]

harman/hatton/garcia, those 3 need to falter for me

 

[ScopeY]

WOW jt

 

[KJ]

Guess that's how you finish

 

[ScopeY]

Perez melt down may have cost me decent money... would love him to birdie 1, hopefully 2 more!

 

[ProV1Colt]

Cmon Phil

 

[ProV1Colt]

Tied it!
He's got a chance

 

[ScopeY]

anyone but hatton!

 

[ScopeY]

big swings in payout comes to this! lets gooo mickel (or JT)

 

[ScopeY]

yes <3

 

[ProV1Colt]

That ball is bouncing around on that18 green

 

[ScopeY]

gg baby, 2nd place in fanduels 75K

 

[ProV1Colt]

playoff!

 

[KJ]

Ugh now gotta pull for JT

 

[ScopeY]

I think

 

[ProV1Colt]

Wie won now JT will. They are really good friends, push each other

 

[ProV1Colt]

Nice shot Philly

 

[KJ]

Now phade away phil

 

[ProV1Colt]

He's done for the year.
I bet That makes tiger want to win even more now

 

[Gandolf]

Phil beating Tiger back to the winners circle has to be irksome.

 

[gps_3]

Got 4 tournament matchups for this one:

Spieth -110 vs Fowler
Phil +105 vs Noren
Leishman +125 vs Hatton
Grace EV vs Reavie

Think I'm going to go with Phil in my 1 and done. Fleetwood is the obvious choice, and I am certain he will have 35+% pick him in my pool. Puts me in a hole if he does win, but I kind of like a charging Phil. I'm sure I'll have another opportunity to use Fleetwood

3-1 plus my one and done pick gets the W. Might be my best PGA event ever from a wagering perspective. I feel like every week so far this season, I have faded someone who contends for the lead well into the weekend. Only reason I faded Hatton was I read after his MC at Honda that he was dealing with a wrist injury, and I was hoping he was just going to Mexico to try to get it better and get a guaranteed payday. Guess he's better

 

[gps_3]

Bubba & Phil for sure. And I think your are absolutely right he will fade. Except I do think Phil will show up for the US Open. He really wants that one. After that off in the summer breeze

I don't know that Phil will coast after the US Open, he really wants to make Ryder Cup team. I think he's a lock no matter his ranking, as long as he's healthy, but I think he's on record as saying he is going to make the team on points and not a captain's pick

 

[B.A.R.]

Good stiff guys ... Watched the back 9 replay at 3am till 6am...awesome.... FIG is my favorite golfer so that was good to see... Tiger, your next . Leggo.

 

[B.A.R.]

I'll let you start Valpar thread gps... Your running good...