***Week One Prop Week Discussion***

I wish ravens were playing a team I thought could score some points. I’d love to play lamar over 212.5 pass yards but not sure if he throws much after half and who knows how many short fields he gets after stroud turnovers? Maybe 1.5 td passes? I dunno yet. Maybe dobbins rush yards but ravens backs can be a pain. For some reason I don’t see a number for flowers! Man they piss me off, he has a td number but no ysrds? If you can get him I’d assume it be in 30s and I’d take it, tempted to hit his td prop at +205!!

It scares me needing watson to play decent for this to cash but I’m a pretty big fan of playing Cooper over yards at home. Think I saw 58.5, If ya trust watson should be easy.

Pickens ov 42.5? Yes please, dude about to be a star!

I guess McLaurin playing but I heard he has turf toe, that shit don’t just go away, it lingers! Don’t count on him being out there a ton or if he is maybe more a decoy? Howell and Dotson seem to be developing great chemistry! Ov 44 5

Carr over 244.5 passing, over 1.5 tds, and olave ov 67 think I saw, not a bad little sgp.

How In gods name they have Zeke rush yardx, mac Jones rush yseds, but no Stevenson?!?!? I have no interest in pats offense. For whatever reason I never been able to get comfy w prop unders, maybe one day but why mess w something that been working? Anyways I love the plan eagles have went with drafting as many Uga defensive players they could! I expect this to be a very strong unit, mac n cheese w some very average type wr’s and tight ends I don’t see pats offense doing much of anything!
 
is there anything more annoying than listening to some random pod and at end they start spouting off several guys you like?!!! Lol. I dunno if it as bad it feels but I could do without that!
 
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Play #1

Amari cooper ov 56.5 rec yards

This is freaking nuts! I know I often talk bout how I bet far less on nfl than college but this worth a ncaa sized play! I know above I mentioned my biggest concern was watson, not cause I think he finished, I just don’t freaking know! Seems like he way to young and wasn’t even a injury for him to never get back to being that dude! Then again it probably fair to say he has a questionable character at best, it could be giving this dude 250 mil he gets no matter what wasn’t a great idea!

Now w that said he certainly should be little better than last season! Cooper played 3 home games after watson took over as starter and sure enough, he cleared this number in all 3! 2 of those games he smashed this number, the 3rd he just cleared it but he did none the east and while I admit I’m not sure if watson ever be elite I also think he has no choice but to be better this year. Last year he didn’t get to play till everyone else been playing 3 months, the offense wasn’t built for him and obviously there a lot of rust/catching back up to game speed after 2 years off! Basically it has never really mattered who throwing cooper the ball, at home he is almost always elite, on the road he often no shows to the point you not w db sure he on the field. Very strange but something that has worked out well for me the last few years!

If none of that was convincing enough you may have noticed the bengals lost quite a bit off their d including one their better corners, and just to drive home his home/road splits. In 2 games vs cincy last year at home he had 5 catches for 132, at cincy 2 for 42! It could lose, dude could break his leg on the 1st play! But if you not playing this I dunno how to help ya cause it without a doubt a winning play!
 
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Kirk Cousins under 259.5 passing yards looks interesting to me, but possibly not good enough to make a play on it. Bucs shouldn't push Kirk and they have a solid cornerback duo. But this sort of thinking can apply to every Bucs' game, and I think there are better opponents than Vikings without Cook and well above-average pass-catching weapons.
 
Play #2

Pickens ov 42.5 rec yards

I dunno why it working out this way, maybe it the current landscape where there not many running backs you can trust to get the work we need and so far the guys who yardage looks short to me been mostly wrs!! Pickens is just next in the long line of fantastic wrs Steelers draft and develop! This kid is special!

Pickett loves to just chuck it up to him and why not, he has a insane catch radius, kid goes up and takes it from anyone! Keep in mind he was a r eweek 3 he went well over 50 in 9 of last 14. In 2 od Steelers 3 preseason games he caught a 30 yard pass on his 1 target! This number seems low to me, maybe it cause these rain forecast but far As I can tell it should be mostly dry in Pittsburg during this game. Imo it a foregone conclusion he will get multiple targets down the field, he could cash this on one catch. Realistically he over this number w 2 catches and I think he catches 4-5 balls and at least doubles this number, I damn sure don’t think Steelers will be driving the field on niners by running it down their throat!
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Kirk Cousins under 259.5 passing yards looks interesting to me, but possibly not good enough to make a play on it. Bucs shouldn't push Kirk and they have a solid cornerback duo. But this sort of thinking can apply to every Bucs' game, and I think there are better opponents than Vikings without Cook and well above-average pass-catching weapons.de
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I hate Faker, always have, but you really don’t think those wrs tampa got can’t torch Vikings crappy d. What team wasn’t able to push Vikings last year? I don’t think they have or will be blowing anyone out anytime soon. Or it just could be I’m allergic to playing prop unders! Lol. I do hate cousins and baker but the weapons on the outside for both teams kinda screams to me this gonna be a rather high scoring, high volume passing game for both sides.
 
Im torn if Likely worth playing with ravens main man Andrews out? It appears this new look offense still likes using the te quite a bit, I don’t think either these 2 played in preseason but the te who got the work had 4 for 45 and 2 for 61 the last 2 preseason games. Think I saw likely sitting around 37 and I’m kinda thinking that number will go up as folks wake up to the news Andrews is out. So In that sense seems like a smart play as I think we will beat close but far as this game goes Im not sure I can’t trust any pasx catcher until we see Lamar operate the offense, this matchup sucks in the sense I don’t really expect ravens will have to pass much in the second half.
 
Really think dobbins is the play for ramens but think im gonna stick to playing him in dfs, ravens running backs a pan in the ass, Harbaugh doesn’t have any problem rotating 2-3-4 of them in any given game, and once again if ravens up big in 2nd will they reduce dobbins work load and save for tougher games?
 
This sucks Miami is playing chargers. By now everyone should know I love playing running backs vs chargers, another part of Staley incompetence is his retarded idea that running the ball is less efficient so hie generally plays formations that encourage teams to gash them all day! Only problem is I got burnt in this matchup last year as McDaniel refused to run the damn ball! Did he learn from that or is he working out of the same “analytics for dummies” book that Staley basis he philosophies out of?!?!?!
 
Dotson ov 43.5, redc yard

Think he could become Howell fav target, especially early while McLaurin has turf toe, that shit don’t go away! He might be out there but I don’t think he be able to carry the pass attack.
 
@VirginiaCavs I dunno if this bad or good for me but you actually got me to think bout that stupid bucs/Vikings game and just played over 46, lol. I just dunno how all the wrs in thus game don’t go off??
 
I dunno if we count team totals as props but they listed under “team props” so I’m gonna roll w it!!

Patriots tt under 20.5

Yes obrien is a upgrade at oc over 2 dumb ass dc’s running the offense but let’s be real here, obrien is only a upgrade as in he somewhat competent! Guy never been a particularly good coach, he just been part of the good ol boy network w the right friends to land gigs most anyone could succeed in! He had Brady to run the offense, when he got a HC job he had watson playing street ball to compensate for his crappy play calling, then saban gifted him a offense that basically ran itself with superior players!! He not some genius who gonna make these average offensive players great!

I can’t see pats scoring much on the Georgia north d in Philly, talk about a smart gm! It’s crazy so many ppl bad at this team building thing! Just keep drafting defensive players that played for one the greatest college d’s of all time! Genius! Philly d should be good cause all their players good and they all winners!
 
Dotson and pickens seem crazy low to me. Pickens playing a tough d but it don’t matter he can go up and get it vs anyone, 2 guys I think bout to break out and 44 ysrfs cashes then
 
Rachaad White o2.5 receptions and Michael Thomas o3.5 receptions by top 2 props. Aaron Jones yards vs. awful Bears defense also another one I like a bit. Gambling on Nico Collins assuming Texans will be behind and passing at some point
 
rambler882 said:
Rachaad White o2.5 receptions and Michael Thomas o3.5 receptions by top 2 props. Aaron Jones yards vs. awful Bears defense also another one I like a bit. Gambling on Nico Collins assuming Texans will be behind and passing at some point
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There a good chance I end up on Jones in some fashion. Sounds like packers running out of wrs so somebody gonna have to move the ball, torn between rush or receiving? If Doubs is also out along with watson I could see them playing Dillan more as the traditional back w Jones on field at same time as more a pass catcher. Havnt really worked out how I think they gonna play without top 2 guys on outside?
 
booksbestfriend said:
T Etienne over 14.5 rec
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Low for him, I like it. Wonder if it cause with Ridley also there now they had to drop some others numbers? I wouidnt think it effect Etienne work in pass game and I know his number was mostly in 20s last year cause i played him a lot! I think I might join you here, I def wanted a piece of jags offense but wasn’t completely sure how to go about it. I love Ridley but think it tough with 3 wr and a te that could go off any given day. Think pretty safe bet Etienne gets a check down or 2 and maybe a screen set up, only takes one catch for him to possibly get it, I be surprised he didn’t have at least few catches.
 
2daBank said:
There a good chance I end up on Jones in some fashion. Sounds like packers running out of wrs so somebody gonna have to move the ball, torn between rush or receiving? If Doubs is also out along with watson I could see them playing Dillan more as the traditional back w Jones on field at same time as more a pass catcher. Havnt really worked out how I think they gonna play without top 2 guys on outside?
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Dillon and Jones split carries near 50/50 so fair to assume that
 
rambler882 said:
Dillon and Jones split carries near 50/50 so fair to assume that
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Well yes that not exactly what I was trying to say.. I’m wondering if they play then together with Jones getting motioned around since he has solid route running skills. I’m totally guessing. I just think they could really use his help in passing game while having Dillan out there at same time as the rushing threat it would give besrs more to worry bout and Dillon could end up w more carry’s while Jones targets increase to piick up slack in passing game., or I’m crazy anc they will just run same offense and count on backup wrs. That doesn’t seem like a great idea to me but I sometimes get myself into trouble when I try and play “what I would do” with game plans! Lol.
 
I dunno if they put it up later or I didn’t see early this morning but couldn’t resist adding

Zay flowers ov 39.5

Im not sure if this was a good idea, lol. I think he awesome after the catch which why I like him today. Few short passes and he can hit this number on any one of them. It is a little strange that his number is higher than obj or Bateman, I used to be so high on Bateman but dude always hurt! Flowers a much different receiver than either those guys so I think he have a roll and maybe it telling his number higher than those other 2 guys! Or I’m just a sucker, lol. I havnt checked latest weather report but I figured if it was raining again he be the guy likely to catch something short and get the yac! We shall see.
 
I like Addison ov 39.5 Also but im already way past what I planned on playing far as amount of plays and money! And I know if morning goes bad I won’t be done, I really try to avoid this week 1 and lot of nfl weeks but the degen got out the cage! Lmao
 
I’m just doing dfs lineups from here on out. I shoulda pivoted to that after the 1st 5 or so plays! Lol
 
Anthony Richardson over 50.5 rushing yards looks good. Jags have struggled vs running QB's -- Streveler ran for 54 late in the season after coming in for Zach Wilson. DJ ran for 100+ etc. Jalen was limited running-wise in early-season Eagles win but he's the exception. Lamar ran for 89 on 14 etc.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Anthony Richardson over 50.5 rushing yards looks good. Jags have struggled vs running QB's -- Streveler ran for 54 late in the season after coming in for Zach Wilson. DJ ran for 100+ etc. Jalen was limited running-wise in early-season Eagles win but he's the exception. Lamar ran for 89 on 14 etc.
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Not to mention AR can hardly rely on his shitty passing!
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Anthony Richardson over 50.5 rushing yards looks good. Jags have struggled vs running QB's -- Streveler ran for 54 late in the season after coming in for Zach Wilson. DJ ran for 100+ etc. Jalen was limited running-wise in early-season Eagles win but he's the exception. Lamar ran for 89 on 14 etc.
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The most shocking thing about this day for me is even tho I went little nuts with plays (that wasn’t shocking! I withdrew big chunk of yesterdays winnings before I even thought bout makinb a bet!). The crazy thing is no qb rush yards which typically one my stronger props! You don’t even gotta worry bout sacks in nfl and here I am w no qb rushing! Now that I think bout I don’t think I played any yesterday either other than gibbs early then deciding I liked Nebraska rb way more! Shocked gibbs just barely made it!
 
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