--- NFL ---
WEEK 15 [11-7 +17.27u]
WEEK 16 [18-7 +41.35u]
WEEK 17 [16-6 +37.49u]
WEEK 18 [3-0 +7.22u]
------------------------
SEASON [183-155 +101.17u]
LAST [3-0 +7.22u]
SATURDAY
4/1.45 JAGUARS -275
3/2.86 TITANS 40 -105
3/2.91 CHIEFS -8½ -103
SUNDAY
- 3/2.86 RAMS +6 -105
- 4/3.85 JETS +3½ -104
- 3/2.86 DOLPHINS u37 -105
- 3/2.80 PACKERS -4½ -107
- 4/3.57 STEELERS -2½ -112
- 4/3.92 STEELERS u40 -102
- 3/3.90 TEXANS +130
- 4/3.81 COLTS u37½ -105
- 3/2.86 49ERS -14 -105
- 4/3.81 49ERS u39½ -105
- 3/2.88 BUCCANEERS +4 -104
- 5/4.76 FALCONS u40½ -105
- 3/2.86 COWBOYS -7 -105
- 3/2.86 COMMANDERS u40 -105
- 4/3.81 PANTHERS +3½ -105
- 4/3.77 SAINTS u41½ -106
- 5/4.76 BILLS -7½ -105
- 5/4.76 BENGALS -9 -105
- 3/2.88 VIKINGS -7 -104
The first thing is obvious, most of these games are meaningless and it's really tough to cap motivation at this point. I've always thought the final week of the regular season was one of the toughest of the year to cap, but I've actually had decent success in recent years, so I'm still firing away,
NYJ was relegated to spoiler after tanking season with a five-game losing streak. The Fish also bring a 5-game losing streak and need a win for a chance at the playoffs. MIA is down to 3rd option at QB: Skylar Thompson(0-1 as a starter) after Tua(concussion protocol) and Bridgewater(broken finger) were ruled out. MIA has the #6 offense in the league with plenty of weapons but not the same without Tua and probably even worse down to #3 QB, especially considering the Jets #3 ranked D that allows only 19.1 points per game. Jets problems are on offense as they have only averaged 12 points during the current losing streak. NYJ opened +3 and after dropping as low as 1 is now back up to +3½ and 37. I'll have to back NY and the under in a low-scoring slugfest in balmy Miami.
No incentives in New Orleans since both are eliminated from playoff contention. NO was beaten early season by a Baker-Mayfield-led Panther team when the Saints still had Jameis Winston at the helm...my how times change. McCaffrey was also still with CAR at that point. Even after losing multiple players to injuries and departures, CAR still moves the ball and actually has been more efficient than before. In the last 3 games, CAR AVGs 7.0 ypp (1st), and Darnold's averaged 272 pass yards per game with 5 TD to 1 INT. Without McCaffrey, Panthers still rank in the top half of rushing offenses,
per DVOA. The Saints have won 3 straight, but not because of Andy Dalton as he's averaged 149 pass yards with 2 TD / 2 INT. Kamara has rushed for 241 yards in the last 3 games. NO is 4-3 both SU & ATS in the last 7, but it's hard to see how as they rank 3rd to last in total yards and 5th lowest in points (15.4 avg). NO has allowed 3rd fewest points in L7 leading to unders cashing in 6 of their last 7....hard to see this game much different than a low-scoring battle that could go either way, probably by a FG or so. I'll take the points and hit that under.
randoms...
HOME CHALK OVER 6 COVERS 59% (53-37-4) OVER LAST 15 YEARS (10-5-1 SINCE 1/1/22:REG SEASON ONLY)
LAR 5-1 ATS IN LAST 6 VS SEA
GIANTS POSSIBLY THE QUIETEST 12-4 ATS OVERALL THIS SEASON & 9-2 AS A DOG
MIA 13-4 ATS @HOME VS AFC LAST 3 YEARS
GB 10-1 ATS @HOME VS NFC LAST 2 YEARS
PIT 13-4 ATS IN GAMES LINED <=3 LAST 3 SEASON
SF 9-2 ATS VS NFC THIS SEASON
AZ 1-9 ATS VS TEAMS WITH WINNING RECORD IN 2ND HALF OF THE SEASON LAST 3 YEARS
ATL 2-9 ATS @HOME WITH 6 DAYS REST OR LESS LAST 2 YEARS
ATL 4-13 ATS @HOME VS NFC LAST 3 YEARS
NO 8-1 ATS revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons
CIN 13-3 ATS OVERALL THIS SEASON
CIN 9-2 ATS IN VE NFC THIS SEASON
CIN 9-2 ATS ON TURF THIS SEASON
CIN 6-0 ATS IN JAN LAST 2 YEARS
CIN 14-2 ATS VS TEAMS WITH WINNING RECORDS LAST 2 YEARS
3.15/3 Bills -1 -105
