WEEK FEEFTEEN
- Thread starter mrpickem
- Start date
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
--- NFL ---
WEEK 13 [14-11 +12.32u]
WEEK 14 [11-10 +5.5u]
----------------------
SEASON [127-128 -1.5u]
LAST [2-0 +7u]
MONDAY
4.12/4 PATRIOTS -2 -103 3/12/3 CARDINALS u44 -104Finished 2nd straight winning week Monday and almost in the green on the year. :cowboy:
THURSDAY
- 5/4.55 49ers -3 -110
- 4/3.85 Seahawks u43 -104
- 1/0.88 1Q-Seahawks u7½ -113
randoms...
- SEA HAS BEEN THE MONEY TEAM IN PRIME-TIME, GOING 20-10-1 66.7% ATS OVER THE LAST 7 YEARS AT NIGHT, BUT ONLY 6-8-1 ATS IN LAST 15. ALSO ONLY 2-5 ATS IN LAST 7 IN DIVISION AT NIGHT. (8-9 ATS IN DIV OVERALL SINCE 2021)
- SF ONLY 14-15 SU & ATS LAST 7 YEARS IN PRIME-TIME BUT HAVE WARMED UP LATELY: 6-3 ATS LAST 9 @NIGHT WHILE WINNING 6 OF LAST 7 NIGHTS GAMES IN DIVISION, WELL 5-2 SU BUT 6-1 ATS, AND THAT'S ALL THAT REALLY MATTERS.
- PRIME-TIME GAMES WITH TOTALS UNDER 45 HAVE CASHED THE UNDER 12 STAIGHT! TOTAL IS 14-33-2 29.8% LAST 7 YEARS @NIGHT WHEN TOTAL < 45.
- AWAY TEAMS AHEAD OF OVER 7 DAYS REST HAVE CASHED 61.7% 29-18 OVER LAST 13 MONTHS. bityl.co/GD8y and 58% 2018-22 73-53. bityl.co/GD9E
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
--- NFL ---
WEEK 14 [11-10 +5.5u]
WEEK 15 [3-0 +9.28u]----------------------
SEASON [130-128 +7.78u]
LAST [3-0 +9.28u]
THURSDAY
5/4.55 49ers -3 -110
4/3.85 Seahawks u43 -104
1/0.88 1Q-Seahawks u7½ -113
SATURDAY
randoms...
BUF 13-7-1 65% ATS WHEN 7-14 POINT FAV OVER L7 YEARS BUT ONLY 1-4 IN LAST 5
BAL 31-23-1 58.2% ATS IN GAMES W/LINE <=4 OVER LAST 7 YEARS (13-4-1 ATS AS DOG)
CLE 21-27-1 43.8% ATS IN GAMES W/LINE <=4 OVER LAST 7 YEARS (6-11-1 ATS AS FAV)
MIN 36-29-2 55.4% ATS IN GAMES W/LINE <=4 OVER LAST 7 YEARS (22-14-2 ATS AS FAV)
MIA 1-6 ATS DOG OVER 3 @NIGHT LAST 7 YEARS INC 15-27 LOSS AT CIN WHEN +7 9/29/22
CLE 5-12 29.4% ATS IN DIV L3 YEARS
CLE 9-5-1 64.3% ATS IN DIV L3 YEARS
STATS FROM L365 DAYS AT SITE (H/A)
WEEK 14 [11-10 +5.5u]
WEEK 15 [3-0 +9.28u]----------------------
SEASON [130-128 +7.78u]
LAST [3-0 +9.28u]
THURSDAY
5/4.55 49ers -3 -1104/3.85 Seahawks u43 -1041/0.88 1Q-Seahawks u7½ -113
SATURDAY
- 4/4.16 BROWNS -3 +104
- 6/5.71 BROWNS u38½ -105
- 4/3.85 COLTS +3½ -104
- 4.20/4 BILLS (BUF) u43½ -105
randoms...
BUF 13-7-1 65% ATS WHEN 7-14 POINT FAV OVER L7 YEARS BUT ONLY 1-4 IN LAST 5
BAL 31-23-1 58.2% ATS IN GAMES W/LINE <=4 OVER LAST 7 YEARS (13-4-1 ATS AS DOG)
CLE 21-27-1 43.8% ATS IN GAMES W/LINE <=4 OVER LAST 7 YEARS (6-11-1 ATS AS FAV)
MIN 36-29-2 55.4% ATS IN GAMES W/LINE <=4 OVER LAST 7 YEARS (22-14-2 ATS AS FAV)
MIA 1-6 ATS DOG OVER 3 @NIGHT LAST 7 YEARS INC 15-27 LOSS AT CIN WHEN +7 9/29/22
CLE 5-12 29.4% ATS IN DIV L3 YEARS
CLE 9-5-1 64.3% ATS IN DIV L3 YEARS
STATS FROM L365 DAYS AT SITE (H/A)
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
--- NFL ---
WEEK 14 [11-10 +5.50u]
WEEK 15 [6-2 +13.80u]
----------------------
SEASON [133-130 +12.3u]
LAST [3-2 +4.52u]
SATURDAY
4/4.16 BROWNS -3 +104
6/5.71 BROWNS u38½ -105
4/3.85 COLTS +3½ -104
4.20/4 BILLS u43½ -105
5/4.95 BILLS -7-101
SUNDAY
randoms...
NO 32-23 58.2% ATS WHEN GAME LINED 4 OR LESS LAST 7 YEARS BUT 4-8 IN L12
DET 8-3 ATS WHEN GAME LINED 4 OR LESS L11 GAMES AND HAVE COVERED LAST 5
NYJ 5-13 ATS WHEN GAME LINED 4 OR LESS L18 GAMES AND 0-3 LAST 3
PIT 31-22-1 58.5% ATS WHEN GAME LINED 4 OR LESS LAST 7 YEARS AND 6-3-1 IN L10
CAR 5-1 ATS WHEN GAME LINED 4 OR LESS L6 GAMES BUT JUST 6-10 IN L16
JAX 18-37-1 32.7% ATS WHEN GAME LINED 4 OR LESS LAST 7 YEARS - 4-5 THIS YEAR
DEN 27-36-5 42.9% ATS WHEN GAME LINED 4 OR LESS LAST 7 YEARS - 3-6 THIS YEAR
AZ 24-33 42.1% ATS WHEN GAME LINED 4 OR LESS LAST 7 YEARS - 4-6 THIS YEAR
TEN 11-6 64.7% ATS WHEN GAME LINED 4 OR LESS LAST 2 YEARS - 7-2 THIS YEAR
CIN 31-24-3 56.4% ATS WHEN GAME LINED 4 OR LESS LAST 7 YEARS - 7-1 THIS YEAR
TB 23-36-4 39% ATS WHEN GAME LINED 4 OR LESS LAST 7 YEARS - 3-6-1 THIS YEAR
The most overrated team in the NFL this season (TB, 3-9-1 ATS) hosts the most underrated (CIN, 10-3 ATS). It’s an ATS trend player’s dream scenario, a no-brainer with “send it in on Cincinnati!” written all over it. However, off a hard-fought win vs division-rival Cleveland, the first CIN win vs CLE in the last six tries, they're asked to travel into non-conference territory against a first-place opponent which, a)needs the game, b) when last seen, was getting its butt kicked in San Francisco. Underestimating the possible combined effect of an embarrassing road loss on a decent home team prompting a huge follow-up, as a divisional win against a rival that’s had its number tends to precede a regression, lol. The Bengals may beat the Bucs, who seem like they are no longer tough enough, can’t be led by Tom Brady anymore, and won’t respond to whatever it is to which Bowles may resort. When it looks too easy...it usually isn't. Backing the BUCS.
WEEK 14 [11-10 +5.50u]
WEEK 15 [6-2 +13.80u]
----------------------
SEASON [133-130 +12.3u]
LAST [3-2 +4.52u]
SATURDAY
4/4.16 BROWNS -3 +1046/5.71 BROWNS u38½ -1054/3.85 COLTS +3½ -1044.20/4 BILLS u43½ -1055/4.95 BILLS -7-101SUNDAY
- 3/2.86 SAINTS u43½ -105
- 5/4.76 LIONS +1½ -105
- 4/3.96 CHIEFS -14½ -101
- 3/2.91 TEXANS u48½ -103
- 4/3.81 BEARS u48½ -105
- 5/4.35 STEELERS +3 -115
- 4/3.81 PANTHERS u37½ -105
- 4/3.85 COWBOYS -4 -104
randoms...
NO 32-23 58.2% ATS WHEN GAME LINED 4 OR LESS LAST 7 YEARS BUT 4-8 IN L12
DET 8-3 ATS WHEN GAME LINED 4 OR LESS L11 GAMES AND HAVE COVERED LAST 5
NYJ 5-13 ATS WHEN GAME LINED 4 OR LESS L18 GAMES AND 0-3 LAST 3
PIT 31-22-1 58.5% ATS WHEN GAME LINED 4 OR LESS LAST 7 YEARS AND 6-3-1 IN L10
CAR 5-1 ATS WHEN GAME LINED 4 OR LESS L6 GAMES BUT JUST 6-10 IN L16
JAX 18-37-1 32.7% ATS WHEN GAME LINED 4 OR LESS LAST 7 YEARS - 4-5 THIS YEAR
DEN 27-36-5 42.9% ATS WHEN GAME LINED 4 OR LESS LAST 7 YEARS - 3-6 THIS YEAR
AZ 24-33 42.1% ATS WHEN GAME LINED 4 OR LESS LAST 7 YEARS - 4-6 THIS YEAR
TEN 11-6 64.7% ATS WHEN GAME LINED 4 OR LESS LAST 2 YEARS - 7-2 THIS YEAR
CIN 31-24-3 56.4% ATS WHEN GAME LINED 4 OR LESS LAST 7 YEARS - 7-1 THIS YEAR
TB 23-36-4 39% ATS WHEN GAME LINED 4 OR LESS LAST 7 YEARS - 3-6-1 THIS YEAR
The most overrated team in the NFL this season (TB, 3-9-1 ATS) hosts the most underrated (CIN, 10-3 ATS). It’s an ATS trend player’s dream scenario, a no-brainer with “send it in on Cincinnati!” written all over it. However, off a hard-fought win vs division-rival Cleveland, the first CIN win vs CLE in the last six tries, they're asked to travel into non-conference territory against a first-place opponent which, a)needs the game, b) when last seen, was getting its butt kicked in San Francisco. Underestimating the possible combined effect of an embarrassing road loss on a decent home team prompting a huge follow-up, as a divisional win against a rival that’s had its number tends to precede a regression, lol. The Bengals may beat the Bucs, who seem like they are no longer tough enough, can’t be led by Tom Brady anymore, and won’t respond to whatever it is to which Bowles may resort. When it looks too easy...it usually isn't. Backing the BUCS.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
My season basically has been defined by 3 excellent weeks and 3 trash weeks that basically evened out and I managed to win more in the middling weeks. Also of note, if I had been flat betting, I would be down over 11 units, so at least this year, the weighted action has worked out well for me.
- 1.54/4 RAMS +260
- 4/3.81 PACKERS u39½ -105
RAMS ONLY 1-4 ATS AS 7-14 POINT DOG LAST 7 YEARS
RAMS 18-16-3 52.9% ATS @NIGHT LAST 7 YEARS (1-2-1 THIS SEASON)
RAMS @NIGHT HAVE CASHED UNDERS 72.2% (26-10-1) LAST 7 YEARS INCLUDING LAST 8 STRAIGHT
RAMS 15-5 75% ATS IN DECEMBER LAST 5 YEARS...WON 6 STRAIGHT AND 14 OF L17 ATS
GB 16-17 ATS AS 7-14 POINT FAV LAST 7 YEARS (2-5 LAST 7)
GB 22-19 53.7% ATS @NIGHT LAST 7 YEARS (15-5 LAST 20)
GB 13-4 76.5% ATS @HOME VS NFC LAST 3 YEARS (CASHED 8 OF LAST 9)
GB 10-4-1 71.4% ATS VS NFC WEST LAST 10 YEARS(4-1 LAST 5)
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