Week of Saturday, September 21st Plays and Analysis Thread...

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
26-21-1 +8.01 units


Dropped a few units last week. That is basically courtesy of Ole Miss stumbling after the 1st quarter and somehow barely hitting the 40 mark...

Quick review and then onto this week...

1. Lost the Thursday night TT with my Bobcats of Texas State. Tale of two halves in this game. Too many mistakes in the 2h and the defense played their system much better, The one time I didn't play both 1h and game with them. Bummer.

2. Tulane and Oklahoma 1Q under was a solid bet. I'd do that again, no doubt.

3. Miami TT was a bet I regretted during the delay and through the first 24 mins of action. They went nuts late 1h to win this bet. I love the cap, but wouldn't bet into a delay again. Lucky.

4. Georgia TT was one of my worst bets of the year. Kentucky has looked really bad and I wasn't seeing them playing then tough at home on defense like some other years. Wrong. The Dawgs barely won.

5. Pitt TT live could be called lucky, I guess. My timing was awful as they went ice cold on offense (hoops reference) after the bet. I also bet, unposted, the live over in this game after WVU took the lead. A fun finish to the backyard brawl!

6. Auburn TT took a while to get there but this was 75% a tail of @gps_3 and @bookieassassin . I capped it and was in full agreement after their posts. Well done gents!

7. The Maryland and Virginia total was a lean all week that I never pulled the trigger on. After the sweep in Pitt on live bets, I played it. Brutal. Bad, bad bet.

8. Lastly, the Ole Miss game. These guys had 20 in the 1st quarter. They just were sloppy with key penalties, kicking FG's and seemingly not caring at times. I'd bet this again and win 80% of the time. Obviously, my biggest stake of the week too -- so that checks out.


This week will be another light one as a charity outing Saturday + a prior engagement at night will prevent much live and HT action...

As mentioned in the Big Ten Thread -- PSU overs of some sort are coming....

Kansas has been a big disappointment. West Vag off a tough loss in the Brawl. Hmmm...

Auburn and Arkansas over seems to have legs... remember this one two years ago in Vegas @cubsker ?

Tennessee will be a play at some point, in some fashion.

I'll likely have a play on USC-Mich and might be a bit out of the realm of what others are thinking.

LSU Team Total is being discussed. Currently capping the UCLA defense a bit more.

BC and MSU over is one I really like. I have an extra unit here as I might play back at some point. I see big plays in this game, and both teams will be into the 20's at least. I figured this total more 49-50 to be honest.


Michigan State/BC o46 -110 2 units

Michigan State/BC o45 -110
 
Does soarty d have the ability to keep Castellanos in the pocket the way mizzou mostly did? Kid isn’t much a passer when not running around, I do love his rush prop in right spots tho, I was worried mizzou d was fast enough to contain him. I have no clue about sparty d.
 
Auburn o53.5 -110 3 units
LSU TT o38.5 -115
Obviously I missed something with that barn total going down.... Simply bet it.

That sucks but we won the other two good size bets today unless Mullings takes a big loss.
 
I didn’t see this in time lol been brutal for over bettors. So many missed opportunities

I had the chance to get off the bc and sparty total late 3rd.

I decided to let it ride.

Oh well.

Too many mistakes.

Chiles is fun but an absolute turnover machine.

Holy mistakes in the Auburn game too. I almost went 2h over but left that alone.

Blah day -- a few unposted winners (Tenn and a 2h TT North Texas) but also a few unposted losers.

Looking back...

OSU overs
PSU overs
Tenn
Mullings
Auburn over
Bc over

Stick with that and we're in plus territory ...

Added Friday and today, you pay for lack of sticking to the plan.

Two open bets small right now, see how it goes.
 
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