Week of October 11th Plays and Analysis Thread

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
38-25-2 +24.40 units

Lets recap last week first...

Illinois ML +125 4 units
Utah -11.5 -110 3 units
Iowa +7.5 -110 3 units
Iowa ML +215 1/2 unit
Ole Miss -2.5 -110
Oklahoma State -25.5 -110
Texas -12.5 -110 2 units
Eastern Michigan +21 -110 2 units
Florida -25.5 -110

Started the week off with the Utah game. Man, not the right call. Their o-line isn't great and Oregon State seemed to have a very good defense off balance all game long. Not much else to say here. Was confident in it and loved the situation but things happen. Lets go to the other ats loss, Ole Miss. I honestly thought we had a good number for this game. That team really could and should be 5-0. Smelley starting was a big factor for me as well. I give him credit though as he got the job done. Scary looked cook down 14-3 early but fought back. The ML loss hurts. Capped this one well imo. Javon did next to nothing other than the 29 yard run in the 4th quarter. Iowa really bottled him up. The Hawks had their chances but just couldn't get it done. The ats was nice though. Ml was more of an ego thing..lol. Elsewhere early, got the front door cover by the Gators. They started slow with the hangover as I thought might happen. Just seemed a bit off but got a gift late and will take it. It'll go the other way later in year. They all even out. The big win of the day was on Illinois moneyline. Michigan looked great those first few drives. I was a bit scared. Was thinking w had turned the corner. The rest of the game we were soft though as RR said. Juice set the Big House all-purpose yardage mark and it got ugly late. Only bright spot for Big Blue was Martavious Odoms. What a great young freshman. The eastern Michigan game was a thing of beauty. I shoulda bit on some ML Kyle style but didn't. One of the easier wins you'll ever have. Thanks again for the push. Texas game was easy as well. That defense looked superb for the part of the game that counted most. Last, but not least, Okie State was dominant again. They are going to bit one of the big boys in the butt this season. I see it coming.

Other random thoughts:

-Terrelle Pryor has great composure. Very impressed by this young man.
-Penn State is very impressive. They held down a very solid offense.
-Was way off witrh my Toledo-BSU capping. Luckily layed off.
-Man is Wyoming bad.

Articles locally

At his news conference last Monday, University of Michigan football coach Rich Rodriguez said he has told his players there's nothing worse than being called lazy or soft.
Two days after Michigan was routed 45-20 by Illinois, Rodriguez used the term "soft" himself to describe his team's performance, and said it applied to all three areas of the game – offense, defense and special teams.
"I'm not saying we have soft guys, but if there's one guy, one out of 11 guys, that plays soft on one play, that's unacceptable," he said Monday. "That will never be acceptable."
When asked to be more specific about what was soft during Michigan's game against the Fighting Illini, Rodriguez said this: "You can run full speed and still be soft. It's a physical ball game, and there comes a point in time where you have to play physically. ... You can't allow them to block you. You've got to want to block them. To me, it's not that they're not trying. Sometimes, they don't realize it. Unless we become a tougher football team, physically and mentally, we'll have a lot of problems."
Film study sessions on Sunday at Schembechler Hall provided the players with evidence of what was missing during their homecoming loss to Illinois. They saw an offense that generated just 69 rushing yards, a defense that allowed 501 total yards and special teams return units that did a subpar job of blocking.
"The film never lies," Michigan senior cornerback Morgan Trent said. "You'll get an honest assessment of what's going on. It's blatant on the film to see who's doing what, and who's not doing what."
But how to get everyone doing the right things with the needed physicality is a subject of debate. Rodriguez said he has asked players if they need more full-contact practices. As it stands now, the only such practice each week happens on Tuesdays, and the coach said he'd prefer not to change that.
"You don't want to beat each other up in practice, and not have your team ready on Saturday," he said. "So the times that we do go physically on Tuesday, we have to go."
Rodriguez said he believes playing more physically starts with having a certain mind-set at practice, then again on game day.
"You've got to cross that line and flip the switch," he said. "And that's not to hit guys dirty or cheap and get stupid penalties. I'm not talking about that. It's an inevitable point of contact or collision - I should say collision. You are either the hammer or the nail. I'd rather be the hammer. We want the hammer."
Getting to that point quickly will be the challenge for the Wolverines, who are 2-3 overall and 1-1 in the Big Ten. Next up for Michigan is a nonconference home game against Toledo (1-4), followed by a road game at No. 6-ranked Penn State.
Trent said being called out once for being soft should provide motivation enough for the Wolverines to make lasting changes.
"It's a word you hope never comes up," he said. "Of course we're disappointed to hear that. We have to continue to get better.
"You should never be soft. It's something we can control all the time. That shouldn't come up again."
Added backup defensive end Ryan Van Bergen: "After watching film, (Rodriguez) was right. It's a horrible insult to call your team soft; I mean, that's the only way you could describe it Saturday."


-----------------------------------------------------------------------

EVANSTON, Ill. -- Unbeaten Northwestern is gearing up for its first real test against No. 23 Michigan State, a squad head coach Pat Fitzgerald calls "the most physical football team" the Wildcats have faced this year.
"Obviously an exciting game here on the horizon," Fitzgerald said Monday. "Two very good football teams who are probably playing their best football of the year."

Coming off a bye week, the Wildcats (5-0, 1-0) have gotten some national recognition, earning votes in the Associated Press poll and falling just outside of the Top 25. Michigan State (5-1, 2-0) beat Iowa 16-13 on Saturday.
Fitzgerald has consistently downplayed the significance of votes his team has received in various media polls as the season has progressed and said he wasn't impressed by his team's recent jump.
"The significance on that is very minimal from our team standpoint," he said. "Expectations around here never change. Maybe the expectations in the media or outside of our football team change but we can't control that so we don't worry too much about it."
Standout running back Tyrell Sutton said support for the team has become more pronounced around campus and hopes the Wildcats' play will keep the enthusiasm rising.
"I've seen some people on campus decide to jump on the bandwagon," he said. "It's up to us to give the fans something to buzz about and I think we've done a good job of that the last five or six weeks. We just have to maintain that buzz and make sure we stay humble and stay grounded and play every game like we're 0-0."
Fitzgerald said his team spent the off week practicing and preparing, before relaxing and watching college football on TV during an idle Saturday.
The rest was welcomed by the Wildcats, who were dealing with assorted bumps and bruises.
"It came at a great time," Sutton said. "I was a little sore after the (Iowa) game and it couldn't have come at a better time. We were a little banged up, we had some guys not playing at 100 percent."
Fitzgerald said that "we're as healthy as maybe we've been five weeks into the season in a couple of years," and said offensive lineman Kurt Mattis and running back Stephen Simmons should be healthy enough to play against Michigan State.
He also hinted at some changes on the Wildcats kickoff return team.
Jeremy Ebert and Jeravin Matthews lined up deep for Northwestern last week, but Sherrick McManis and Omar Conteh were listed as the kick returners on the Wildcats depth chart on Monday. Fitzgerald said any of those four, along with Simmons, are candidates to return kicks against the Spartans.
"We've got a plethora of guys that can return the ball," he said. "They all have unique talents, they're a little bit different in their running styles. I think we've got a good problem back there."




The Plays:

East Carolina -6 -110 2 units
Texas +7 -110 3 units
Wisconsin +6 -120 3 units
Miami Fl -16.5 -110 2 units(5dimes)
Georgia -11.5 -110 2 units
TAMU ML +120
Stanford +7 -115
Northwestern ML +100
Utah -23.5 -110
 
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you know i love texas and wisky. :shake:

not playing it, but gotta wish u good luck/health on ecu.
similar to my thoughts on the zona/stanford game that i was telling you about the other nite, i just don't like this spot for the road team here...for many of the same reasons.
but like i said...not playing this game...but i am still thinking about taking a flyer on stanford to pull the upset. 2 reasons...what zona has on deck the next two, and how zona looked at new mex. my 3rd reason would be stanford returning home off a long roadie...and a 4th would be historical data, lol. i know i've veered off the ecu subject and back onto zona/stanford...but maybe it's cuz i'm trying to talk myself into taking the home doggie there.
doesn't mean i'd touch virginia though...cuz i wouldn't. jsut smells like a similar game/spot in a way, imho.
 
you know i love texas and wisky. :shake:

not playing it, but gotta wish u good luck/health on ecu.
similar to my thoughts on the zona/stanford game that i was telling you about the other nite, i just don't like this spot for the road team here...for many of the same reasons.
but like i said...not playing this game...but i am still thinking about taking a flyer on stanford to pull the upset. 2 reasons...what zona has on deck the next two, and how zona looked at new mex. my 3rd reason would be stanford returning home off a long roadie...and a 4th would be historical data, lol. i know i've veered off the ecu subject and back onto zona/stanford...but maybe it's cuz i'm trying to talk myself into taking the home doggie there.
doesn't mean i'd touch virginia though...cuz i wouldn't. jsut smells like a similar game/spot in a way, imho.

Same way here on that Zona/Stanford game. You have to relate it too New Mexico. ECU was a play after that last UVA game. I think recent play has brought this line down to a nice number for me. We will see. more on this game later.
 
good luck this weekend BAR.... texas looks solid looking at adding them too and maybe ML

uva/ecar is a tough one to call.
i watched the uva/umd game and uva had the perfect gameplan to shut down the fridge's offense, and did. and umd runs a similar offense to the one ECU employs.
verica looked EXCELLENT and poised, coming off one of the most pathetic uva perfromances from a qb ive ever seen 0 td/4 picks in duke

just not sure if UVA is actually finding a rhythm, or they just put all their stock in the UMD game for the rivalry. they do own UMD last couple years.....

we shall see this weekend if theyre for real. good luck bro, like the selective card hope u sweep
 
Not sure I like Texas. I think the line is right on and the game scares the shit out of me. No play.

I know you and Jump are on Wisky and that tells me alot. I'll probably tail on that one.
 
like Oklahoma a lot on Saturday...that game has not been under 7 since like 1998 (think I heard that somewhere)....BOL on these plays

sticking with 3 plays this week?
 
curious on E.Carolina.
When they played at nc state and lost in OT, ECU was 7 point favorite, i think. now they have 2 weeks off and opened as 4-5 favorite at Virginia. Was Virginia's win over md, worth 2-3 points to this line? does this make sense? thanks
 
TheCashMan,

Going back to the NC State game ECU was off 2 bigs wins nationally as far as the names of the programs. They were both big wins. I think their heads got a bit fat in all honesty. they couldn't play a full 60 minutes versus the Wolfpack and lost in Overtime. Last week they played as bad as they could defensively. Also last week, the Hoos played as well as they could in the Maryland game. Not many people saw such a devastating final score coming. In all honesty I think NC State is better than Virginia by a few points at the least. Last few weeks results have brought this line to a comfortable number imo. I think ECU starightens thinsg out this week and gets back on the winning track. UVA was impressive last week but I consier that an exception as Maryland hasn't one much this year other than the stunner of California(well and at Clemson...but thats what mad last week a letdown spot as well).

Yessir,

I know that stat as well. That doesn't really faze me. In fact, trends are made to be broken and this series is due for a classic game. I no doubt know what a force this OU team is. I love what Colt has done though. Really grown up right in front of us. The biggest thing is the defense though. I think they keep the team in in enough to have a chance to win it on the field. I am taking these points believing UT can win this SU. The points are simply a safety net. As far as only three plays..have added one more today and 2-3 more may come this week. Cards will keep getting smaller by 25-50 percent throughout October.

RJ,

Wisky is definetly a solid play. Penn State has been very impressive this year but they have played no one other than Illinois. Yeah, Oregon State is playing nice ball now but they were a hot mess when these two played back in Septemeber. I think Wisky will be able to move the ball pretty well and match up nicely defensively. I also think this line woulda been closer to Pick'em if not for the past few weks happenings.

CapDuece,

Verica was very impressive. Can he do that consistently? Thats big question. I think ECU throws some wrinkles in all honesty. lets get the others brah.

kyle, hunt, pags, blue_chip, barm, nawlins, HereWeGo and buckeye b...

Thanks and Good luck this week:cheers:
 
Lets talk a little Bulldogs-Volunteers football.

First of all, the Vols have been a dissapointment dating back to the game at the Rose Bowl on Labor Day. They pissed me off. It was ridiculous. Since then they have played well at times and terrible at others. I know people backing UT this week will say statistically they kept close to Florida and lost just by the conversion down in Auburn. Thats fine and dandy. They thing is, sitting at 2-3 this team is in a bit of turmoil. There are sure to be some coaching changes for next season in some capacity.

I do understand playing a game against a non-conference MAC foe isn't always the most exciting thing after a game against a rival but they sure stunk it up last week(kinda why I referenced to be careful laying with Michigan this week). Heres a few highlights:

3-13 3rd down conversions
225 total yards
2.2 avg rushing yards

Now, NIU is in the top 40 in defense but thats padded up by last week and games against some weaker competition. They gave up right around 30 in both the Minnesota game and at Western Michigan. Its not like it was the Steele Curtain marching into Neyland stadium last week.

Georgia obviously got beat up pretty bad last time out against Alabama. I hit the dog there but never expected such a rout(final score notwithstanding). This is a revenge game for UGA(35-14) in a rivalry game and they have plenty of time to get back in the hunt. I think the biggest key is this game is won in the trenches. Similar to what I thought all summer about the ASU game. The Tennessee o-line has not been good(had an article, can't find it). I think this is where UGA takes the game and wins by 17-21 minimum.
 
Alright VK...lets rock and roll...

Basically the 4th quarter o the NC game and last week Miami has looked like shit on defense. Too many big plays and breakdowns. This is after a very good start to the season defensively. Seems the issues last week were with a running QB. Look back thru the season and they have been great against the run. In the UNC game they gave up 35 yards on 33 carries. In the TAMU game the number was 87 on 35. The Gators got 89 on 27 but well over half of that was by Tebow. Basically, a couple of talented QB's have put them on edge a bit and they haven't been able to recover. Remember how well they looked in the Florida game defensively till the 4th and Urban pulling the ole run up. Marve has grown considerably so far this year. I kno he didn't post good numbers or look good last week but he was behind the 8-ball right of the Rip. You cannot put young QB's in bad weather down double digits into passing situations and expect them to succeed.

Luckily this week they get the Central Florida Golden Knights. This is not a good team. Victories of SMU and Scaronlina State shouldn't be celebrated. They puashed on that SMU spread after being tied at half. They the Scary St game just 7-0 entering the 4th. Not exactly a dynamic offense. Yeah, the combo of Greco and Calbrese looked nice last week. Whoop-de-dam do, its a June Jones led defense. I could get Steed and Ljc out there and collect 6 yards a pop. Okay, back to the serious business.....

I think this is a breakout game(again, like TAMU) for the Miami offense. I think they will get Benjamin the ball in spots where he can make plays(274 yads and 2 scores last week). Marve should gain a lot of confidence in this game I believe. Not a great defense here. the running game will be efficient as well. Defensively, which ever of the tandem is in will have a tough day I believe. Hopefully Miami gets up early and can tee off. This offense is ranked 113th in the country. Not good.

Miami 35-10

I had this line valued at about 20 btw.
 
just to clarify here...you like wisky to cover, not win, right?

They could well win. Its going to be a nervous game for you whippersnappers....

and looky whats on deck the week after:tiphat:

If you don't beat us this year...:seeya:

If PSU wins wouldn't be suprised if they get down 10-14 at some point and Rally late...
 
Alright VK...lets rock and roll...

Basically the 4th quarter o the NC game and last week Miami has looked like shit on defense. Too many big plays and breakdowns. This is after a very good start to the season defensively. Seems the issues last week were with a running QB. Look back thru the season and they have been great against the run. In the UNC game they gave up 35 yards on 33 carries. In the TAMU game the number was 87 on 35. The Gators got 89 on 27 but well over half of that was by Tebow. Basically, a couple of talented QB's have put them on edge a bit and they haven't been able to recover. Remember how well they looked in the Florida game defensively till the 4th and Urban pulling the ole run up. Marve has grown considerably so far this year. I kno he didn't post good numbers or look good last week but he was behind the 8-ball right of the Rip. You cannot put young QB's in bad weather down double digits into passing situations and expect them to succeed.

Luckily this week they get the Central Florida Golden Knights. This is not a good team. Victories of SMU and Scaronlina State shouldn't be celebrated. They puashed on that SMU spread after being tied at half. They the Scary St game just 7-0 entering the 4th. Not exactly a dynamic offense. Yeah, the combo of Greco and Calbrese looked nice last week. Whoop-de-dam do, its a June Jones led defense. I could get Steed and Ljc out there and collect 6 yards a pop. Okay, back to the serious business.....

I think this is a breakout game(again, like TAMU) for the Miami offense. I think they will get Benjamin the ball in spots where he can make plays(274 yads and 2 scores last week). Marve should gain a lot of confidence in this game I believe. Not a great defense here. the running game will be efficient as well. Defensively, which ever of the tandem is in will have a tough day I believe. Hopefully Miami gets up early and can tee off. This offense is ranked 113th in the country. Not good.

Miami 35-10

I had this line valued at about 20 btw.


awesome thoughts.

Agree with most of it too.

ucf is only getting about 280 yards a game offensively and unless they break off a big run , i dont see them hitting 100 yards on the ground in this game. Also can see ucf having some turnovers if they fall behind early or have the run completely taken away from them early. Been a terrible looking road team so far this year. I think i see the game similar to you which is good to see but i just decided that the under looked safer to me and i hate having big favs tied to unders.

good stuff as usual.
 
They could well win. Its going to be a nervous game for you whippersnappers....

and looky whats on deck the week after:tiphat:

If you don't beat us this year...:seeya:

If PSU wins wouldn't be suprised if they get down 10-14 at some point and Rally late...

My thinking on this Wisky game is somewhat similar to those Geico caveman ads...

If its so simple Michigan can do it...
 
u and john are peas in a pod with picks..lol.

part 2 :shake:
love the miami and a&m additions as well.

cant argue with the UGA play, as that was my initial lean. just haven't been able to pull that particular trigger, as they have a lot to prove. luckily, the vols don't have much of an offense...so here's their chance at some redemption.
 
Still waiting on N'western most likely....watched the replay from last year while I was drifting off to sleep...
 
Added the last two plays.

Got my seven on Stanford, albeit with an extra 5 cents.

I just don't think I'll see a better number on Nortwestern. That play may be added too as well.
 
Great write ups. im new to the site but can tell you know your stuff. My POW is Utah -22.5. Just wondering what your thoughts were on this game? The weather is not going to be nice with possibe eary morning snow and light rain at game time. With the backs for wy getting fairly good ypc it concerns me now. Any thoughts woud be great and keep up the great work.
 
Wyoming as we know is terrible. They bit many in this forum in the arse in first two weeks. Utah is a good team that got a bit surpised by a rapidly surging OSU sqaud last week. Last year was a pasting as the Utes won 50-0.

The QB's of Wyoming have 2 TD's to 11 picks.

They can run a bit but the thing here is Utah's defense I still believe in. It got caught off-balance against the beavers last week. I think they can have their way here. Once they get a lead on offense then Wyoming will have to throw more to ry and catch up. Guess what? Thats not going to work well.

On offense, Brian Johnson should pick this team apart. Remember what Ohio did to this secondary? Exactly.

I will have to check more on this game but I am even now considering a play..lol.

Welcome to the site btw.
 
Reno

Love that UGA play, got a tad worse number, but this is a 2 TD win at minimum for UGA.
 
One addition..Utah

seems trapish..but bottom line is this should be a 35-3 game...Nicky like :)

Write-up on Stan in morning Kyle...
 
Good luck BAR, not much in common or opposition. I am on Northwestern +3.5. I like their chances to win outright, good luck on that and the others.
 
4-5 -2.60 units

was even worse than that though

had UGA -13 with local and added on wisky when I was smashed

Dumb, dumb dumb
 
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