***Week 9 Lex***

Thursday

Henry rush yds o88.5

Waddle rec yds o64.5

3 units each



+4500

henry longest rush o19.5 yds & TD
Keaton 20+ rushing yards & TD

half unit


+1500
Henry 100+ rushing
Keaton Mitchell 20+ rushing
Achane 75+ rush & rec
Waddle longest rec o23.5

1 unit
 
Ravens terrible vs the pass and Miami terrible vs the run. Credit to stopping Bijan last week but the Ravens won't be rushing the ball under 10x that's for sure. I could see Mitchell getting a couple series which could cut into Henry usage... not enought to keep me off as all it takes is that one big 40+ rush and it's smooth sailing. Would think they don'twant Lamar sitting back ion the pocket too long so I expect carries galore....

Waddle same situation as Odunze last week- again 1 30+ reception gets you halfway there I am in..


No interest in laying 7 on the road with a bad d but I don't want to play a home dog with little chance of stopping the run. Ravens still playing for the division as crazy as that is. Total high but again could seea 31-23 type game. GL everyone
 
2-2 +4.5 both Waddle & Henry props went as I thought they would. Keaton only gets 4 carries or I hit the +1500 that's parlay life.
 
Bills tt over 25.5

KC is back to the team we all know they are- Rice is a problem and Kelce can still play. The Bills can't get a wr open past 10 yards- people are clamoring for Shaheed in a trade so we have another not #1 wr. The Bills built this offense as a KC beater but they keep missing on offensive weapons. Except Cook. I think McD has finally realized that Cook has to get 20+ touches min. Panthers knew it was coming but couldn't stop it. When the line is blocking the way they were last week, he's getting 5+ yds and setting up short yardage plays. I think the Bills o-line is going to give them a good shot at winning this game. They will need SOMETHING on the outside. I have a hunch they will look to get elijah Moore a couple more targets, especially if Palmer can't go. Allen pointed out post game he missed him wide open and Elijah has been playing good ball. Gabe Davis was elevated which I think is proof we are nearing desperation but he is also a great blocking wr. To win Allen will have to make some big plays vs the blitzes KC will throw at him. I worry about him trying to be a hero again which is fun to watch but not what they need.

KC might be able to throw all over the Bills- Although very promising last week Hairston played 22 snaps I believe. His speed is unreal so it'll be interesting to see him when he's on worthy. Allowing a bigger more physical Benford to cover Rice has to be the best route, but I'm curious to see how they go about covering Kelce. Taron played a ton last week but I don't think the Bills are as worried about the run... Poyer is the safety so if the corners are getting beat the Bills are toast. Looking like Shaq might not play which is rough. D line was owning last week but Mahomes is a different animal than Dalton. I do think they will be able to disrupt the KC offense but they're putting up 24+ regardless let's be honest.

The Bills finally back home after what feels like an eternity. I think it'll still be fresh in their minds the clunker they put up vs the Patriots. They haven't lost b2b home games in 4 years. They scored 27+ in every game but vs NE last season. I am really hoping they come out and stick to what they do best- running the ball and controlling the line. Going to have to keep KC off the field so I do expect them to try and slow pace- still have to stick to what I think is the best wager on board and play the home team to get to 26+ like they almost always do at home.

I wouldn't be on anything under here even though I do think KC has a good defense. As of right now my only other lean is Cook rushing yards over 74.5. Another situation where if he rips off 1 25 yarder you're getting there. My only concern is they try to beat the blitz by throwing out of the backfield- they haven't done this all season and I've been waiting for it. Cook rec yards is risky but if there's a week for it.....

I'll have more thoughts
 
Bills tt went from 25.5 to 26.5 so I'm glad I got the wager in early.

Prater with an injured calf on his kicking leg & he's going to have to play through it. Could come into play- the Bills may be more inclined to go for it rather than fg attempts if it's a close call.

KC is insanely good on 4th downs this season 17 of 20 converted I believe.

Both teams will want to try & keep the opposing offense off the field & you know the Bills are running so the pace may not favor an over. That being said I think KC will be able to get chunk plays as the defense even during a good series will give up an easy 12 yard pass. Buffalo has to score tds to win. I think these teams will try everything to not punt the ball if they can. The Bills were unreal last week getting chunk yardage on first down & keeping away from 3rd & long. I would think Reid will do everything he can to try & stop Cook early which is why I hesitate to jump on his yardage prop. Right now these are the props I am interested in (not locked in)

Cook rec yds o11.5-114 he has 1 target & no catches last 3 games. He was targeted 5x & broke a 51 yarder vs the Ravens & then the Bills stopped throwing to rbs. Last year vs KC in the playoffs he had 3 catches for 49 yds. He went over this number in 10 games last season (playoffs included). KC gonna blitz and if Cook releases I like his chances, also think he will shake a LB if the mismatch is there.

Elijah Moore rec yds o17.5-120 With Palmer out again Elijah will see playing time. Again Allen mentioned getting him the ball & I love props that can hit on 1-2 catches.

Rice TD -104 I think he's going to get his & would expect a ton of targets. He's going to test these corners
 
I guess it's a props week for me

Odunze td+112

Nico TD+155

DK Metcalf rec yds o61.5

JJefferson rec yds o73.5

Chimare Dike rec yds o36.5

3 units each


+7296 (boosted)

Dike 60+ rec yds
DK 80+ rec yds
Odunze 50+ rec yds
CMC TD
Sutton 30+ rec yds
Nico 40+ rec yds
Jefferson 50+ rec yds
Rashee rice 50+ rec yds
James Cook 75+ rush & rec yds

half unit



+16000

DK Metcalf 2tds & 50+rec yds
JJefferson 2tds & 70+ rec yds

.25 units
 
bears/bengals o51

Texans tt o20.5

3 units each


+1690

Jamar Chase td
Bears/bengals o46
wanDale 60+ rec yds
Texans tt o20.5
Falcons 1sth tt o9.5

Half unit
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top