WEEK15 🚀

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
V

MONDAY
✅5/5.05 LAC +2' +101
❌4/3.64 PHI o41' -110
✅4/2.86 TEAS.(LAC +9 & o34) 7-Pt

WEEK 14: [16-14 +4.94u]
LAST : [2-1 +3.91u]

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Up a little over last 30 days, but still work to do on season totals. Teasers have been a pleasant surprise as I've hardly played them in years.

WEEK 15​


THURSDAY
  • 5/4.67 TAM -5 -107
  • 6/5.71 TAM u44 -105
  • 5/4.22 TEAS.(TAM +1' & u51) 7-Pt
1765473600415.png

randoms...
  • TAM 7-19 ATS 26.9% IN PRIMETIME 2018-25(NFL LOWEST)
  • ATL 2-16 11.1% ON TOTAL IN PRIMETIME 2018-25 (NFL LOWEWST)
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Slight lean to Bucs for model, was a play at 4'

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Yds Diff is (Rush per play + Pass per play) minus (allowed rush per play + pass per play)

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WEEK 15​


THURSDAY
❌5/4.67 TAM -5 -107
❌6/5.71 TAM u44 -105
❌5/4.22 TEAS.(TAM +1' & u51) 7-Pt

LAST [0-3 -16u]

SUNDAY (Early window)
  • 7/6.48 ARI +10' -108
  • 4/3.48 ARI o42 -115
  • 4/3.77 LV +13 -107
  • 4/3.48 LV o38 -115
  • 3.15/3 NYJ +14 -105
  • 4/3.81 JAX u41 -105
  • 3.15/3 CLE +7' -105
  • 4/4.52 NE +113
  • 3.30/3 NE +2 -110
  • 6/5.77 NE u49 -104
  • 4/3.15 CIN +3' -127
  • 3.15/3 LAC +6 -105
  • 8/6.84 LAC o40' -117
  • 4/3.36 WAS +3 -119
  • 4/3.81 NYG u46' -105
  • 5/4.40 TEAS.(JAX -7 & u48) 7-Pt
  • 5/3.70 TEAS.(CHI PK & u45) 7-Pt
  • 5/4.45 TEAS.(LAC +16, CIN +13 & u61') 10-Pt
  • 5/5.66 TEAS.(ARI +18, NE +9, CIN +10') 7'-Pt
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​
randoms...
  • DOGS BEEN ROLLING: 53-35 60.2% ATS LAST 6 WEEKS
  • ARI 6-1 ATS IN L7 ROADIES
  • CLE 5-14 ATS IN L19 GAMES
  • CHI 8-3 ATS IN L11 GAMES
  • BUF 0-5 ATS IN L5 VS NE
  • NE 8-2 ATS & 10-0 SU IN L10 GAMES
  • TOP RANKED TEAMS LAST 7 GAMES:
    • COVERS: SEA 6-1 ATS / TAM & WAS 1-6
    • OVERS: ATL & NYG 6-1
    • UNDERS: HOU, NO & KAN 6-1
    • AVERAGE SCORING MARGIN: RAMS 17.4, SEA 16.0, NE 11.4, BUF 7.6
    • RUSH PER PLAY: DET 5.58, IND 5.39, BUF 5.23, CHI 5.23, MIA 5.10
    • PASS PER PLAY: NE 8.55, SEA 7.99, BUF 7.71, DAL 7.56, DET 7.50
    • RUSH DEF P/PLAY: IND 3.52, KAN 3.55, DEN 3.56, JAX 3.62, LV 3.76
    • PASS DEF P/PLAY: SEA 4.67, HOU 5.21, NE 5.28, JAX 5.31, CLE 5.45
    • SACKS: ATL 32, CLE 30, DEN 25, TEN 23, HOU 22, PHI 22, SEA 21
    • 3D%: GB .517, SF .512, LAC .486, BUF .478, CIN .478, CHI .476
    • 3D% ALLOWED: SEA .263, LAC .301, NO .306, MIA .310, NE .317
  • BEST / WORST FOR 2024-2025
    • BEST RECORD: DET 23-7, PHI/BUF 22-8, DEN/KAN 21-9
    • WORST RECORD: TEN/NYG 5-25, CLE/LV 6-24, NO/NYJ 8-22
    • BEST ATS: DET 19-10, LAC 19-11, PHI/LAR 18-12, DEN/PIT 17-13
    • WORST ATS: TEN 8-21, CLE 9-21, NO/ATL/NYG 12-18
q92msgu3ar6064onospt

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MODEL PLAYS: NYJ, NE, CIN, IND, DEN, NO (Doesn't consider Indy QB injury)

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LATE AFTERNOON

  • 4/3.81 SEA -13' -105
  • 4/3.74 SEA u42 -107
  • 4/3.54 DEN u43 -113
  • 10/9.52 DET +6 -105
  • 4/3.64 LAR u55 -110
  • 7/7.00 NO +2' +100
  • 6/5.88 NO u41' -102
  • 3.27/3 SF -12 -109
  • 4/3.85 sf u44' -104
  • 5/4.25 TEAS.(DET +13 & u61') 7-Pt
  • 5/4.30 TEAS.(SEA -3', GB +8. & u52') 10-Pt
 
SUNDAY
❌7/6.48 ARI +10' -108
✅4/3.48 ARI o42 -115
❌4/3.77 LV +13 -107
❌4/3.48 LV o38 -115
❌3.15/3 NYJ +14 -105
❌4/3.81 JAX u41 -105
❌3.15/3 CLE +7' -105
❌4/4.52 NE +113
❌3.30/3 NE +2 -110
❌6/5.77 NE u49 -104
❌4/3.15 CIN +3' -127
✅3.15/3 LAC +6 -105
❌8/6.84 LAC o40' -117
✅4/3.36 WAS +3 -119
❌4/3.81 NYG u46' -105
❌5/4.40 TEAS.(JAX -7 & u48) 7-Pt
✅5/3.70 TEAS.(CHI PK & u45) 7-Pt
❌5/4.45 TEAS.(LAC +16, CIN +13 & u61') 10-Pt
❌5/5.66 TEAS.(ARI +18, NE +9, CIN +10') 7'-Pt
❌4/3.81 SEA -13' -105
✅4/3.74 SEA u42 -107
❌4/3.54 DEN u43 -113
❌10/9.52 DET +6 -105
❌4/3.64 LAR u55 -110
✅7/7.00 NO +2' +100
✅6/5.88 NO u41' -102
✅3.27/3 SF -12 -109
❌4/3.85 SF u44' -104
❌5/4.25 TEAS.(DET +13 & u61') 7-Pt
❌5/4.30 TEAS.(SEA -3', GB +8. & u52') 10-Pt

[8-22 -75u]

IT DON'T GET NO WORSE, COUNT 1-5 ON TEASERS IT'S MY WORSE DAY EVER UNIT-WISE

but still firing away...
  • 4/3.15 MIN +6' -127
  • 6/5.77 DAL u48 -104
  • 4/3.70 TEAS.(MIN +11' & u53') 6-PT

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WEEK 15

THURSDAY
❌5/4.67 TAM -5 -107
❌6/5.71 TAM u44 -105
❌5/4.22 TEAS.(TAM +1' & u51) 7-Pt

SUNDAY
❌7/6.48 ARI +10' -108
✅4/3.48 ARI o42 -115
❌4/3.77 LV +13 -107
❌4/3.48 LV o38 -115
❌3.15/3 NYJ +14 -105
❌4/3.81 JAX u41 -105
❌3.15/3 CLE +7' -105
❌4/4.52 NE +113
❌3.30/3 NE +2 -110
❌4/3.15 CIN +3' -127
✅3.15/3 LAC +6 -105
❌8/6.84 LAC o40' -117
✅4/3.36 WAS +3 -119
❌4/3.81 NYG u46' -105
❌5/4.40 TEAS.(JAX -7 & u48) 7-Pt
✅5/3.70 TEAS.(CHI PK & u45) 7-Pt
❌5/4.45 TEAS.(LAC +16, CIN +13 & u61') 10-Pt
❌5/5.66 TEAS.(ARI +18, NE +9, CIN +10') 7'-Pt
❌4/3.81 SEA -13' -105
✅4/3.74 SEA u42 -107
❌4/3.54 DEN u43 -113
❌10/9.52 DET +6 -105
❌4/3.64 LAR u55 -110
✅7/7.00 NO +2' +100
✅6/5.88 NO u41' -102
✅3.27/3 SF -12 -109
❌4/3.85 SF u44' -104
❌5/4.25 TEAS.(DET +13 & u61') 7-Pt
❌5/4.30 TEAS.(SEA -3', GB +8. & u52') 10-Pt
✅4/3.15 MIN +6' -127
❌5/5.77 DAL u48 -104
❌4/3.70 TEAS.(MIN +11' & u53') 6-PT

WEEK [9-26 -88.29u]
LAST [9-23 -72.29u]

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Whew, what a week. 😳😲😶

MONDAY
  • 6/3.70 PIT -162
  • 4/3.81 PIT u42' -105
  • 5/3.85 TEAS.(PIT +3' & u49') 6'-Pt
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randoms...
  • OVERS 20-9 LAST 2 WEEKS(9-6 THIS WEEK)
  • DOGS 26-21 55.3% ATS W/STARTING AFTER 7PM THIS YEAR (6-2 IN LAST 8)
  • UNDER 5-1 IN MIA L6 GAMES
  • UNDER 4-2 PIT L6 GAMES
  • UNDER 4-1 L5 MIA/PIT MATCHUPS
  • UNDER 4-1 IN PIT L5 @HOME
  • PIT 5-1 SU L6 @HOME VS MIA
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