Week of November 8th Plays and Analysis Thread

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
55-43-3 +35.00 units

Week I would like to forget about. Hit a max unit play and lost everthing else. I had one additional play and that was Iowa +3 with local. I did add some. That pushed anyway. Was praying for them to miss pt convo so we could get a push with early number and a win with late addition. Um, not so much. Louisville, uggh. Georgia. I almost talked myself out but stuck to gut intuition. Those who tried to convince.yea, yea yae you were right. Minnesota hurt as well. If you would have told me that NWestern would have 17 points with 40 seconds left I woulda felt we had the correct side in all honesty. That being said, Minnesota wasn't ready for prosperity just yet. East Carolina tonight, yuck as well. Central Florida truly is one of the worst teams in D1 but ECU made them look okay tonight. One big pass play and we just saw the drop by whats his face but whatever. I had a bad feeling when the late surge came with chasers tonight that this was a tru-ish type of play. Shoulda bouhgt off. Stayed stubborn though. At least I capped that Scary game right. They kept pretty clean although they didn;t have a lot of yards and took advantage of opportunities. Fat Phil may be gone real quick now. Saw on some Michigan boards that Dantoni is being sought perhaps. Figure thats some Tennessee faithful starting rumors.

This week:

Western Michigan +7.5 -110 2.5 units
Oklahoma State +4 -110 2 units
Iowa +9 -110 3.5 units
Arizona -38 -110 4 units
Minnesota -9 -110 2 units
Alabama -3 -110 2 units
Minnesota -8.5 -110 2 units
Ohio State -11 -110 3 units
Arizona 1H -23.5 -110 2 units
Wisconsin -9.5 -110
Iowa U42.5 -110 2 units

Classic situational play combined with a strength versus weakness in the matchup in Detroit on Saturday. The WMU and Illinois game will be played indoors at Ford Field. The Illini come off a great home win versus a very tough Iowa squad. They had to keep fighting the Hawkeye rallies before getting the GW fieldgoal late. A late season OOC matchup precedes a huge home game versus the Buckeyes next week in Champagne. This is both a classic sandwich and lookahead spot. You cannot beat that in my opinion.

Tim Hiller much like last year has gotten better as the season has progressed. Western averages over 320 yards per game through the air which is good for 6th in the country. Illinois weakness defensively for past few years imo has been the secondary. This is where I think Western can stay in this game. The stats may not bear it out but stats can get skewed depending on who you are playing.

I am combining those three factors getting a TD and hook into a play. Good situation and been looking forward to it for a little while.

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Oklahoma State and Texas Tech meet up in what should be a terrific game. Last year was a crazy battle. I remember well as I had Tech and got my first real exposure to Zac Robinson. The kid could not be stopped. He was simply amazing in my book with his dual threat abilities. State is showing a better defense this year as well. Even though it was a lookahead spot for Mizzou I still thought they did a great job versus Daniel. Not many other teams have ben able to do that the past few years.

Obvious letdown spot here for the boys from Lubbock. Fabulous win in what was one of the best games I have watched in awhile in terms of pure excitement and shifts of momentum. It was a tough spot for the Horns. Scheduling happens in sports. Nothing you can do about it. They will have the homecrowd again but in all honesty I think the better team here is Okie Lite.

The situation sets up. The Cowboys had an easy tune-up last week and showed good mental fortitude off that tough game at Texas. Other than the 37 spot Houston put up on them in Septemeber their defense has been very solid. I think Robinson is the difference in this game. Expecting a bit of a TT hangover early too to build a lead and get crowd out of the game.

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Not going to discuss the Iowa play too much now. I think guys like myself, Hunt, VK and imma guessing someone else will be on it as well can kind get a group discussion going in one of the threads. Been waiting for this one as well too.

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See Hunts thread about Alabama. He has been pimping this team for 2-3 months too me and I totally concur. Big assist to it being a 3:30 contest as well and not at night. December 6th we can see Alabama and Florida duke it out. Looking forward to getting 7 points with Bama then hopefully after more Gator love. And yes, I pimped Florida all off-season as a darkhorse NC contender

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So, imma laying 38 in this Arizona game. You couldn't add up the aggregate total of all of Tru's chalk plays this year and come up with that number. Thats how big it is. I cannot remember how long its been since I layed this amount. The thing is, it has value..lmao. First of all, Wazzou over the course of the past 4 games is averaging 4 ppg. Thats sexy. That white flag has been thrown. They do not care. They rank 112th in defense and 119th in offense. Worst BCS team of all-time. Low moral up there and they just want to get the season done. Arizona is a top defensive ballclub by the numbers. Again, thats just numbers. That being said, if they show up Wazzou prolly gets shutout wih maybe a garbage 7. I see Arizona getting short fields and plenty of opportunities to score early and often. Teams score TD's against wazzou, not FG's a good majority of the time. Zona averages over 36 ppg while Wazzou gives up around 49 ppg. Thats a nice little recipe. Woodshed baby.

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Ah yes, the Michigan fade begins. This is all about this defense. You can talk about the offense and how it shows flashes and this that and looks like garbage at other times but the bottom line is this defense sucks. They are calling for Shaffers head after this lst game. Its not all him but mainly him. They put in the 3-3-5 in two days of practice last week. Well golly gee that worked well. The tackling fundamentals are so poor its sick. Its been showing all year. Don't be suprised by that 42 spot by UM last week either. As Hunt may have said somewhere that was a lot of short fields off kick-returns. Minor looked great again but thats about it. I am not harping on RR or anything. Its a rebuilding year but the defense hs been ever so dissapointing. Now with a bowl outta the question I think they look even more lifeless than last week Saturday up in the dome. Minnesota should be able to score pretty well and hopefully they got id of those inflated heads from last week. I see about a 14 point Minnesota win here. If for some reason Michigan rallies the troops and plays inspired on both sides so be it. Thats a win for the program. Kyle and O-state, of note---people on the Michigan boards are actually clamoring for Ron English to come back..lmao. Thought you would like that.



Editors note: Any comment I made about a loss on ECU, ignore. I started this when game was still 10-3. LMAO, I will take the push.

GL everyone this week.:shake:
 
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Who would have thought that the big play in any week would be laying 38 on a road fav in November?

On Zona and WMU with you.
 
Rj,

prolly the first and only time.

The only way its goes is up. In fact it was 39 last time I checked.
 
On Zona, will be on Ok St, nice number on PSU.

Think Bama is very interesting game and still looking at it.
 
You got me really thinking on WMU..maybe the line goes up a little?

Awesome writeup on UM...I couldn't agree more.
 
Thanks ETG

Bama loses its on Hunt ;)

Just kidding.

Last I saw Hunt line had went from 7.5 to 7.

I actually had more on UM but I was sick of typing..lol
 
BAR I was just commenting on Michigan's defense in Hunt's thread before I saw this. A bad first year was expected in Ann Arbor but I think this is ridiculous. If he doesn't go to a bowl next year I think Rod feels the pressure.

---English had good moments at Michigan. So did Jim Hermann, that guy had some great great defenses, then they hung him out to dry. So did Lloyd, as a defensive coordinator and coach. Lloyd Carr deserves a lot of respect he's a really solid coach and human being and I hope people in Ann Arbor are starting to realize that about now. Only thing "bad" about the defenses at Michigan before this year was the spread and athletic qb dating back to McNabb taking over in the Big House. Still don't know how over the years they didn't make adjustments and get that corrected.

---I like 5 of your picks really well. Western Mich is the only one but can't disagree too much. What we have seen from Illinois is a team that plays down to level of comp and horrible situationally. But if Illinois shows up I like them as there is only one great team in the MAC this year---Ball State. WMU got blown out by Nebraska, CMU is on Indiana level, just think alot of even teams that beat up on each other and not on Big Ten level outside of Ball State.
 
Your right man. I was referring to that comment as how panicked the fans are becoming. Myself, not worried at all. Your right, it does date all the way back to 1998 and the McNabb game. Year after the National Championship and started 0-2 under Brady. They did have some great defenses other than the one year where Henson started the majority. That year they had some crazy shootouts with Northwestern, Purdue and others. As far as Carr, your spot on as far as that goes. He was the old school Bo type coach. Remember, forever for teams like Michigan and Ohio State it was winning "The Game" and going to the Rose Bowl. Thats what the season boiled down too. In the nineties though things changed and in all honesty he didn't adjust as much. It was still the same. I think thats what they want to change now and they will. Michigan is the only program in past 3 decades not to have that down period. Well, its happening and hopefully in two years with Forcier/Beaver at QB as Soph's the offense starts to get going fluidly and the defense has a new approach..lol

I actually went thru and did the same sort of comparisons as far as Mac vs Big Ten. As long as WMU attacks with the pass they can stay in. I look back at the Nebraska game and they struggled. Just like early last year at WVU. They are just a team that gets better as season progresses. The spot is soo great. I gotta bite.
 
Thanks ETG

Bama loses its on Hunt ;)

Just kidding.

Last I saw Hunt line had went from 7.5 to 7.

I actually had more on UM but I was sick of typing..lol


:pillow:

it went from 7.5 to 7 back to 7.5, now it's at 7.
 
lmao arizona.

How bad is washington st ?? lol 58 to stanford in a rainstorm .......

Hiller is an nfl qb. period. Has all the tools. Major qb edge for wmu .... but only edge on the field really. Going to need the spot to do the work for you i think.


i wont tail on bama and i never win an lsu bet unless it is when bluechip pm's me with what he likes...... so you won't be jinxed here.
 
Kyle,

Wazzou might lose to Idaho.

Wyoming would roll them.

SDSU will be a battle(sorry Dmac and horses).

The spot is supreme with WMU, no doubt and I think that helps a lot.
 
Good luck Mr. Maestro of the Association. Looks like you are having a healthy NCAA football season as well.

Really like Iowa, Oklahoma State, and have a lean with Alabama.
 
might as well put this here since you have a play on Minny and you get like triple the views I do..and for good reason :)

This from GBW..

The Michigan "D" is last in the league in
-- scoring defense
-- pass defense (and 10th in pass efficiency defense)
-- 3rd down conversion percentage

U-M is 7th in rushing defense
U-M is 10th in total defense
U-M is 4th in Red Zone Defense, at 76% (this is of course deceptive, lots of TDs-allowed have been from outside the redzone)

But how about Nationally (119 teams)?

Michigan is #90 in total defense (and last in B-10), allowing 393.56 yards per game (USC leads @ 211.63)

Michigan is #96 in scoring defense, allowing 30.9 points per game (USC leads @ 7.1)

Michigan is #64 in rushing defense, allowing 141 yards per game (TCU leads @ 38.9)

Michigan is #101 in pass defense, allowing 252.5 yards per game (USC leads @ 127.5)

Michigan is #85 in pass efficiency defense (USC is #1)

Michigan is #72 in 3rd Down Defense, at 39.7%

Michigan is #27 in Red Zone Defense, at 76% (this is of course deceptive, lots of TDs-allowed have been from outside the redzone)
 
big, early card :shake:

love bama, obviously. like the zona play too. i'm waiting for the 1st half in that game though...as that's been $ against wazzou lately.
against ya on the tech/okie lite game...and not much of an opinion on the others, except that i think those 3 lines (as they currently stand, after the initial movement) are spot on. good luck with em.
 
It only gets worse....


Wide receiver Stonum charged with drunk driving

by John Heuser | The Ann Arbor News Tuesday November 04, 2008, 10:45 AM


Two days after the first touchdown catch of his college career, University of Michigan freshman wide receiver Darryl Stonum was charged with drunken driving and driving on a suspended license.
Stonum, 18, was charged Monday in an incident that occurred at 3:30 a.m. on Sept. 28, according to records in Ann Arbor's 15th District Court.
Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez was not made available for comment Monday afternoon, but athletic department spokesman Bruce Madej said the coach "dealt with this immediately when it came to his attention."
Stonum was suspended by Rodriguez for the team's Oct. 4 game against Illinois for what the coach described at the time as a "violation of team rules." The wide receiver did not start in the Oct. 11 loss to Toledo, but he did play in that game.
For the season, the freshman from Texas has started seven of nine games and caught 10 passes for 123 yards. Stonum's 51-yard touchdown last Saturday against Purdue was the longest reception of his career.
He is scheduled to be arraigned Nov. 19.
 
Hey BAR, have u seen Justin Boren's Halloween costume???

borendouche_thumb.jpg

:36_11_6:
 
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I'm sure BAR will agree with me, Sheridan is the worst qb in div. 1-a football. Decker is a go as well for minny...imma bout to add Minny..Sheridan is that bad..I would take it up to 11.
 
GL this week BAR..

I have very big units on Ala at 2.5 (paid some to get it there).. HAve that one graded out about as high as I've seen, this year certainly.

Jumping off the Iowa train this week.. I sort of like them but I also see a situation where they could get rolled.. Just staying off it but hope it works for you... I got 10 units on a season win bet for them that is looking pretty iffy right now... Put it this way, if they could pull the big SU upset, I would be very happy... At home I give them a punchers chance.
 
Thanks Joe, love the avatar

Hunt is right, Nicky is not a good QB. This one could get real ugly. Funny how RR stance on Feagin has chanegd as injuries moutn at QB spot. No QB ever has sat out Wednesday and started for RR fwiw as reports vary about what happens with Threet this weekend.

Dub, was happy as hell to see you rolling with the Tide. Understandable on Iowa, as you have the future out there. That was obviously a helluva call whether it cashes or not. They just have lost some real tough games.
 
Where do these lines go BAR? Thinking of loading up on these:

Wisky -9'
tOSU -10'
Minny -8 (already on for 1 unit)
MSU -10
 
Where do these lines go BAR? Thinking of loading up on these:

Wisky -9'
tOSU -10'
Minny -8 (already on for 1 unit)
MSU -10


I dunno man. I am very close to adding Wisky.

I would be shocked if tOSU hits a flat 10, but that is a good number if it does.

Minny at 8 is a bargain right now with the QB injury situation.

Weather could be a factor in Sparty game fwiw.
 
Re weather:

<table class="dataTable" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="vaM"><td>Wisconsin Badgers </td><td>Indiana Hoosiers </td><td>Event Details </td><td>12:00 PM EST on November 08, 2008</td> <td class="iconTD">
mostlycloudy.gif
</td> <td>45° F/ 7° C
Mostly Cloudy</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table class="dataTable" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="vaM"><td>Purdue Boilermakers </td><td>Michigan State Spartans </td><td>Event Details </td><td>12:00 PM EST on November 08, 2008</td> <td class="iconTD">
rain.gif
</td> <td>41° F/ 5° C
Rain Showers</td></tr></tbody></table>

<table class="dataTable" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="vaM"><td>Ohio State Buckeyes </td><td>Northwestern Wildcats </td><td>Event Details </td><td>11:00 AM CST on November 08, 2008</td> <td class="iconTD">
chancesnow.gif
</td> <td>40° F/ 4° C
Chance of Snow</td></tr></tbody></table>
Minny is obviously in a dome. They are calling for snow.
 
BAR just wanna let you know this is the sexiest card I've seen on the board.

Wouldn't be surprised to see you hit 80% or something ridiculous this week.

Should be on Arizona myself.

Good Luck to us we share alot.
 
GL BAR .

Was laying of the Illini game but at 5-4 this game is huge for them. They host Ohio State and play @ Northwestern . They lose here and going to a BOWL is in jeopardy . Think this is a must win. LAckluster ticket sales and early start really kill any edge they have playing at Ford IMO. Top it off with WMU weak on the road struggling in all 4 vs teams less talented then ILL. Losing @CMU and @ Neb , winning by 4 @ Temple and in OT vs Buffalo after getting 2 late TDs to tie it up.......
 
love the adds bro go get em and keep it up in bball. this is the best forum for nba hands down from what i have seen
 
Thanks guys...

Added an under in Iowa City..

GL today..be back for the late, late games
 
Well, not as damaging as I thought it was. Felt a lot worse but I also was just praying for a push on Alabama.

Did really well in the Big-10 sans the Michigan play. The defense finally played a game..they made plays and tackled. They played a FULL game. Never saw it coming. Sheridan was very solid. Never saw that coming. Unreal.

Too many points in Iowa City. Thought it would be more low-scoring.

Wazzou had around 200 yards and put up 28 points. Unreal is all I can say.

Texas Tech is proving right now they belong. Wow, great effort.

Overall 5-6 (3.40 units)
 
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