Week One Discussion Thread

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

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Staff member
Seems a lot of the popular dogs have been bet down already...

Couple of story lines ...


Falcons and Eagles playoff rematch

Jimmy G and the Niners go to Minnesota

The Jags open in Jersey against the ever popular G-Men

Houston and New England battle again in Foxboro

Chargers and Chiefs in an early AFC West battle

Primetime to close out weekend

Pack/Bears, Lions/Jets and Raiders/Rams



Personal looks at betting...

Texans TT over 22.5 ish

Panthers TT over 23 ish

Jets +6.5 or better perhaps

Half/Live and Props
 
Which site do you use for a baseline of power ratings?

Barnwell? I cant quite figure out how best to use football outsiders or SB nation in my capping.

I got nothing but recency bias. I need help, NFL is so hard. When I play I think I'm going to just pick winners, if they win within the spread, yay, try to sell points every game and be close to even juice, idk, NFL is not ez
 
Mahomes fade I could get behind

Bunch of mediocre out there

Coughlin and Barkley aren't story lines

I have my team, line is correct, prolly goes to the wire
 
Looking forward to Texans with healthy Watson and Watt. Should see a definite uptick from last year
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Which site do you use for a baseline of power ratings?

Barnwell? I cant quite figure out how best to use football outsiders or SB nation in my capping.

I got nothing but recency bias. I need help, NFL is so hard. When I play I think I'm going to just pick winners, if they win within the spread, yay, try to sell points every game and be close to even juice, idk, NFL is not ez
Click to expand...

Why not just watch and learn in week 1 man? No need to force bets?
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Looking forward to Texans with healthy Watson and Watt. Should see a definite uptick from last year
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I either like the points or over against pats, unless they drastically changed something about their defense they have issues w qb’s like Watson!!

I just hope both can stay healthy, Watt and back surgery number what now? Then I fear Watson could be kind of guy that always a injury risk while being spectacular and fun to watch while he playing..
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Which site do you use for a baseline of power ratings?

Barnwell? I cant quite figure out how best to use football outsiders or SB nation in my capping.

I got nothing but recency bias. I need help, NFL is so hard. When I play I think I'm going to just pick winners, if they win within the spread, yay, try to sell points every game and be close to even juice, idk, NFL is not ez
Click to expand...

Nobody beats NFL consistently every year that I’ve ever seen bro, we all need help!! Lol.. only guys I’ve ever known not to are either liars or havnt been playing it long enough to learn this basic truth!!

I thought I was a nfl capping mastmind when I was a kid then 1st year I seriously bet it and creamed a few locals for big sums, then next year came and I was all into preseason ready to fire away and start making that money, next thing I know it week 4-5 and I’m alreasy 10k in the hole!! Lol..only thing I’ve learned since then is self control, betting way smaller amounts, and never expecting to win at this sport. Happy for my good years, can live with the so-so ones, and don’t let myself get into situation where I could lose a lot on bad ones.
 
braves said:
Personally looking to fade Mahomes in his first start ever , I think he is going be exciting but also throw a. Ton of picks this season

Week 1 tends to be dart throwing for me , week 2 is usually my favorite week of the year to bet this junk
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Agree w fading kc (helps chargers are stacked on both sides of ball too, just no real home field advantage only problem w it).

I kinda like week 1 but I’m with ya, week 2 is usually only week I can count on doing well as it basically “fade everyone’s reaction to week 1” day!!
 
Not usually into favs but I liked a few this week. Mostly ravens, without looking back I feel like they generally been a strong home fav in past, that defense should eat up bills crap passing game, all talk been Flacco motivated, looks great, and he definitely has better weapons. I don’t think they need much more than low 20s to cover and suspect the defense sets up a score or 2.
 
Bungals/colts looks like could be a potential shootout. Believe they put up 47 last year with whoever was playing qb for Indy? I think luck even rusty is worth we’ll over a fg to this colts offense.
 
I'll add this re: KC-LAC

To me there is no question that LA is the better team. However....

And this is not me the fan speaking.... I think KC's offense is right there with Pitt, LAR and a select few in the top tier at full strength. I don't see Mahomes making the mistakes people think he will make... I do like the over quite a bit..

LAC has prob been the better team the last few times they have played as well. I also remember being in Foxboro on opening night last year in a game in which KC was given zero shot of winning.... Their game plan was miles ahead of New England's.

Say what you will about Fat Andy... This team will schematically be ready for Anthony Lynn, I assure you of that. They begin working on AFC West scouting months before any of the other teams and have done so since Reid arrived. LAC very well may play to their potential, but I don't think it's the slam dunk that some are making it out to be.

Im at work so if anything is disjointed I apologize
 
Capaholic said:
I'll add this re: KC-LAC

To me there is no question that LA is the better team. However....

And this is not me the fan speaking.... I think KC's offense is right there with Pitt, LAR and a select few in the top tier at full strength. I don't see Mahomes making the mistakes people think he will make... I do like the over quite a bit..

LAC has prob been the better team the last few times they have played as well. I also remember being in Foxboro on opening night last year in a game in which KC was given zero shot of winning.... Their game plan was miles ahead of New England's.

Say what you will about Fat Andy... This team will schematically be ready for Anthony Lynn, I assure you of that. They begin working on AFC West scouting months before any of the other teams and have done so since Reid arrived. LAC very well may play to their potential, but I don't think it's the slam dunk that some are making it out to be.

Im at work so if anything is disjointed I apologize
Click to expand...

That’s a really good point and kc always seems the more prepaired team w extra time. I really didn’t like most Lynn gameplans last year either so that certainly a reason to like chargers less, I don’t trust his offensive game plans at all. I just look at that d and think they are tough for a kid making his 1st start, pressure up front and really good secondary. I suppose that where we disagree, I’d be surprised if Mahomes shines here.
 
Big D Nick got injured this pre-season and played pretty horrible when he was out there.

No Alshon... feel like too many pieces trying to gel after a crazy off season. Quinn should be able to shut them down again.
 
the ATL move is historic, think i'm still taking PHI in my SU pick 'em but at the lowest confidence point

Love KC and think above 3 is insanity considering no HFA in a split stadium plus Henry's absence will be felt
 
B.A.R. said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1037010030699139077
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hadn't thought about it lol what a fucking snake

tuck321 said:
Any interest in Browns plus 4
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i'm planning to play anti-CLE ML in every game that isn't Week 3 vs NYJ. Not happy with what Bell is doing as I'm on the RSW u6, but i think that only adds value as the line shrinks

2daBank said:
That’s a really good point and kc always seems the more prepaired team w extra time. I really didn’t like most Lynn gameplans last year either so that certainly a reason to like chargers less, I don’t trust his offensive game plans at all. I just look at that d and think they are tough for a kid making his 1st start, pressure up front and really good secondary. I suppose that where we disagree, I’d be surprised if Mahomes shines here.
Click to expand...

2nd start
 
VirginiaCavs said:
You equate betting on them as on friggin Orioles I bet! Lol
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lol, I hadn’t really thought bout it but yea for sure. Don’t even like thinking bout what a headache O’s were for me this year until I just said “fuck it” and avoided their games completely. Pretty much same w Browns, prob just about all of us here been burnt numerous times taking Browns last few years when books started just jacking lines sky high cause every square in world been cashing against them, sadly all that accomplished was us eating up some their liability while the faders continued to cash in against them as they just invented new ignorant ways to blow covers week after week!!

I really do think browns ready to turn corner and win some games, im just not ready to invest in that thought until they show me a little something!! I hate going about it like that as obviously it better to be ahead of the curve on such things, that said I suspect plenty of ppl having that same thought judging by the line. Just don’t see a ton of value in that number so I’ll just wait and see if they have gotten the ship righted.
 
GWarner27 said:
the ATL move is historic, think i'm still taking PHI in my SU pick 'em but at the lowest confidence point

Love KC and think above 3 is insanity considering no HFA in a split stadium plus Henry's absence will be felt
Click to expand...

Personnel wise I think chargers a fg better on a neutral but def agree scheme and coaching favors kc.
 
When was his 1st start G? Like meaningless game at end of season last year? I just didn’t recall, still havnt looked but now that you mention wasn’t it against broncos? How he do?
 
Some Bills thoughts.....


General consensus is that the offense will be trash and Peterman will throw 5 picks. Let me preface my thoughts by saying I think Peterman was the only way to go as he looked the best all preseason, clear to me Allen is not ready. They showed NOTHING in terms of offense, Shady will get his and Ivory is a nice pickup. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Benjamin will have a decent season, and a healthy Clay will help (ppl forget how well he run blocks). Zay is a huge question as I think they still think he can produce. Biggest question outside of qb is the o-line, who as a unit looked pretty trash all preseason. I doubt whatever lineup they put out week 1 will be shuffled all season. Ducasse scares me and could be a liability. I heard McDermott say they have to lean on Miller, but he has looked bad all preseason. Dawkins has talent. Must reiterate that top tier d lines will likely destroy Buffalo's line- right out of the gate the matchups vs the Chargers, Vikings, Houston and Jax are games this season where I would advise against any Buffalo tt overs or side plays.

Defensively the bill's biggest loss is Gaines in the backfield, but as a whole I think they got way better. Ton of depth at Dline with Yarbrough, Lawson, Washington rotating off the bench. I would expect Hughes to have a breakout season with Murphy on the other end. Edmunds is a freak and I hope that he will rise to the challenge of running this defense. Vontae Davis is the weak spot in the secondary, but White is a top tier corner and we have nasty safeties. I think Buffalo's defense will surprise people.



In this matchup I think the perception is that Buffalo is trending downward and the Ravens finally got what they needed in wrs. But did they? Crab, Snead, Brown all I see are #2s. I do worry about Davis getting roasted on a deep ball but Flacco doesn't strike fear in my heart. Collins came on strong last year and Allen is nice out of the backfield, but I think the front 7 will be able to slow the run and keep pressure on Flacco. I think this is lined way too high and could see a 3-7 pt game either way.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Some Bills thoughts.....


General consensus is that the offense will be trash and Peterman will throw 5 picks. Let me preface my thoughts by saying I think Peterman was the only way to go as he looked the best all preseason, clear to me Allen is not ready. They showed NOTHING in terms of offense, Shady will get his and Ivory is a nice pickup. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Benjamin will have a decent season, and a healthy Clay will help (ppl forget how well he run blocks). Zay is a huge question as I think they still think he can produce. Biggest question outside of qb is the o-line, who as a unit looked pretty trash all preseason. I doubt whatever lineup they put out week 1 will be shuffled all season. Ducasse scares me and could be a liability. I heard McDermott say they have to lean on Miller, but he has looked bad all preseason. Dawkins has talent. Must reiterate that top tier d lines will likely destroy Buffalo's line- right out of the gate the matchups vs the Chargers, Vikings, Houston and Jax are games this season where I would advise against any Buffalo tt overs or side plays.

Defensively the bill's biggest loss is Gaines in the backfield, but as a whole I think they got way better. Ton of depth at Dline with Yarbrough, Lawson, Washington rotating off the bench. I would expect Hughes to have a breakout season with Murphy on the other end. Edmunds is a freak and I hope that he will rise to the challenge of running this defense. Vontae Davis is the weak spot in the secondary, but White is a top tier corner and we have nasty safeties. I think Buffalo's defense will surprise people.



In this matchup I think the perception is that Buffalo is trending downward and the Ravens finally got what they needed in wrs. But did they? Crab, Snead, Brown all I see are #2s. I do worry about Davis getting roasted on a deep ball but Flacco doesn't strike fear in my heart. Collins came on strong last year and Allen is nice out of the backfield, but I think the front 7 will be able to slow the run and keep pressure on Flacco. I think this is lined way too high and could see a 3-7 pt game either way.
Click to expand...


Excellent, as always.
 
To piggyback on what Lex wrote, the Bills have a pretty good opening day record over years past. One blowout loss to the Jets but other than that the losses have been inside of a TD including 1 & 2 point losses to NE. History has nothing to do with the future in sports but I never trust these guys to win or lose opening day.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Some Bills thoughts.....


General consensus is that the offense will be trash and Peterman will throw 5 picks. Let me preface my thoughts by saying I think Peterman was the only way to go as he looked the best all preseason, clear to me Allen is not ready. They showed NOTHING in terms of offense, Shady will get his and Ivory is a nice pickup. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Benjamin will have a decent season, and a healthy Clay will help (ppl forget how well he run blocks). Zay is a huge question as I think they still think he can produce. Biggest question outside of qb is the o-line, who as a unit looked pretty trash all preseason. I doubt whatever lineup they put out week 1 will be shuffled all season. Ducasse scares me and could be a liability. I heard McDermott say they have to lean on Miller, but he has looked bad all preseason. Dawkins has talent. Must reiterate that top tier d lines will likely destroy Buffalo's line- right out of the gate the matchups vs the Chargers, Vikings, Houston and Jax are games this season where I would advise against any Buffalo tt overs or side plays.

Defensively the bill's biggest loss is Gaines in the backfield, but as a whole I think they got way better. Ton of depth at Dline with Yarbrough, Lawson, Washington rotating off the bench. I would expect Hughes to have a breakout season with Murphy on the other end. Edmunds is a freak and I hope that he will rise to the challenge of running this defense. Vontae Davis is the weak spot in the secondary, but White is a top tier corner and we have nasty safeties. I think Buffalo's defense will surprise people.



In this matchup I think the perception is that Buffalo is trending downward and the Ravens finally got what they needed in wrs. But did they? Crab, Snead, Brown all I see are #2s. I do worry about Davis getting roasted on a deep ball but Flacco doesn't strike fear in my heart. Collins came on strong last year and Allen is nice out of the backfield, but I think the front 7 will be able to slow the run and keep pressure on Flacco. I think this is lined way too high and could see a 3-7 pt game either way.
Click to expand...

I hate being against you when it comes to bills but i truly believe in this spot you selling ravens short, that once again is a very good d and I in no way see bills driving field and scoring tds against them. While Brown healthy which doubtful it last but he is right now is a perfect wr for Flacco and think they will be lethal till he once again gets hurt, especially w Crabtree on the other side. I see that ravens d giving the o a few short fields and just don’t think it takes more than 24 to cover that -7 (where I played it), I wouldn’t have taken above -7 but feel like worst case a push at 7.. god knows I’m wromg plenty but I just see a game bills struggle to get 17 unless their defense/special teams gets them a score. And think 24 for ravens more than doable. At least one of us cash and like I said most the year I’ll happily follow your lead on bills games as you have shown to know them as well as I know my stl baseball cardinals. In this spot I just feel our biggest disagreement is on how good or not the ravens gonna be, imo I think if they stay healthy ravens can easily retake this division.. gl buddy and thanks for your bills thoughts, even when I disagree they always appreciated!!
 
Zeke said:
To piggyback on what Lex wrote, the Bills have a pretty good opening day record over years past. One blowout loss to the Jets but other than that the losses have been inside of a TD including 1 & 2 point losses to NE. History has nothing to do with the future in sports but I never trust these guys to win or lose opening day.
Click to expand...

I’d be far more likely to back bills at this kind of number vs pats who they always play tough than ravens at home where they been pretty excellent as favs w harbaugh (that my perception anyways, lol)..
 
2daBank said:
When was his 1st start G? Like meaningless game at end of season last year? I just didn’t recall, still havnt looked but now that you mention wasn’t it against broncos? How he do?
Click to expand...

yup Week 17 @DEN, not exactly the toughest test but on the road against a decent defense with some stud CBs and i thought he impressed
 
GWarner27 said:
yup Week 17 @DEN, not exactly the toughest test but on the road against a decent defense with some stud CBs and i thought he impressed
Click to expand...

Right on, I recall the game but don’t remember particulars.

Before even going back and looking my question to you is do you think that den D circu week 18 last year is evem
3/4 the charger defense is this week? Regardless of your answer I agree it still means a lot he has one under his belt and is another well thought reasom in this thread chagers least of favs i still like (I like colts more but that different discussion :) ) .

Interesting thought, I totally get why you guys don’t think sd (lac I guess) deserves hfa points, but wouldn’t you agree this soccer stadium something any good college team qb like Mahomes is still way differen. atmosphere. Why can’t those ends get off the ball sondwhere they played last year???? As I said w ya’ll opinions, i don’t like this play nearly as
Much and so appreciate you 2 showing reasons it a coin flip now Imo.

God i love this site and ya’ll make it so good!

Right now my favs

Ov 48.5 in indy

Balt-7 (with nothing but respect for
bills guys)
 
mahomes played in Lubbock and the big xii has a bunch of different support so i don't think the venue has any impact. LAC likely gets 2 points for being at home and i think that is grossly over-generous
 
currently waiting to see if it hits 3 or 4. Will not lose 3 but 4 would be nice to have in my pocket
 
GWarner27 said:
mahomes played in Lubbock and the big xii has a bunch of different support so i don't think the venue has any impact. LAC likely gets 2 points for being at home and i think that is grossly over-generous
Click to expand...

Agree with that, don’t think they should really get anything for HFA until they out of that soccer stadium.. right or wrong I think talent wise they 3 points better on nuetral but as I said I think you guys who like kc have made excellent points and def agree big advatage for kc in the coaching/preparation department. I loved chargers when I started looking at card weeks ago but have cooled on that play significantly..
 
Capaholic said:
I'll add this re: KC-LAC

To me there is no question that LA is the better team. However....

And this is not me the fan speaking.... I think KC's offense is right there with Pitt, LAR and a select few in the top tier at full strength. I don't see Mahomes making the mistakes people think he will make... I do like the over quite a bit..

LAC has prob been the better team the last few times they have played as well. I also remember being in Foxboro on opening night last year in a game in which KC was given zero shot of winning.... Their game plan was miles ahead of New England's.

Say what you will about Fat Andy... This team will schematically be ready for Anthony Lynn, I assure you of that. They begin working on AFC West scouting months before any of the other teams and have done so since Reid arrived. LAC very well may play to their potential, but I don't think it's the slam dunk that some are making it out to be.

Im at work so if anything is disjointed I apologize
Click to expand...


Checkers and Chess out there today. Next week obv different story as Pitt is KC’s kryptonite but the playcalling was a thing of beauty from Reid.
 
Capaholic said:
Checkers and Chess out there today. Next week obv different story as Pitt is KC’s kryptonite but the playcalling was a thing of beauty from Reid.
Click to expand...

Appreciate you guys getting me off liking chargers., made my ravens and Indy over plays much better not giving back on that game..

Far as tonight rams look almost as easy as ravens looked to me. Total mismatch in rosters here, raiders traded Mack cause they need those picks to build a defense imo, right now rams stacked on both sides with a great coach and I don’t see Oakland anywhere near that level..

I’ll take the over in Detroit (actually have different teasers needing either lions pk or jets+13, think both will Cash like pack/bears).. hoping one team gets out here and forces the other to come back, imo both passing attacks capable of scoring on these secondaries it just a matter of forcing them to open up, think both offenses have more than enough weapons at wr and trigger men to put up points.
 
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