-week 9 ncaaf-

[broadwayjoe]

*****BIG PLAY - 5 units - San Jose State +7*****/2 units ML +260

***BIG PLAY - OSU +3 (-120)***/ML +120

wanted to lock these in because i see some different numbers at other books that i don't wanna get stuck with. my first 5 unit play...we'll see how it goes, but i think i have the better team at home getting 7 pts

 

[jimbof20]

like both alot..gl

 

[broadwayjoe]

good week...6-3 on sides; 1-0 on totals, but gave that unit back going 1-4 -1 unit on ml dogs, with emu unlv and scar coming up just short, and of course msu getting blown out. concerns me that i went 1-3 on mac/big10 games, because usually that's my strength, but was able to overcome, and i had a good read on the games i didn't bet and obviously should have. i'll finally actually have some time tomorrow to give a full recap of last week and get the ytd record sorted out, add the rest of my plays, and start write-ups...

 

[Marlo]

Joe

That Penn St/Ohio St game is a toss up. A person wonders if Penn St's offense can keep up there scoring against hands down the best defense they will play this year in the Big 10.

I think this past week, they got caught looking ahead in the first half against Michigan.

Tough game to cap, but 3 could be the key number here

 

[broadwayjoe]

marlo, there are just teams that are near an auto-bet if they are dogs at home...the buckeyes have definitely done enough within their conference over the past few years to get my money as a home dog no matter who they're playing. i'll have much much more on this game later, but i've had this game circled as a play since the beginning of the year, and that's when i put it at -3.5...very little value on psu side imo

 

[Marlo]

Agree man on the value of the home dog.

After watching Penn State all year I love there offense, and I have my concerns about Ohio States offense, if you can stop Wells.

Either way this game decides the Big 10 Champ.

Good luck probably a no play, unless this gets hammered to 3.5 - 4, then its a auto play in terms of value on Ohio State.

 

[broadwayjoe]

not a whole lot to say here; just taking the much better defense at home here with a line i set at -5.5. i would lean the under as well, but worried about turnovers creating some short fields...should be a good game to watch. 24-17 temple

Temple -3

 

[scraps@midnight]

love it joe...good luck to us!

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

With you on Buckeyes and Owls.. GL Joe

 

[broadwayjoe]

adding:

AF 1h -3 (-105)

North Carolina -3

Cinci -1.5

EMU +24.5

Duke +10.5/ML +340

Kent St +7/ML +220

OK St +12.5

VT +5/ML +180

BG +8/ML +250

Washington +11.5/ML +330


Wake/Miami UNDER 42

Northwestern/Indiana OVER 49.5

Kent/Miami OH OVER 47.5

NM St/Idaho OVER 67

Wyoming/TCU UNDER 42.5


GL fellas...i'll do write-ups on the big plays and responses to any questions about the rest. hopefully i can get the ship turned around

 

[Dmoney416]

Really like almost all of your spread play joe - BOL this week.

Why Kent/MOH Over 47.5? Do you know what MOH's offensive strategy is gonna be here?

 

[broadwayjoe]

i see them running a pretty balanced offense, and i'm hoping they won't be too conservative...think the freshmen really brought a jolt of energy to this offense...if they trust belton who i like, he should deliver enough for miami to score in the 20s...thinking that kent could and hopefully will win, i think this has a good chance of being a 31-27 type game. kent's defense is so bad; i don't think the stats show how bad they are...i thought they were underrated coming in but boy have i been wrong. anybody just has to be licking their chops at film on these guys. miami's huge weakness is oline, and i don't have faith that kent can get pressure. miami really doesn't have bad skills players at all, it's just been really tough with that god awful oline. don't see a whole lot of difference between bg's defense and kent's. obviously, if kent can't get it done, that hurts the total, but i'm betting that kent will be able to score as well, thus my kent wager. should be a pretty even game, and i like trading scores. kent should finally have their offense fine-tuned and together. not only their running game with jarvis and edelman with flowers/terry backing him up, but shawn bayes has great ability to make big plays, and he matches up to get a couple here...he's really the biggest surprise for me at kent this year. i'm waiting for him to have a HUGE game. thinkin it might be here with the bye to prepare to utilize him a little better...

 

[RetroVK]

Very likely to rain in columbus .. would think that helps tosu side .. since they cant throw in perfect weather anyway

 

[nawlins51]

GL bro.

 

[broadwayjoe]

Very likely to rain in columbus .. would think that helps tosu side .. since they cant throw in perfect weather anyway

60% chance...and that's HUGE for a Bucks win. plus maybe the receivers will get seperation if psu defenders slip and fall down. i doubt it though

 

[Dmoney416]

Appreciate the Kent total reasoning joe - wasn't leaning either way, just seemed like the right number to me. Hope you are wrong about MOH putting up 28-31 though.....