Week 9 ML Dogs

not alot of attractive dogs this week imo. but I like nebraska. Wisconsin gave up alot of rush yards to them last year and struggled against qb run vs oregon and illinois last week. I kinda like utsa. I hate texas state qb but i don't think louisiana is a great team this year. rice and northwestern for short dogs

memphis beat cincy twice last year and laying 7 - not sure i like it myself but in principle memphis has value
 
Just played the below 10 at BM just for fun at $10 each...Hoping for at least 3 winners from this list. Best of luck to everyone this weekend!

CB


ECU +701
MD +849
Cuse +334
Charlotte +297
Rutgers +370
UNLV +448
Tx Tech +465
La Tech +355
Arky +370
Mizzou +415
 
ProV1Colt said:
Correct. Next week. Let’s get ready!!
Click to expand...

shoot I been ready!! I feel like I prob hit more dd dogs outright this season than I normally would and a big majority of them came in weeks where teams hadn’t played or not much as of yet and books just didn’t know how to line them anymore than we did! Rutgers last week was a good example (and only dd money line I bet/won last week), I think had that game happened few weeks later sparty would prob be more like -3/-4 instead of the -13 it opened or -10 it closed at.

Guess we know lot more about Rutgers this week again as dd dogs but this time vs a much better team than the one sparty fielding this season. I actually lean Rutgers again but with the points, not nearly as confident in them to win this week.
 
Texas State is definitely a long shot. They haven't played a good game since September...when in September they were playing ok. They haven't been able to regain that. The weather at Troy had them off track, the South Alabama game was close, but South Bama was better and they were clearly in a mismatch at BYU. I do still see some potential on this team even though it is getting more distant since they've played to that level.

I just continue to not be impressed with ULL, on a weekly basis, like every week. I'll give them credit for beating UAB who has an outstanding mid-major D and is always great at home (of course they always play cupcakes at home too in the CUSA), so ULL did enough there to eek out a 24-20 win. That kick return TD was a huge change of momentum, I'm not sure ULL was all that much better than UAB really. Lost to Coastal 27-30, beat Ga Southern 20-18, beat Ga State 34-31 OT and then the Iowa State win. Maybe it is just that the Sun Belt overall is improved (Ga State and Coastal) or it is that ULL has regressed for some reason, I don't know why. Maybe the OL losses mean more that anticipated (2 NFL draft picks gone). I don't think their receivers are great (haven't recovered from losing top 3 from last year - Bell was to be back but had PCL surgery) and the QB hasn't looked sharp all season. Running game is supposed to be a specialty but they rank in the middle, 5th, in the Sun Belt rushing O...one spot ahead of Texas State.

So for those kind of odds I'll fade a road team I am not high on vs a team I still think has some weapons and a couple players that can make a difference if they put it together. (now for the bad part, ULL wins vs TxSt - '19 31-3, '18 42-27, '17 24-7, '16 27-3 '15 49-27).
 
carolinablue said:
Just played the below 10 at BM just for fun at $10 each...Hoping for at least 3 winners from this list. Best of luck to everyone this weekend!

CB


ECU +701
MD +849
Cuse +334
Charlotte +297
Rutgers +370
UNLV +448
Tx Tech +465
La Tech +355
Arky +370
Mizzou +415
Click to expand...
Rutgers feels like it’s worth it, but man.....seems easy.

I like Tech (Bulldogs) too

Arky , fuck why not
 
twinkie13 said:
Rutgers feels like it’s worth it, but man.....seems easy.

I like Tech (Bulldogs) too

Arky , fuck why not
Click to expand...

Rutgers was just that easy last week! Seems to me books undervaluing the fact they have a better coach and qb. Hoosiers in obvious letdown spot after beating penn st in a game they were out gained by a huge margin. Havnt decided if I play the ml but def gonna be on them with dd points!!
 
Terry Wilson simply is not a good enough playmaker needed at QB to beat a team like Georgia. However! Now that Joey Gatewood has been named starting QB, Kentucky's offensive production can only go up....it'll be interesting to watch this game for the simple reason. Still a complete longshot....we're going to have to get poor play from Georgia in order to stand a chance.

kentuckysportsradio.com

Joey Gatewood named Kentucky starting quarterback vs. Georgia

The keys to Kentucky’s offense have been passed to Joey Gatewood. This Saturday Joey Gatewood will be the starting quarterback when the Wildcats host No. 5 Georgia at Kroger Field. The move was made after Terry Wilson suffered a wrist injury against Missouri, forcing No. 3 to miss practice this...
kentuckysportsradio.com kentuckysportsradio.com
 
East Carolina @ Tulsa:

There is some historical data that indicates there is a nice underdog play available on ECU tonight. Both these teams had the same record last season and, when they played, Tulsa tore up ECU by more than 15pts above the line. When I put this criteria into the SDQL, I come up with a 4-5 SU record for a 44% win percentage by the home team. However! What is most eye-opening is, if you look closely, 15pt and a 12pt favs have lost SU in this situation before! (See pic 1) ECU has had an extra week of rest to prep for this game and could very well have a bit of revenge on their minds. Furthermore, Philip Montgomery-coached teams are 4-10 ATS (28%) in home games when they are coming off a road game where they beat the spread. So there is at least a 70% chance tonight that Tulsa will not be playing very well. ECU is currently at +531 for the game and +438 for the 1st half. These numbers are waayyy too juicy to not take a shot at for me. BOL in what you decide Gents!

ecu-tul.jpg

pmont.jpg
 
It's almost go-time boyz!!

3, 4, & 5-teamer RRs:

#1
East Carolina +582
UNLV +418
Navy +367
Arkansas +402
Kentucky +597
Risking $16.48 (16 parlays at $1.03) To Win $13,158.56

#2
UNLV +418
Navy +367
Kentucky +597
East Carolina +428 for 1st Half
Arkansas +337 for 1st Half
Risking $16.64 (16 parlays at $1.04) To Win $9,460.27

BOLTA!!

:watchingsports:
 
I've been a sucker for ECU plenty through the years. Regarding revenge, safe to say they usually have revenge vs nearly every team they play annually.

Who is QB for Pirates tonight? Ahlers back?
 
s--k said:
I've been a sucker for ECU plenty through the years. Regarding revenge, safe to say they usually have revenge vs nearly every team they play annually.

Who is QB for Pirates tonight? Ahlers back?
Click to expand...
IDK....all I know is this has not been a good spot at all for Tulsa in the past and there's some historical mojo in my favor with teams like these two. So taking a shot at +438 & +531 is worth it IMHO.

:thumbsup3:
 
2daBank said:
Rutgers was just that easy last week! Seems to me books undervaluing the fact they have a better coach and qb. Hoosiers in obvious letdown spot after beating penn st in a game they were out gained by a huge margin. Havnt decided if I play the ml but def gonna be on them with dd points!!
Click to expand...

Sparty‘s coaching staff was also put in place a few months later than Rutgers‘...in February right before covid...so I think that definitely gave Rutgers an advantage
 
Wow....that Maryland game is why I got sucked into this ML Dog stuff! What a crazy way to get my first ML Dog win, even if it was only for a tiny $10 play, it was still fun to have a dog in the fight. Almost had that ECU ML Dog as well, but guess I can't complain too much, even though I did have Tulsa ATS so got screwed on both ends in that one. Definitely a fun night though and hopefully there is more to come today. Best of luck guys!
 
carolinablue said:
Wow....that Maryland game is why I got sucked into this ML Dog stuff! What a crazy way to get my first ML Dog win, even if it was only for a tiny $10 play, it was still fun to have a dog in the fight. Almost had that ECU ML Dog as well, but guess I can't complain too much, even though I did have Tulsa ATS so got screwed on both ends in that one. Definitely a fun night though and hopefully there is more to come today. Best of luck guys!
Click to expand...
now just sit back and enjoy the day!
great hit on the Terps! and it was the biggest bark
 
ProV1Colt said:
now just sit back and enjoy the day!
great hit on the Terps! and it was the biggest bark
Click to expand...
It's funny because after that one, I started to get greedy and wanted that ECU one bad and was pissed when they let it slip away at the end, but then I realized that I got lucky on that Maryland one as they could have folded after Minny went up by 10, so all about perspective haha.
 
Wondering if Navy might be one to consider? They have been hitting a bunch in practice since they realized how illprepared they were to start the season and they started having in-person group position meetings (they were conducting only zoom position meetings).

I'd submit they played Houston a little tougher than the 16 point margin implies (only outgained by 50 yards and missed 2 FGs and had xpt blk'd, and a few critical penalties helped UH O and hurt Navy O).

Last year, albeit a better Navy team, outgained SMU by 194 yards in the 35-28 Mids win.

Might SMU be a little flat after getting their shit pushed in by Cincy? SMU has only beat one FBS opponent this year by more than 1 score. Last 3 in the series with Navy-SMU have been 1 score games.

Always kind of scary to go against fast, athletic spread teams vs the Navy D, but I think playing Houston and SMU back-to-back helps some.

We'll see.
 
s--k said:
Wondering if Navy might be one to consider? They have been hitting a bunch in practice since they realized how illprepared they were to start the season and they started having in-person group position meetings (they were conducting only zoom position meetings).

I'd submit they played Houston a little tougher than the 16 point margin implies (only outgained by 50 yards and missed 2 FGs and had xpt blk'd, and a few critical penalties helped UH O and hurt Navy O).

Last year, albeit a better Navy team, outgained SMU by 194 yards in the 35-28 Mids win.

Might SMU be a little flat after getting their shit pushed in by Cincy? SMU has only beat one FBS opponent this year by more than 1 score. Last 3 in the series with Navy-SMU have been 1 score games.

Always kind of scary to go against fast, athletic spread teams vs the Navy D, but I think playing Houston and SMU back-to-back helps some.

We'll see.
Click to expand...

Using similar methods I used in post #24, I found the home team in this situation is 2-8 SU for a 20% win percentage in SDQL history....in addition, Sonny Dykes-coached teams are 0-4 SU in home games the week after a home game in which they lost ATS by greater than 10pts....these are a couple big reasons why I playing Navy ML again today. BOL in what you decide!

smu-navy.jpg

sdykes2.jpg
 
Using similar methods I used in post #24, I found the home team in this situation is 2-8 SU for a 20% win percentage in SDQL history....in addition, Sonny Dykes-coached teams are 0-4 SU in home games the week after a home game in which they lost ATS by greater than 10pts....these are a couple big reasons why I playing Navy ML again today. BOL in what you decide!
Click to expand...


LIKE!
 
JROCK1966 said:
Let's just hope this game has a different umpiring crew than the one in Tulsa last night!! I'm still pissed about that one.

:angrymob:
Click to expand...

Yeah I know, that sucks. Refs can't screw Navy, it'd be like screwing America I mean come on!
 
I added these two based on backing home dogs with better scoring offenses than their opponents and fading away favs with worse scoring defenses than their opponents.

3, 4, & 5-teamer RRs:

#3
Kansas State +176
Charlotte 1st Half +251
Rutgers 1st Half +291
Air Force 1st Half +327
Vanderbilt 1st Half +428

#4
Kansas State +176
Charlotte +296
Rutgers +367
Air Force +428
Vanderbilt +531

total risked above is $32 to win ~ $8,403.00

BOLTA!!
 
Vandy...I think I could write a list of negatives for Ole Miss right now, but Vandy...well I did bet Vandy when they played SCar so I'm not immune. Good luck - Go 'Dores!
 
s--k said:
Vandy...I think I could write a list of negatives for Ole Miss right now, but Vandy...well I did bet Vandy when they played SCar so I'm not immune. Good luck - Go 'Dores!
Click to expand...
Most everything I have researched says backing Lane Kiffin is the play here but I just have a gut feeling....they played awful after the home game vs. Bama and now they are again away after a home loss vs. Auburn.....looking at Vandy's schedule, if the Dores are going to win a game, IMHO it will be this one or next week at MSU if any.
 
Oh what the hell...I had some lunch money left in my account.....doesn't do me any good sitting there. So I'm adding this one for entertainment value for today if nothing else. Let's roll boyzzzzz!!

4, 5, & 6-teamer RRs:

#5
Kansas State +176
Rutgers +367
Air Force +438
UNLV +402
Navy +402
Arkansas +347 for 1st Half
Risking $14.74 (22 parlays at $0.67) To Win $16,587.39

BOLTA!!

:watchingsports:
 
OK, I have not been hitting very many of these this season. Last week I only posted the IU one in that thread, but did play 2 others that I went 1-1 on that I didn't post here.

So you know I like the upsets, let's go!

LaTech 50 to win 195
Navy 50 to win 188
Ark 50 to win 220
Texas St 50 to win 280
 
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