Week 9 (???) Write Ups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Greetings all, and I hope everyone is doing well. No need to get into specifics, but I'm happy to back to talk some college football and hopefully forget about what's been going on in the real world. I find myself constantly frustrated with the ways of the world nowadays, so I'm hoping to just immerse myself in this diversion. I haven't felt that I had enough competence to offer much in the way of opinions so far this year, and frankly I'm still not sure that I've gleaned enough from what's happened so far this year to give any solid opinions, but shit, I just felt like writing some stuff down, so if you like it, great, if not, maybe you'll talk me off a game. As far as results go, I've been a little better than a coin flip so far this year.

1. @Cincinnati -6.5 v Memphis: This is usually not a position where I'd want to be on the home favorite, since you'd assume the brilliant performance the Bearcats came up with last week would first be hard to repeat, and second would sap a lot of the value out of that side. Stay with me though. Cincinnati is easily the best defense that Memphis will have faced, and it coincides with some realities that might be setting in for them. First, their best back from last year Kenneth Gainwell opted out, and now so has their top WR ( by a lot) Damonte Coxy, who played the first couple of games but is now off the team. They've masked those losses so far, but I think it will start to become evident that they are missed when they face a stud defense with a solid scheme like Cincy under Luke Fickell. Also, the influence of Mike Norvell and the culture he built thee wanes with time. Defensively, Memphis ranks 84th in yards per play, so a Cincy offense that sometimes sputters won't have a high pressure defense to contend with. We've also got a double revenge scenario for the Bearcats as a stronger Memphis team knocked them off in back to back weeks to close out the regular season last year. Cincy surely remembers that and will be ready to roll, as they see themselves as a true contender for an outside shot at a playoff slot in this nutso season. Throw in the fact that Memphis has failed to cover their last 5 as a road dog and I'm a buyer.

2. @Kentucky +17 v Georgia: after watching Kentucky play offense the past few weeks, this is certainly not a particularly appetizing side to consider, but the situation is a good one for the Cats. Kentucky is up against it, and if they want to have a decent season this year, they'll need to have their best effort in this game, and they've been a scrappy bunch in the past, so I think Georgia will get their best effort. Georgia on the other hand was off last week coming off the Alabama loss and is looking ahead to Florida next week, so this noon time slot for them is about as flat a spot as you'll find on their schedule. Although Kentucky's offense is putrid, their defense competes and is solid in all phases, 23rd overall in yards per play and 29th and 21st respectively against the run and pass on a per attempt basis. Georgia has been pedestrian in their offensive stats, and now there's tape on Stetson Bennett, and I'm guessing he doesn't have Mark Stoops shaking in his boots. Ultimately, I'll probably avoid watching this one since I can't imagine it'll be pretty. I'll just hope to check my phone around 2PM central and hope the score is something like 19-11 or something.
 
3. Troy +3 @ Arkansas St: In my outline for handicapping games, I look at the same kind of stats that most of you look at and I match up the offenses against the defenses to see who has the edge. In this case, every single matchup came up in Troy's favor. In my opinion, the wrong team is favored. Now, last week against Georgia State Troy QB Gunnar Watson got hurt and looks to be out, but the backup Jacob Free came in and threw for 300+ yards and 3 scores (along with a couple picks). The good news is that Free now has time to prepare, and Georgia State is a significantly better defensive unit than Arky State. The Red Wolves come into this one ranked 91st in yards per play on defense and 89th in passing yards per attempt against. Troy's defense is also pretty good, ranked 25th to 40th in the key defensive metrics, and Arky State is very one dimensional, unable to run with any effectiveness. Overall, troy is a much more well rounded team, so I'll take the FG here.
 
Super pumped to see you back! BOL this week and season. If I wasn’t out at a brewery, I’d post the Harry Potter “He’s back” GIF for you.
 
Brass so glad to have you back, BOL on the weekend. I really like your take on Cin, and agree Memphis offense probably going to regress. I was high on KY for all the same reasons toughness on the LOS, solid coaching, competitive, hard nosed but damn they just can't pass. I took GA 1H in this one.
 
Ryno, can I take a rain check on the GIF?

Timmy, I hear ya. I'm hoping it's a low scoring game where 17 turns out to be a lot of points to account for. They've also shown a knack for scoring points without a lot of yards. (Kentucky I mean). Hopefully they get back to that.
 
4. UCF -2.5 @Houston: Obviously this game is likely to feature a ton of points, as the total is 82.5. Both teams will likely be throwing the ball at will on the other, although I think Houston has an even smaller chance of a prayer of stopping UCF rather than vice versa. Whenever you have a score projected to be that high, points are at much less a premium, and I have a hard time seeing Holgerson pulling off a straight up win in this game, especially for a couple reasons. First, they have not thus far been able to run the ball at all, and second, they have forced only 1 turnover in the 3 games they've played. On the flipside, UCF has 14 forced turnovers in 5 games, and Houston is prone to turning it over. So you have a team in Houston, ranked 92nd in yards per pass attempt against, and are incapable of getting turnovers, vs one of the top passing offenses in the country. How are they going to get stops? Unless they plan on scoring every time they have the ball while keeping a turnover prone offense from coughing it up against a ball-hawking defense, it's going to be a tall order to keep this game within a FG.
 
5. Northwestern +2.5 @ Iowa: I realize this is kind of a bold statement with a sample size of only one game, but I think Northwestern is a significantly better team than Iowa this year. And trust me, that's a huge departure from just a year ago when Iowa shut out the Cats in Evanston, but what a difference a year makes. Northwestern will be forever scarred by the memory of the totally inept and feckless Hunter Johnson, last year's starting QB who apparently pulled one of the great con jobs in high school evaluation history when he found himself ranked in the top 10 nationally and committed to Clemson out of Brownsburg HS in Indiana. Johnson was so bad, and the Cats were then so unlucky to have no real alternatives to him on their roster that they were stuck with him. The horrific QB play rendered meaningless the fact that they still had a pretty good defense, as well as a functioning run game that had a chance if there was any semblance of a passing attack to keep defenses honest. Fast forward to this year. Johnson is but a memory and the Cats have Indiana 5th year transfer Peyton Ramsey who more than qualifies as a merely competent signal caller. The defense and skill players return intact and Pat Fitzgerald remains one of the most resourceful coaches in America Iowa on the other hand has suffered heavy NFL caliber talent losses, most notably 1st rounder Tristan Wirfs and one man wrecking crew DE AJ Epenesa. They also have to replace long term starting QB Nate Stanley. The offense struggled for 20 points last week at Purdue and faces a much better D this week. Northwestern will also be able to settle into their comfy role as a road dog. It also doesn't help that Iowa's program had all kinds of political issues during the offseason, leading to reports of locker room unrest. I understand why you can't make NW a favorite here, but I do believe they are the better team.
 
6. @Auburn +2 v LSU: To me, this seems like a huge overreaction to LSU's victory over South Carolina last week. Granted, it was a great win for them, but virtually everything went perfect. As it stands, LSU is still ranked 91st in yards per play against and 93rd against the pass. Bo Nix, who definitely struggles against any kind of decent defense, will have a comfortable environment to work, and Auburn will get to go to work against newcomer TJ Finley, who admittedly played great against South Carolina in his home stadium debut, but will now have to work against a solid Auburn defense on the road who has the luxury of having some tape on him and can prepare appropriately. Auburn hasn't been a juggernaut on offense but they have the edge on paper against this LSU defense. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt here and there's no way LSU puts together 2 dream games in a row.
 
7. @Rutgers +13 v Indiana: Both teams enjoyed their biggest wins in a long time last week, and both were extremely fortunate. Rutgers won mostly due to 7 turnovers and a good run defense, while Indiana spent all but 2 drives getting stuffed by the Penn State defense only to find a way to win in overtime. In my opinion, Greg Schiano makes a huge difference for Rutgers, and that's probably the only place where he commands that kind of good karma. I think Indiana is going to suffer without Kalen DeBoer calling the plays, and they looked completely reliant on WR Whop Philyor to get them yards. If Rutgers can stuff the run like they did in East Lansing, (and Indiana's run game doesn't appear to be any better than MSU's) they'll make Michael Penix have to carry the entire load, and he didn't show the ability to make those throws last week for the vast majority of the game. The combination of the new karma with Sciano, plus Indiana's 1-7-1 record as a road favorite in their last 9 has me thinking the Knights can stay within a couple TDs.
 
8. Charlotte +10 @ Duke: Lost a little bit of value here, but I still like it at 10. Duke is 1-5, with their only victory coming at Syracuse a couple weeks ago. Duke usually relies on the underdog angle and teams not taking tem seriously to gain an edge, but that's not going to be the case here, as they are the big boys on the clock in this matchup, which is a role for which they are ill-suited. This game will clearly be more important for Charlotte, as it's a no win situation for Duke, as they take on what should be the in state patsy. However, Charlotte has a squad that matches up well with Duke on paper. The 49ers are ranked 32nd in yards per play and 19th in passing yards per attempt. Duke also turns the ball over like an addiction, which doesn't lend itself well to covering double digit spreads.
 
9. Missouri +14 @Florida: Since laying an egg at Tennessee a few weeks ago, Missouri has really righted the ship under first year coach Eli Drinkwitz, especially offensively. Defensively, they damn near pitched a shutout of Kentucky last week and Alabama's 410 yard output against them in the opener will almost certainly be the worst total the Tide puts up all year. Florida is coming off almost 2 weeks of not practicing and although their offense has been almost unstoppable, their defense has been historically bad by Florida standards. They rank 81st in both passing yards per attempt against and overall yards per play and they are dead last in allowing 3rd down conversions. They also have a look ahead game with Georgia next week, so it's possible this will not be a great effort for the Gators. On paper, these teams are much more evenly matched than the spread would suggest.
 
10. @Penn State +11 v Ohio State: Lost some value here and as I write this it looks to be going down further, but I like the Nits at this number. Penn State lost to Indiana, but that was a bit of a fluke, as Penn State outgained Indiana by a healthy margin. Penn State is a legit defensive outfit,, having held Indiana to just over 200 yards including overtime. Ohio State's run game was unimpressive in week one, so It's possible that OSU will be completely reliant Justin Fields to run the ball, which would be a bad sign. Penn State can try to victimize OSU's LBs, who aren't fast, and don't forget that the Buckeyes don't have someone of Chase Young or Nick Bosa's ability laying around waiting to play. Historically in this spot, Penn State has been really competitive, covering and coming close to an outright wins a couple times. I think this will be a game down to the wire.
 
Hey Bud! You're one of the few names (and avatars) I recognize from years ago as I always enjoyed your write-ups. Thanks for all the input! I'm with you this week on Northwestern and Penn State and am finishing up my write-ups and will post in my thread in the morning....

Good luck and Thanks for your contribution! College Football is def a great escape from the insanity that is the world right now
 
Br@ssknux said:
5. Northwestern +2.5 @ Iowa: I realize this is kind of a bold statement with a sample size of only one game, but I think Northwestern is a significantly better team than Iowa this year. And trust me, that's a huge departure from just a year ago when Iowa shut out the Cats in Evanston, but what a difference a year makes. Northwestern will be forever scarred by the memory of the totally inept and feckless Hunter Johnson, last year's starting QB who apparently pulled one of the great con jobs in high school evaluation history when he found himself ranked in the top 10 nationally and committed to Clemson out of Brownsburg HS in Indiana. Johnson was so bad, and the Cats were then so unlucky to have no real alternatives to him on their roster that they were stuck with him. The horrific QB play rendered meaningless the fact that they still had a pretty good defense, as well as a functioning run game that had a chance if there was any semblance of a passing attack to keep defenses honest. Fast forward to this year. Johnson is but a memory and the Cats have Indiana 5th year transfer Peyton Ramsey who more than qualifies as a merely competent signal caller. The defense and skill players return intact and Pat Fitzgerald remains one of the most resourceful coaches in America Iowa on the other hand has suffered heavy NFL caliber talent losses, most notably 1st rounder Tristan Wirfs and one man wrecking crew DE AJ Epenesa. They also have to replace long term starting QB Nate Stanley. The offense struggled for 20 points last week at Purdue and faces a much better D this week. Northwestern will also be able to settle into their comfy role as a road dog. It also doesn't help that Iowa's program had all kinds of political issues during the offseason, leading to reports of locker room unrest. I understand why you can't make NW a favorite here, but I do believe they are the better team.
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Entertaining read.

I am leaning more and more this way...

23-21 either way keeps popping in my head.
 
Br@ssknux said:
9. Missouri +14 @Florida: Since laying an egg at Tennessee a few weeks ago, Missouri has really righted the ship under first year coach Eli Drinkwitz, especially offensively. Defensively, they damn near pitched a shutout of Kentucky last week and Alabama's 410 yard output against them in the opener will almost certainly be the worst total the Tide puts up all year. Florida is coming off almost 2 weeks of not practicing and although their offense has been almost unstoppable, their defense has been historically bad by Florida standards. They rank 81st in both passing yards per attempt against and overall yards per play and they are dead last in allowing 3rd down conversions. They also have a look ahead game with Georgia next week, so it's possible this will not be a great effort for the Gators. On paper, these teams are much more evenly matched than the spread would suggest.
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Good thoughts here and good enough to keep me off my UF team total train this week.
 
11. @Texas Tech +16 v Oklahoma: Apparently, this line keeps rising, because I liked it earlier this week at 14. UNder Matt Wells, Texas Tech has kind of transformed themselves into a defensive squad that actually tries to stop you rather than just let you score so you they can get the ball back. This year so far they've been decent against the pass and actually pretty good on 3rd down. Offensively they've been good enough to be able to move the ball on the Sooners defense (which, as usual is ranked low nationally in yards per play (73rd). To cover this number, Rattler is going to have another great game and their defense is going to have to go on the road for the second consecutive week and play well against a competent opponent. Throw in that OU is 4-9 as a road favorite in their last 13 (counting last week) and that Tech is 4-0 as a home dog under Wells. 16 is a lot here in my opinion.
 
12. North Carolina -7 (-125) @ Virginia: Waited a bit on this since it went to 8...now you can get it at 7 with a little extra juice. I know a lot of people looked at this line and thought it looked fishy, but when you consider how different UNC has been on the road vs at home, you can see how the line makes sense. They've been machines(especially on offense) at home, but snuck by BC by 2 and lost outright to Florida State in their 2 road games. IN that context, laying 7 to Virginia doesn't seem all that unreasonable. Make no mistake though...UNC is a much better team than Virginia, and they're due to come up with a good road performance after those 2 stinkers. The most glaring difference between these teams is in the pass games. Howell and company should have no issues throwing the ball downfield against the #87 pass defense, and Virginia is completely one dimensional, utterly unable to move the ball through the air so far this year. The Cavs are also turning the ball over like it's going out of style, and if they do that a couple times in this game, unless they all of sudden figure out how to stop a legitimately elite passing attack, they're going to have a hard time keeping this one close.
 
Man, that Rutgers play. How does that ref live with himself on overturning that play? He said "#15 was on the 35, and the receiver was on the 36". What was he looking at? The guy who tossed it was slightly past the 35 and the guy who caught it was slightly past the 35. Maybe it was a foot forward, but certainly not conclusive. What an asshole.
 
The entire NC coaching staff should be summarily executed. The play call at the end of the first half with 12 sec left, was the fucking worst of all time. Longo should be beheaded for that fucking call. They are so fucking poorly coached on both sides of the ball, let Bronco just school them tonight with that fucking hybrid wildcat bullshit offense. Just terrible....
 
Br@ssknux said:
Man, that Rutgers play. How does that ref live with himself on overturning that play? He said "#15 was on the 35, and the receiver was on the 36". What was he looking at? The guy who tossed it was slightly past the 35 and the guy who caught it was slightly past the 35. Maybe it was a foot forward, but certainly not conclusive. What an asshole.
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while it’s tough to feel like I got cheated with Rutgers considering whatever that shit was never freaking happens but it sure was a bummer how excited I got to how down they made me when they overturned that! Maybe I’m biased since it cost me few parlays but it sure as hell appeared to be a sideways lateral to me, damn sure didn’t seem clear enough to overturn. I feel like I’m way to often on wrong side of some crazy ass play like that, I finally thought I got one and fucking review goes and snatches it back from me!!
 
2daBank said:
while it’s tough to feel like I got cheated with Rutgers considering whatever that shit was never freaking happens but it sure was a bummer how excited I got to how down they made me when they overturned that! Maybe I’m biased since it cost me few parlays but it sure as hell appeared to be a sideways lateral to me, damn sure didn’t seem clear enough to overturn. I feel like I’m way to often on wrong side of some crazy ass play like that, I finally thought I got one and fucking review goes and snatches it back from me!!
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I totally agree with that. I couldn't believe the refs had the balls to overturn that. Ref said "Player A was on the 35, player B was on the 36". Bullshit. Player A was falling across the 35 and was slightly across it when he pitched it and Player B was slightly across the 35 when he caught it. If it was forward, it was maybe a couple inches. Not complaining because that would have been a miracle, but that was not even close to conclusive IMO. If I'm the ref, there's no way I overturn that call on something like that.
 
Timh said:
The entire NC coaching staff should be summarily executed. The play call at the end of the first half with 12 sec left, was the fucking worst of all time. Longo should be beheaded for that fucking call. They are so fucking poorly coached on both sides of the ball, let Bronco just school them tonight with that fucking hybrid wildcat bullshit offense. Just terrible....
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Tim , welcome to the "get off my lawn" crowd.
We'll take you.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I totally agree with that. I couldn't believe the refs had the balls to overturn that. Ref said "Player A was on the 35, player B was on the 36". Bullshit. Player A was falling across the 35 and was slightly across it when he pitched it and Player B was slightly across the 35 when he caught it. If it was forward, it was maybe a couple inches. Not complaining because that would have been a miracle, but that was not even close to conclusive IMO. If I'm the ref, there's no way I overturn that call on something like that.
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there was no angle I thought that clearly showed it. Either way it was a cunt hair, the outcome was already decided why even waste all that time? Ultimately I think the fact I was watching needing that cover made it way worse than had I just heard bout it later. I was so damn happy then so so sad. Lol
 
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