Week One Plays/Leans

[TroyStacks]

Wel I guess I'll be the first dork who alredy capped much of week 1. Initial leans no plays as injuries can occur in preseason.....

NO...14-5 ATS AD 6+
IND...17-6 ATS SEPT.,12-5 ATS v. non-conf---need to see under 7 or I look at the dog more

DEN
BUF...7-3 ATS as non-div HD of 3+---always seem to show up against the good teams

PIT...17-6 ATS as div away team,5-1 ATS @ CLE,7-0
ATS SU and ATS in series---especially if Quinn starts
CLE...8-16 ATS v. div foe,14-7 ATS sept dog

TEN...8-13 ATS in div play
JAX...15-5 ATS @ home in sept,9-1 ATS in home
openers,8-0 ATS in season openers,HT is 11-4 ATS---need to see a little lower and I might bite this will def go in a teaser

CAR...18-10 ATS as div AD,15-7 ATS away,12-6 ATS as
sept dog---stats say carolina head say STL more research here
STL...

PHI...14-7 ATS as NFC AF
GB...6-3 ATS as sept HD---feeling they get it done with McNabb out lets see his status

MIA...7-2 ATS as dog v.NFC
WAS...5-12 ATS as a sept fav,2-10 ATS as first gm as
fav---gotta go skins despite convinving stats but i want a good number here

NE...2-5 ATS in season opener,18-8 as div fav,7-2
ATS v. NYJ---gotta be pats under a TD
NYJ...12-6 ATS @ home,0-8 ATS hosting NE,2-12

TB...3-15 ATS away v. non-div foe
SEA...3-9 ATS in season openers,11-5 ATS as a non-
conf HF---sea at home opening day shoudl give tb lots of trouble

CHI...4-9 ATS away v. AFC,10-5 ATS as dog in sept
SD...12-3 ATS @ home as a fav
*PLAY AGAINST superbowl losers in sept 18-8---LT LT LT LT oh yeah LT

DET...
OAK...7-14 ATS as fav in home opener,5-13 ATS as fav---fuck if I am touching this game right now hahaha lets say Det as of now

NYG...
DAL...10-5 ATS @ home v NYG,O/U is 2-12 when dal is
fav,HF is 14-8 ATS s/'89---under and DAL teased perhaps

BAL...15-8 ATS in first div gm,12-4 as div AD
CIN...fav is 9-2 ATS in series,14-32 ATS @ hm in
sept
*teams with 3 MNF gms go 9-1 ATS in gm1(BAL)---love balt this yr watchout

AZ...
SF...fav is 5-2 ATS in series,hm team 9-5 ATS in
series, SU winner is 14-3 ATS in series---is there any doubt

 

[frankiegotti]

i like that dallas pick.

i am going the other way on the cleveland game, i like the offensive line moves made through draft and free agency. I think they will be a vastly improved team. I may go moneyline on cleve here. Although in all fairness i am a cleveland fan, but i am trying to be as objective as possible.

BOL troy.

 

[G-Man]

Stacks.

Nice to see you getting a jump on the season.

I'll be along shortly myself. Its gonna be a helluva year.

:cheers:

 

[brewer]

danka for info

 

[C-Gold]

Why do you like that ancient history so much. It is not like it was those players... when you say dallas is 10-5 in their last 15 home blah blah games, your basically talking about laundry...

the uniforms...

it wasn't with Romo at QB, it was with Qunicy Carter, Bledsoe, Anthony Wright, Ryan Leaf or some other former quarterback.

 

[TroyStacks]

well obviously it works for one...two its only a part of my handicapping and third these are just leans. this is justifiable rigth here anyways your proved it for me. over all those qbs its still a predictable trend. thanks

 

[Schrute]

I like Washington to win by 2 scores against the Dolphins. Campbell should be ready to go and I really feel like he has what it takes to be a good game manager in the NFL and maybe even a little more. I think he'll make good decisions, maybe an occasional big play with his feet and be able to lead the Skins down the field methodically. The Redskins defense shouldn't have any problem holding the Fins under 10 points or so. I've got to look at it a good bit more myself and it will be interesting to see how the preseason unfolds but I wouldn't be shocked at all to see the 'Skins win the NFC East honestly. That division is going to be a wash this year and the Giants have already lost one big player and a second may follow suit very shortly. Also, the Cowboys are sketchy at best under Wade Phillips. I just don't have faith in him. I guess that was a pretty longwinded way to say that I love the Skins in Week 1

 

[C-Gold]

My advise is that it is useless for handicapping. There are so many freaking stats out there that you could obviously find " the right stats" to support your case for both sides of any coin out there.

If you want to say that Quincy Carter led the cowboys over Kerry Collins and the Giants 6 years ago, that is fine, but it is an irrational reason.

The only signifigance I would see, would be for example when the cowboys were always beating the redskins, because it was some rivalry.

I understand the cowboys and giants are too, but 10-5 at home isn't very signifigant.

when the cowboys beat washington like 13 out of 15 times that is, because they weren't even the better team half of the time.

the only time i throw the (history) out the window, is when the stats are obviously not random, or anything out of the ordinary.

playing .600 ball in such a small sample size, isn't some dominant trend, and especially when it was with completly different players.

I don't care if the last time the Vikings played the chiefs in 1920 that fran tarkenteon and the vikings won and covered etc.

not picking on you, and I know you said that this is just a "tool" for you, but I am suggesting to now waste your time on historical records.

Think romo vs manning, not qdawg vs drunk kerry collins, that is all

 

[C-Gold]

careful dwight

campbell wasnt any better than brunell last year, and neither are as good as a healthy trent green.

washingtons defense was a complete joke last year.

 

[TroyStacks]

well we differ on opinons but i disagree with you here some team can cover at home against the div whuile others can't. things like that are not coincidence and either are on of the stats i presented these situations that come up every single year and hit 70% plus are not by mistake. in just like college football bowl season....i can blindly handicapp them based on spreads and hit at the very least 60-63% based on stats that go back sinc elines came out. and 75% of the tim i do that in bowl season except when tcu plays n.ill laying 2 tds hahahaha.

 

[C-Gold]

I could flip a coin 20 times, and get 12 head and 8 tails... what is your point? The sample size is too small.

Probability is probability, reality will deviate from probability, but that doesn't change the underlying probability of an event occuring.

If Fran Tarkenton, Oj Simpson, Kerry Collins or some other old timer covered against some other guy, it doesn't change the probability of Romo vs Eli Manning.

It would be like saying Drew Brees won't win the superbowl as a staring quarterback, because drew bledsoe didn't and they both have the same first name.

Kerry Collins wore the Giants uniforms, and Eli Manning does, so since Kerry Collins couldn't cover in dallas, eli manning wont.

You could believe that stuff if you want to, or the horoscopes in the newspaper, but I wouldn't advise it.

 

[Mags]

Pittsburgh -3x
NE -5x

On them already.

GL

 

[TroyStacks]

i think divisional games are abetter way to use these stats personally teams play different in those games

 

[C-Gold]

So if Drew Bledsoe lost to Vinny Testaverde and the Jets, than Tom Brady and BB will lose to Mangeni and Pennington?

Do you understand the point I am trying to make. Those stats = laundry.

 

[TroyStacks]

no but they will cover lol

 

[EDizzle]

Nice hit on Pitt last night, you going to cave in again and take thursdays game? lol

Also you going out to vegas soon?

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

McNabb will be ready by week 1 and that line will be 4.5 by gametime. Eagles will win that game by double digits. The D is much improved this year, and the offense will be as good as that line sticks around.

 

[TroyStacks]

Nice hit on Pitt last night, you going to cave in again and take thursdays game? lol

Also you going out to vegas soon?

i'll play the preseason for sure still lookin at some things...vegas in october for my bday you should come bro it'll be crazy

 

[husky17]

i'll make a play on the giants/dallas after i see some preseason.. i look at these two as up-in-the air teams as to if they can have a winning season or not.. a lot of unanswered questions go along with both, so the preseason should wade out some of those issues up in the air..

cowboys- Hows Tony Romo goign to play? is the game vs phi going to haunt him? can he shake off his rocky second half of the year and play like he did at the beginning?

Whats their run game going to be like? Julius Jones is supposedly favored a lot more by their new coach, so their run game might be a little different with Marion Barber getting less carries..

Whats their defensive look going to be like?


Giants- Can Eli finally have a breakthrough year? hes been good at times, but was still too inconsistent last year.

Brandon Jacobs has looked phenominal at camp, is he going to be able to translate that into game time success?

The wide reciever corp could be one of the best in the league: Burress, an aging Toomer, lightening quick Sinorice Moss, and a very solid rook in Steve Smith-- will they deliver? Will Shockey stay on the field enough this year to actually make the impact hes capable of?


Defense- A lot of questions here.. Does Strahan come back? if not, can Justin Tuck fill enough of the void.. LB Kawika Mitchell is newly signed from the cheifs and is supposed to have been great so far in camp.. Antonia Pierce has always been solid in the middle spot; the catalyst is going to be Mathias Kiwuanka (sp.) and how he adapts from DE to outside LB.. hes very athletic and could end up being great, but how long till he fully adapts?

Aaron Ross from Texas immediately improves the secondary, but will probably start as a Nickel alongside corey webster and an aging sam madison.. these guys really have to step it up this year and t hey have been feeling the heat so they could show some improvement..

Will Demps has been bumped from the first team and James Butler has replaced him.. Gibril Wilson has also switched safety positions so he'll see more of a centeralized area of the field, which will help the D..



A lot of questions surrounding both teams, and we'll just have to wait and see how it comes together for them