Expert NCAAF Picks for Week 9
Wisconsin vs. Oregon (Oregon -34)
Saturday, October 25, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET
Oregon and Wisconsin are high-profile teams, although Wisconsin is incredibly remote from its usual reputation. The Badgers are struggling to score at all, having been shutout in consecutive games. They have failed to exceed ten points in any of their last four games, Their low scoring total will give Oregon’s offense less work to do to cover the spread, but the Ducks also don’t need the help. They most recently scored 56 points at Rutgers. This effort was representative of how high-powered their offense is, as it is led by a Heisman-caliber quarterback and two running backs who average over nine YPC.
The Ducks are 4-1 ATS as double-digit favorites. In the one ATS loss, Northwestern scored a very late and very improbable long touchdown. Northwestern also began improving a lot around that time, whereas Wisconsin appears to be free-falling with a head coach who is on his way out.
So, I recommend wagering on Oregon -34.
Boston College vs. Louisville (Louisville -24)
Saturday, October 25, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET
This is a game between familiar ACC foes where situational logic dictates what the best bet will be. Louisville is coming off a huge win against a highly-ranked Miami team. Recent history indicates that the Cardinals are primed to suffer a let-down. Some teams find it difficult to regroup and refocus after celebrating a massive victory. Louisville is one of those teams that struggles to face an unranked team even after simply playing against a ranked one.
Last year, after upsetting a ranked Clemson team, Louisville lost as a 20.5-point favorite at Stanford. The Cardinals also lost as strong favorites against SMU and Boston College after they had faced a ranked opponent in the previous week. Louisville is, since last season, 0-3 SU and ATS when facing an unranked team after facing a ranked one.
Given Louisville’s let-down tendency, it is not a valid argument to say that Boston College is a bad team. The Eagles are playing competitively, which indicates effort. When they compete against Louisville, they will cover the spread.
For the above reasons, wager on Boston College +24.
Houston vs. Arizona State (-7.5)
Saturday, October 25, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET
Houston allowed 28 points or more in two different games. In both games, they struggled against a good opposing quarterback, Behren Morton for Texas Tech and Noah Fifita for Arizona. Both of those quarterbacks achieved a high level of productivity and efficiency against the Cougars’ defense. Sam Leavitt, last year’s Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year, is a similarly capable quarterback. He enters this game having found his stride: in his last four games, he’s thrown six touchdowns to zero interceptions.
On offense, Houston relies primarily on its rush attack for yards. I like the Sun Devils’ defense because they rank 26th against the run. They just upset a Texas Tech team whose offense featured a dangerous running quarterback and a running back who had amassed 263 rushing yards against Kansas. Against ASU, both players combined for a modest 87 rushing yards.
History shows that, with Leavitt playing, the Sun Devils won’t have a let-down. Last year, they pummeled Arizona by 42 points after beating two straight ranked teams.
Therefore, bet on Arizona State -7.5.
Wisconsin vs. Oregon (Oregon -34)
Saturday, October 25, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET
Oregon and Wisconsin are high-profile teams, although Wisconsin is incredibly remote from its usual reputation. The Badgers are struggling to score at all, having been shutout in consecutive games. They have failed to exceed ten points in any of their last four games, Their low scoring total will give Oregon’s offense less work to do to cover the spread, but the Ducks also don’t need the help. They most recently scored 56 points at Rutgers. This effort was representative of how high-powered their offense is, as it is led by a Heisman-caliber quarterback and two running backs who average over nine YPC.
The Ducks are 4-1 ATS as double-digit favorites. In the one ATS loss, Northwestern scored a very late and very improbable long touchdown. Northwestern also began improving a lot around that time, whereas Wisconsin appears to be free-falling with a head coach who is on his way out.
So, I recommend wagering on Oregon -34.
Boston College vs. Louisville (Louisville -24)
Saturday, October 25, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET
This is a game between familiar ACC foes where situational logic dictates what the best bet will be. Louisville is coming off a huge win against a highly-ranked Miami team. Recent history indicates that the Cardinals are primed to suffer a let-down. Some teams find it difficult to regroup and refocus after celebrating a massive victory. Louisville is one of those teams that struggles to face an unranked team even after simply playing against a ranked one.
Last year, after upsetting a ranked Clemson team, Louisville lost as a 20.5-point favorite at Stanford. The Cardinals also lost as strong favorites against SMU and Boston College after they had faced a ranked opponent in the previous week. Louisville is, since last season, 0-3 SU and ATS when facing an unranked team after facing a ranked one.
Given Louisville’s let-down tendency, it is not a valid argument to say that Boston College is a bad team. The Eagles are playing competitively, which indicates effort. When they compete against Louisville, they will cover the spread.
For the above reasons, wager on Boston College +24.
Houston vs. Arizona State (-7.5)
Saturday, October 25, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET
Houston allowed 28 points or more in two different games. In both games, they struggled against a good opposing quarterback, Behren Morton for Texas Tech and Noah Fifita for Arizona. Both of those quarterbacks achieved a high level of productivity and efficiency against the Cougars’ defense. Sam Leavitt, last year’s Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year, is a similarly capable quarterback. He enters this game having found his stride: in his last four games, he’s thrown six touchdowns to zero interceptions.
On offense, Houston relies primarily on its rush attack for yards. I like the Sun Devils’ defense because they rank 26th against the run. They just upset a Texas Tech team whose offense featured a dangerous running quarterback and a running back who had amassed 263 rushing yards against Kansas. Against ASU, both players combined for a modest 87 rushing yards.
History shows that, with Leavitt playing, the Sun Devils won’t have a let-down. Last year, they pummeled Arizona by 42 points after beating two straight ranked teams.
Therefore, bet on Arizona State -7.5.
