Week Número Three Leans, Thoughts, Plays.
- Thread starter Inspekdah
- Start date
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
Leans:
Small 2.5, Medium 5, Large 10x....just leans as of right now.
Texas Tech Small/Medium
Michigan -37 Medium
ECU +7.5 Medium
Rutgers -27 Medium
Under 43 @ USC Medium
Johny Football +8 Medium/Large
Under @ Penn St 51 Medium/Large
UCF +6 Medium
FSU -32.5 Small
K State -39 Medium
Marshall -8 Small
Northern Illy -28 Medium
LSU -37.5 Medium
Zona -26 Medium
Zona St -4.5 Medium
Small 2.5, Medium 5, Large 10x....just leans as of right now.
Texas Tech Small/Medium
Michigan -37 Medium
ECU +7.5 Medium
Rutgers -27 Medium
Under 43 @ USC Medium
Johny Football +8 Medium/Large
Under @ Penn St 51 Medium/Large
UCF +6 Medium
FSU -32.5 Small
K State -39 Medium
Marshall -8 Small
Northern Illy -28 Medium
LSU -37.5 Medium
Zona -26 Medium
Zona St -4.5 Medium
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
GL this weekend, bud.
D
dilaudid8
Guest
in great record keep WINNING BOL
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
Thanks guys, it's appreciated.:cheers:
I usually do very well first few weeks. I target teams I think suck and on top of that are down and keep going against them until it proves wrong. That's been the case with Idaho and UMass. Two shit programs going through a drop off in talent.
What I saw with TCU a week ago proved to be right. Team cannot pass the ball effectively and they do not stress the running game enough. TTech played poorly and still won by 2 scores. TCU is in trouble.
Akron is not as bad as in years past and actually appear to be faster, etc. than in years past but this UM team is really rolling right now. UCF basically slammed on the breaks vs Akron and still won by 31. Michigan proved to me in Game 1 of the year that they can continue to add on in these types if situations. Will probably remain a medium play.
VTech defense is nasty and I was on them last week -41 which covered but I was fortunate. This team struggles to move the ball vs poor FCS schools. I know someone who says their WR core has only 1 athlete who is a clear cut FBS level talent and the rest are below average. Logan is crap. Alabama and their power pro style offense played right into a VTech type defense. ECU will spread them out in space and come away with enough scores in my opinion to cover.
If you can stop the run, I will bet you against EMU. Rutgers is nasty against the run and that will extend games making 4 scores relatively easy. Penn St's offense is not more explosive than Rutgers either. I think EMU is another crap program on the down and I'll look to cash twice in a row fading them.
UCF is for real. If this was at home I'd take them double large. On the road ill go big on under and the points. I'll also reverse those 2.
FSU.. Seem for real. Could run the table. Nevada in a transition year. Wonder how they score. After Pitt's initial drive things got real difficult for them and they were at home and vastly more talented than Nevada.
K State is a fade of UMass. The worst team in FBS.
N Illy is a fade of Idaho. The 2nd worst FBS team.
LSU? Kent to me seems like the perfect type of team that can grind out conference games, etc. But they will be playing from behind without their best player in a run first offense. I see picks, turnovers, and a lack of scoring. LSU big and reversed with the over.
Im 2 for 2 with Marshall and I'll go again.
Zona? Okie St slammed on the breaks like I've never seen last week defensively and continued to score easily with backups. Rich Rod not as nice a guy. I was lucky to cover with UTSA last week but they won't cover this week.
Zona St? Wisky's passing game is hurt. And Zona St's front 7 is disgusting. I see a lot of 3rd downs. On the other hand I think year 2 in this system for Zona St's offense will get enough points on the board to see the cover occur.
No lean in tonight's game right now.
Back no later than 11 to update the unit risk for potential plays.
I usually do very well first few weeks. I target teams I think suck and on top of that are down and keep going against them until it proves wrong. That's been the case with Idaho and UMass. Two shit programs going through a drop off in talent.
What I saw with TCU a week ago proved to be right. Team cannot pass the ball effectively and they do not stress the running game enough. TTech played poorly and still won by 2 scores. TCU is in trouble.
Akron is not as bad as in years past and actually appear to be faster, etc. than in years past but this UM team is really rolling right now. UCF basically slammed on the breaks vs Akron and still won by 31. Michigan proved to me in Game 1 of the year that they can continue to add on in these types if situations. Will probably remain a medium play.
VTech defense is nasty and I was on them last week -41 which covered but I was fortunate. This team struggles to move the ball vs poor FCS schools. I know someone who says their WR core has only 1 athlete who is a clear cut FBS level talent and the rest are below average. Logan is crap. Alabama and their power pro style offense played right into a VTech type defense. ECU will spread them out in space and come away with enough scores in my opinion to cover.
If you can stop the run, I will bet you against EMU. Rutgers is nasty against the run and that will extend games making 4 scores relatively easy. Penn St's offense is not more explosive than Rutgers either. I think EMU is another crap program on the down and I'll look to cash twice in a row fading them.
UCF is for real. If this was at home I'd take them double large. On the road ill go big on under and the points. I'll also reverse those 2.
FSU.. Seem for real. Could run the table. Nevada in a transition year. Wonder how they score. After Pitt's initial drive things got real difficult for them and they were at home and vastly more talented than Nevada.
K State is a fade of UMass. The worst team in FBS.
N Illy is a fade of Idaho. The 2nd worst FBS team.
LSU? Kent to me seems like the perfect type of team that can grind out conference games, etc. But they will be playing from behind without their best player in a run first offense. I see picks, turnovers, and a lack of scoring. LSU big and reversed with the over.
Im 2 for 2 with Marshall and I'll go again.
Zona? Okie St slammed on the breaks like I've never seen last week defensively and continued to score easily with backups. Rich Rod not as nice a guy. I was lucky to cover with UTSA last week but they won't cover this week.
Zona St? Wisky's passing game is hurt. And Zona St's front 7 is disgusting. I see a lot of 3rd downs. On the other hand I think year 2 in this system for Zona St's offense will get enough points on the board to see the cover occur.
No lean in tonight's game right now.
Back no later than 11 to update the unit risk for potential plays.
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
I like ucf too. Looking forward to contrasting athletic level in game. I see you lean Rutgers. Man they looked dynamic against fresno. Maybe 1st half -13.5 or something. I was impressed a great deal by their play making. Nova is real good trigger man.
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
Thanks guys. GL with your plays also!
Kentucky +16 5x Just betting a line where I am getting 3 points more than the adjusted sharp line of +13.
ECU +9 10x This might be a sucker underdog bet of the week but I need to see VTech move the ball. I would put 8 in the box and let this terrible receiving core and make Logan play like he was supposed to coming into college.
Rutgers -28 10x EMU is dogshit and can't run the ball vs. FCS teams. They'll be unable to run vs. this young and athletic defensive front and that means a slow paced game clock wise and the potential for big turnovers. Something Rutgers showed they could get vs. Fresno in Week 1. Too much speed/talent. EMU wore down last week and they will again.
Will likely add Michigan (play on team/homer until they don't cover) in a few. Want line to drop more.
Kentucky +16 5x Just betting a line where I am getting 3 points more than the adjusted sharp line of +13.
ECU +9 10x This might be a sucker underdog bet of the week but I need to see VTech move the ball. I would put 8 in the box and let this terrible receiving core and make Logan play like he was supposed to coming into college.
Rutgers -28 10x EMU is dogshit and can't run the ball vs. FCS teams. They'll be unable to run vs. this young and athletic defensive front and that means a slow paced game clock wise and the potential for big turnovers. Something Rutgers showed they could get vs. Fresno in Week 1. Too much speed/talent. EMU wore down last week and they will again.
Will likely add Michigan (play on team/homer until they don't cover) in a few. Want line to drop more.
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
Michigan -37.5 10x Bad line but I've won 40x betting on Michigan Weeks 1 & 2 as I believe they are the cream of the B10 and have a coach not afraid to lay it on. They turned it over a bunch and still won by 50 vs. CMU. Akron is improved vs. last year but can't run the ball. Equals a long game.
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3 PM looking at USC. I like BC this year and they are improved but this is a season defining moment for a USC squad that has a great defense and BC's offense is still vanilla.
330 - FSU. If UCLA can hang 58 on Nevada what will FSU do? Plus, Pitt looks capable of moving the ball vs. a crap team. Pitt couldn't do anything vs. FSU after the initial drive.
A&M - +9 I'll take the dog.
500 - North Illinois. Fade Idaho.
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3 PM looking at USC. I like BC this year and they are improved but this is a season defining moment for a USC squad that has a great defense and BC's offense is still vanilla.
330 - FSU. If UCLA can hang 58 on Nevada what will FSU do? Plus, Pitt looks capable of moving the ball vs. a crap team. Pitt couldn't do anything vs. FSU after the initial drive.
A&M - +9 I'll take the dog.
500 - North Illinois. Fade Idaho.
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Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
Ole Miss +2.5 15x
ML +120 10x
For tracking purposes only the spread will be recorded in record but all unit risked are counted.
Missed posting and actually playing my POD which was UCF spread and ML each for 10x. Got caught up with some stuff and my local has weird rules with times I can send in (1 hour before or less). Would have been a +25 unit hit if I risked 10 for each. But Ole Miss came through big time to keep me profitable for the day.
Week 3: 9-7 +42x
ML +120 10x
For tracking purposes only the spread will be recorded in record but all unit risked are counted.
Missed posting and actually playing my POD which was UCF spread and ML each for 10x. Got caught up with some stuff and my local has weird rules with times I can send in (1 hour before or less). Would have been a +25 unit hit if I risked 10 for each. But Ole Miss came through big time to keep me profitable for the day.
Week 3: 9-7 +42x
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Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
This would have covered with ease had he not gotten hurt. Dodd is terrible.... tough loss/beat there.
