Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State LendingTree Bowl Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Georgia State Panthers
Saturday, December 26, 2020 at 3 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama
Western Kentucky Offense vs. Georgia State Panthers
By just about any statistical measure, Georgia State’s pass defense seems to be terrible.
The key word here is “seems” because the Panthers’ defensive statistics reflect the entirety of their season, not their recent play.
Towards the end of the season, Georgia State’s defense took massive steps forward.
The same seems to be true of Western Kentucky’s offense. But the Hilltoppers basically just matched their last two opponents’ average in points per game allowed.
So this is, qualitatively, still very much the Hilltopper offense that ranks 115th nationally in scoring 19.4 points per game.
Western Kentucky will pass a lot and otherwise place a large portion of its offense in the hands of quarterback Tyrrell Pigrome.
Pigrome is a dual-transfer quarterback who transferred from Big Ten bottom-feeder Maryland where he could not cut it.
With Pigrome at quarterback, WKU’s offense is lackluster and it doesn’t take chances.
While it may look nice that Pigrome hasn’t thrown any interceptions, he lacks aggressiveness. He only averages 5.4 YPA.
This general difficulty in moving the ball downfield with big plays — be they through the air or through the ground — creates greater likelihood that WKU has to grind out possessions.
Georgia State’s improvement on defense is manifest in its pass defense where it is giving opposing quarterbacks more trouble.
In the Panthers’ last game against South Alabama, for example, they held quarterback Desmond Trotter to one of his worst performances of the season in terms of passer rating.
Likewise, the week before, the Panthers held App State to 17 points while limiting App State’s quarterback to one of his lowest passing yardage totals on the season.
So Pigrome, who is failing to convert 60 percent of his pass attempts despite the low YPA, will have trouble grinding out drives.
Georgia State Offense vs. Western Kentucky Defense
Whereas the Hilltoppers are more reliant on a single player — their quarterback — the Panther offense is more balanced.
Balance on offense is crucial to limiting an opposing pass rush. WKU will want to rely on the historic sack-accruing success of defensive end DeAngelo Malone.
Like any other pass rusher, Malone wants the opponent to be in obvious passing situations where he knows to expect a pass.
So it will be important for the Panthers to create third-and-short situations where they maintain the option to run the ball.
First and second down will be successful downs overall for a Panther offense that relies on an able committee of running backs.
Two running backs worth noting are Destin Coates, who’s averaging 4.6 YPC, and Tucker Gregg, who’s averaging 5.4 YPC.
Of the two, Gregg relies more on his strength. He breaks through a lot of tackles with his physicality at 220 pounds.
These running backs will thrive against a Western Kentucky defense that ranks in the bottom half nationally in opposing YPC.
The strength of Western Kentucky is its secondary, which ranks among the nation’s best in categories like opposing pass yards per game and opposing passer rating.
Georgia State quarterback Cornelious Brown has feasted upon some weaker secondaries.
In turn, he’s struggled a lot against pass defenses that rank highly. So he is unproven against the level of quality that WKU’s secondary will show.
Given this bad match-up for Brown, the Panthers are going to want to keep the ball on the ground where the clock will continue to drain.
With their plethora of running backs allowing each individual one to stay fresh, Georgia State can move the ball some. But its lack of an effective passing game will make scoring much harder.
The Verdict
The over/under opened at as high a number as it did because Georgia State’s poor defensive start to the season makes its defense look worse than it is.
Their good, improved defense will perpetuate WKU’s season-long issues with scoring. But WKU will keep this game close and low-scoring with its strong pass defense.
For the above reasons, you should expect a close and lower-scoring game.
Best Bet: Under 51.5 at -109 with GTBets
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Georgia State Panthers
Saturday, December 26, 2020 at 3 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama
Western Kentucky Offense vs. Georgia State Panthers
By just about any statistical measure, Georgia State’s pass defense seems to be terrible.
The key word here is “seems” because the Panthers’ defensive statistics reflect the entirety of their season, not their recent play.
Towards the end of the season, Georgia State’s defense took massive steps forward.
The same seems to be true of Western Kentucky’s offense. But the Hilltoppers basically just matched their last two opponents’ average in points per game allowed.
So this is, qualitatively, still very much the Hilltopper offense that ranks 115th nationally in scoring 19.4 points per game.
Western Kentucky will pass a lot and otherwise place a large portion of its offense in the hands of quarterback Tyrrell Pigrome.
Pigrome is a dual-transfer quarterback who transferred from Big Ten bottom-feeder Maryland where he could not cut it.
With Pigrome at quarterback, WKU’s offense is lackluster and it doesn’t take chances.
While it may look nice that Pigrome hasn’t thrown any interceptions, he lacks aggressiveness. He only averages 5.4 YPA.
This general difficulty in moving the ball downfield with big plays — be they through the air or through the ground — creates greater likelihood that WKU has to grind out possessions.
Georgia State’s improvement on defense is manifest in its pass defense where it is giving opposing quarterbacks more trouble.
In the Panthers’ last game against South Alabama, for example, they held quarterback Desmond Trotter to one of his worst performances of the season in terms of passer rating.
Likewise, the week before, the Panthers held App State to 17 points while limiting App State’s quarterback to one of his lowest passing yardage totals on the season.
So Pigrome, who is failing to convert 60 percent of his pass attempts despite the low YPA, will have trouble grinding out drives.
Georgia State Offense vs. Western Kentucky Defense
Whereas the Hilltoppers are more reliant on a single player — their quarterback — the Panther offense is more balanced.
Balance on offense is crucial to limiting an opposing pass rush. WKU will want to rely on the historic sack-accruing success of defensive end DeAngelo Malone.
Like any other pass rusher, Malone wants the opponent to be in obvious passing situations where he knows to expect a pass.
So it will be important for the Panthers to create third-and-short situations where they maintain the option to run the ball.
First and second down will be successful downs overall for a Panther offense that relies on an able committee of running backs.
Two running backs worth noting are Destin Coates, who’s averaging 4.6 YPC, and Tucker Gregg, who’s averaging 5.4 YPC.
Of the two, Gregg relies more on his strength. He breaks through a lot of tackles with his physicality at 220 pounds.
These running backs will thrive against a Western Kentucky defense that ranks in the bottom half nationally in opposing YPC.
The strength of Western Kentucky is its secondary, which ranks among the nation’s best in categories like opposing pass yards per game and opposing passer rating.
Georgia State quarterback Cornelious Brown has feasted upon some weaker secondaries.
In turn, he’s struggled a lot against pass defenses that rank highly. So he is unproven against the level of quality that WKU’s secondary will show.
Given this bad match-up for Brown, the Panthers are going to want to keep the ball on the ground where the clock will continue to drain.
With their plethora of running backs allowing each individual one to stay fresh, Georgia State can move the ball some. But its lack of an effective passing game will make scoring much harder.
The Verdict
The over/under opened at as high a number as it did because Georgia State’s poor defensive start to the season makes its defense look worse than it is.
Their good, improved defense will perpetuate WKU’s season-long issues with scoring. But WKU will keep this game close and low-scoring with its strong pass defense.
For the above reasons, you should expect a close and lower-scoring game.
Best Bet: Under 51.5 at -109 with GTBets
