College Football Week 9 Upset Alert: Top-Ranked Teams Are In Trouble
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, October 28, 2023 at 3:30 p.m. ET at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville
Brock Bowers' Injury
Saturday's game will be the first in which Georgia's star tight end, Brock Bowers, will be absent -- he sustained an ankle injury in his team's last game that will sideline him for many weeks.
Bowers' injury is critical because his role in the Bulldogs' offense is seminal.
Statistically speaking, he is by far his team's leading pass-catcher.
He has ten more receptions and 234 more passing yards than any of his teammates.
His importance to the Bulldogs' offense appears even more blatant when you watch Georgia play.
Time after time, quarterback Carson Beck relies on Bowers for big plays downfield and for first downs that sustain drives.
Clearly, he is Beck's go-to guy. Without him, Beck won't be so comfortable in the passing game.
With Beck at quarterback, even in times when Bowers was healthy, Georgia goes through long stretches of stale offensive play that features unproductive passing.
Georgia's Run Game
Especially without Bowers, the Bulldogs will lean on their run game.
It is hard to expect them to cover such a large spread while their offense remains rather one-dimensional.
Florida's run defense does have a negative reputation, but this reputation stems from its performances in other teams' venue, especially its initial road games where the entire team was non-competitive before they won at South Carolina.
The Gators have proven their ability to limit opposing running backs.
Tennessee's Jaylen Wright, for example, has four games in which he rushed for over 100 yards and averages 6.5 YPC.
Against Florida, however, he mustered 63 rushing yards on 3.9 YPC.
Georgia's Defense This Year
This season, Georgia's defense is not as good as it was last season.
Last year, the Bulldogs conceded seven points to South Carolina, ten to Auburn, zero to Vanderbilt, and six to Kentucky.
So far, this year's Georgia has allowed 14 to South Carolina, 20 to Auburn, 20 to Vanderbilt, and 13 to Kentucky.
If the pattern holds, Florida will exceed the 20-point total that it reached in last year's game against Georgia.
Given the fact that six of their seven opponents to date are either not Power Five or have a losing record, it is hard to make much out of the Bulldogs' defensive statistics except that they, too, show decline relative to last year despite their schedule so far.
Florida's Offense
This year's Florida will pass and run better than it did in last year's game against Georgia.
The Gators' offensive line has enabled both running backs, Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson Jr., to progress throughout the season.
Etienne now averages 5.9 YPC and Johnson Jr. 5.2.
Moreover, the Gators now boast a quarterback who can actually complete passes reliably.
Graham Mertz completes 76.2-percent of his passes.
Whereas Georgia will miss its top pass-catcher, Florida can lean on Ricky Pearsall, who has already exceeded his receiving total from last year.
Its more well-rounded offense will help Florida score more than enough points.
Best Bet: Florida +14.5 at -112 with BetOnline & Florida ML at +460 with BetOnline
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Saturday, October 28, 2023 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison
Series History
Wisconsin repeatedly plays Ohio State tough at home.
In 2019, the Badgers covered the spread in their home game against the Buckeyes.
Before that game, they stayed within a touchdown or won in their 2016, 2012, and 2010 games against Ohio State.
There is a long history of Wisconsin exceeding expectations in its home games against the Buckeyes.
Ohio State's Offense This Year
I find that the Buckeyes are favored too heavily, in view of their offensive decline relative to last season.
Last year, they averaged 44.2 points per game.
This season, their points per game average is 33.5.
Their current scoring average is also inflated by the cupcakes that they faced out of conference.
The only strong non-conference or Big Ten teams that their offense thrived against were Maryland and Purdue.
However, seven of their 37 points against Maryland came off a pick-six, and another seven were the outcome of a 17-yard drive.
As for Purdue, the Boilermakers rank 92nd in scoring defense.
Conversely, Wisconsin ranks 18th in the category.
In their other games, Ohio State scored 23 against Indiana, 17 against Notre Dame, and 20 against Penn State.
This will be one of those games in which Ohio State struggles to reach 20 points, leaving the Badgers' offense little to have to do.
A More Balanced Offense
Wisconsin will exceed the 12-point total that Penn State reached in its eight-point loss to Ohio State last week.
Penn State quarterback Drew Allar might seem impressive for not throwing any interceptions this year, but the reality is that he simply always plays within himself, electing to throw short passes and dump-offs that are basically immune to being intercepted.
With Braedyn Locke, we will see quick, short passes that facilitate quick touchdown drives, but we will also see some nice throws downfield, just as we did last week.
The Badgers will succeed primarily on the ground against an Ohio State run defense that is allowing 123.3 rushing yards per road game.
Most recently, at Purdue, Ohio State allowed the Boilermakers' Devin Mockobee to achieve his best rushing performance of the season.
Braelon Allen, for Wisconsin, is averaging 5.9 YPC.
A powerful runner who also boasts good finesse qualities, Allen will be the toughest Big Ten running back that Ohio State will have faced to date.
Bonus Consideration
After such a big win last week, in a hyped-up affair against highly-ranked Penn State, Ohio State could experience a let-down.
The potential let-down offers greater upside to an investment in the Badgers.
Best Bet: Wisconsin +15 at -115 with BetOnline & Wisconsin ML at +460 with BetOnline
Michigan State Spartans vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Saturday, October 28, 2023 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis
Minnesota's Offense
The impotence of Minnesota's offense will leave its defense too thin of a margin of error.
Ranking 109 in scoring offense, Minnesota repeatedly struggles to reach double digits.
It no longer has the same level of talent at running back and wide receiver as it did in previous years.
Moreover, its quarterback struggles to complete half his passes. Athan Kaliakmanis has yet to reach 200 yards passing in a game.
Michigan State's Run Defense
Given Kaliakmanis' deficiencies, it is critical for the Golden Gophers' offense that it run the ball well.
However, even after facing Michigan last week, Michigan State's rush defense ranks 35th.
During the offseason, the Spartans did a lot to improve their run defense. For example, they added a lot of strength to their defensive line.
With greater depth and ability, they managed to hold Michigan's star running back last week to 59 rushing yards on 3.9 YPC -- on the season, Blake Corum has 605 rushing yards on 5.4 YPC.
Little Scoring Needed
As evident in its debacle against Northwestern and its blowout loss against North Carolina, Minnesota's defense this year is not as scary as previous renditions.
As is normally the case, there is good talent in Michigan State's receiving crew, starting with the experienced Montorie Foster Jr. and slot receiver Tre Mosley.
Nathan Carter adds a bruising presence on the ground as well as quickness, both of which enabled him to average 5.4 YPC in his team's upset bid against Iowa.
With Katin Houser, the Spartans have a more efficient quarterback whose command of his offense helped him do enough for them to cover the spread against Rutgers.
Best Bet: Michigan State +7 at -112 with BetOnline & Michigan State ML at +230 with BetOnline
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, October 28, 2023 at 3:30 p.m. ET at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville
Brock Bowers' Injury
Saturday's game will be the first in which Georgia's star tight end, Brock Bowers, will be absent -- he sustained an ankle injury in his team's last game that will sideline him for many weeks.
Bowers' injury is critical because his role in the Bulldogs' offense is seminal.
Statistically speaking, he is by far his team's leading pass-catcher.
He has ten more receptions and 234 more passing yards than any of his teammates.
His importance to the Bulldogs' offense appears even more blatant when you watch Georgia play.
Time after time, quarterback Carson Beck relies on Bowers for big plays downfield and for first downs that sustain drives.
Clearly, he is Beck's go-to guy. Without him, Beck won't be so comfortable in the passing game.
With Beck at quarterback, even in times when Bowers was healthy, Georgia goes through long stretches of stale offensive play that features unproductive passing.
Georgia's Run Game
Especially without Bowers, the Bulldogs will lean on their run game.
It is hard to expect them to cover such a large spread while their offense remains rather one-dimensional.
Florida's run defense does have a negative reputation, but this reputation stems from its performances in other teams' venue, especially its initial road games where the entire team was non-competitive before they won at South Carolina.
The Gators have proven their ability to limit opposing running backs.
Tennessee's Jaylen Wright, for example, has four games in which he rushed for over 100 yards and averages 6.5 YPC.
Against Florida, however, he mustered 63 rushing yards on 3.9 YPC.
Georgia's Defense This Year
This season, Georgia's defense is not as good as it was last season.
Last year, the Bulldogs conceded seven points to South Carolina, ten to Auburn, zero to Vanderbilt, and six to Kentucky.
So far, this year's Georgia has allowed 14 to South Carolina, 20 to Auburn, 20 to Vanderbilt, and 13 to Kentucky.
If the pattern holds, Florida will exceed the 20-point total that it reached in last year's game against Georgia.
Given the fact that six of their seven opponents to date are either not Power Five or have a losing record, it is hard to make much out of the Bulldogs' defensive statistics except that they, too, show decline relative to last year despite their schedule so far.
Florida's Offense
This year's Florida will pass and run better than it did in last year's game against Georgia.
The Gators' offensive line has enabled both running backs, Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson Jr., to progress throughout the season.
Etienne now averages 5.9 YPC and Johnson Jr. 5.2.
Moreover, the Gators now boast a quarterback who can actually complete passes reliably.
Graham Mertz completes 76.2-percent of his passes.
Whereas Georgia will miss its top pass-catcher, Florida can lean on Ricky Pearsall, who has already exceeded his receiving total from last year.
Its more well-rounded offense will help Florida score more than enough points.
Best Bet: Florida +14.5 at -112 with BetOnline & Florida ML at +460 with BetOnline
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Saturday, October 28, 2023 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison
Series History
Wisconsin repeatedly plays Ohio State tough at home.
In 2019, the Badgers covered the spread in their home game against the Buckeyes.
Before that game, they stayed within a touchdown or won in their 2016, 2012, and 2010 games against Ohio State.
There is a long history of Wisconsin exceeding expectations in its home games against the Buckeyes.
Ohio State's Offense This Year
I find that the Buckeyes are favored too heavily, in view of their offensive decline relative to last season.
Last year, they averaged 44.2 points per game.
This season, their points per game average is 33.5.
Their current scoring average is also inflated by the cupcakes that they faced out of conference.
The only strong non-conference or Big Ten teams that their offense thrived against were Maryland and Purdue.
However, seven of their 37 points against Maryland came off a pick-six, and another seven were the outcome of a 17-yard drive.
As for Purdue, the Boilermakers rank 92nd in scoring defense.
Conversely, Wisconsin ranks 18th in the category.
In their other games, Ohio State scored 23 against Indiana, 17 against Notre Dame, and 20 against Penn State.
This will be one of those games in which Ohio State struggles to reach 20 points, leaving the Badgers' offense little to have to do.
A More Balanced Offense
Wisconsin will exceed the 12-point total that Penn State reached in its eight-point loss to Ohio State last week.
Penn State quarterback Drew Allar might seem impressive for not throwing any interceptions this year, but the reality is that he simply always plays within himself, electing to throw short passes and dump-offs that are basically immune to being intercepted.
With Braedyn Locke, we will see quick, short passes that facilitate quick touchdown drives, but we will also see some nice throws downfield, just as we did last week.
The Badgers will succeed primarily on the ground against an Ohio State run defense that is allowing 123.3 rushing yards per road game.
Most recently, at Purdue, Ohio State allowed the Boilermakers' Devin Mockobee to achieve his best rushing performance of the season.
Braelon Allen, for Wisconsin, is averaging 5.9 YPC.
A powerful runner who also boasts good finesse qualities, Allen will be the toughest Big Ten running back that Ohio State will have faced to date.
Bonus Consideration
After such a big win last week, in a hyped-up affair against highly-ranked Penn State, Ohio State could experience a let-down.
The potential let-down offers greater upside to an investment in the Badgers.
Best Bet: Wisconsin +15 at -115 with BetOnline & Wisconsin ML at +460 with BetOnline
Michigan State Spartans vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Saturday, October 28, 2023 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis
Minnesota's Offense
The impotence of Minnesota's offense will leave its defense too thin of a margin of error.
Ranking 109 in scoring offense, Minnesota repeatedly struggles to reach double digits.
It no longer has the same level of talent at running back and wide receiver as it did in previous years.
Moreover, its quarterback struggles to complete half his passes. Athan Kaliakmanis has yet to reach 200 yards passing in a game.
Michigan State's Run Defense
Given Kaliakmanis' deficiencies, it is critical for the Golden Gophers' offense that it run the ball well.
However, even after facing Michigan last week, Michigan State's rush defense ranks 35th.
During the offseason, the Spartans did a lot to improve their run defense. For example, they added a lot of strength to their defensive line.
With greater depth and ability, they managed to hold Michigan's star running back last week to 59 rushing yards on 3.9 YPC -- on the season, Blake Corum has 605 rushing yards on 5.4 YPC.
Little Scoring Needed
As evident in its debacle against Northwestern and its blowout loss against North Carolina, Minnesota's defense this year is not as scary as previous renditions.
As is normally the case, there is good talent in Michigan State's receiving crew, starting with the experienced Montorie Foster Jr. and slot receiver Tre Mosley.
Nathan Carter adds a bruising presence on the ground as well as quickness, both of which enabled him to average 5.4 YPC in his team's upset bid against Iowa.
With Katin Houser, the Spartans have a more efficient quarterback whose command of his offense helped him do enough for them to cover the spread against Rutgers.
Best Bet: Michigan State +7 at -112 with BetOnline & Michigan State ML at +230 with BetOnline
