Week 9 plays, leans, and a much needed Cincy bye week

Dmoney416

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
Week 1: 5-5, +2.25u
Week 2: 5-4, +0.8u (also 0-1 on ML plays)
Week 3: 7-3-1, +6.85u (also 0-1 on ML plays)
Week 4: 6-6, -2.575u
Week 5: 6-4, +3.825u (also 0-3 on ML plays for -.75u)
Week 6: 6-4, +4.45u
Week 7: 9-4, +9.7u
Week 8: 5-4, +1.8u
Straight plays: 49-34-1, +28.65u
MLs: 0-5, -1.55u
Total: 49-39-1, +27.1u

Not too bad of a week 8 at all. Was 5-2 at one point, but another + sign, so no complaints.

Season plays:

Syracuse Under 4.5 Wins (4.2u to win 4): W 20-12 (2-6)
Georgia Tech Over 7 Wins (3.45u to win 3): W 34-10 (5-3)
South Carolina Over 7 Wins (2.4u to win 2): L 17-6 (6-2)

Syracuse won a game that I expected them to win. They need to go 3-1 with @Pitt, USF, @UConn, and Cincy remaining for me to lose that bet. GT won, but lost Choice in the process - wouldn't mind a push there. South Car. lost a tough one which prevented me from celebrating a guaranteed push.

Week 9 plays:

South Florida -4 (2.75u to win 2.5)
 Boise St./Fresno St. UNDER 62.5 (2.2u to win 2)
Ball St./Illinois OVER 58.5 (2.2u to win 2)
Louisiana Tech/Utah St. UNDER 53.5 (2.2u to win 2)
 UAB +15 (2.2u to win 2)
Northwestern/Purdue OVER 63.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Air Force/New Mexico OVER 44.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Tulane +1 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Florida Atlantic -6.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)

Week 9 leans:

Mississippi +17.5
Kansas -2.5
UNLV +11.5
Washington -4
Eastern Michigan +5
Northern Illinois +4
Kentucky -13.5
Ohio St. -3.5
Washington St. +6.5


What I'm looking for later:

Boise St./Fresno St. UNDER
Indiana/Wisky OVER
NW/Purdue OVER
Ball St./Illinois OVER
Vanderbilt TT UNDER
Tulsa TT OVER

Too many leans this week, so I bolded the ones that I am taking seriously for now. They will be cut down as the week progresses.

GL to all this week. :cheers:
 
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Thanks Hunt and pags - looking to stay consistent down the home stretch.

Memphis at Tulane (+1)

I simply don't believe that Memphis should be a road favorite again here. This is Tulane's homecoming after 3 straight road games.

I believe that Tulane turnaround began in the first half in their game against LSU. The longer that they hung around, you could see their confidence growing. Even though they faltered 34-9 in the end, I think their improvement since that game is evident.

The turnaround can be attributed to two things. The switch can be attributed to the permanent switch to Anthony Scelfo at QB (with occasional effective appearances by Kevin Moore) and the absolutely stellar play of RB Matt Forte. Forte has had one of the real under the radar seasons, accumulating 1273 yards and 13 TDs along with a ridiculous 6.7 yards per carry.

Tulane comes off a 3 game road trip where they merely went 1-2, but those numbers are deceiving. In these games, they did what they do best and lost 2 tough games. Tulane lost 20-17 to Army in OT after Army scored 10 points in the last 1:40, including a 36 yard TD pass on the last play of regulation. They also fell to UAB 26-21 and defeated SMU 41-34.
In all three of these games, Tulane outgained their opponents (401-240 @Army, 504-372 @UAB, and 521-441 @SMU).

Matt Forte has run for 754 yards in the last three games. Forte had 202 @Army, 209 @UAB, and 343 @SMU. Now, all three of these teams are weak against the run - Army is 88th against the run, UAB is 118th, and SMU is 99th. However, the match-up is similar against Memphis. Memphis is 81st against the run, 83rd against the pass, and 86th in total defense. Expect another monster day from Forte.

The biggest concern in this game is Tulane against the pass, where they struggle. They must contain Martin Hankins/Will Hudgens. However, while Memphis is 32nd in the nation in passing yards, this passing duo has been quite inconsistent. About 700 of Hankins' 1138 yards came in their first two games against Mississippi and Jacksonville St.

Memphis has also been quite inconsistent on the road - they have given up at least 35 points in each of their 3 road games. They gave up 600 total yards in a 56-20 loss to Central Florida, they gave up a 31-6 lead in a 35-31 loss to Arkansas St, and still gave up well over 400 yards in a 38-35 win against Rice.

I expect Tulane to neutralize Joseph Doss as the Green Wave is solid against the run. Forte should keep the Memphis D on the field, and Tulane will do enough against the Memphis passing game to secure a homecoming victory.

Tulane 35
Memphis 28
 
i like that under on Boise St./Fresno St. if Ian Johnson isn't playing. I'm seeing he's out on some sites. good luck.
 
Had a small lean to memphis that i have slowly soured against ... you have convinced me to lay off the game. Excellent write up and i agree with your points throughout that post.
 
Excellent write-up on the Wave.

Great season.

Last wek was certainly shocking for the Bearcats. Hope they regroup and finish season on high note.
 
Thanks cogen - decided to bet it at 62.5
Thanks VK - line has shifted there.
Thanks BAR - Cincy was horrendous against Pitt.

GL this week.

Added these totals:

Boise St./Fresno St. UNDER 62.5 (2.2u to win 2)
Ball St./Illinois OVER 58.5 (2.2u to win 2)
Louisiana Tech/Utah St. UNDER 53.5 (2.2u to win 2)
Air Force/New Mexico OVER 44.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">D - if you don't mind me askin, you from/reside the cincy area? gl this week...
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Aztec - good to see you on FAU - GL this week.

G4M - No, I'm in Philly. Just a Cincy fan since those were the first games I remember watching. Been a Bearcats/Bengals fan ever since. GL this week.
 
you got a total two points better than me , respect you but kind of hate you right now. lol. i am under 51.5 in the latech game. i dont trust ball state to score in that one and since i already bet illinois ... i really dont want them too... so good health to you on that one .... hope illinois gets 60 for you hehe. leaned under in that fresno contest too ... good stuff as always ... seems like we are usually on atleast one total the same way lately ... so i must be doing something right atleast. gl brutha
 
Ok, let's tackle these totals.

Louisiana Tech/Utah St. Under 53.5

In my thread last week: http://cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?t=38209 (/end advertisement), I wrote that Utah St.'s offense is very weak and that many of their offensive scores were misleading. This continued against Nevada, where Kevin Robinson added another special teams TD, and they only lost by 3 despite being out-gained 472-212 and out-first downed (is that a word?) 27-12.

In my opinion, any total over 50 is a joke. I find it interesting that the La Tech/NMSU total earlier this year was set at 50 while NMSU is a run and gun team with no defense. Now we get a total that is over 50 for this game?

First of all, both teams run the ball more often than they pass it. La. Tech has 278 rushes to 261 passing attempts (and the ratio would be worse if not for garbage time passing), and Utah St. has rushed 279 times compared to 161 passes. So, once again, the clock will move. And, as we already know, Utah St. runs despite not being able to do it effectively. They have averaged 3 yards per carry on the season.

Also, Louisiana Tech is quite stingy against the run - they are 25th in the nation, allowing 115 yards per game. Cal's Justin Forsett ran for 153 yards against La. Tech and Boise St's James Avery ran for 109. Besides that, no RB has managed 100 yards against them. It should be noted that they did play against pass-happy Hawaii and NMSU (which reflects favorably on their rush D), but this unit is still very solid. They held Fresno's Lonyae Miller to 50 yards on 18 carries and Ole Miss's Green-Ellis to 54 yards on 14 carries.

Utah St owns the following statistics:

Total Yards: 253.9 (118th in Division I)
Passing yards: 134.4 (118th in Division I)
Rushing yards: 119.4 (91st in Division I)
Points per game: 20.0 (110th in Division I)

La. Tech:

Total Yards: 336.6 (98th in Division I)
Passing yards: 181.1 (97th in Division I)
Rushing yards: 155.4 (62nd in Division I)
Points per game: 20.4 (102nd in Division I)

La. Tech is 67h in total defense, but they are 25th against the run, which is what Utah St. does the most. The only real concern here is the Utah St. defense, which will need to hold against La. Tech's running attack. While La. Tech only averages 3.9 ypc as a team - both Patrick Jackson (4.3 avg on 117 carries) and Daniel Porter (7.0 avg on 54 carries) are more than capable of running.

Lastly, La. Tech has performed very poorly away from home when it comes to offense. They put up 12 @California, 6 @Fresno, and 0 @Ole Miss. They didn't average more than 3.2 ypc in any of these three games. While Utah St. doesn't present the same defensive challenge, it is still worth noting.

If it comes down to FG kicking, La. Tech's kicker Danny Horwedel has also struggled, hitting only 5-10 from 30+ yards.

Louisiana Tech 23
Utah St. 17
 
Ball St./Illinois Over 58.5

We have strength vs. weakness all over the field in this game. Ball St has seen a decline in their running game since the loss of MiQuale Lewis, but Frank Edmonds has been a decent fill-in. Edmonds had 388 yards on 95 carries (4.1 avg). That doesn't matter much, as I expect Ball St. to be throwing early and often in this one.

Ball St. showed a glimpse of this pass happy attack last week, throwing 48 times compared to only 24 runs in a 27-23 win over Western Michigan. The Nate Davis secret is out, and Ball St. sports the 18th best passing attack in the nation, averaging 288.8 yards per game. Davis has been nothing short of sensational, throwing for 2286 yards, 20 TDs, and only 3 INT. His game fits in perfectly with the lack of defense that is present in the MAC.

They will make a trip to play a BCS team in Illinois this week, and the ball will be in the air. Illinois is stout against the run, allowing only 107.4 yards per game. However, they rank 88th against the pass, giving up 252 yards per game. What makes this stat even more revealing is that they have not faced many pass oriented teams. In their games against D-I opponents, they have given up 200 or more yards in every game except against Iowa, where Jake Christensen was still a respectable 17-25 for 182 yards and a TD. Tyler Donovan threw for nearly 400 yards against them. I wouldn't be surprised to see Davis air it out nearly 50 times in this one.

Not only do we have strength vs. weakness there, but the Illinois running attack against the Ball St. defense is a huge mismatch. Illinois isn't an overly impressive offensive team, as they rank 73rd in total offense and 115 in passing. However, behind Williams, Mendenhall, Dufrene, and McGee, Illinois forms the 11th best rushing attack in the nation (230 yards per game). As a team, they average 5.4 yards per carry, and Mendenhall averages 6.3 yards per carry.

On the other hand, Ball St. can not stop anybody on the ground. They rank 111 in the nation, giving up 214 yards per game on the ground (426.9 total). This Ball St. has just been gashed on the ground by everybody, especially lately. Earlier in the year, Navy racked up over 500 yards rushing against them while averaging 8.0 yards per carry. Here is how the rush D has fared in the last three games:

Central Michigan: 45 rushes, 298 yards, 6.6 avg (LeFevour had 16 carries for 146 yards)
Western Kentucky: 54 rushes, 222 yards, 4.1 avg
Western Michigan: 44 rushes, 196 yards, 4.5 avg (Brandon West had 21 carries for 171 yards)The Western Michigan stats would have likely been worse had it not been for Tim Hiller's 10 rushes for -15 yards (due to sacks).

If Ball St. can't stop MAC and D-I transitional teams from running against them, I am quite interested to see how they handle a Big 10 offensive line along with Mendenhall.

Illinois 45
Ball St. 24
 
Great thread as always DMoney. Loving that AFA/NMU over. Hope the Lobos do most of the scoring. Good luck with the rest of the card.
 
that air force game barely sneaked over the total for you ..... with almost the whole second half to go .... in fact it was over by halftime unless the second half fell exactly 2-0 for one team or the other. great call.
 
Adding:

UAB +15 (2.2u to win 2)
Northwestern/Purdue OVER 63.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)

Still have leans on Wake Forest, Washington St., and Arky St. Will post if they are played.
 
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