WEEK 9

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
one unit

Indy -6 W
UCF -1 L


smaller

Minny -2 W
TTech +7 W
Charlotte +18' W
Utah -3 L
Rice +7' W
Ark St -7 L
BGreen +3/ML W
BColl +8'/7' W

small

Ga Tech +8' L
Duke +12' W
Cinn +7 L
Ball St +12' W
Akron +3/ML W
Penn St -3 3Q W
SJSU +15' live L


tiny

Sam H -1 3Q W
SH/FIU 2Q over 10 (larger) L
LT 2Q -3 W
Kenn St +7 1Q W
Jax St -6/ 3Q W
Pitt -2 2Q. W
UNLV ML 3Q (BO -105) W
Boise -0.5 4Q (BM -112) W
Boise/UNLV 2Q OVER 17' (-113 BM) L
Kan State 2Q -3 W


leans
*updated FRI

waiting
Vandy at 21?
UTSA <8
Miss St >7

leans only

Tulane
SDSU
SJSU
Kansas
Temple
ULM
 
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Had to double take at the Texas Tech line. Yes- they got smoked by Baylor lw. Yes they are better at home vs road- but seriously, getting 6 from a below average TCU team off a big win at Utah? Take my $$
 
Don’t love the early kick, but without Rourke, IU isn’t close to the same team. Washington has had its issues, but IU getting way too much love here at almost a TD
 
satnightfever05 said:
Don’t love the early kick, but without Rourke, IU isn’t close to the same team. Washington has had its issues, but IU getting way too much love here at almost a TD
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Indiana will be just fine and will still put up plenty of points. Running game is still solid and if Washington decides to load the box, good luck covering IU's receivers one on one. From what I understand, the replacement QB has a stronger arm and is more athletic. Not to mention played the whole 2nd half vs Nebraska and helped put 28 points on the scoreboard. I think Indiana wins by double digits like they have been doing all season.
 
FadeTheHype said:
Indiana will be just fine and will still put up plenty of points. Running game is still solid and if Washington decides to load the box, good luck covering IU's receivers one on one. From what I understand, the replacement QB has a stronger arm and is more athletic. Not to mention played the whole 2nd half vs Nebraska and helped put 28 points on the scoreboard. I think Indiana wins by double digits like they have been doing all season.
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Not sold on Jackson at all. He’s gonna have to show me he can handle this type of game

IU hasn’t played a team with a pulse yet really.
 
satnightfever05 said:
IU hasn’t played a team with a pulse yet really.
Click to expand...

Nebraksa isn't terrible. 4th quarter game v. Illinois. Completely dismantled Colorado and we see what that team is now. Not great but certainly has a pulse.

Indiana just destroyed NU on both sides of the ball. It wasn't a fluke. Sometimes you just give credit where credit is due.

Can IU bounce back after that win with a backup? We'll see how good a coach Cignetti is.
 
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added


Indy -6 (BM)
Duke +13 (BM)
TTech +7 (BM)
Charlotte +18' (BO)
Utah -3 (BO)


Indy/UW - don't underestimate the loss of the nation's highest rated passer - backup might play great, might stink. BUT, Indy is literally a team of very few weaknesses (somehow) .... couldn't believe how easily they handled Nebraska - a solid, well coached, hungry team we know was ready to play. Extending the margin by what 28 points AFTER Rourke went out? GAMEDAY crowd as well. I'm rolling again with my - 'play ON the team with the injured player' angle - (missed last week with GT).

Check out these numbers:

SP+ #12 O / #22 D / #12 ST
TO margin #13 (+7)
Net field position #9 (#29 O/ # 10D)
HAVOC #5 O /17 D
yards/pt margin #8
pts/play margin #4
explosive plays O #7 / D #9
RZ O #5 / D #40
available yards O #1 / D #14
success rate O #3 / D #12 ............

Offense could use a few more explosive runs (#68) - but man that's about it. They can move the chains, and make explosive plays (pass #3) .... YET prevent teams from doing BOTH - they don't bring a ton of pressure, but still rank #46 at sack rate (7% of dropbacks), and get penetration as well (#24).

Caveat is of course - "they ain't played nobody" - but they just did and kicked the shit out of 'em.
>> Note SOS (FEI) is ugly - O has faced the #126 toughest schedule of DEFENSES / defense has faced the #113 toughest run of OFFENSES

Huskies have serious issues with ST (#133!) - finishing drives (red zone O #110 / TD) - leveraging the field (#114)
* also #120 in Yards/pt margin = offense AND defense is not efficient at all



DUKE - SMU off long road trip / Pitt on deck - TE Maryland is now OFY, a huge loss - line is maybe 2-3 points too high

TT - weak on the road, but great off a loss - Frogs fat/happy off win at Utah - line should be 3/4 tops

CLT- approach with extreme caution ha - might win or get killed - best QB Purdie is probably available (won't start) - Memphis a shaky AAC home favorite and off facing 97 plays / 653 yards vs NTX - crazy Niners actually outgained Navy 363-288 (5 TO), and are tough in this role.

UTAH - small (value) play only - earlier line woulda been 14-17 or so - I just think Cougs stink and match up poorly here - Ute D should take charge ....
* one thing I don't like is that Utes have a bye on deck, and may choose to begin their 'fresh start' AFTER the bye, the week before BYU - note they have played poorly (before) a bye recently (0-4)
 
satnightfever05 said:
Don’t love the early kick, but without Rourke, IU isn’t close to the same team. Washington has had its issues, but IU getting way too much love here at almost a TD
Click to expand...

like Tech here for sure - bought up to 7
* my initial thought was Washington too (of course) - but a deep dive into Indy changed my mind - especially with GameDay crowd - think they rally around the back-up here - live play might be better, but I thought they would start slow vs Nebraska too ......
 
satnightfever05 said:
Not sold on Jackson at all. He’s gonna have to show me he can handle this type of game

IU hasn’t played a team with a pulse yet really.
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Wow. Well, maybe you haven't watched much of IU this year, but they are absolutely legit. Washington has lost to Rutgers, Wash St and Iowa by a lot. If Iowa puts up 40 on them, what do you think Indiana will do?
 
Frank Costanza said:
Nebraksa isn't terrible. 4th quarter game v. Illinois. Completely dismantled Colorado and we see what that team is now. Not great but certainly has a pulse.

Indiana just destroyed NU on both sides of the ball. It wasn't a fluke. Sometimes you just give credit where credit is due.

Can IU bounce back after that win with a backup? We'll see how good a coach Cignetti is.
Click to expand...
Correct. Indiana dominated line of scrimmage. The pundits thought Nebraska's D would show up and keep it a close game. Um, not quite. IU is legit a top 20 team, maybe better.
 
FadeTheHype said:
Correct. Indiana dominated line of scrimmage. The pundits thought Nebraska's D would show up and keep it a close game. Um, not quite. IU is legit a top 20 team, maybe better.
Click to expand...

Indy is (about) the 15-17th best team in the nation (SP+ #12). #16 for me.

AP style 'rankings' only useful for play-off selection, and possible motivation when handicapping .....useless when discussing a team's strength......
 
bookieassassin said:
Indy is (about) the 15-17th best team in the nation (SP+ #12). #16 for me.

AP style 'rankings' only useful for play-off selection, and possible motivation when handicapping .....useless when discussing a team's strength......
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That's fine and all. But for future reference, don't call IU Indy as that is not accurate at all. Indy is supposed to mean Indianapolis, not Indiana. Indianapolis doesn't give two shits about college sports in general. I know the public thinks otherwise but just giving out the reality.
 
FadeTheHype said:
That's fine and all. But for future reference, don't call IU Indy as that is not accurate at all. Indy is supposed to mean Indianapolis, not Indiana. Indianapolis doesn't give two shits about college sports in general. I know the public thinks otherwise but just giving out the reality.
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LMFAO!😂 You got schooled bookieassassin!
Get them chips again this week my friend! 🍻 Get on my Buffalos!😜
 
FadeTheHype said:
Wow. Well, maybe you haven't watched much of IU this year, but they are absolutely legit. Washington has lost to Rutgers, Wash St and Iowa by a lot. If Iowa puts up 40 on them, what do you think Indiana will do?
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And 99.9% of bettors are thinking the same right- yet the line isn’t touching 7.

Gotta ask yourself why not.
 
satnightfever05 said:
And 99.9% of bettors are thinking the same right- yet the line isn’t touching 7.

Gotta ask yourself why not.
Click to expand...
I've been keeping track of things this season. The public has been killing it until last week. But even then, they had Indiana. Sometimes the books are just not willing to give the historically bad programs the benefit of the doubt. Indiana has all the advantages even though Washington comes in off a bye. The eye test and results thus far can't be dismissed. Would Washington beat Nebraska worse than 28-0 in 2 quarters? Not a chance. I say that since Jackson played only 2nd half last week.
 
FadeTheHype said:
That's fine and all. But for future reference, don't call IU Indy as that is not accurate at all. Indy is supposed to mean Indianapolis, not Indiana. Indianapolis doesn't give two shits about college sports in general. I know the public thinks otherwise but just giving out the reality.
Click to expand...
LIGHTEN UP FRANCIS
 
bookieassassin said:
one unit

Indy -6


smaller

Minny -2
TTech +7
Charlotte +18'
Utah -3


small

BColl +8'
Ga Tech +8'
Duke +12'


tiny

Sam H -1 3Q W
SH/FIU 2Q over 10 (larger) L
LT 2Q -3 W
Kenn St +7 1Q W
Jax St -6/ 3Q W



leans
*updated Tues

BGreen at 3/ML
Ball St at 13/14
Rice at 7/7'
Ark St at 7/6'
ULM at 7'/8
Utah at 2'/3
Tulane at 7/6'
Vandy at 21 (late maybe)
UTSA at 7
Cinn at 6/6'


?? - Jax St ... GASO ... Virg ... Akron ? ... Temple? ... A&M ?? ... Miss St ..... UNLV .... SDSU ?
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Tulane partner…. Darian Mensah, close friends with his family…. Legitimately will be somebody to watch moving forward next year or two. I can see him transferring to a power Team. Coaching down there has done him wonders…. Waves are sharp.
 
Talk to me about our Pokes +6.5 at Baylor.. Did Baylor all of a sudden get good because they blew out Tech last week? Is OSU somehow not able to compete here given they were 20 seconds away from upsetting BYU on the road? Bears only Ws this year are Tarleton State, Air Force and Texas Tech.

Gundy as a conference dog usually $$
 
satnightfever05 said:
Talk to me about our Pokes +6.5 at Baylor.. Did Baylor all of a sudden get good because they blew out Tech last week? Is OSU somehow not able to compete here given they were 20 seconds away from upsetting BYU on the road? Bears only Ws this year are Tarleton State, Air Force and Texas Tech.

Gundy as a conference dog usually $$
Click to expand...

NO !

Small play or live/2H maybe - you should know early if OSU has come to play.

Anytime a team has little to no interest in tackling (effort lacking mainly) it suggests there are problems. Baylor O is explosive (run and pass) - OSU gives up explosive plays like crazy. OSU D ranks #125 in yards/play (6.6 yikes) - #130 in rush D (5.7-238 HOLY CRAP). ST aren't terrible, but everything else is (Bear's ST much better). Things like leveraging the field - BU begins drives at their own 33 / OSU their 25 - BU's opponents 28 / OSU the 30. Bears #16 net / OSU #112.

I can't figure out what happened vs TTech (Tech was playing well) so tough to get a read on Baylor for me - best to stay away probably. Gundy is tough in this type of spot, but hard to bounce back off that effort vs BYU. Before week 8, line would have been P/BU -1
 
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bumped up BColl at 7'


added

Rice +7' (BO)
Ark St -7 (BM)
BGreen +3/ML (BO)
Cinn +7 (BM)
Ball St +12' (BO)
Akron +3/ML (H)


will add Vandy at 21 - maybe by kick-off? ....... UTSA if it drops .......Miss St if it goes up probably


BG - Toledo is tough at home, but BG is the better team - should stay close or win SU
Akron - Zips probably win this one. EMU my team but not as a road favorite (better lately tho)
RICE - UConn fading - fiesty nightbirds playing much better - should stay close or win SU
Ark St - should wake up here - number should be closer to 10
Cinn - really an underrated team - bad spot for Buffs - line should closer to 3.... actually gonna wait here for a 7' - line should go up late
Ball St - horrible D, but they usually compete in this spot - NIU off BG > Toledo - weak usually in this role



back later boys - BOL this week
 
tiny

UNLV ML 3Q (BO -105)
Boise -0.5 4Q (BM -112)
Boise/UNLV 2Q OVER 17' (-113 BM)

Boise's worst Q is 3rd by far - they wake up 4Q - D really tightens up - O averages 8.0/rush - D allows 1.9
>> Boise is great 2Q as well - UNLV's rush D falls apart (6.0/rush) ...... Boise #1 scoring 2Q / UNLV #2
 
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bookieassassin said:
one unit

Indy -6
UCF -1


smaller

Minny -2
TTech +7
Charlotte +18'
Utah -3
Rice +7'
Ark St -7
BGreen +3/ML
BColl +8'/7' W

small

Ga Tech +8'
Duke +12'
Cinn +7
Ball St +12'
Akron +3/ML


tiny

Sam H -1 3Q W
SH/FIU 2Q over 10 (larger) L
LT 2Q -3 W
Kenn St +7 1Q W
Jax St -6/ 3Q W
Pitt -2 2Q. W
UNLV ML 3Q (BO -105) W
Boise -0.5 4Q (BM -112) W
Boise/UNLV 2Q OVER 17' (-113 BM) L


leans
*updated FRI

waiting
Vandy at 21?
UTSA <8
Miss St >7

leans only

Tulane
SDSU
SJSU
Kansas
Temple
ULM
Click to expand...
That’s a banger card my man…. I’m 0-3 fading BYU (they’re that thorn in the side team for me). Lets get that money back…UCF.
Cincy (hope no one busts my balls for the school name) is absolutely the type of team, and situation that could pull the upset. The 7points is a gift imo. We’ve discussed before how Prime tends to fade in these melancholy matchups….and disciplined squads (k state) are exactly the type of matchup that causes the Buffs problems. I’m with you brother and will hit the ML. Let’s hope that CU speed under the lights doesn’t blind Bearcats early… have a day my brotha!
 
FadeTheHype said:
Wasn't trying to be obnoxious, just setting the record straight. Indy is only supposed to be for pro teams like Colts or Pacers. Indy has no connection to IU so just wanted to make it clear for everyone.
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I’ll be at Indy 500 again. lol Tremendous!
So is Iowa UI, and Illinois IU? I am on the Hoosiers.
 
Helluva early slate BA….. del fuego

Indiana felt right from the start…ditto Charlotte. Banging em!!
Fixing to grab some UCF live action

The King has made a statement! Rip van winkle for da boys
 
Wolfeman said:
Helluva early slate BA….. del fuego

Indiana felt right from the start…ditto Charlotte. Banging em!!
Fixing to grab some UCF live action

The King has made a statement! Rip van winkle for da boys
Click to expand...

Looks like I shoulda done a deep dive on UCF/BYU ha - thought UCF D matched up better than this .......

How is Kalani F'in Sitake, with a much weaker roster - in a bad spot - owning Gus like this?
>. not to overreact - I'm calling for Gus to not only retire but to ......honor the samurai code of honor at midfield post game....................................................;)
 
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bookieassassin said:
Looks like I shoulda done a deep dive on UCF/BYU ha - thought UCF D matched up better than this .......

How is Kalani F'in Sitake, with a much weaker roster - in a bad spot - owning Gus like this?
>. not to overreact - I'm calling for Gus to not only retire but to ......honor the samurai code of honor at midfield post game....................................................;)
Click to expand...
I keep trying to fade fraud BYU and they keep winning and covering lol
 
FadeTheHype said:
That's fine and all. But for future reference, don't call IU Indy as that is not accurate at all. Indy is supposed to mean Indianapolis, not Indiana. Indianapolis doesn't give two shits about college sports in general. I know the public thinks otherwise but just giving out the reality.
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Is this actually a serious post??

I'm guessing this was tongue in cheek and a joke. Please tell me it was a joke and you didn't instruct a fellow member how to speak in this laughably ridiculous fashion.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Is this actually a serious post??

I'm guessing this was tongue in cheek and a joke. Please tell me it was a joke and you didn't instruct a fellow member how to speak in this laughably ridiculous fashion.
Click to expand...
Yes, dead serious. Indy has no connection to Indiana Hoosiers. Indy is short for Indianapolis which is a city that promotes pro sports. Only the lazy call the Hoosiers Indy, because they aren't well informed.
 
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