Week One

[mrpickem]

Just thinking out loud. I love the Gators and I am an alumni although I never graduated. But that said, this game lines up as classic doggie spot.

Miami +7 vs. #8 Florida; game in Orlando, FL

Common speculation has the Gators D devouring Miami on Saturday evening. While their defense will be top-tier this year, Florida's victory is not guaranteed. Much of this instinct comes from the fact that the Canes' offensive scenario is very ambiguous coming into this one. Jarren Williams needed to impress his coaching staff in order to earn his spot as starter, almost everyone was expecting OSU-transfer Tate Martell to get the job. Thus far into the week, there have been speculations that Martell might see some looks as a WR. This reminds me of what Oregon did during the Mariota days with fellow QB Bryan Bennett, using them both and switching between them. The Hurrcianes's D isn’t getting enough credit themselves with the strides they have made over the summer. Not saying Miami wins this game, but they are 12-3 versus Florida since 1978. Something to think about.

Forgot to mention that Florida's defense is hurting; 5 players total have been kicked off the team so far. One starting safety, John Huggins, was dismissed for choking a girl. Linebacker Brenton Cox is said to be out for this season due to eligibility troubles. C.J. McWilliams has a ruptured Achilles and out for the season. Also, WR Tyrie Cleveland is going to play this weekend but has spent much of the offseason recovering from a broken collar bone. Food for thought.

Predict: Florida 31 - Miami 27


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[mrpickem]

I'm also starting to key in on Alabama -34. Bama has gone 4-0 ATS to start off the last 4 seasons, and it looks like there's a habitual trend of underrating just how massive the talent discrepancy is between Bama's roster and their week 1 sacrifice team.

I'm a big believer in weeks 1-2 being mostly about finding the biggest talent discrepancies and rolling with those lines. Coaches need half a season to really start figuring out their game planning, and while I don't think Saban is a great game strategist at this point in his career I do believe he puts together the head and shoulders best team in the country recruiting wise. In the meantime, Duke lost a big figure in Daniel Jones and will be leaning on a 5th year bum to lynchpin a team that looked weak down the stretch last year in an already weak ass ACC Coastal.

While lines like tOSU -27 and Nebraska -36 look attractive I don't think it's worth relying on two programs in transition when you have Alabama about to start their revenge tour with the best roster in the country top to bottom, at home. Highest chance of being a 50+ point slaughter, imo.

Likely 1H and game plays coming

 

[UTSUX]

I will be on them Gators this Weekend.

 

[mrpickem]

I will be on them Gators this Weekend.

Good luck, I'm sure I will be rooting hard for the Gators and I probably won't play the canes...Gators are the one and only team I very very rarely have action against. The way I see it is the line may be a little high, considering injuries and normal BS distractions they're dealing with.

 

[D-Woww]

tough game to bet on. neither team has much fire power on offense, so common sense would say take the points. but I could just see Miami getting completely shut down here. 26-13 is very reasonable imo

 

[mrpickem]

Let's go! :cheers3:

• 291 Florida -7 -108
• 294 Hawaii +11 -108
• 30791 Oklahoma total wins over 10½ -115
• Pac-12 Champion - Washington +275

• Florida -7 - Feel like maybe I’m overthinking this game since it’s the only major game today. Todd Grantham as DC against a freshman quarterback and first year head coach both in their first games ever should mean Florida only needs about 24 points to cover. Dan Mullen is a great schemer and even if the O line is a huge liability, he should be able to call plays around that to generate enough offense. This D is loaded even missing the 5 or 6 players suspended, injured or in dog house. Should have grabbed the under when it was around 54, but I don't see mush value at 46 although if I had to pick it, I would still go under. I'm guessing something around a 30-13 final score.
• During the first 2 weeks, teams that won their bowl game last year and are favored by at least 4 with a low total(under 50) have covered over 55% in the history of SDQL (23 years)
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• Hawaii +11 - Like the Rainbow Warriors tonight. Good QB, ton of upside offensively. Although Mcdonald loses his top receiver, his current corps are more than capable to get open against a historically struggling UA defense under Yates. HI D returns a ton from last year and cant really get any worse with that experience (9 returning starters). I like Zona but I think its gonna take awhile for Tate to get going. the P12 should be better this year (along with AZ) but I cant take em in this spot. Hawaii has covered their last 6 game hosting a P12 team and also opened up the season last year strong with almost the same team and coach. Gimme hawaii with the points in a high scoring game where both teams score near 30. Big wind on the island tonight 18mph so careful if you wanna back the over

2 futures…

• Oklahoma OVER 10.5 WINS – I believe in Lincoln Riley. Unlike a lot of new QBs to a team we obviously know what Jalen Hurts can do, plus Alex Grinch is an up and coming DC and should be able to make that unit a bit more passable. They’re heavy favorites in their non con (though vs Houston and at UCLA could at least be interesting), and OU hasn’t lost more than 1 game in the Big 12 in a few years. I’m also not super high on Texas (more top-25 than top-10 quality imo) and Iowa State is at home. With the cushion of needing 2 losses to lose this bet, I can’t turn this bet down.
• Washington to win P12 +275 - Browning is gone (along with a bunch of other playmakers like Gaskin, Murphy, etc.) but Eason has the pedigree, UW is gonna field a good defense, and the other top dog in the division: Oregon… I have my doubts about. The best teams are in the north so if UW wins their division they’ll be likely favorites in the championship game. I’ll take the plus odds.

All my plays are risking 1 unit unless indicated otherwise. Whatever a unit is to one person is totally inconsequential to someone else. I play 2.5% of my bankroll per game(risk) on college football, college hoops and MLB...less on NFL ~1.5% and even less on other sports.

 

[mrpickem]

​	[1-1] in part A of week 1​
	133 UCLA +3 -130 vs Cincinnati U 135 Georgia Tech +24 -115 vs Clemson for 1st Half 229 Gardner-Webb +20 -110 vs Charlotte for 1st Half

-I haven't put in as much time as I would have liked but I like rolling with some pups tonight.
-Clemson will wear them down by the 2H but one score and I think they cover 1H
-UCLA wins the game outright by my model...but being safe buying the point. ALWAYS buy when getting 2' or laying 3'
=teams that won less than 6 games the previous season are 60% ATS when +28 or more in week 1(I liked 1H number better as it was dropping on the game)

 

[M.W.]

I like Charlotte/G-Webb over. Will pull for you on the side.

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 139 Texas State Over 12 -110
• 140 Texas A&M -34 -105
• 143 Utah/BYU Over 49 -102
• 144 BYU +6½ -109

BYU +6½ - classic late-night Holy War, looking forward to this. These games have been relatively close the last few years, and the BYU fans will be rocking. Utah is the better team, but this game has the feels of one which will come down to a field goal and I love the Utes this year. Tough game on the road to open up the season. Also rolling with the over here, I think we see some points. Line opened at 47 sitting at 49 despite more bets being on the under. If it broke through 49 it would be a larger play.

A&M -34 - I'm banking on the fact that Jimbo Fisher doesn't let off the gas. He needs to prepare his squad for next week vs Clemson, and there's no better practice than live reps against another team.

ASU showcases super frosh qb Jayden Daniels. Very highly recruited Dual Threat QB. Also the defense (mainly secondary) is much better than people give credit for as well. A lot of them played as freshman last year and got better and better as the season went on. O-line is all seniors as well not to mention Eno in the backfield. Really depends on if Herm wants to run up this score. I feel like he might because he wants to get his true freshman qb as many reps as he can. I would lean ASU to cover but the line drop has lead to concern. Still thinking on this one at -24

 

[mrpickem]

0-6-1 last night
[1-7-1] ytd

Never mind GT couldn't score 1st and goal from the 1 and 3 of the other losses were by 1 or 2 points. Shit happens, what you gonna do...keep on keeping on.

• 147 Utah State +5½ -105
• 149 Wisconsin/South Florida Under 58½ -105
• 158 Nevada +10½ -103
• 159 Oklahoma State -13½ -105

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[Fondybadger]

BOL tonight

 

[mrpickem]

4-0 last night :breakdance:

only 1 game early

• 173 Mississippi State -19 -101

 

[mrpickem]

adding a few more

• 184 Alabama -33½ -105
• 186 Stanford -6½ -109
• 194 Arkansas State -2½ -115
• 198 Iowa -23 -105
• 266 Troy -36½ -110

 

[mrpickem]

Houston has an high powered offense, probably a better QB, and a coach in Dana that has some experience against a Lincoln Riley offense. I also think there’s a significant drop off from Baker/Kyler to Jalen Hurts. Over 3 TD's I can pass on here. I really considered the under as well, what with OU’s inexperience at O-line, new DC Alex Grinch and Dana Holgorsen’s pace and OU has to better on D...right? Hurts loses 4 starters up front and I can see him being under pressure often tonight. Holgorsen will not have this offense moving like they did last year under Kendall Briles and that will likely limit number of possessions overall. Haha I almost talked myself into it, just typing this in. On one play for me.

• 215 Houston U +22 -105

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[mrpickem]

10-10-1
GUESS THIS ONE IS TO MAKE WEEK 1 A WINNER.

• 217 Notre Dame -19 -103

On paper this should be a blow out but this line seems a bit fishy. Irish have a senior qb with 2 Sr WR's and everybody back on a very strong line. They return most of one of the best defenses in the country last year. Louisville gave up over 50 PPG the last 5 games, plus they have a new coaching staff. It may be close in the beginning but ND should eventually grind it out. Maybe 42-13 or so...I’ll be surprised if Louisville score more than 2 TD's tonight.