Weekend Footy 12th Aug to 13th Aug

bad gambler

bad gambler

Pretty much a regular
Well it was a brutal start to this forum for me last week, shooting blanks


Lets win some cash this weekend though

:moose:
 
Toronto_Mike said:
i played the Swans -10.5 any thoughts or am i already screwed?
Click to expand...

Screwed only in the sense that I'm giving you the kiss of death since I am on it as well....


AFL

Sydney Swans to cover -12.5 v Melbourne Demons - (-115) (3 units)

Without doubt this is the marquee matchup of the round, where the 3rd placed Dees play the 4th placed Swans. With Collingwood's shock loss last night, the winner of this game is in pole position to grab a top 4 spot at the end of the regular season, vital for any flag aspirants given the double chance that is offered for a top 4 finish.

Swans are making their typical late season surge, similar to last year where they won the flag. If this was status quo I would have set this game at evens but Dees are missing some key players for today especially in the midfield with Pickett, Davey and key forward Robertson all out for today. Demons have not lost at the MCG all year, winning 9 matches there but on the flip side, Demons have not beaten the Swans in Melbourne since 2001.

I just don't see the Demons having the depth to cover for all their injuries today, and although both teams will be desperate to win, the Swans simply have more momentum, no major injury concerns and play the MCG very well.


good luck :shake:
 
NRL

Going to play the total tonight in Auckland, just got word that the weather over there is comparable to what it was like last week when the Sharks played the Warriors. Coupled with the fact that the Cowboys are completely devoid of their attacking options and Warriors missing both Fein and Martin.


"UNDER" 39.5 Warriors v Cowboys - (-105) (2.5 units)

good luck :shake:
 
bad gambler said:
Screwed only in the sense that I'm giving you the kiss of death since I am on it as well....


AFL

Sydney Swans to cover -12.5 v Melbourne Demons - (-115) (3 units)

Without doubt this is the marquee matchup of the round, where the 3rd placed Dees play the 4th placed Swans. With Collingwood's shock loss last night, the winner of this game is in pole position to grab a top 4 spot at the end of the regular season, vital for any flag aspirants given the double chance that is offered for a top 4 finish.

Swans are making their typical late season surge, similar to last year where they won the flag. If this was status quo I would have set this game at evens but Dees are missing some key players for today especially in the midfield with Pickett, Davey and key forward Robertson all out for today. Demons have not lost at the MCG all year, winning 9 matches there but on the flip side, Demons have not beaten the Swans in Melbourne since 2001.

I just don't see the Demons having the depth to cover for all their injuries today, and although both teams will be desperate to win, the Swans simply have more momentum, no major injury concerns and play the MCG very well.


good luck :shake:
Click to expand...

Finally got the W money;
 
Nice hit bad..

money;


Where do you guys play this? Offshore?...if so what book(s)?

thx
 
B.A.R. said:
money;


Where do you guys play this? Offshore?...if so what book(s)?

thx
Click to expand...

BAR - I play these lines at "local" online books like centrebet & tab. But for Americans, the common book used is pinny though unfortunately they only offer sides but no totals as yet. Still it's a start.
 
This one kicks off in a tick over an hour..

NRL - Rugby League

Parramatta Eels to cover -4.5 v Cronulla Sharks - (-110) (3 units)

I simply have to fade the Sharks tonight. Both teams are obviously desperate for the win, Sharks even moreso if they harbour any hopes making the top 8. However:

- Eels have not been beaten in the last 9 weeks (including a week for the bye). Sharks have now lost 6 matchs on the bounce.
- Sharks coach Raper has completely reshuffled the side with many big names being axed. I can't imagine they could have worked out combinations within a week.

Bottom line, last week's performance against the Warriors said it all for me. If the Sharks could not beat a team who had effectively mailed in their season and had nothing to play for, what is there to suggest they could win tonight against one of the hottest teams in the competition?

Eels in a romp tonight, public play or not.

good luck
 
bad gambler said:
NRL

Going to play the total tonight in Auckland, just got word that the weather over there is comparable to what it was like last week when the Sharks played the Warriors. Coupled with the fact that the Cowboys are completely devoid of their attacking options and Warriors missing both Fein and Martin.


"UNDER" 39.5 Warriors v Cowboys - (-105) (2.5 units)

good luck :shake:
Click to expand...

2 down and 1 to go now. An Eels cover will top off a sweet Saturday :)
 
bad gambler said:
This one kicks off in a tick over an hour..

NRL - Rugby League

Parramatta Eels to cover -4.5 v Cronulla Sharks - (-110) (3 units)

I simply have to fade the Sharks tonight. Both teams are obviously desperate for the win, Sharks even moreso if they harbour any hopes making the top 8. However:

- Eels have not been beaten in the last 9 weeks (including a week for the bye). Sharks have now lost 6 matchs on the bounce.
- Sharks coach Raper has completely reshuffled the side with many big names being axed. I can't imagine they could have worked out combinations within a week.

Bottom line, last week's performance against the Warriors said it all for me. If the Sharks could not beat a team who had effectively mailed in their season and had nothing to play for, what is there to suggest they could win tonight against one of the hottest teams in the competition?

Eels in a romp tonight, public play or not.

good luck
Click to expand...

sweep 'em up :wacka wacka:

Might have a ping at the superleague match starting in 3 hours, just waiting on team news otherwise will be back tomorrow.
 
English Superleague - Rugby League

Harlequins to cover +10.5 v Bulls - (-110) (2 units)

Although the Quins are mid table they have shown that at home they are very tough to back against the spread. They are 4-1-0 in their last 5 home games. Bulls have have been on a scoring rampage in their last two outings however both have been against a very average Wolves team who have lost half their first team to injuries and Wakey.

Quins should be able to keep this reasonably close provided they don't allow the Bulls pack to dominate from the outset of the match.

Starts in 2 hours.

good luck
 
bad gambler said:
English Superleague - Rugby League

Harlequins to cover +10.5 v Bulls - (-110) (2 units)

Although the Quins are mid table they have shown that at home they are very tough to back against the spread. They are 4-1-0 in their last 5 home games. Bulls have have been on a scoring rampage in their last two outings however both have been against a very average Wolves team who have lost half their first team to injuries and Wakey.

Quins should be able to keep this reasonably close provided they don't allow the Bulls pack to dominate from the outset of the match.

Starts in 2 hours.

good luck
Click to expand...

Duff man says, Oooh yeah - the Quins pull out a remarkable S/U win :hammer:
 
Mike leaning on Carlton pk em and possibly even the Crows laying the points

Will finalise in a bit, just to got to make sure I've got the team news right for both games :shake:
 
Well bit of a backflip here but there are simply too many outs for the Crows...

AFL


Fremantle Dockers to cover +18.5 v Adelaide Crows - (-110) (3 units)

+

Fremantle Dockers to beat Adelaide Crows - (+215) (0.5 units)

Call me crazy for fading the best team in the competition at home but there are simply too many quality players missing for the Crows today. Burton, Riccuto, Hart are all out and although McLeod is back, he has not played for nearly a month so I don't expect him to click straight away.

Fremantle are still trying to lock up a finals berth and are on the back of a 5 game winning streak, albeit they have come up against fairly weak opposition apart from Collingwood, but it was the way they blew each of them away that was very impressive.

good luck
 
BG, does losing have any real consequences for the Crows? I mean, can they afford to have a game off and not even think about it?
 
OK, I see its basically them and the West Coast. Is finishing 1st that much more important over 2nd, the real question, since neither is going to finish 3rd.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
BG, does losing have any real consequences for the Crows? I mean, can they afford to have a game off and not even think about it?
Click to expand...

BC - should they lose today S/U, they will be tied for first with the Eagles but by virtue of a having a far superior % will still remain in first place.

However in essence there is no distinction between finishing first or second as both teams will have a prelim final at home. Add to that both of them have effectively wrapped up the 1 & 2 spots. I know in NRL the minor premiers at least get a cash bonus of $100k, that doesn't happen in AFL.

Basically they could afford to lose this game and it won't affect them the slightest. However one would think they don't take that mentality into the game though lol
 
Finals system goes:

1 v 4
2 v 3

1 & 2 plays in their respective home grounds, with the loser getting another bite in the cherry.

5 v 8
6 v 7

Above matches will be a straight knock out.
 
Thanks, BG. For an off the cuff consideration, I think I'll pass. I'd like Freemantle to be in a bit more danger of not making the playoffs. But I'm also taking a risk on Brisbane anyway, so thats enough for me. GL.
 
bad gambler said:
Well bit of a backflip here but there are simply too many outs for the Crows...

AFL


Fremantle Dockers to cover +18.5 v Adelaide Crows - (-110) (3 units)

+

Fremantle Dockers to beat Adelaide Crows - (+215) (0.5 units)

Call me crazy for fading the best team in the competition at home but there are simply too many quality players missing for the Crows today. Burton, Riccuto, Hart are all out and although McLeod is back, he has not played for nearly a month so I don't expect him to click straight away.

Fremantle are still trying to lock up a finals berth and are on the back of a 5 game winning streak, albeit they have come up against fairly weak opposition apart from Collingwood, but it was the way they blew each of them away that was very impressive.

good luck
Click to expand...
Freo win S/U :money2:


I'm really tempted to have a ping at the Dockers to win the flag this year at around +1600 - very imrpessive performance
 
There are a spade of Superleague matches that start in several hours, will take a look little later and post anything I like :shake:
 
Cheers guys...

One more to end the weekend.

English Superleague - Rugby League

Huddersfield Giants to cover +9.5 v Hull - (-115) (3 units)

This line is another overreaction IMO to the results of last week, where Huddersfield got hammered by the league leaders away from home by 40+ points. Previously to that though, they had compiled a record of 4-1-0 ATS in their last 5 home games, weirdly the same as the Harlequins from yesterday. Add to that an impressive win away in the Powergen Cup SF against Leeds. But more importantly though, the Giants will be playing hard for a win as after the Quins win yesterday they now find themselves close to the relegation zone.

Similar to Quins yesterday, they will need to start well against a Hull team attempting to hold down a second spot in the league.

Kick off in around 5 hours....

good luck
 
bad gambler said:
Cheers guys...

One more to end the weekend.

English Superleague - Rugby League

Huddersfield Giants to cover +9.5 v Hull - (-115) (3 units)

This line is another overreaction IMO to the results of last week, where Huddersfield got hammered by the league leaders away from home by 40+ points. Previously to that though, they had compiled a record of 4-1-0 ATS in their last 5 home games, weirdly the same as the Harlequins from yesterday. Add to that an impressive win away in the Powergen Cup SF against Leeds. But more importantly though, the Giants will be playing hard for a win as after the Quins win yesterday they now find themselves close to the relegation zone.

Similar to Quins yesterday, they will need to start well against a Hull team attempting to hold down a second spot in the league.

Kick off in around 5 hours....

good luck
Click to expand...

First black mark for the weekend - Hudders were lucky to lose by 14 IMO, terrible performance

Will be back next week to do it all again :shake:
 
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