Week of October 25th Plays and Analysis Thread

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
47-33-2 +32.30 units

Well, a helluva week last week going 10 and 3 and getting over 10 units added to the bankroll. I'll take that in a heartbeat anytime in October. Got a nice early start and we got the job done. Quick review before we move on.

Nevada -20 -110 3 units
Arizona PK -110 3 units
Missouri +7 -110 2 units
Northern Illinois -7 -110 2 units
Iowa -3 -120 2 units
Kansas +21 -120 2 units
USC 1H -23.5 -105 2 units
Georgia -14 -120
Scary +110
Miami(Oh) +10 -120
Click to expand...

Thought Nevada may come done to a key number but they ended up covering all numbers. I will say, I was happy to have played it early when they were only up 20 in early 4th I believe. This is one box I haven't checkede yet. Checked almost all of them. Guessing this was right play(haven't read all of VK's thread yet). Arizona overcame the early turnovers and had an incredible third quarter. I thought we we dead at half but the 28-3 run in third gave us the win. I know this was a hotly debated game on the site so gld we took care of business. Run defense was pretty good sans the one huge run to Best. Missouri just got run out of the building quick. Was going to buy off if it hit three...oh well. I can handle it. Texas is just that good and riding a wave of confidence right now. The situational play on NIU was as easy as they come. Feel I capped that game perfect from how previous week had gone. Very happy. You can put Iowa in same category. Wisky had no life and Stansi is really coming into his own. Kansas got the late backdoor to come off the push. Thank you very much. Big thanks to Yanks for getting me to look at that USC first half. What an easy winner. Georgia add was looking at previous boxes. I do regret. I had bad feeling but I played anyway. Not a great decsion in all honesty laying that many against a good defense. Scary just couldn;t handle the pressure. Six sacks I believe. Like ETG said, if it was around three, different result perhaps. Miami O outrighjt was nice. May be first time I went 2-0 in MAC ever.

This week. Games were played this afternoon. The moneyline was played tonight with the adjusted spread.

Michigan +5.5 -110 3 units
Michigan ML +155
Alabama -7 -110 3 units
Oregon -4 -110 2 units
Ohio State +3 -120 2 units
Alabama -5 -110 4 units
Kent +5 -110 3 units
Minnesota -2 -110 2 units

This may be it for this card. Nothing else pops out enough right now. But we have 4 more days to cap. Plenty of thoughts to come in morning on these games.

:cheers:
 
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wow .. ...... great week. Biggest regret of the week for me ws being greedy on the niu game where it was 7.5 after reading your thread and i didnt want to buy down and so i waited and then got line move followed by drbob move and it was gone. Great call on that game. One of best situationally capped games of the year i think.

Cannot wait for your michigan thoughts !!!
 
Yeah, I'll have them in morning Kyle.

Btw, know line is now 4..and thats when I played ML...but still love it there as well fwiw.

Alabama is just a trenches game. They had one yard rushing against UGA....they might not get that here...lol...
 
How much did you drink last night?

Week of September 25th Plays and Analysis Thread
 
BAR, I'm having a little trouble backing Alabama after their performances the last two weeks. Would you say you see more out of Alabama to make this bet or is it more that Tennessee is so bad on offense? Fading Tennessee or supporting Alabama? I guess I would rather back Alabama in a game where they feel pressure bc in those games (Clemson, Georgia) they came out on fire. Thanks for your thoughts and plays BAR, always appreciate the read.

For the Michigan, MSU game, I'm a little worried that Michigan State is going to come out and want to put a whooping on the Wolverines after being embarrassed at home last week vs Ohio St.
 
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Take a look at Arizona at home vs SC....Arizona could have won the game last year in LA..This is homecoming for Arizona and they have upset a ranked team at homecoming the last 5 years.....I would take the points
 
Bama, eh? Don't you think this is a shitty situation and an odd opening number for this game? You're a big situational guy, and I think that brand of capping points to a Vols play in this game, but what the hell does your Uncle Galtie know?

Love your boys this weekend. Rich Rod is going to have tons of smoke and will cover the sidelines in mirrors for this one. That fucker knows how to win these types of games, especially when he's a dog. :cheers:
 
Agree Galt...I made that number 10.5 and was shocked at a 7 opener....

Interested in thoughts as well...Bama beat up too..
 
Have to agree with everyone else. When I saw 5.5 I was like 4-real what am I missing here.
 
I will put some quick thoughts.

Situation doesn't concern me too much. We have a Bama team undervalued a bit here off last few games imho. They don't have the Saban Bowl for two more weeks. OOC game against Arky State next week so no looking ahead, etc. Seems this team gets up for road games as well. They have dismantled Clemson, Arkansas and Geogia on road this year.

Messy State was in a bad situational spot last week off the big win vs Vandy. It was a definite letdown spot. That ebing said, it was merely 13-3 entering the 4th quarter. The Vols benefitted from two pick returns for scores in the 4th stanza. UT had 275 total yards. Very unimpressive.

We all saw their game at Georgia a few weeks ago. They should have been shutout or had 7 points at the most. UGA was sloppy and had a few bad playcalls. It was total domination in that game. I think Bama will win both sides of the ball on the lines. Are they banged up? Yes. They still outclass the Vols team though. Is is sacreligious to lay points on road in SEC? Of course, but you have to stay in the present and not worry about the past.

More on this later.
 
Questioner: "I'll be the bad guy - you spoke very emotionally last year on the Monday after the game. Do you regret reacting like that and does the 'little brother' line still dull you a little bit?"

(serious look) "No, I do not regret talking like that and uh, you know.." (little smile and shrug) "...big brother's watching" (lots of chuckles from the reporters)

-------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------- -----

Questioner: "Coach, the fact that Michigan State hasn't had much success against Michigan at home or on the road.. "

(smiling) "...I knew this one was coming - go ahead.."

Questioner: "..do you have to address that fact just because it's been a long drought for success on either site?"

(smiling and pausing for at least 5 seconds): "Do you want me to really go there? There's a lot of people that hadn't won at Michigan....(still smiling)....they found a way to win. (long pause) So we'll have to find a way to win."

-------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------- ---------

Questioner: "Coach, a lot of teams - Oregon, Utah, Toledo, Appalachian State have gone in there and won, and..."

(interupting, smiling): "Say that again?"

Questioner: "Absolutely - Oregon, Utah, Toledo, Appalachian State - when you hear all this - it's not like Darth Vader's guarding the place... Talk about how people seem to make more out of that than what it is."

: "Would you repeat that question?"
 
The Wolvies still a 3 unit play for you at 4 Big Al? Great fuckin call on Fight On 1st half last week...we hit it on the head with them winning by anywhere from 60-70 points.
 
Gittin sexy with the wolves baby..

Imma kinda leaning Texas Tech too..thoughts?
 
Like both plays buddy...lean heavily to Bama myself. Nice job thus far on the season!

GL this week bro!

:cheers:
 
big al-- great week last week!! upset tummy...little tablespoon of apple cider vinegar, water and grape juice will clear that right up

hunt-was at the red raider game last week....crabtree sprained his ankle....harrell with any kind of pressure was not good....aggies had every opportunity to steal that game.....sure would like to see tech undefeated playing texas in lubbock next week
 
yeah Boss..it's been circulating for a couple days and today the major press got a hold of it..I heard Ringer was invlolved at first..then was even more sure of it when the line dropped that he was..but I guess he wasn't.

We know both these guys' hate each other..but Dantonio is an idiot the way he approaches this game..just my opinion though.
 
HereWeGo said:
The Wolvies still a 3 unit play for you at 4 Big Al? Great fuckin call on Fight On 1st half last week...we hit it on the head with them winning by anywhere from 60-70 points.
Click to expand...

Yes, I still like it at four quite a bit. It was at 4 when I played the ML. I think line hovers right around here for the rest of the week. That first half play was great. Credit Yanks with that one. I took it and ran with it following some more research after talking to him about it. Very easy play no doubt. Kinda haven't looked at first halves/totals much this year as in previous years. Trying to simplify things and have been pleased with the results so far this season.
 
Blue_Chip said:
BAR, your thoughts on Illinois at Wisconsin?

I'm leaning heavy to the Badgers catching points at home.
Click to expand...

Man, this is a tough game. We have seen the wheels fall completely off the Wisky bandwagon. Four straight losses and an o-fer start to the big ten season. Is it conceivable they could lose three staright home games at Camp Randall? At this point, yes. Illinois weakness is pass defense. Wisconsin isn't exactly a stretch the field team. Sherer(sp) has a start under his belt though and should be more comfortable at home. That being said, just like last week I would like to know who can support this badger team right now? They have shown ZERO spark that last two weeks.
 
Dmac, thanks brother. Same to you man.

Tx, good to see ya man. I think I got rid of it. Just exhausted now. Perhaps a minor flu bug. Weird for me to get though. To answer Hunt at same time I am leary of Tech right now in all honesty. Lookahead as well. Very tough for me to back.

For the Michigan contingent...

Little brother just wanted to be like big brother and get in a fight with a hockey player(s). LOL. Hunt, that woulda been something if it was Ringer. Oh my. I have earched up and down tonight for more information. Nothing new I can find though.

Both Hoyer and Threet should start this week after going out with injuries last week. Threets was a re-aggravate from the Toledo game. I think he'll be fine. He looked very confident in that first half in Happy Valley. First time I haven't seen him airmail a few passes in a game. His passing is really coming around. All starts up front though. The line played its best it has all year. I think they are really starting to gel. Minor was great in that first half. One thing to remember is the final score was obviously deceiving. Game really changed with the Threet injury. I know PSU defense clamped down in 2nd qtr and early third but this was still a 17-14 game with about 4-5 minutes left in third. Once Sheridan came in it was all but over anyway. Turnover machine and simply cannot pass past 5-8 yards. I love the fight this team showed off the Toledo loss. Showed a lot of character..

I'll get into this game more in a bit.
 
u sexy thang...

I agree completely with that last paragraph.

If Sheridan gets in Saturday imma fuckin airmail my remote.

I MIGHT go Boss.
 
Last thing for tonight.

I did read at a few sites that Feagin is getting reps with the 2nd team this week. Obviously his pasing isn't ready to play in a game but at same point Sheridan is/was a turnover machine. You just cannot have that. I believe we have seen the last of him as #2 on the depth chart.
 
B.A.R. said:
Arizona overcame the early turnovers and had an incredible third quarter. I thought we we dead at half but the 28-3 run in third gave us the win. I know this was a hotly debated game on the site so gld we took care of business. Run defense was pretty good sans the one huge run to Best.

Big thanks to Yanks for getting me to look at that USC first half. What an easy winner.
Click to expand...


first...fu :pillow:
caught up on that game. didn't cap the midget backup RB, or zona having anywhere near that kinda success on the ground...but there were also a fortunate set of circumstances that allowed that huge 3rd Q. the main one though was Best. what a fucking dope. he doesn't hurt himself diving into the endzone in the 2nd Q, then it doesn't completely change the Cal offense in the 2nd half...which still outgained zona, overall.
bottom line though...zona turned out to be the right side...last week. But more than adjustments, Stoops jsut got his team to come out huge in the 2nd somehow. but he's under the gun, so that might've been it. he's in the last year of his deal...and it was reported that his job was in jeopardy is they lost to Cal. surprising in a way...but not in another, i guess.


second...you're welcome. :cheers:
out of the games/sides i tell you i'm on, when we discuss this shit...you have an uncanny ability to pick the good/winning ones, and not the shit/losing ones. wish i could do the same, lol.


third...:shake:
on bama and michigan as well. UM is steele's dog of the week...and because of their defense, i agree. UM is still shit offensively...but if you can stop/contain Ringer, you stop/contain MSU.
and you know my thoughts on the Vols, and their offense. think Bama's got enough to wear them down, and win by 2 or more scores for sure.
 
BAR,

so is this rumor about a fight between the MSU football and hockey team true?...line seems to be creeping down...
 
morale of the story is hockey players in Mich shouldn't fuck with football players..happened at UM, now MSU..

Rumor is it's a bunch of frosh...Hunt that Ringer rumor was just that one cat spreading shit on GBW..nothing credible I don't think....

It doesn't effect this game at all IMO.
 
third...:shake:
on bama and michigan as well. UM is steele's dog of the week...and because of their defense, i agree. UM is still shit offensively...but if you can stop/contain Ringer, you stop/contain MSU.
and you know my thoughts on the Vols, and their offense. think Bama's got enough to wear them down, and win by 2 or more scores for sure.
Click to expand...

UM's D has been anything but strong as of late, so I guess I'm confused by that comment...that group is underperforming BIG TIME...esp in the secondary..the front four is fine but after that it's really murky...their D is not really a strength at this point at all IMO...and they don't create turnovers at all.
 
JumpOnBoard said:
UM's D has been anything but strong as of late, so I guess I'm confused by that comment...that group is underperforming BIG TIME...esp in the secondary..the front four is fine but after that it's really murky...their D is not really a strength at this point at all IMO...and they don't create turnovers at all.
Click to expand...

The secondary has underperformed big-time. I think its a mixture of scheme and underperforming. Warren hasn't lived up to expectations but at the same time they have him play so far off the ball it seems. Trent has just been a disaster.

Against a set like MSU runs, this is where the Michigan defense can succeed imho. Ringer has had good games in the past againast them and he will grind for yards but I don't see many big plays whatsoever for MSU.
 
B.A.R. said:
Man, this is a tough game. We have seen the wheels fall completely off the Wisky bandwagon. Four straight losses and an o-fer start to the big ten season. Is it conceivable they could lose three staright home games at Camp Randall? At this point, yes. Illinois weakness is pass defense. Wisconsin isn't exactly a stretch the field team. Sherer(sp) has a start under his belt though and should be more comfortable at home. That being said, just like last week I would like to know who can support this badger team right now? They have shown ZERO spark that last two weeks.
Click to expand...

Thanks for nothing. You're supposed to make this an easy decision for me.

:whip:
 
JumpOnBoard said:
hard not to like that last add...

:shake:
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icon14.gif


Pissed I couldn't get flat three. Had to but now. I suspect this line moves back south a bit in all honesty.
 
JumpOnBoard said:
Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">third...:shake:
on bama and michigan as well. UM is steele's dog of the week...and because of their defense, i agree. UM is still shit offensively...but if you can stop/contain Ringer, you stop/contain MSU.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
UM's D has been anything but strong as of late, so I guess I'm confused by that comment...that group is underperforming BIG TIME...esp in the secondary..the front four is fine but after that it's really murky...their D is not really a strength at this point at all IMO...and they don't create turnovers at all.
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
Click to expand...


just meant in terms of containing ringer...thus the rest of my comment.
UM still has the 40th rush defense at just under 121 yds/gm, and 3.25 y/r.
And that's after getting torched by Royster last week, and even Juice (on the ground) 3 weeks ago. Anyhow...just think if they focus on ringer, that they can (somwhat) duplicate the success ohio st had containing ringer...and thus MSU. Gotta make that QB beat you...which is what i was saying in my thread last week, when on tOSU.
 
Yanks26Sox7 said:
just meant in terms of containing ringer...thus the rest of my comment.
UM still has the 40th rush defense at just under 121 yds/gm, and 3.25 y/r.
And that's after getting torched by Royster last week, and even Juice (on the ground) 3 weeks ago. Anyhow...just think if they focus on ringer, that they can (somwhat) duplicate the success ohio st had containing ringer...and thus MSU. Gotta make that QB beat you...which is what i was saying in my thread last week, when on tOSU.
Click to expand...

Bingo, bango bongo.
 
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