Week Long Thread

1

165yds

Pretty much a regular
I never fear the Heat and neither should you.

2-6 ats as a DD fav and coming off a SU win at home.

Jazz 5-2 ats as a DD dog. After dropping their first 5 off of a DD loss they are 4-3 ats since.

4-10 ats last year in the game before revenge like we have with Indy. I don't want to make too much of how they are looking at Indy, Heat don't play many big regular season games and yes this is probably one they are looking at but so over blown imho.

Heat 1-7 ats at home against teams with a losing record last 8. This is the most important stat, it shows me that the Heat doesn't care about sending messages and why should they. They have nothing to prove, the turn it on when they have to and no point in killing yourself during the regular season.

No team in the league pays a 1.5 pt tax on a nightly basis. It's almost impossible for them to have a strong ats record at home with these ridiculous spreads.

Coming off these long road trips is tough especially on the second game when you are home, 2-4 ats last year. They did have 3 days off though on this recent road trip so can't really take it too serious but in the future it might be good to know.

The open was soft imho. How so when it's in the 13pt range? Cavs were -12.5, Suns -12.5 two weeks ago, Wiz -12.5 this should be at least -14. It should go to -13.5 and that's the number I want.

Jazz have been beaten by DD every other night and could easily lose by 30 but the Heat doesn't give two shits about Utah and why should they? Should be another sleepwalking bore where they win by 10 and let the Jazz stay somewhat competitive. Too many things in the Jazz favor for me to ignore. Will wait for 13.5.

Will also carry over my last two wins on the Nets and take them ML. The plan is to roll it over and take the points as a dog and ML as a fav and end it after the Bucks game. The roll over plan is 8 games which this is the third, yeah yeah I know it's dumb.

38-27 ats
 
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How does the Pistons rebound after that loss? They let Portland steal it. There are losses and those that carry over this falls into the latter. Pacers are 6-0 ats coming off an ats loss. 8-1 ats on one day rest which isn't a big deal but nice to have on your side if you like Indy. Last year 4-0 ats before the Heat game so don't tell me look ahead which is why I hate when people bring it up like it's a great reason to take or fade a team. This year they got blown out before the Heat but last game of a long road trip on OKC and that was a throw away. My problem is 2-2 ats as a DD fav, so tough to cover DD spreads and no rush to ever take a big fav in this league, not how you make money.

Wish the Knicks were playing anybody but the Wiz because they for whatever reason own them at the Garden.

Will be on just the Jazz and Nets ML.
 
Agree with your thoughts.. expect to see a Heat team that doesn't put forth much effort at all.. I already played the Jazz and the Pacers... horrible loss for Detroit yesterday. Good luck!
 
Eh.

Misread the line move, what else is new.

Jazz +12.5.

Tomorrow the Cats are my play. First time all year I get to fade the Kings coming off a SU win as a dog at home and on the road next game. Clear and obvious flat spot for the Kings.

Kings coming off a DD win 1-7 ats.

Cats have lost three in row and huge 5 game set with 4 winnable games, they need to find a way to split at Toronto and at Detroit or the season will quickly slip away.

They are at home with 2 days (3-1 ats) rest while the Kings travel off their first win in the Rudy Yag era.

Really couldn't ask for a better spot play.
 
Good commentary. Agree with Jazz and with the Bobs tomorrow, that will be on my card for sure. Good luck tonight
 
I hate doing this but the Cats are a no play.

The worst number of any open for a fav is -2. No matter which way it goes it sucks. I track open and closing numbers and was really disappointed at the open. I had this at -4 and for my line to be this off much shouts off alarms everywhere. There is no way this line should open at -2, none. That is a ridiculously weak open for the fav.

I'm done with Utah. Outside of Philly which is having historically one of the worst years in terms of defense in the history of the league Utah is almost as bad. They are officially a team I will no longer be looking at. They are spot free, they lose by 20 on the regular. They go from up 3 at the half and promptly get outscored by 26 in the 2nd half.

Did the Nets have to score 130? Geesh I'll be on them tomorrow on the ML but that was not what I was looking for. Game looked like a scrimmage and turned it off 3 minutes in 3rd quarter because I knew it was over.

Wish SA would have won last night, going to make taking the Suns difficult tomorrow. On the flip side it makes fading the Clippers tomorrow very strong.
 
This season the Bobcats playing off a SU loss are 10-3 ATS. They are also 3-1 ATS on 2 days rest and the Kings have Atlanta tomorrow who has beaten them 11 in a row. GL
 
I hate doing it but Kings +2. It's a line play/system play for me. I am obviously missing something, just not sure what.

From now on I will not be talking about taking a play until I do. I will do a write up for a game the night before and get my thoughts down and post after I bet it. Dumb to say I will take the Cats and boom now I'm on the Kings.

There is nothing about the GS to like if you look at the numbers. I was shocked to see them, a team struggling to cover anything right now at home this big a fav. Are the oddsmakers telling us that GS is better than Denver? Please. It's one of the strongest lines I've seen this year. My line was 6 tops again two points off, when my line and the open is this far off usually it tells me it's a strong line and I am missing something. What am I missing? Not sure but I've noticed the Pelicans struggle big time against fast teams who play up tempo. Take a look at their last 15 or so games and show me the SU win against a good scoring team. Most of their wins are against ave. paced or slow plodding offenses. The open is telling me the Pelicans have a beat down coming.

Kings +2

GS -8

38-28 ats
 
Could work out for both. I played Bobcats minus 25 cents pick because when Kings play on the road on Tuesday

<tbody>
[TD="width: 100%"]SACRAMENTO IS 1-19 SU AND 12-7-1 ATS IN THESE GAMES.[/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="width: 10%"]DATE[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]HOME[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]PTS[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]AWAY[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]PTS[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]SU RESULT[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]H LINE[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]ATS RESULT[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]O/U[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]O/U RESULT[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]02/26/2013[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]MIA[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]141[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]SAC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]129[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-15[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]209[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]02/12/2013[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]MEM[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]108[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]SAC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]101[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]-11[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]190[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]01/01/2013[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]DET[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]103[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]SAC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]97[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-7[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]195½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]04/24/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]OKC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]118[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]SAC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]110[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]-10½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]211[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]04/10/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]DAL[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]110[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]SAC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]100[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-9[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]202½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]02/21/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]MIA[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]120[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]SAC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]108[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]-13½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]201½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]02/14/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]CHI[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]121[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]SAC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]115[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-11½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]186½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]02/07/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]MIN[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]86[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]SAC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]84[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]-7[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]197[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]01/31/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]GS[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]93[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]SAC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]90[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-7[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]198[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]01/10/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]PHI[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]112[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]SAC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]85[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]-9½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]197½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]01/03/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]MEM[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]113[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]SAC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]96[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-6½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]190½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]12/27/2011[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]POR[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]101[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]SAC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]79[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]-8½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]195½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]04/05/2011[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]HOU[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]101[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]SAC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]104[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-8½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]219[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]02/22/2011[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]MIA[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]117[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]SAC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]97[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]-12½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]204[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]02/15/2011[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]OKC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]126[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]SAC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]96[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]207[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]01/11/2011[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]WAS[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]136[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]SAC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]133[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]-7[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]196[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]12/14/2010[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]HOU[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]118[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]SAC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]105[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-9½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]203[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]04/13/2010[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]LAL[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]106[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]SAC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]100[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]-8[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]196[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]03/30/2010[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]IND[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]102[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]SAC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]95[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-7[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]P[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]207½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]03/09/2010[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]POR[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]88[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]SAC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]81[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]-9[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]198[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

</tbody>
 
Good stuff Tuck, one point loss is fine with me.

Obviously I will be rooting for the Kings tonight but it would set up a very strong angle against Atlanta. Never fear the back to back because you always get 1 point minimum line value you wouldn't normally get and usually gets pushed another half point so it's important to look at each team and spot before blindly saying BB is a bad spot. 1.5 points in this league is more valuable than gold. I'll admit I have no read on Atlanta at all.

Will be on the Nets ML tomorrow, game 4 of the rollover of 8.

Was really rooting for SA yesterday because it's so tough to fade them coming off a SU loss. 5-0 SU, 4-1 ats and 3-0 ats on the road. This is the biggest game for the Suns in years. They are for real, the way those two gaurds slash to the hoop it puts so much pressure on the bigs and sets up so many open jumpers. I love how gritty they are and play defense. Suns covered 5 in a row and SU and that place should be rocking tomorrow. Suns now 17-5 ats and you know the line will be them getting more than 3 which is a joke. The problem I never get involved in SA games is you ever notice when people cap their games they never talk about anything other than what Pop is going to do. It's so hard to get a read on him, just when you think you have it all figured out he changes it up. Spurs haven't had BB losses this year, but are coming into a stretch where they've played 4 in 6 and third road game in a row and playing GS the next night with OKC at home. How does Pop handle these next two games? What games does he go after?

Clips coming off a brutal 7 game road trip and playing the Spurs ensured they were going to fire on all cylinders and bring plenty of emotion and energy. Tomorrow the Clips will have played 9 games in 14 days with 7 on the road. One of those throw away games each team in this league has but I go back to the Pelicans struggles against faced paced teams. Pelicans cover tonight I might have to take them tomorrow because of the angle in play. Very very tough game for me but interested in more ways than one on how they play tonight.

Bulls are now a disgusting 7-16 ats. The oddsmakers will ensure they start to cover some games by giving out an extra bucket and rightfully so. At some point they are going to get hot and start covering games like I thought with the Nets and Cavs which I said in last weeks thread. When is the question and usually the schedule dictates when teams get hot and go on a run. 4 in 6 for the Rockets coming off a 3 game road trip back for one and on the road in Indy. Do the Rockets care about Indy, probably not so I won't so it's a big game for them. Not when you play them twice a year. Will be interested in this line, got a feeling the oddsmakers will give us a ridiculous number and giving Rockets backers a heavy tax.

Just babbling looking over tomorrows card.
 
Kings is a great play tonight. Most of the Tuesdsy stuff there shows great effort as DD dogs. Plus no one on this roster significantly had anything to do with those results besides Cousin.
 
May be adding GS. This season when playing on the road NO has no covers except for SU wins
 
Not sure how to say thanks without it accidentally sounding like being a dick, but your post from last night is a large part of the reason I was heavily invested in the Cats today...so thanks for that and your contributions to the forum, and sorry to see the change of heart that occurred today
 
nice call on GSW last night...i like where your head is at with PHX....i think this is a great spot for them would like to get 4 or 4.5 may buy a half point of something. i like your postion on the nets i think they win that game for sure...but scared to lay the 5.5 - ML is a good option in a ML parlay with dallas

love this site - its the only site with consistant good talk about the nba on a daily basis
 
I wrote this yesterday.

Clips coming off a brutal 7 game road trip and playing the Spurs ensured they were going to fire on all cylinders and bring plenty of emotion and energy. Tomorrow the Clips will have played 9 games in 14 days with 7 on the road. One of those throw away games each team in this league has but I go back to the Pelicans struggles against faced paced teams. Pelicans cover tonight I might have to take them tomorrow because of the angle in play. Very very tough game for me but interested in more ways than one on how they play tonight.


It's never the first game back off a long trip that's the flat spot it's the second game at home. If they are in the same conference the angle becomes even stronger. The angle dies though if the team has more than 2 days rest. I hate taking the Pelicans because they of their inability against fast teams but this line is way too high.

Clips 0-2 ats as DD fav.

3 days rest after tonight. Often I read how you will get maximum effort because of the rest coming up. I tend to think the opposite. When you know you have a vacation at work do you work harder or not the usual? Do you work your optimum Friday 4pm or Tuesday 10am? I'd buy that if they had rest coming into the spot but they haven't had two days off in forever. Clips come out with nothing tonight.

Pelicans +10.5

Raps situation is funny. They got rid of Yag to tank. What happened is the team got much better. They'll get rid of Lowry to make sure they lose but as of now this is a playoff team in the Eastern Conference. For the first time all year they are actually running sets and not just clearing it out for Yag. Ball movement has been crisp, everybody is touching it and they are running pick and rolls with both big men for the first time this year. Since Yag 3-1 SU and ats and 2-0 since the Kings players got there. The most amazing thing is averaging 23 assists and coming off a season high 26 assists on 40 FG's against the Bulls who are top 3 in defense. Nobody is ball hogging, no one took more than 14 shots last game. Ave. 104 ppg post Yag. One of four teams with a higher points for than against. Take all of the Raps numbers pre Rudy and throw them out the window, they mean nothing with this new team.

Cats are 8-1-1 ats on the road but that number will start to crash now. Still one of the worst teams on offense. They are 4th in defense efficiency.

Cats are not great off a SU win, 3-8 SU and 4-6-1 ats

One team has 3 days rest while the other on a BB and are 2-3 ats.

I would argue the Cats are in the most difficult spot of anyone tonight. Raps by DD.

Toronto -7

39-30 ats

Game 4 of 8 in the Nets rollover. Nets ML.





 
No play on Indy not sure what to make of the drama queens play tonight.

Bulls are on my radar tonight. Have some stuff on them later.
 
Since Rose went down the Bulls have the worst offense in the NBA outside of the Bucks and by only .2 of a point. Last 12 how is 3-9 SU and ats. 7 game ats lossing streak basically any number you want against the Bulls is there for the taking . They have the worst guards in the league and zero creativity anywhere on the court. One thing they can always hang their hat on is they still have the 3rd best defense in the league and it shows up nearly every night. During this horrific run this is the first time I see a decent line on them, they've been favored a staggering 8 times but 2-2 ats as a dog. I've read quite a bit about them the last two games and it's crystal clear they have reached rock bottom losing at home to Orlando. Reminds me of the Nets loss by 30 to the Knicks. Last weeks thread I thought the Cavs and Nets would start to cover some games, it's now the Bulls turn. The oddsmakers are so smart they usually give value to teams who start to go bad because the last thing they want to see is a long streak. I hate to make excuses for pro teams because there is no such thing as moral victories but almost every game during this streak has been close because of the defense that's always there.

Rockets coming off a road loss 2-3 ats at home. They remind me of GS and one of the most overvalued home teams in the league. Lets not forget the Rockets have their own issues having covered only 2 of 8 ats.

You guys who say Lin being out is a good thing are nuts. They need him out there if anything to handle the ball and give Harden a break. They guy plays 40+ minutes a night and is banged up not even close to a 100%. Parsons who is the key to this team is also playing hurt.

Geesh getting 8 with the Bulls is very very generous.
 
I will say this... the way Hinrich's been shooting the ball has left 5-6 points a game off the scoreboard. Sometimes wide open coming off screens and just bricking. Shooting in the high 20's % wise. That's pretty bad. His defense is solid and he runs the offense well... but if Augustine can shoot 35% it will help the Bulls with their spacing.
 
Going to fade a bad team off a tough loss and now on the road with only one day of rest. Bucks know they aren't going to win many games and they let the Knicks off the hook which is what bad teams do. Looking for a Cavs blowout win.

Cavs -7.5

If you read the OP you know how I feel about the Heat as a DD fav. Coming off a great comeback win and beating Indy to now only face the Kings is a flat spot. This is tricky and they may have to fight hard just to win it.

Kings +10.5

No reason to not take the Cats right now. Playing with confidence, can easily see them winning SU.

Cats +6.5

Write ups lame but don't have time right now.

39-33 ats
 
Busy right now so real quick been brutal this week as I completely suck.

Philly +2.5

Denver +8.5

Utah +4.5

40-35 ats

I know I said I was done with them but this is the proper side.
 
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