Week One with Marsski

Marsski

MAC Marvel
Hey fellas. Good to be back and sizing up another year of college action.

I wasn't around much last two years with graduate school killing me, but I'm all graduated now so will have more time to handicap in 15.

Starting off slow, it never seems like I do that great in week one so may not have a ton of plays like VK and Fondy...:tiphat:


As some of you know, I am someone who watches MAC football more than your average bear as an Ohio U graduate.

I do have a teaser play on the Bobcats tonight as they were sitting at 8.5 and I could move through 7 4 3...to 2.5

I took the Bobcats because I think the motivation is high with QB Derrius Vick having been the victim of a cheapshot injury in last year 36-24 Bobcats win over Idaho in Athens. It knocked him out for most of the season.

Vick is the best run-pass option that the Bobcats have and is ready to roll tonight. RB AJ Ouliette had his coming out party on the Vandals pathetic defense last year rumbling for 130 yards and a pair of scores. He returns as well this season. In general, the Bobcats have been one of the teams most snake-bitten by injuries the last several years. So I feel they are a little underrated at full strength...

If you look at Idaho, they were 112th in defense last year and are switching to a 3-4 scheme this year. They are also trying to install a vertical passing game that had Coach Paul Petrino fighting with the media in Moscow for negatively reviewing. Several players were also involved in a shoplifting incident a few weeks ago.
SO they are installing two new schemes, undisciplined players and a head coach that can't handle the INTENSE GLARE of the Moscow, Idaho media spotlight...and the Bobcats have their same coaches, and schemes, and no off the field BS. (Right, JUMP??)

Idaho Qb Linehan returns but he had 3 picks vs. OU last year including some badly forced throws. I think they will have their usual 15k in the Kibbie Dome tonight so not much of a home field.

So my play is Ohio U -2.5 which I hooked up with the Buckeyes -5 (moving through 10 7 6)

On the Bucks game, I don't think the OSU suspension losses merit the spread moving from 14ish down to 11. Bosa is the only guy that can't be replaced especially when you consider that Braxton will be in the slot and he has as much playmaking ability as Jalin Marshall. Based on the sprint competition at the spring game, I think Braxton is faster than Jalin AND Ezekiel.

I was at the Va Tech game last year in the Horseshoe and QB Brewer had a number of conversions on third and long to keep the drives going. He was picking on a young secondary...I don't think it's the same Eli Apple, Tyvis Powell and Von bell back there anymore. I think Va tech will have trouble moving the ball on the Bucks given their pedestrian run game.

I think Va Tech defense will keep them in the game, but Ohio State's offense with (I think) JT Barrett leading the way will be too much. Va Tech was able to confuse JT with blitz packages but he is way more experienced this year. I see Va Tech getting rolled in the second half once they wear down a little from lack of possession on offense. Call it 38-20ish

Anyway, seems like a gift to get to tease under 6 so I snapped it up....

Play: Ohio U -2.5/Ohio State -5 for 1 unit.


My only other play so far is Penn State -6.5 against Temple.
I think Hackenberg is ready for a bounceback year and quite frankly Penn State should be on the upswing after having to deal with the Sandusky fallout for several years with reduced schollies etc.
Everything Temple wants to do, Penn State can do with bigger and better athletes. Temple's defense is supposed to be so good (the o/u is low 40s) but they were only middling nationally.
I grabbed this because I didn't want to see it go to 7...

Play: Penn State -6.5 for 1 unit

Giving points all over the place on the road...:hang:but you gotta take the value where you perceive it exists...

Good luck this year to all.



My card goes here:

Ohio U -2.5 /Bucks -5 for 1 unit
Penn State -6.5 for 1 unit
Tennessee -20.5 for 1 unit
Mich State/WMich under 57.5 for 1 unit
ML parlay: Utah/Mich St/Illinois/Bama/Bucks for half unit to win 1.1
Boise -12 for 1 unit
ODU -5 for half unit
 
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Hey butterman...hey Dee-wight

OK, I listened to you Elbutre and at least took the Vols since it's sitting right on 3 touches...

Here's the deal with BG in Nashvegas--I just don't think they can handle the Vols at all especially in the trenches. BG usually has a rock-solid defense but only have a few guys back this year and aren't predicted to be especially talented. I think they will be in for a long day with Tennessee's rushing attack having their way with them.
In terms of against the spread, the only way for BG to stay within 3 TDs is for Matt Johnson to have a huge game and basically throw all over the Vols.

Gonna be hard to do when he's running for his life and also when I watched Johnson in 2013 he seemed to be more of a short, accurate passer vs. a guy who could air it out deep. Maybe that was a product of scheme...but I don't remember him really threatening with deep balls.
I think those Tenn corners can squat and will eventually get some picks on the short stuff. I think this one gets out of hand...

Play: Tennessee -20.5 for 1 unit
 
MSU under thoughts:
Michigan State should stay vanilla as fuck with Oregon on deck. And I have a hard time believing that a legitimate top 5 defense is going to be routinely gashed by W Michigan.
Broncos will be sky high in Kalamazoo with the big boys visiting...should make the first half low scoring before reality sets in. Even IF Western gets to 20, you still got 37 to play with Mich St who will be grinding down the clock late...see something like 31-10 and stays under easy peacy

Play: Michigan State/WMich under 57.5 for 1 unit
 
Thansk capping genius...

Teams that got to 20 on MSU last year: Ohio State, Baylor, Oregon, Nebraska, Purdue....other than Purdue you have no one on this list that is comparable to WMU's offensive talent...
 
Played a *can't lose ML parlay for half unit--pays 1.1: Utah/Mich St/Illinois/Bama/Bucks


*will lose
 
ADD: Boise -12. Just taking the revenge on the coach angle here. Boise loves beating power 5s too.

Play: Boise -12 for 1 unit
 
Thanks Alex and Fondu...

ADD: ODU -5 for half unit...fading emu here mainly. Too much offense for the Eagles who are missing defensive star.
 
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