Week 9 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
It was just a terrible week for me last week, with the writeups going 4-8, which brings the year-long total to 60-44.(.5769) Those negative weeks have a significant effect on winning percentages. Here I was at 60% two weeks ago, and now it's gonna take a pretty solid run to get back up there. Not much I can say about last week. There were a couple unfortunate happenings, but for the most part, what I thought was going to happen, did not happen. Pretty simple. I'm still on the road, and with the weather looking like it does today, I'm just hoping I get back home on time late this afternoon.

Another week of tight lines. I guess this is what happens every year around weeks 7-8-9, but it seems a little more extreme this year.

@Baylor -2.5 v Texas WIN
@Michigan State +4 v Michigan WIN
@@Wisconsin -3 v Iowa WIN
Pitt -9 v Miami LOSS
Minnesota -7.5 @Northwestern WIN
Florida State +9.5 @Clemson LOSS (Should have bought to 10, LOL)
Purdue +7.5 v @Nebraska WIN
Texas Tech +19.5 @Oklahoma LOSS (Let's sign up Sonny Cumbie NOW)
@South Alabama -8.5 v Arkansas State WIN
UTEP +11.5 @FAU WIN
SMU pk @Houston LOSS
@Colorado State +2.5 v Boise State LOSS
UCLA +7 @Utah LOSS
Washington +3 @Stanford WIN

8-6

1. @Baylor -2.5 v Texas
: Baylor comes into this game at 6-1, one of the bigger surprises in the country. In their past 2 games, they've righted the ship a bit after a two game stretch against Iowa State(which they won anyway) and Oklahoma State in which they were pretty severely outgained. At the time those two teams were by far the best teams they had played, so a case could be made that the might start a losing streak once they got into the meat of their schedule. Since then, they pretty much dominated West Virginia and BYU, which is a credit to what is starting to look like one of the best coaching staffs in the country. Both the Baylor offense and their defense have been largely effective all year and very complementary of each other. Neither unit ranks worse than about 40th nationally in any meaningful category. On the flip side, Texas has been all offense, as their defense has been porous all year, ranking 101st in yards per play and 113th in rushing yards per carry against. Also, Baylor shapes up to be one of the better defenses they've faced The Bears D is on par with Arkansas and Oklahoma State, who are the two above average defenses the Horns have faced, and who just happen to be the two that held the Horns to 256 and 317 yards respectively. When Texas has looked good on offense, it's been against defenses that are among the worst in the country in overall yards per play, i.e. Rice (122nd), TCU (123rd), Oklahoma(95th) and LaLa(77th against a weak slate of offenses). On the flip side, Baylor's offenses should have their way with the Horns, especially on the ground where their two top running backs Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner average 7.5 and 6.4 yards per carry respectively. Baylor, like everyone else in the Big 12, always gets up for Texas, and even though they have a much better record than the Horns, they'll still open some eyes if they take care of business. I like the Bears at home here.
 
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2. Michigan State +4 v Michigan: When I stack these two teams up unit by unit, it's pretty much a stalemate. Both teams have been good all year, and appear to be well coached(except when MSU runs the extreme shotgun handoff to Walker 9 yards deep in the backfield on 4th and inches). MSU was extremely lucky to cover against Indiana in their last game, a game in which the Hoosiers outgained them somehow. I prefer to bet on MSU when they are on the road, but now that they are a 4 point dog, it's a side that has too much value, especially considering the voodoo magic the Spartans have had on Harbaugh and the Wolverines. Michigan relies heavily on the run and in the short passing game, and MSU has a stout front 7 that will make it hard to have consistent success in the run game. On the flip side, the Spartan offense is much more explosive than Michigan's, as the Spartans have the ability to score from anywhere with those two receivers(Nailor and Reed) who both average in the neighborhood of 20 yards per reception. Even against Northwestern's offense(and this may have been by design) Michigan had to grind out drives because they wouldn't go downfield with McNamara. Maybe they'll have something up their sleeves this week with JJ McCarthy under center, but if they continue to try to nickel and dime their way downfield, I'd hate to have a Michigan -4 ticket in a nip and tuck game. We also have to be ready for the reality that the other shoe is eventually going to drop for Harbaugh, and what better opponent for it than the Spartans, especially when Mel Tucker has already beaten him as a 24 point dog? Too many points here in what looks like a tossup game.
 
Thank you for posting. Your work makes CTG better.

I hope you make it home today. Do not know your age, but in the 90s and early 2000s I had to travel a heck of a lot for my work. I well remember those Fridays when you were hoping just to make it home. Brutal. Best of luck
 
3. @Wisconsin -3(-113) v Iowa: These two teams are very similar, with the obvious observation being that both teams are elite defensively and considerably below average (to be polite) offensively. Strangely enough, despite spending most of the season proving that they aren't worthy of being made a significant favorite, here's Wisconsin again, with another head scratching line in which they are favored by an inflated amount relative to their performance. This week it's as an unranked 4-3 squad against a top 10 team just off it's first loss of the season. I've been on both sides of this conundrum, but this week, I must say that I kind of understand where the oddsmakers are coming from. Iowa was exposed 2 weeks ago in their loss against Purdue. Spencer Petras cannot make anywhere near the plays necessary to carry their offense on his own. Not only that, he'll throw the ball to the other team when pressured and behind. Iowa has been able to endure having him calling the shots back there because they have had a solid running game in the past, but at this point, anyone saying Iowa has anything close to a good running game hasn't watched them this year. So far, they've played 4 solid run defenses, and here's what they've averaged per carry against them: Iowa State (1.7); Colorado State (1.7); Penn State (2.4) and Purdue (2.5). Now they have to travel to Wisconsin to face a Badger defense that's better than all of those teams against the run, and is starting to get back into the groove in forcing turnovers. That's good because they certainly can't count on their own quarterback to do them any favors. But luckily for them, they are a much better matchup with their own running game against the Iowa run defense, and this has been especially true in the 3-4 games now that Braelon Allen has been getting more carries. Allen has averaged more than 7 yards per carry, and other than a fumble, completely dominated a very good Purdue run defense last week. He looks very much like some of the stud RBs the Badgers have historically trotted out there, and I think he and Chez Mellusi will have some success in this one. Also, the Badgers are content to stick with the run, which is a luxury I don't think Iowa will have. There's a good chance the "bubble burst" scenario will play out for Iowa, and Wisconsin is now on a 3 game win streak, which indicates these two teams might be going in different directions. Lastly, Iowa is usually a very good ATS bet, but they are not good as a road dog, having gone 3-6 in that role since 2017.
 
4. @Pitt -9 v Miami(FL): When I first started looking at this game, it seemed like a good letdown spot for Pitt, with them coming off the big win over Clemson. But the more I look at this one, I'm attracted to the other side. When you match these teams up against each other unit by unit, Miami doesn't have anything resembling even a semblance of an advantage in any area on either side of the ball, and Pitt I'm sure will have a hard time overlooking any bunch of players that show up in the orange and green of Miami. Also, Manny Diaz has the rare opportunity to build on a nice win, so we can be pretty confident he will piss away that bit of good fortune as soon as possible. Miami hasn't held any power 5 opponent under 30 this year, and it's extremely unlikely that anything will change with this Pitt squad that has been one of the better offense in the country. Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke will probably be running for his life as I expect the Pitt pass rushers to be all over that weak Miami line, so I can't see Miami keeping pace. Now that the line is under 10, I like the Panthers here.
 
Brass BOL on the week, I like all of these plays but the Wisc game is a cunundrum for me...I prefer over in Baylor game, but do not dispute the side play.
 
pitt Mo would be to lose to duke next week, not here. lol.. i dont think they will do that again tho!! actually think uva will be the next game that be dangerous for pitt.. i agree they gonna be all over the younger Van Dyke, he has improved every week but he hasnt seen pressure like he will here.. also think pitt gonna have a big day running the ball, they always try to stay balanced and think in doing so they gonna figure out they can cash canes soft as run d., i expect this ends up being a physical performance by pitt where they run for bout 200 and control the game. little lower scoring that ppl might think, pitt could score whatever but think they making a effort to avoid the shootouts that give them more risk to lose games,. just a hunch tho,, pitt is def the only side i would play.
 
pitt Mo would be to lose to duke next week, not here. lol.. i dont think they will do that again tho!! actually think uva will be the next game that be dangerous for pitt.. i agree they gonna be all over the younger Van Dyke, he has improved every week but he hasnt seen pressure like he will here.. also think pitt gonna have a big day running the ball, they always try to stay balanced and think in doing so they gonna figure out they can cash canes soft as run d., i expect this ends up being a physical performance by pitt where they run for bout 200 and control the game. little lower scoring that ppl might think, pitt could score whatever but think they making a effort to avoid the shootouts that give them more risk to lose games,. just a hunch tho,, pitt is def the only side i would play.
Agree with your thoughts here Bank.
 
5. Minnesota -7.5 @ Northwestern: This looks like a bad matchup for the Cats here. Northwestern is bad overall defensively, but they are especially bad against the run (119th), and if there's one thing PJ Fleck will commit to, it's to run it right up he gut and to do it repeatedly. Northwestern can handle short passing games defensively, but I don't think Minnesota will be interested in messing around. Rather, they'll run it incessantly and then complement that strategy with a few downfield passes. I see the Cats having a difficult time getting off the field on defense, and Minnesota's defense also has a significant edge over the Wildcat offense. The Gophers are much better defending the run(13th) than the pass, and passing the ball is definitely not Northwestern's preference. 7.5 is a bit steep, but I can definitely see this one ending up as a 31-13. type game. Minnesota has only been on the road twice this year, but they were very impressive in both cases, shutting out Colorado and winning outright as a dog at Purdue.
 
6. Florida State +9.5 @Clemson: This might end up being the squarest of all plays, but we might as well make Clemson actually cover a spread before we give them enough benefit of the doubt to take a pass on backing a team that has a definitive edge over them on paper, right? Clemson is 0-7 ATS, and that's no fluke when you look at their statistics on paper. 113th in yards per play on offense, 127th in rushing offense, 102nd in 3rd down conversions. On the flip side, I was surprised to notice that FSU is ranked 4th in the country in rushing yards per attempt and is 24th in overall yards per play. That's pretty good, and they also have been completely competent on defense. Perhaps the talent will show up in this game for Clemson, but I haven't seen it yet, and their offense certainly hasn't indicated they can put enough points to run away with any game, especially when FSU can break a long one at any time.
 
My concern w FSU is I don’t know if they will be able to run on a pretty solid clemson d, and I dunno what that offense looks like if they can’t run? I guess it be another clemson rock fight where neither team can score 20! In that case getting 9.5 is quite generous!
 
7. Purdue +7.5 @Nebraska: Nebraska has never been a bargain at any time this year when it comes to the point spread, and I kind of understand why, because when you look at their statistics on paper, they look like an extremely consistent and efficient team on offense and defense. Since spreads have some basis in the stats, they look good enough for the Huskers to be favored at Minnesota, or less than a field goal underdog at home to Michigan. But we all know that under Scott Frost, Nebraska's results almost always fall short of what SHOULD happen based on what the box score shows. This is the reason that they are favored by more than a TD against a pretty good team like Purdue. Purdue's offense doesn't really jump off he page at you on paper, but there they are putting up 400+ yards on Iowa, and frankly, I only show a negligible advantage for Nebraska on paper in this one Purdue is also in it's desired role as a road dog, a role in which they've gone 7-2 ATS in under Brohm since 2017, and 17-5 in if you go back to 2015. In this case, I can back the team that finds ways to succeed in this role against a team that unquestionably finds ways to lose, and I have a TD+ buffer to boot. I'm a buyer in that case.
 
8. Texas Tech +19.5 @Oklahoma: I'm back to the well with Texas Tech here, and trust me, I realize the risk of having to watch that Texas Tech defense against an explosive offense like Oklahoma, but when you consider that Oklahoma's last 3 games were all against WORSE defenses than Texas Tech from a yards per play standpoint,(Kansas, TCU, Texas) maybe the Red Raiders will look like an efficient outfit in comparison? Obviously, the reason for this play isn't the Texas Tech defense, If they can hold Oklahoma in the 40's I'll be happy because I think Oklahoma is going to have just as much trouble stopping the Red Raiders as vice versa. To wit: Oklahoma is ranked 104th in yards per play on defense, Texas Tech is 12th in yards per play on offense. In the passing game, Oklahoma is ranked 114th in yards per pass attempt, while Texas Tech is 11th. The Tech offense has been good regardless of who is under center, Tyler Shough or the weak armed Henry Colombi. Colombi throws rainbows all over the field, but they are on the money and the receivers are open. Tech is coming into this game during a week in which HC Matt Wells was fired, which I found to be highly surprising, as I always had a positive impression of Wells. This is especially true since Tech is currently 5-3 and this is only Well's 3rd year at the helm. It makes you think there might have been more to the story, and the guy they gave the interim tag to, Sonny Cumbie, is an alum who's the architect of the unit that's been the source of all the teams success, and reports are that he is a strong candidate to be the permanent guy. I kind of like that from a motivational standpoint for the Raiders here. Ultimately the numbers suggest that Oklahoma should have just as much trouble stopping Tech as Tech will them, and we have what looks to be an improved outlook for the Raiders. Throw in the fact that I get almost 3 scores and that makes this one a play for me.
 
9. @South Alabama -8.5 v Arkansas State: I rarely get involved with Sun Belt games because nutty things like Louisiana Monroe winning 3 times as a 25+ point dog happen regularly, but this one looks pretty safe to me. Arky State is really bad. They have what is likely the worst defense in FBS (130th in YPP, 130th by a mile in rush defense and 129th in yards pass attempt against). And yes, there are only 130 teams in FBS. When they've ventured on the road, they've been cannon fodder in all their games except at Tulsa, who would play your kid's 8th grade team to a standstill if they were favored against them at home. At home, they can kind of compete, and this line is probably as low as it is because the Red Wolves caught LaLa on a bad night in Jonesboro last week and fell by only a point as a major dog, although if you looked at LaLa's ATS record as a favorite, you'd understand how that result wasn't totally surprising. South Alabama, while not a great team themselves, and owners of a terrible run offense that probably will run on Arky State anyway, has a very solid passing attack (27th) and a pretty competitive defense(33rd in yards per play). Also they have been very good in their 3 home games, going 3-0 and covering all three by almost 20 points. They've been short favorites against Southern Miss and Georgia Southern at home and won those two 31-7 and 41-14 respectively. I'd expect that we see another one in that neighborhood here. It's a good matchup for the Jaguars. There are very few teams in the country that would be this short of a favorite against Arky State, and I would suggest that South Alabama should not be one of them
 
Appreciate your insight and taking the time to post these. Good luck today Brass...

:cheers3:
 
10. UTEP +11.5 @FAU: I've written up UTEP a couple times this year and they've come through for me, but I held off on them a couple other times and I ended up kicking myself. The same reasons I hesitated in previous weeks are here this week as well, but I think there's enough of a sample size now to give the Miners credit where credit is due and take advantage of the value that still exits with them. I laid off writing them up against Louisiana Tech a couple weeks ago because Tech had played a much tougher schedule and UTEP had some terrible trends, based mostly in their pathetic results of previous years. The fundamental handicap was screaming UTEP, but I chickened out. Well, the fundamental handicap is again screaming UTEP, and although I tend to get burned regularly by FAU, the value looks too good to pass up again. Although It's been against weak competition, UTEP's defense is ranked 8th in yards per play against, 7th against the run and 19th against the pass, They are 12th on 3rd down and 26th in sacks, There really isn't a facet of their defense that has been anything other than solid. Offensively, they've been good as well, especially in the passing game, where QB Gavin Hardison is hitting for almost 10 yards per attempt. FAU is a worse matchup than some of the previous opponents have been for UTEP, as the Owls are solid in some of the same areas, but UTEP still looks like the better team overall on paper, and we are getting 11.5 points to boot. I think UTEP is for real so I'll gobble up those points.
 
11. SMU pk @Houston: These two teams match up extremely closely as you would probably expect, and it's rare that we get to just pick a winner in a game, but the more I look at this game, the more I think SMU is pretty significantly more likely to win this one. Houston has some good defensive results, but they've played a bunch of weak offenses, especially pass offenses and yet they are ranked only 67th against the pass. I greatly prefer SMU QB Tyler Mordecai to Clayton Tune at Houston, and I think the Cougars are going to see a major class upgrade in that SMU pass offense compared to the Rices and the Navys that they've seen recently. Also, I'm just not a believer in Dana Holgerson. I think Houston's recent success has been due mostly to their competition, and I just can't envision them getting to 7-1 and beating a solid SMU team that has everything riding on this game.
 
12. @Colorado State +2.5 v Boise State: This line is more about what Boise has done in the past than what they've done this year. I lost on Colorado State last week, but that game was a joke, as Colorado State completely dominated that game from beginning to end, and some terrible personal foul calls that went against them constantly kept Utah State drives alive. I'm going back to the well with the Rams this week. Colorado State's defense is legitimately good, and Boise cannot run the ball. They haven't run it all year, and they certainly won't run it this week, as they are ranked 124th in yards per carry and CSU sits at 3rd in the country against the run. The advantage is reduced for CSU in the passing game, but they still have a major edge in that area. IN addition, this Boise defense can't seem to get off the field, ranking 113th on 3rd down. They struggle both against the pass and against the run (89th in both) and CSU has shown great improvement in their offense after a terrible start. RB David Bailey has been very solid when healthy, and QB Todd Centaio has improved greatly since he started locking on on NFL prospect TE Trey McBride. In my opinion, I have the better team at home getting points. I know Boise has been the class of the Mountain West for more than a decade, but this year's version is not close to that, and the value lies with CSU here as a result.
 
6. Florida State +9.5 @Clemson: This might end up being the squarest of all plays, but we might as well make Clemson actually cover a spread before we give them enough benefit of the doubt to take a pass on backing a team that has a definitive edge over them on paper, right? Clemson is 0-7 ATS, and that's no fluke when you look at their statistics on paper. 113th in yards per play on offense, 127th in rushing offense, 102nd in 3rd down conversions. On the flip side, I was surprised to notice that FSU is ranked 4th in the country in rushing yards per attempt and is 24th in overall yards per play. That's pretty good, and they also have been completely competent on defense. Perhaps the talent will show up in this game for Clemson, but I haven't seen it yet, and their offense certainly hasn't indicated they can put enough points to run away with any game, especially when FSU can break a long one at any time.
The FSU offense matches up poorly against the Clemson D, but I still think the line is too high. I can't bet against my team, so I'm going under once again.

Wild card: You may see a different Clemson QB for some or all of the game.
 
Looks like a great card this week. I think you and I are the only ones on Wisconsin around here. Best of luck.
 
Always enjoy your thread each week. We are on the same side in a few and not against each other on any so hope that bodes well and you have a highly profitable day today!
 
The FSU offense matches up poorly against the Clemson D, but I still think the line is too high. I can't bet against my team, so I'm going under once again.

Wild card: You may see a different Clemson QB for some or all of the game.
What do you think of the backup? I'm not gonna try to spell his name right. Do you think it makes a difference for them at this point? I'm hoping FSU can break a couple long ones. Despite their overall weakness on offense they've found a way to do that pretty consistently.
 
What do you think of the backup? I'm not gonna try to spell his name right. Do you think it makes a difference for them at this point? I'm hoping FSU can break a couple long ones. Despite their overall weakness on offense they've found a way to do that pretty consistently.
What, be weak (sarcasm)? GL today, Brass…
 
What do you think of the backup? I'm not gonna try to spell his name right. Do you think it makes a difference for them at this point? I'm hoping FSU can break a couple long ones. Despite their overall weakness on offense they've found a way to do that pretty consistently.
I haven't seen much of the backup, but he supposedly looked a lot better in the spring game this year (until he got hurt) than he did the year before. He's quicker and more elusive as a runner.
 
13. UCLA +7 (-117) @ Utah: Now that I have a chance to buy this to 7 at a reasonable number, I feel like we have some great value here. I definitely prefer to back Utah rather than fade them, but there is a lot of value on UCLA here, with or without DTR, and it's up in the air whether or not he starts this game. UCLA has the edge in the running game on both sides of the ball and has spent a good chunk of the season bullying opponents on the lines. That historically has been Utah's MO, but they've been gashed on the lines a couple times this year. UCLA is balanced on offense and converts on 3rd down and they are likely to force Utah to rely on Cam Rising in the passing game. UCLA has also been in their element when they've been on the road, having handily won all 3 of their road contests. Getting 7 here gives me a nice cushion even if UCLA doesn't have it tonight.
 
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14. Washington +3 @Stanford: Although Washington is only 3-4, I think they might be the better team here, and the matchup definitely favors them. Defensively, Washington's bugaboo has been stopping the run, and Stanford hasn't really been able to run on anyone. Their MO is to throw it with QB McKee, but Washington has been legitimately good against the pass, having made some previously good pass offenses look silly(Oregon State most glaringly). They are ranked 3rd in the country in yards per pass attempt against, so Stanford will likely have a much tougher time getting yards through the air than they are used to. Most telling however for me is how this line has stayed put all week, right at 2.5 and only recently bumped up to 3. I suspect most of the public is on Stanford as he short home favorite against a team that has burned a lot of bettors, so the fact that this line hasn't moved much at all is significant in my opinion. This is more of a feel play, but I like the Huskies here.
 
If San Diego State gets all the way to where I can get it at 3, I might have to grab it. All people do is rip their offense, and all they do is shut the other team down with their own defense and win.
 
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Well.....so much for Sonny Cumbie's promotion being a good thing for Texas Tech. How is it that the most brain dead people when it comes to managing the clock in football games just happen to be football coaches?
 
It was just a terrible week for me last week, with the writeups going 4-8, which brings the year-long total to 60-44.(.5769) Those negative weeks have a significant effect on winning percentages. Here I was at 60% two weeks ago, and now it's gonna take a pretty solid run to get back up there. Not much I can say about last week. There were a couple unfortunate happenings, but for the most part, what I thought was going to happen, did not happen. Pretty simple. I'm still on the road, and with the weather looking like it does today, I'm just hoping I get back home on time late this afternoon.

Another week of tight lines. I guess this is what happens every year around weeks 7-8-9, but it seems a little more extreme this year.

@Baylor -2.5 v Texas
@Michigan State +4 v Michigan
@@Wisconsin -3 v Iowa
Pitt -9 v Miami
Minnesota -7.5 @Northwestern
Florida State +9.5 @Clemson
Purdue +7.5 v @Nebraska
Texas Tech +19.5 @Oklahoma
@South Alabama -8.5 v Arkansas State
UTEP +11.5 @FAU
SMU pk @Houston
@Colorado State +2.5 v Boise State
UCLA +7 @Utah
Washington +3 @Stanford

1. @Baylor -2.5 v Texas
: Baylor comes into this game at 6-1, one of the bigger surprises in the country. In their past 2 games, they've righted the ship a bit after a two game stretch against Iowa State(which they won anyway) and Oklahoma State in which they were pretty severely outgained. At the time those two teams were by far the best teams they had played, so a case could be made that the might start a losing streak once they got into the meat of their schedule. Since then, they pretty much dominated West Virginia and BYU, which is a credit to what is starting to look like one of the best coaching staffs in the country. Both the Baylor offense and their defense have been largely effective all year and very complementary of each other. Neither unit ranks worse than about 40th nationally in any meaningful category. On the flip side, Texas has been all offense, as their defense has been porous all year, ranking 101st in yards per play and 113th in rushing yards per carry against. Also, Baylor shapes up to be one of the better defenses they've faced The Bears D is on par with Arkansas and Oklahoma State, who are the two above average defenses the Horns have faced, and who just happen to be the two that held the Horns to 256 and 317 yards respectively. When Texas has looked good on offense, it's been against defenses that are among the worst in the country in overall yards per play, i.e. Rice (122nd), TCU (123rd), Oklahoma(95th) and LaLa(77th against a weak slate of offenses). On the flip side, Baylor's offenses should have their way with the Horns, especially on the ground where their two top running backs Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner average 7.5 and 6.4 yards per carry respectively. Baylor, like everyone else in the Big 12, always gets up for Texas, and even though they have a much better record than the Horns, they'll still open some eyes if they take care of business. I like the Bears at home here.
I see more winners than losers there, mr knucks.
 
Brass...I know you've been on Oregon St. a lot this year but left them off your card this weekend, fortunately.

Just wondering how you capped that game?
 
Knux have you noticed your success in the early games and the opposite at night? Wonder what the split is based on kickoff. You start like 4-0 every Saturday. I seent it!
 
Brass...I know you've been on Oregon St. a lot this year but left them off your card this weekend, fortunately.

Just wondering how you capped that game?
Sorry for the late response Ali. I need to do a better job answering questions like this because I love talking about this stuff. You're right, I've really liked backing the Beavers this year, but I'm a big believer in trying not to force things, especially when teams are in roles that they aren't well suited for. Oregon State is a great road dog. That's the spot I like to play them in. Last week they were a road favorite. In the last 5 years, They've only been in that role a couple times and it hasn't gone well for them. Cal also wasn't a great matchup for them as they struggle mightily to get off the field on 3rd down and Chase Garbers is a pretty efficient quarterback.. I just thought there were better plays on the board. You know, like Florida State.
 
Knux have you noticed your success in the early games and the opposite at night? Wonder what the split is based on kickoff. You start like 4-0 every Saturday. I seent it!
I've noticed it Joco. It's funny, I've had years that the opposite is true, but this year I've had a lot of teams shit the bed for me at night. Maybe I'll hold off on the night games?
 
I've noticed it Joco. It's funny, I've had years that the opposite is true, but this year I've had a lot of teams shit the bed for me at night. Maybe I'll hold off on the night games?

Ive never had a certain section but for me I almost always have one bad time slot, minus those very magical damn near perfect days! Lol. If my morning good, then either 2:30 or night be bad. Last week my morning was awful and rest of day pretty good. It never fails for me, it just never the same time slot for me!! I always do RR parlays and always keep them in same time slot cause when I space I inevitably have losers, works out pretty good cause generally have a section where I knock one out the park!!
 
Oh yea I notice it personally with my own plays. I don’t take 330 pm est college games and try not to play4 pm nfl much anymore lol
 
Oh yea I notice it personally with my own plays. I don’t take 330 pm est college games and try not to play4 pm nfl much anymore lol

It’s strange to me ya’lls are always the same time. Nfl same thing for me cept it usually Sunday day or prime time. When I have a good Sunday day it inevitable I’m gonna lose Sunday and Monday night and vice versa. I wish I knew which it was gonna be before hand!! Especially with college, I’d love to be able to get rid that one bad time slot each week!! Problem w me I wouldn’t do it even if ya told me which was gonna be bad, I would believe it!! Lol
 
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