WEEK TWELVE

[mrpickem]

Even though the Titans are 7-0 ATS, the Boys are the best-performing team against the number over the last 7 games played. Titans are actually #5 as they've just squeaked by the number several times, Jets, Pats and Seahawks have performed better, yet the Jets have benched their QB this week! :shocked:

 

[mrpickem]

--- NFL ---
WEEK 11 [10-9-1 +4.68u]
SEASON [90-92 -4.56u]
LAST [2-0 +5.5u]

MONDAY
3/2.70 1H-49ERS -4½ -111
3/2.80 49ERS o42½ -107

THURSDAY

• 4/3.81 Lions u54½ -105
• 5/4.81 COWBOYS -10 -104
• 4/3.81 COWBOYS u45½ -105
• 4/3.54 PATRIOTS +3 -113
• 1.59/2 PATRIOTS +126
• 6/5.71 Vikings u42½ -105

randoms...

• DET 9-3 AS HOME DOG LAST 3 SEASONS
• DET 6-0 ATS IN NOV GAMES L2 SEASONS
• BUF 8-0 ATS VS TEAMS W/LOSING RECORD IN 2ND HALF OF SEASOM L3 YEARS
• DAL 20-8 ATS OVERALL SINCE LAST SEASON (BEST IN NFL AT 71.4%)
• DAL 8-1 ATS IN DIVISION SINCE LAST SEASON (BEST IN NFL AT 88.9%)
• DAL 13-5-1 ATS AS 7-14 POINT CHALK LAST 7 YEARS (OVER 61%)
• NYG 3-8 ATS AS 7-14 POINT DOG LAST 2 YEARS (UNDER 57.7%)
• NYG 5-10 ATS IN CONFERENCE L15
• DAL 20-7 IN CONFERENCE L27 GAMES
• FAVS 43-8 SU & 35-16 ATS ON TURKEY DAY SINCE 2004
• Boys roll ...Gints 5-1 SU as DOG this year and will go over their last season's win total with a win today. DAL 1-10 ATS in L11 Thanksgiving games, but they've dominated NYG, going 10-1 SU/9-2 ATS last 6+ years. Giants are overrated, ranking #28 in ypp margin even with a weaker schedule. The market has adjusted after G-Men were exposed vs DET a week ago. But still, the Boys are #2 in DVOA (best metric of D strength) and #5 in ypp margin. Be surprised to see NY over 13 or 14 points.
• NE ...on a short week, you have to like Belichick here vs a rookie head coach. The Pats have the #1 D in DVOA and are #5 in ST’s...both should travel well. I still believe Minny a fraud, only ranking #27 in ypp margin and the first team ever with a negative-point differential at 80% wins or better after at least 10 games! Of note: teams after losing by 35 or more have gone 31-21-1 59.6% ATS in the next game over the last 10 years. Both teams are dealing with significant injuries on OL. There under has cashed 7 straight on Thanksgiving evening. My top play of the day...under in the night game.

 

[mrpickem]

--- NFL ---
WEEK 11 [10-9-1 +4.68u]
WEEK 12 [1-5 -16.78u]
----------------------
SEASON [91-97 -21.34u]
LAST [1-5 -16.78u]

THURSDAY
4/3.81 Lions u54½ -105
5/4.81 COWBOYS -10 -104
4/3.81 COWBOYS u45½ -105
4/3.54 PATRIOTS +3 -113
1.59/2 PATRIOTS +126
6/5.71 Vikings u42½ -105
It was "Black Thursday" for me. :hitcomputer:

SUNDAY

• 5/4.76 RAVEN -3½ -105
• 4/3.81 JAGUARS u43 -105
• 4/3.81 PANTHERS +1 -105
• 4/3.81 PANTHERS u36½ -105
• 4/3.74 FALCONS +4 -107
• 4/2.29 BUCS -175
• 4/3.81 BROWNS u42 -105
• 3/2.86 BENGALS -1 -105
• 3/2.86 TITANS u43 -105
• 4/3.81 DOLPHINS u47 -105
• 4/3.60 JETS -6½ -111
• 3/2.86 JETS u38 -105
• 3/2.94 RAIDERS +4 -102
• 4/3.81 RAIDERS o47½ -105
• 3/3.15 CARDS +2½ +105
• 4/3.81 CHIEFS -15½ -105
• 3/2.83 SAINTS +9 -106
• 3/2.86 PACKERS +6½ -105
• 5/6.00 1H-PACKERS +3 +120

 

[mrpickem]

--- NFL ---
WEEK 12 [12-13 -9.51u]
----------------------
SEASON [102-105 -14.07u]
LAST [11-8 +7.27u]

SUNDAY
5/4.76 RAVEN -3½ -105
4/3.81 JAGUARS u43 -105
4/3.81 PANTHERS +1 -105
4/3.81 PANTHERS u36½ -105
4/3.74 FALCONS +4 -107
4/2.29 BUCS -175
4/3.81 BROWNS u42 -105
3/2.86 BENGALS -1 -105
3/2.86 TITANS u43 -105
4/3.81 DOLPHINS u47 -105
4/3.60 JETS -6½ -111
3/2.86 JETS u38 -105
3/2.94 RAIDERS +4 -102
4/3.81 RAIDERS o47½ -105
3/3.15 CARDS +2½ +105
4/3.81 CHIEFS -15½ -105
3/2.83 SAINTS +9 -106
3/2.86 PACKERS +6½ -105
5/6.00 1H-PACKERS +3 +120
Has a chance at a big day, but GB lost by a half and lost the 1H on the last play.

MONDAY

• 2.10/2 Colts -2½ -105
• 3.15/3 Colts u39½ -105

randoms...

PIT 8-18 ATS IN LAST 26 @NIGHT (4-9 SINCE 2020)​

IND 10-1 ATS IN LAST 11 @NIGHT (7-0 SINCE 2020)​

IND TOTALS 14-9 60.9% @NIGHT OVER LAST 7 YEARS (4-3 SINCE 2020)​

PIT TOTALS 17-99-2 47.2% @NIGHT OVER LAST 7 YEARS (7-5-1 SINCE 2020)​

IND 13-9-1 ATS @NIGHT AS SMALL HOME FAV <=4 LAST 7 YEARS (4-4 SINCE 2020)​

PIT 8-7 ATS AS @NIGHT SMALL ROAD DOG <=4 LAST 7 YEARS (2-3 SINCE 2020)​

 

[B.A.R.]

Like the colts too