West Virginia vs. Iowa State: NCAAF Week 14 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Saturday, December 5, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at MidAmerican Energy Field at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa
Iowa State’s Defensive Weakness
When Iowa State has yielded its highest scoring outputs, pass defense was the main problem.
Early in the season, for example, TCU scored 34 points while passing for 399 yards and averaging just 2.3 YPC on the ground.
Recently, when Baylor scored 31 points against Iowa State, Bear quarterback Charlie Brewer nearly had his best game of the season in terms of passer rating.
In the Big 12, the Cyclones rank seventh in opposing passing yards per game, right behind Kansas.
Good quarterbacks have great days against the Cyclone pass defense.
So the key to doing well against Iowa State’s defense is to want to pass the ball and to be able to do it well.
West Virginia Pass Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
West Virginia is one of two Big 12 teams to rank top-20 nationally in pass-play percentage.
The Mountaineers are the only team in the conference who, on top of passing at such a high rate, also possess a quarterback who ranks in the top five in the conference in passing yards.
Their quarterback ranks second in the category. Jarret Doege is a major reason why West Virginia’s offense is soaring relative to last year.
Doege is able to navigate more complicated coverage schemes and he is quick at figuring out both what a given defense likes to do and how to attack a given secondary.
This intelligence was evident in WVU’s game against Kansas State where the Wildcats would alternate between coverage types during a different play.
Doege rapidly adjusted and threw for 301 yards and two touchdowns against the Wildcats.
Defensively, the Cyclones like to employ a mix of coverage looks including split-field coverage looks where the defense performs a different type of coverage on different sides of the field at the same time.
But Doege is too intelligent to be fooled, which is why he hasn’t been intercepted in any of his past four games.
Leddie Brown
Despite its proclivity to pass the ball, WVU also possesses a sound running game with one of the conference’s top running backs.
Leddie Brown currently ranks second in the Big 12 in rushing yards per game.
Brown is a tough runner whose strength makes it difficult for defenders to bring him down. Sometimes, they will literally just bounce off of him.
He has positive vision which allows him to gain momentum after identifying a hole. It’s harder to tackle him when he has momentum.
But he has good speed, as well. So it’s useful for him to operate out of shotgun since he can begin running downhill out of the formation.
Because of his traits as a runner, he’s averaging 5.4 YPC. He will keep the Cyclone defense honest by giving the Mountaineer offense solid balance.
Iowa State Offense vs. West Virginia Pass Defense
It will be difficult for the Cyclones to find more success being balanced on offense with a running back who fails to approach his rushing averages on the season when playing strong run defenses.
Like Texas, which held ISU’s Breece Hall last week to his worst performance of the season in terms of yards and YPC, West Virginia ranks top-30 nationally in opposing YPC.
The Mountaineers feature the Sills Brothers on their defensive line.
On defense, stats from last year and this one reflect their ability to accrue a tremendous number of quarterback pressures and other evidences of backfield activity despite being double-teamed.
West Virginia also likes to have its defensive linemen perform stunts and other distracting maneuvers that free up abundant space for second-level defenders like Akheem Mesidor, who ranks seventh in the conference in sacks.
So Iowa State will contend with a tough front seven, but also a tough secondary that helps the Mountaineers rank sixth nationally in pass defense.
Pass defense is not the achilles heel for West Virginia that it is for Iowa State. It is actually a strength.
The Verdict
Iowa State is coming off a close, emotional comeback win against Texas and has ascended to its highest spot in terms of standings and rankings.
Even if the Cyclones can handle success and handle their emotion, West Virginia poses a tough match-up on both sides of the field.
For the above reasons, expect West Virginia to cover with a strong passing game supported by a top-notch running back and with a stacked front seven helping out a highly-ranked secondary.
Best Bet: Mountaineers +7 at -105 with BetOnline
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Saturday, December 5, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at MidAmerican Energy Field at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa
Iowa State’s Defensive Weakness
When Iowa State has yielded its highest scoring outputs, pass defense was the main problem.
Early in the season, for example, TCU scored 34 points while passing for 399 yards and averaging just 2.3 YPC on the ground.
Recently, when Baylor scored 31 points against Iowa State, Bear quarterback Charlie Brewer nearly had his best game of the season in terms of passer rating.
In the Big 12, the Cyclones rank seventh in opposing passing yards per game, right behind Kansas.
Good quarterbacks have great days against the Cyclone pass defense.
So the key to doing well against Iowa State’s defense is to want to pass the ball and to be able to do it well.
West Virginia Pass Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
West Virginia is one of two Big 12 teams to rank top-20 nationally in pass-play percentage.
The Mountaineers are the only team in the conference who, on top of passing at such a high rate, also possess a quarterback who ranks in the top five in the conference in passing yards.
Their quarterback ranks second in the category. Jarret Doege is a major reason why West Virginia’s offense is soaring relative to last year.
Doege is able to navigate more complicated coverage schemes and he is quick at figuring out both what a given defense likes to do and how to attack a given secondary.
This intelligence was evident in WVU’s game against Kansas State where the Wildcats would alternate between coverage types during a different play.
Doege rapidly adjusted and threw for 301 yards and two touchdowns against the Wildcats.
Defensively, the Cyclones like to employ a mix of coverage looks including split-field coverage looks where the defense performs a different type of coverage on different sides of the field at the same time.
But Doege is too intelligent to be fooled, which is why he hasn’t been intercepted in any of his past four games.
Leddie Brown
Despite its proclivity to pass the ball, WVU also possesses a sound running game with one of the conference’s top running backs.
Leddie Brown currently ranks second in the Big 12 in rushing yards per game.
Brown is a tough runner whose strength makes it difficult for defenders to bring him down. Sometimes, they will literally just bounce off of him.
He has positive vision which allows him to gain momentum after identifying a hole. It’s harder to tackle him when he has momentum.
But he has good speed, as well. So it’s useful for him to operate out of shotgun since he can begin running downhill out of the formation.
Because of his traits as a runner, he’s averaging 5.4 YPC. He will keep the Cyclone defense honest by giving the Mountaineer offense solid balance.
Iowa State Offense vs. West Virginia Pass Defense
It will be difficult for the Cyclones to find more success being balanced on offense with a running back who fails to approach his rushing averages on the season when playing strong run defenses.
Like Texas, which held ISU’s Breece Hall last week to his worst performance of the season in terms of yards and YPC, West Virginia ranks top-30 nationally in opposing YPC.
The Mountaineers feature the Sills Brothers on their defensive line.
On defense, stats from last year and this one reflect their ability to accrue a tremendous number of quarterback pressures and other evidences of backfield activity despite being double-teamed.
West Virginia also likes to have its defensive linemen perform stunts and other distracting maneuvers that free up abundant space for second-level defenders like Akheem Mesidor, who ranks seventh in the conference in sacks.
So Iowa State will contend with a tough front seven, but also a tough secondary that helps the Mountaineers rank sixth nationally in pass defense.
Pass defense is not the achilles heel for West Virginia that it is for Iowa State. It is actually a strength.
The Verdict
Iowa State is coming off a close, emotional comeback win against Texas and has ascended to its highest spot in terms of standings and rankings.
Even if the Cyclones can handle success and handle their emotion, West Virginia poses a tough match-up on both sides of the field.
For the above reasons, expect West Virginia to cover with a strong passing game supported by a top-notch running back and with a stacked front seven helping out a highly-ranked secondary.
Best Bet: Mountaineers +7 at -105 with BetOnline
