Week Two NCAAF

CapTwo · Sep 3, 2008

Week One: 9-4 +5.3u

Week 2: 7-8 -3.4 u

Wyoming -3 1.5u
NW -6.5 1.3u TTU -9.5 1.3u
PSU -16.5 1.1u
SoCar -10 1.1u
Wake -7 (-120) 1.2u
MTSU +13(-120) 1.2u--- outright winner

Arizona -23 1u
Arizona -24 .5u

Arizona -14 1H .5 u
1H USF -7 1u
WMU -6 1u - BRUTAL BACKDOOR BULLSHIT

WVU -7 2H---- 1u

TTU/Nevada Over 67 .6u
Houston/OKie Lite Over 60 .5u

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CapTwo · Sep 3, 2008

Wyoming Back to the well. Dare we do it? Yes. Team came on strong in the 4<sup>th</sup> quarter playing how we expectd just had a shaky 1<sup>st</sup> half and some unfortunate breaks. The Wyoming score didn’t tell the tale of the game. Crum threw 2 picks, and the cowboy’s gave up a 100 yard kickoff return for a score.

AF beat 1-AA Utah state who’s last 19 straight games, and im happy they won in the fashion they did so we get a good price on the buffs. AF still cant throw the ball with bum assd shea smith at the helm. Yeah the senior who’s only playd in 2 games in his career. He’s thrown for 45 yards and last game against the lowly Utah states’only 75. One career TD pass thrown. Yes he can run, but Wyoming can shut down the option no problem.
Last week Wyoming shut down the run-Only 21 rushes for 39 yards. They Will stuff 9 in the box every time and force that joker shea smith to throw. Just think it’s a great matchup on paper for the buff’s and they owe us all from last week…. Stuff 9 in the box force this joker to throw and we’re good.
Texas Tech- Nevada was actually out-gained through the air by grambling by 22 yards lol…. but rushed for 426 yards. Again, its grambling so those numbers are skewed.
If grambling can throw for 225 yards against em, im putting Harrell down for 500. Gimme TTU and the over (probably, still looking at it).
Nevada has a very inexperienced secondary that Harrell will throw all over. They had to replace four from the secondary and brought in 3 junior college transfers this year.
NW- unreal line. Wow duke crushed the dukes last week, tough feat haha.... yeah im not sold on them.
revenge angle in play here as duke beat em in NW last year… but NW dominated and should have won.
VK and others have already pounded this game so read their thoughts. They know better then I. this one is more of a tail then anything, i dont know NW too well.

Socar- Vandy will look to continue to run the football with 5<sup>th</sup> year QB nickson, but USC did a good job against it last week winning the war upfront and only giving up 2.4 ypc (37 for 89).

In watching the game last week I really felt like the only reason socar got off to a slow start last week was some poor pass protection forcing beecher into making some throws he probably shouldn’t have.
The lack of protection just had him rattled.
Now Smelley’s back in to start as he should be which is good….O-line still a small worry as vandy supposed to bring a lot of zone-blitzes and such
(more on this game in a little time for class)…

Penn State-
Another game that’s already been discussed. So refer to other threads.
Just such a big mismatch as . Oregon state replaced 6 of their top 8 on the DL and are rolling with a couple of JC transfers upfront. PSU will dominate in the trenches and wear them down in the second half like Stanford did. Unlike that fucking idiot fulmer, paterno will not abandone the run game when its working.
Moevao is awful as we saw in the Stanford game and PSU will be bringing the pressure and forcing him into a lot of mistakes. Tough stadium/environment to play in too.

Will be back to discuss wake later...

Yanks27Sox9 · Sep 4, 2008

BOL, Cap:cheers:

Did basically the same thing with Wake tonight. :shake:

CapTwo · Sep 4, 2008

Yanks26Sox7 said:
BOL, Cap:cheers:

Did basically the same thing with Wake tonight. :shake:

Thanks big yanks, lets cash em :cheers:

Good things happen when you sleep for under 4 hours and have to wake up for a stinkin 8 am class.... you get much-needed sympathy bumps:consoling1:

kushBsmokin · Sep 4, 2008

:consoling1:

CapTwo · Sep 4, 2008

someone had to have spotted that i called wyoming both the cowboys and buffalos in same page lmao.i still confuse with CU from time to time,i dont know why-maybe because they border eachother? who knows with my ADD ass lol

Wake Thoughts:

Ramble had some good points on ole piss and I can see why people are liking them here.
They had a successful day running the football with over 200+ on the ground and spread it around nicely…But, this is Memphis who steele said was going to have a severe dropoff this year, and these guys were ranked 100<sup>th</sup> in total defense last year AND had to fill some holes this year on top of that!
Let’s not forget ole piss was actually OUTGAINED in total yards 453-438, so don’t let the score fool you.

This is a team that generally doesn’t play well on the road…. They’ve lost 13 of their last 14 away.
And they Lost last year 27-3 @ wake.
Not sold on snead either. Guy saw his first action since 2006 finally…. And important to note the run game opened it up early for him in and made it easy for him to succeed/took the pressure off, but 10-22 185 yds is nothing great, and apparently he overthrew a couple receivers. Now he’s on the road in a big game against a tough defense. Let's see how he does if wake can plug the run and put the ball in his court.

This wake defensive unit was solid year last year as 27<sup>th</sup> in the nation.. and on top of that they returned 9 of 10 for this season. Yes it was against Baylor last wek, but even on the road wake limited them to only 250 yards total and forced 5 turnovers.

I’m not buying that wake is going to consistently run the football just because it worked last year in the matchup. Why would wake not look to the air as well? While ole piss did give up 213 on the ground to Memphis, I don’t think wake will commit one way or the other and keep ole piss on their toes w/ a relatively balanced offense.
Skinner, in just his sophomore year last year, was the most accurate QB last season with a 72% completion rate.
They threw the ball 36 times against Baylor… why abandone it here?

Anyways, still considering a couple of the posted above plays.
MTSU if and when it hits +14, will be a play.
Played the TT/Nevada over @ 67 for .6unit…. For obvious reasons.

BOL fellas! and tell this bad weather to stay the fuck away and prevent putting all this road chalk we're laying in jeopardy!!! =P

CapTwo · Sep 4, 2008

kushBsmokin said:
:consoling1:

:36_11_6:

Marlo · Sep 4, 2008

Gl Cap. On the first three with ya.

Dmoney416 · Sep 4, 2008

Great thoughts Cap - appreciate it.

Great Week 1 and GL this week.

Would like to hear more about MTSU as well.

CapTwo · Sep 4, 2008

Dmoney416 said:
Great thoughts Cap - appreciate it.

Great Week 1 and GL this week.

Would like to hear more about MTSU as well.

:cheers:
Thanks DM, some teams i feel more strongly about then others.

I feel no shame in admitting i dont know too much about the NW game and am tailing a couple of others that do. Some football experts on here....
But for the most part, i feel strongly about these.

MTSU...

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In week one, they followed suit. This team squeaked by the damn blue hens at home 14-7.
One stat I was looking that that is very interesting. While UMD may have rushed for 275 yards against this 1-AA school, and outgained them in total yards 401-250, the time of possession was almost exactly even. Interesting clock management…

MTSU went against a tough troy team in weak 1. This troy team we know has a lot of depth and also a lot of speed in the right positions. Last year troy was #10 in the nation in pass defense and 57<sup>th</sup> in onverall defense, so tough to throw on them. MTSU really was stymied by that D but then really got some things going in the 4<sup>th</sup> Q as craddock got into a groove which will hopefully carry into this game.
Maryland’s D is not great, they only returned 5 starters, lost their top tackler, and with a weak and inexperienced secondary are projected to give up 240-260 ypg through the air alone.

MTSU’s main weakness lies in the secondary as they deployed 3 new starters into the mix there, and steffy is not the QB that is really going to beat you by himself. So not really worried.

Maryland is going to look to run the football as much as possible here, and I just think 13-14 points is too many in a game of this nature….

Dmoney416 · Sep 4, 2008

Understood. Really appreciate the MTSU thoughts. Leaned their way at 13.5-14 when the line came out, but have backed off as it fell to 12.5-13.

Hope it makes a push back toward 2 TDs.

CapTwo · Sep 4, 2008

Dmoney416 said:
Understood. Really appreciate the MTSU thoughts. Leaned their way at 13.5-14 when the line came out, but have backed off as it fell to 12.5-13.

Hope it makes a push back toward 2 TDs.

rayer You and me both buddy.

It hit 13.5 for a very short while last night and was tempted to buy the hook up to 14 and roll with that.... probably should have.

Now down to 13 I think it's going to sit there and probably close there.

Theres actually a lot of MTSU money coming in... would have thought UMD would be a public pick but SI has 61/39 in favor of MTSU!

~Utah · Sep 4, 2008

GL Cap

CapTwo · Sep 4, 2008

Thanks gurv.... to you too as well this week man...

Well, Isnt it funny how things unfold?

We were just discussing MTSU above and now bob is all over them, I just snagged +13 at an awful -20 juice... but i think this one is just going to keep dropping from here out. should have hit this one an hour ago and saved 10c juice... stil looking at the ML and may still add more before gametime.

added: MTSU +13 (-120) 1.2u

3rd & Long · Sep 4, 2008

Nice start Cap. :tiphat:

With you on SC, haven't locked anything else in yet. :cheers:

TarHeel7703 · Sep 6, 2008

Good thread, BOL today Cap :cheers:

nawlins51 · Sep 6, 2008

GL Cap.

CapTwo · Sep 6, 2008

tahnks guys.... very up and down day for a lot of us, been a bloodbath for some. we knew this card sucked we should have treaded lightly

very stupid bet to take WVU 2H and a costly unit on a stupid bet

think we had the right side on wake, even with the score, just a couple ghost call penalties that werent and that idiot fumble on a spin move with 4 tacklers in his area idiot cant protect the football.... we had all the momentum at that point were up 6 with the football

oh well. on to the later games.... really need NW to win. as a lot of CTG does

RambleOn · Sep 6, 2008

Cap, best of luck to ya but I fail to see how Wake was ever the right side. They were up 6 for about 2 minutes, bro. Ole Miss led or covered the ENTIRE game.

Just suck it up and come back, you're a good capper I'm sure. Listen to me in the future about Ole Miss, okay?

Just kiddin bro, BOL.

CapTwo · Sep 7, 2008

Ramble, thanks man. It was very stressfull earlier and im sorry if i got upset or was beligerent.....

what a bloodbath day it was for most of us.... and ive never been SO happy to lose 3.4 units lol.... zona really came through late and i love them
lost my 2 biggest bets of the day and to be able to salvage a medium loss was cooll....we'll get em next week

WMU was a brutal backdoor, we really deserved that one. that was probably the worst backdoor of the day.....

what a day today, this was one of the most up and down days handicapping i can remember in at least a year.... will not forget it

BOL tomorrow and next weekend and fellas, we move on...

RambleOn · Sep 7, 2008

:shake:

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