Week One NCAA Plays...

JumpOnBoard

CTG Partner
CTG Posted

06-07 NCAA: +47.4 total units
07-08 NCAA: +24.25 total units

08-09 NCAA:

Sides:
Totals:
1st Halfs:
2nd Halfs:

Teasers:


Profitable year last year, but definetely was a grind. Started off really fast and that helped through the year. I've got those first bet jitters for footsies, which makes me all warm and fuzzy inside. I try to give writeups for every play, but on occasion add plays w/out. Try to limit that. GL this year guys. My card isn't full yet, but I have two plays I've locked in tonight and wanted em up. Saturday card will be added. Like most everyone on CTG, will update the first thread window with plays and writeups and document the plays later in the thread w/ no edits...I don't flat bet and never have and never will...but most plays are 1-2 units..an occasional bigger one..


Thurs Sides:

Oregon St -3 -105 (1 unit).....it's an unpopular play vs the rest of the board but I can't help it...if the OL injuries weren't so entrenched, I would play it for two units...two starters on the OL are out and the depth is hurting, but still 26 starts at RT, 13 at LG, and couple starts at RG..Stanford is believed to be up and coming and sure eveyrone remember the USC and Cal wins of the four last year and I'm sure they are, but Riley is consistently underrated every single year...this team wins 9 and 10 games and nobody gives a shit eveyr year...the front 7 is all new on defense for OSU, but the two DE's are very good and probably will be all conference...Tree rushed for -8 yds last year @ OSU...I don't think they can take advantage of the youth that OSU offers up front...Stanford does have a good DL and had six sacks vs a much more experience Beav OL last year, so that's a concern...I like Moevea more than Canfield, so no issues for me there...Bernard is gone, but Redshirt frosh McCants, and true frosh speedster Jo Jo Jizz are heralded...Sammy is back and all the skill outside is back...huge advantage for the Beavers in that dept...if the RT is avg tonight, Beavers win by 10 IMO.....most underrated coach and team every year...L


Troy -6.5 -110 (1 unit)...this game has been adequately covered both ways by VK and Nropp, so not going into depth here....injureis abound on MTSU and I think Troy is far superior up front on both sides of the ball...losing an experienced QB hurts, esp starting out on the road in league, but Troy reloads more than any other team in the SunBelt...not getting the best of the number either...speed of the defense dominates the game IMO and I think 24-13 type affair is in store...another single units play..W


Friday Side:

Temple -7 -110 (1 unit)....cause Dadd says so..W


Saturday Sides:

Oklahoma St -7 -110 (2 units) W

TCU -6.5 -110 (2 units) W

Mississippi -7.5 -110 (1 unit) W

LSU -15 -110 (2 units) W



6 point Teaser:

Risked 1 unit to win 3 units

Temple -1
Ole Miss -1.5
Pitt -7 L
Bama +10.5
 
Last edited:
GL Jump.

Any opinion on that total in the Oregon St/Stanford game at 45.5?

I noticed it has gone under 5/7 years.
 
GL Jump.

Any opinion on that total in the Oregon St/Stanford game at 45.5?

I noticed it has gone under 5/7 years.
I'm pretty positive Tree's defense is ahead of their offense. I think the same is probably true for the Beavers too, just based on the fact of timing with a green Oline and two new tailbacks, even with the front seven uncertainty....

The number is low though, and any turnovers or special teams plays probably kill the total.

I don't think it has much value honestly..esp w/ OSU's special teams ability on returns...the kicking game is a tossup for them w/ the loss of Lou Groza Jr though.
 
Thanks dude...sister kisser last night...

That's a fun night in Ohio.

Oregon St was the right side statistically, but not on the scoreboard.

One of these days, they'll teach receivers not to stretch out when they have no chance of getting in.
 
6 point Teaser:

Risked 1 unit to win 3 units


Temple -1
Ole Miss -1.5
Pitt -7
Bama +10.5


Fits good criteria as it takes these games past key numbers...don't like Bama at under a TD, but on neutral field I think their D is good enough to do it...I think they have a decent shot at the upset...BGSU will be in the Mac East race, but see BC game at BC last year...they are plenty capable of laying an egg....I don;'t think Temple nor Mississippi lose their games, hence under a FG...
 
Plays for Saturday are:

Oklahoma St -7 -110 (2 units)

TCU -6.5 -110 (2 units)

Mississippi -7.5 -110 (1 unit)


That's it...extremely small card week one...that makes six bets on sides for the week and not one damn dog....might be a first for me...my other three leans for Saturday were ECU, MSU, and Fresno..small reasons why I elimanated them..

ECU- just never got the 10 i wanted...also injuries are a concern..starting OL out...starting RB out..when you are replacing Johnson, that's a big concern...also, starting placekicker out..that's a huge concern to me when I think VT's defense will hold them to a couple FG attempts in this game...Bud Fosters group has had a top 8 defense four years straight and he says this is his fastest, most athletic group

MSU- worst of the number...at 5.5 hoped for it to rise and found 4.5...5.5 and 4.5 are pretty meaninless numbers, but still hate it...I like Dantonio's group, but something just wouldnt' let me pull the trigger...don't know enough about the new QB off last years limited success and Cal normally starts fast...also don't know how they are goning to bounceback from 07 debacle..

FSU- number is too small...I would need to rate them a 50% chance to win and I just don't here...Teel, although not good, is experienced...a deep, fast, talented WR crew returns....5 of top 7 tacklers return for RU...no Rice, so huge unkown...who's to say these new kids are no good...I love Pat Hill and his group this year...just not enough value here...


Writeups for the three plays will be up tonight.
 
Best of luck jump, already on Ok St but liking them a lot, might bump it up another unit..
 
I'm tied up as can be tonight w/ the daughter so haven't had time for a writeup...plenty of info i'm sure out there though...bjorks has a great thread on Okie St....VK has great info on TCU in there...esp about how they finished last year adn the dominance of NM....as for Miss, haven't seen many on it, but I'm sure there's some info out there..

So for no writeups on those three...
 
Just got LSU -15 -110 (2 units) @ bm

I've seen 24.5 or so at dimes all week and they show 27 now...no clue if they think a move up is that big of deal..i dont' know...great value imo...
 
Line seems to have settled, so it's obvious BM thinks their line is right. Sure as hell hope they are wrong.

Showering and off to a buddies house for the day..

Do work today guys and GL.
 
6-1 +7.95 units this week on Sides...hair under 7 w/ the teaser


not going to mess with the Sunday/Monday games...GL to those that d...
 
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