Week One--Thursday Night Thoughts

[rochclone]

Wake Forest @ Baylor--The Demon Deacons are a 11.5 point favorite. Much is expected of the Wake Forest this year as they are in most peoples Top 25. The Bears bring a new coach in Art Briles to the table who had great success at Houston and Texas' Stephenville High School before that.
I expect a loud crowd to be on hand for Baylor's opener for the Briles regime. Expect R.Griffin (True Frosh) or more likely Kirby Freeman (Miami Fla. transfer) to start at QB. The Bears return four people on the offensive line as well as their top three recievers. Expect the Bears to throw the ball alot as the running game should be limited. The Bears only gave up 21 sacks last year. The Bears defense returns six starters from a defense that gave up 461 yds a game last year. The defensive line should be improved with three starters returning from a D-Line that gave up 4.4 yds per carry last year.

Wake Forest returns 14 starters from a (9-4) team. The Offensive Line returns only two starters but pre-season reports say Grobe loves the O-Line. The biggest concern is the Wake Forest receiving core. Kenny Moore is gone along with the TE Tereshinski. The leading returning receiver only caught 27 passes a year ago. Obviously the Deacons have a stud in Josh Adams at running back and an established QB in Riley Skinner. Although Riley Skinner completely passes at an increbile rate (72.4% last year) he still is subject to errors (12 TD'S to 13 INT's last year) The Deacon Defense returns 9 starters from a team that gave up 22.2 points last year. The D-Line is the biggest question mark with all seven starters at LB and the secondary returning.

What happens: I think Wake Forest is the superior team but there is something about laying 11.5 points on the road against a team breaking in a new regime. Wake Forest has had two fantastic teams the last two years. They averaged 21.6 points in 2006 and gave up 15.4 points. In 2007 they averaged 27.8 points and gave up 22.2 points. I think Wake Forest wins the game comfortably but by 7-10 points.

Wake Forest 27 Baylor 17 (A very small play on the Bears +11.5)

Initial Leans: With write-ups to come.

UTEP +3.0--Very small play
Troy State -6.5--Small play
Oregon State -3.0--Medium play
South Carolina -13.0--Large Play
Miami (Ohio) -4.0--Very Large Play

GL to everyone..nice to have CFB back.

 

[broadwayjoe]

i like your logic there...im taking a closer look at that wake game tonight for a buddy that asked my opinion and i mentioned some of the same things as you did. i think briles will have that offense ready to put a few pts on the board against what was a pretty average secondary last year in a running conference. i also think that wake will have a hard time exploiting baylors weak but probably improved secondary with the weapns they have so baylor might be able to hang especially if they jump on em early. no matter how much grobe likes his line i highly doubt it will match last years. one thing to also consider on the other side apart from some of the more obvious advantages is that wake will have a superior special teams unit. im not as high on wake as others are, but i still think this line is tight and you apparently do too looking at your score. gun to my head id play baylor as well...do you play totals? by looking at your final score prediction you only have 2 pts wiggle on the side of baylor, but you have a full td wiggle room if you played the under..so im just curious..

on miami oh myself so i hope we can cash that one..

 

[broadwayjoe]

id pretty much lean your way on every game now that i think about it except for utep, which i think im on my own with my buffalo ticket, at least from the people ive talked to...and i can definitely see the reasons of why one would like utep...

 

[B.A.R.]

Welcome back man...gl this season

 

[horses]

on your two biggest ones; let's start out the college football season on a positive note.

 

[TopDaddy]

GL, really liking South Carolina. I really don't see Miami OH beating Vandy, but I really haven't looked much into the game as you have. I guess I just see MAC -4 v. SEC, and that's pretty hard to digest. I bet the books get a TON of action on Vandy simply because of the conference matchup.

 

[horses]

I bet the books get a TON of action on Vandy simply because of the conference matchup.

This spread opened at Miami (Oh) -1'; money has been pouring in on the MAC team. <!-- / message -->

 

[RJ Esq]

Leaning to Oregon St -3. Not understanding the Stanford love.

 

[RetroVK]

With you on utep.

gl this year roch

 

[Moot]

I bet the books get a TON of action on Vandy simply because of the conference matchup.

This spread opened at Miami (Oh) -1'; money has been pouring in on the MAC team. <!-- / message -->

Vandy has got no money at the window.... you gotta think they will on Thursday!?!?!

I'm waiting on it to come back down...

 

[rochclone]

Here is the UTEP-Buffalo write up.

Buffalo is coming off a solid 5-7 year with Turner Gill in his 3rd year at the helm. The Bulls made solid strides putting up 24.3 points per game on offense and giving up 27.6 points per game an 8 point improvement from 2006. The Bulls return 10 starters on offense with James Starks (1103 rush yds) returning at RB and Drew Willy returning at QB. This is still a conservative offense that relies primarily on the pass and 3rd down conversions. The offense averaged 348 yds per game last year. Four of the starting offensive lineman return. They gave up 27 sacks last year.

The Defense returns eight starters . The seems a little inexperienced at LB breaking in two new starters and the defense gave up 406 yds per game last year including 231 through the air.

UTEP is coming off a dissappointing 4-8 season last year. They return five starters on offense including three offensive lineman. They lose Marcus Thomas a standout running back but will start Terrell Jackson who averaged 5.2 yds per carry on 40 touches last year. They also return Trevor Vittatoe who had a brillant Freshman campaign throwing for 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions. The offense averaged 33.6 points per game last year and 423 yds per game.

The UTEP defense returns seven starters and was horrible a year ago. 37.1 points per game and 505 yds per game. Three of the four starters on the DL return from a front that only got to the QB 16 times a year ago. A new DC comes on board from New Mexico which has been solid on defense over the last five years.

What will happen: The Bulls are a three-point favorite but I can't see it. They may win but I think the value is in the Miners. Buffalo failed against a similiar type of team last year in Baylor losing 21-34. In that game the Bulls couldn't run the ball and only had 87 yds on 27 carries. Additionally the Baylor team ran for 229 yds against the Buffalo defense. This just in Baylor was not a running team a year ago. The next issue is that for as bad as UTEP is at the end of the year they usually start very fast under Price. Last year they netted a victory against New Mexico at home to start the year. Against San Diego State in 2006 they went on the road as a 2.5 underdog and won 34-27. In the Price Era UTEP has been 10-5 ATS on the road in September and October. They have been more imprressive at 7-2 ATS as a road underdog.

UTEP 31 Buffalo 27--(UTEP +3.0 for a small wager)

 

[CASH]

nice write ups!! curious on your write ups for OState and miami ohio, i have same leans, hope for the same reasons.

 

[rochclone]

Continuing on to MTSU vs. Troy State--

The Blue Raiders open up the year as a 6.5 homedog against Troy. The Blue Raiders return 12 starters (six on both sides) from a team that went 5-7 a year ago. The Blue Raiders did go 4-3 in the Sun Belt last year. They are led by Dwight Dasher at QB who should get the nod over Joe Craddock on Thurs. The MTSU running game has been very average under Rick Stockstill averaging 135 and 131 yds the last two years. With three returning offensive lineman I don't see that number going up a whole lot. Passing game is likewise mediocore. The offense averaged 25.7 pts last year and 337 yds per game.

The Defense is coming off a mediocore near as far as yardage is concerned giving up 415 yds per game. However only 28.3 points per game. The D-Line looks to be a little weaker this year losing their star Erik Walden. However they do have experience at LB and bring in a highly rated CB Marcus Udell who originally signed with Alabama out of HS.

Troy returns 14 startes (seven on both sides) from a team that went 8-4 last year and yet was left out of the bowl picture. The Troy offense has a huge loss in Haugabook from a year ago. They also lose their top RB and top two WR. However the entire OL returns and they averaged 183 yds on the ground last year. Additionally the OL gave up only 18 sacks all year. The Troy offense that averaged 34.0 points last year and 453 yds per game may be slightly more subdued this year. However if Maurice Greer a top 30 recruit out of HS, who originally signed with Colorado, produces at RB then the QB position will have a little more time to develop.

The Troy defense gave up 24.6 points per game and 378 yds per game last year. They return five of their front seven and bring in a Highly recruited JC cornerback in Michael Ricks. They should be a very good defense this year.

What Happens: Troy demolished MTSU last year 45-7 in a game in which the Blue Raiders were completely overmatched. I know that the Troy losses on offense will hurt but they (and FAU) are clearly the best two teams in the Sun Belt. (Think North Texas about five years ago) I think Troy wins this comfortably 31 to 17. Troy has been 15-8 ATS the last two years. Troy State -6.5 for a small play.

 

[rochclone]

Stanford opens up the season at home against Oregon State on Thursday. The Cardinal return 16 starters (7 on off, 9 on def) from a team that surprisingly went 4-8 last year. The Offense averaged only 19.6 pts per game last year and averaged 322 yds per game. Including only 111 yds per game on the ground. Stanford returns only two starting offensive linemen and they gave up a whopping 48 sacks last year. Pritchard returns at QB however he only completed 50% of his passes last year with a 5:9 TD/INT ratio. The Cardinal might have a stud in Toby Gerhart at RB but he might not be able to find many holes behind that line.

The Stanford defense improved last year giving up 28.3 points per game and 435 yds per game. They return all three starting LB's and most of the defensive line. The Secondary has three starters back but gave up 266 yds through the air last year.

Oregon State opens on the road. The Beavers return seven starters on offense and three on defense from last year's 9-4 team. The offense averaged 27.8 points a game on only 372 yds last year. The Offense turned the ball over early in the year with terrible QB play from Canfield and Moeavo. The Beavers also lose Bernard at RB but should have a much better receiving core with the return onf Sammie Stroughter. The QB play is a question mark.

The Oregon State defense gave up 22.6 points a game last year and only 307 yds per game. Including 71 yds per game on the ground. The Defense replaces the entire front seven. However there is alot of backup experience on the D-Line and Oregon State traditionally is tough against the run. In the last six years they have given up 71, 110, 108, 117, 84 and 94 against the run. The Linebacking core is a concern but the secondary looks solid with three starters returning including Brandon Hughes who is a great CB.

What will Happen: I'm not a huge fan of the OSU offense as I don't trust Canfield or Moeavo. However it is tough to ignore the fact that OSU just finds ways to win against teams of lesser talent and with an below average offense. The losses last year were to Cincy, Arizona State, USC and UCLA. They will be able to shut down the Cardinal rushing attack and force multiple sacks (OSU defense had 44 sacks last year) and they should be able to grind it out on the ground with Jacquizz Rodgers a true freshmen and Stroughter will help the receiving game. OSU is 6-3 SU on the road in Pac-10 play over the last two years. OSU -3.0 is a gift unless the Stanford Offense surprises. Oregon State 27 Stanford 17 (Oregon State -3.0 for a medium play)

 

[O-State]

Wake 1st half -6.5 might not be a bad play. Last year vs. Army and Duke the Deacons got out to comfortable leads and then the dog came back second half.

---One thing making me look at that Wake game is what do we know about Wake D,---they get picks and turnovers and Alphonso Smith gets 6.

Baylor had 10, yes like 10 turnovers in their last scrimmage and last year, were #119 in turnover margin. Wake was 19.

I mean that's like a matchup where a team rushes for 300 and the other team gives up 300 on average. Baylor will pass against Wake's strength, and on top of that the Baylor kids are still feeling the system out, wow.

----I think 1st half is only play though because if Wake gets big lead they'll fall asleep its their MO.



----This Stanford Oregon State game. I liked Stanford initially due to mass exodus of OSU defense. But damn Stanford is a good offense to have young pups because Stanford can't move the football. And then OSU O vs. Stanford D is the difference. OSU looking very Sharp passing Moeava personally I didin't think much of him last year but that offense is clicking.

---Troy and Temple kind of worry me as road favs. (and i'm playing them). I just don't follow those programs as much but everything points in their direction to win, Army new offense is one change concerning me in Temple game.

-------I wasn't going to touch that Wake game but man I'm really eying it now I think it's one were that turnover margin says, you can play it and if doesn't work you can't kick yourself in the head because the #'s were there.

The Oregon State game you can kick yourself in the head if they lose because you can point to that experience factor and go what the hell was I doing.

 

[rochclone]

N.C. State hosts South Carolina on ESPN tonight and the Gamecocks are favored by 13 points. The Wolfpack are in their second year under O'Brien and return 10 starters from last year's (5-7) team. The Offense was putrid for the Wolfpack last year averaging 20.8 pts per game and putting up only 335 yds per game. The Wolfpack were also -16 in turnovers for the year. O'Brien gives the reigns to RS Frosh Russell Wilson tonight as he heads into a difficult Columbia, S.C. The O-Line returns three starters from last year and Andre Brown returns at RB. However the Wolfpack will likely have to throw the ball with the RS Frosh to be successful.

The Wolfpack have only 4 starters back from a defense that gave up 28.3 points per game and 394 yds per game. The most inexperience comes at LB where the Wolfpack will be breaking in three new starters. The Secondary seems solid.

The Gamecocks return 17 starters (7 on offense and 10 on defense) from last year's 6-6 team. The Offense last year averaged 26.1 points a game and 372 yds of offense. Most of that yardage coming through the air. Additionally the O-Line gave up 31 sacks last year. However four of the O-Line starters return and this appears to be one of the most improved O-Lines in the SEC and Nation. Mike Davis will get the start at RB and all the Gamecocks need is a solid QB to get the ball to Kenny McKinley the stud WR.

The Defense should be very good. Through a rash of injuries a year ago the Defense yielded 23.5 points per game and 378 yds although 209 of those yds came on the ground. Three defensive linemen return and no LB core is more solid than Eric Norwood and Jasper Brinkley. The secondary is experienced and talented led by Captain Munnerlyn and Emanuel Cook.

What will Happen: I think the story is the South Carolina defense versus the youth of N.C. State at QB and O-Line. I think the 78,000 that Wilson will appear in front of tonight will cause some turnovers and lead to some short fields for the Gamecocks. This game could be ugly early. Standard procedure for South Carolina is to see them start the season quickly and then fade late. I think Spurrier and this squad are looking for redemption after the disappointing finish last year. They get that redemption on National TV tonight.

South Carolina 34 NC State 13--South Carolina -13.0 for a large play.

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

South Carolina 34 NC State 13--South Carolina -13.0 for a large play.

Good to see ya around, bro. On it... Hope ya kill it this season

 

[rochclone]

The final game tonight features my strongest play.

The SEC courtesy of Vanderbilt heads on the road tonight to Oxford, Ohio to face Miami. The Commodores return nine starters from last year's team that went (5-7). The Commodores averaged 21.7 points a game last year including 326 yds on offense. They did this with 10 returning starters on offense. This year only three starters return and the entire offensive line is new. Sacks totals were only 17 last year that number will surely increase. Additionally the Commodores lose Earl Bennett and Jackson-Garrison the leading receiver and running back.

The Defense returns six starters that gave up 22.6 yds per game and 325 yds per game. Only two of the front seven return and although the secondary will be strong the D-Line averages only 263 pds and should be susceptible against the run.

Miami returns 17 starters from a year ago. 8 of those on offense from a team that lost in the MAC Title game and finished 6-7. Three offensive linemen return as well as the top seven receiving targets. The Redhawks will give the ball to Clay Benton a talented RS Frosh after Raudabaugh was average a year ago. Expect Thomas Merriweather to carry the ball 15-20 times as he is a talented true soph.

The Defense returns nine starters and gave up 25.6 pts and 376 yds last year. The Defense did get to the QB 32 last year. The top seven tacklers return on defense including the entire LB core. Clayton Mullins is a beast at OLB after posting 143 tackles a year ago.

What will Happen: Miami of Ohio will be ready for this game. A chance to beat an SEC team. More importantly Vanderbilt is just too inexperienced on the offensive line to be consistent. I think the Miami Ohio defensive front which averages 284 pds gets continued pressure on the Vanderbilt QB and without a reliable target like Earl Bennett I have a feeling that Nickson will really struggle tonight. I think Miami will coast in this one and that they are actually the more talented and much more experienced squad.

Miami (Ohio) 27 Vanderbilt 14--Miami (Ohio) -4.0 for a large play.

GL to all, the early leans for Friday are:

Temple -7.0
SMU +3.5
However both (if played) will be small.