***Week 9 Lex***

Lexington 125

Lexington 125

I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Another great week, let’s keep it rolling!!!!

davante adams rec yds o58.5-114

Davante anytime td+130

Mixon rush yds o82.5-114

Texans tt o20.5+100

1sth o20.5-117

2 units each
 
Jets d overrated. Jets offense too good to not put up points. Stroud should be able to move the ball on jets d. I think both get to 23. I’ll look for value in game but the thought of LAYING chalk with the jets makes me throw up in my mouth.
 
Damn I’m on 1st half under 21.5. Maybe we land in 21!! I don’t think either team do a ton and expect fg’s instead of tds out the Texans.
 
6-6 +2.5 thursday. If I only had played mixon rush in the parlay over mixon rec.

Going through player props and trying to narrow down the plays.....
 
Still looking into a couple more players for props, but these are my top 4

Achane- this is the type of rb that will always give Buffalo problems.... I suspect a ton of ppl to be on Tyreek props and I don't blame them. I just think that Achane can really give Buffalo problems in the passing game and on the ground. Even in the blowout win earlier this season he was getting chunk yardage. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see him break off a 30+ yd gainer....

Lamb- Another star player with a big line but he will see 10+ targets and I don't think the Falcons can stop it. Falcons vs wrs with a pulse

DK- 4-99-1td

Dionte Johnson 6-76-1td

Godwin- 5-64
Evans- 5-62-2td

Olave 8-87
Shaheed 8-83

Rashee Rice 12-110-1

Pickens 6-85


I think it's another 100 yd 1 td game for CeeDee


AJ- love this one Jags D still hot garbage.Might be on his longest rec as well because I just looked at all the long passes Jax allows and it's insane.

Tyreek 7-130-1td (80 yd long)
Waddle 5-109 (63)
Achane 7-76 (39)

Jeudy 5-73 (30)

Shakir 6-72 (27)
Kincaid 28 yd long rec
Keon 24 yd long rec

Nico- 12-151-1 (26)
Diggs 5-69 (28)
Ogunbowle-(31 yd long rec)
Stover (27)

Pierce 3-134-1 (65)
Pittman 27 yd longest rec

Kmet- 31 yd rec
Odunze- 28 yd rec

Doubs 29 yd long
Reed 51 yd long.

So to me the Jags have faced 3 top tier wrs in Hill, Waddle & Nico. All three popped off. AJ gone over this number every start and 3 of 4 games had a rec of 40 yards or more.


Gibbs- this one may be a bit riskier as Mont will be taking carries away and it's on grass. Still think GB can't stop the run. GB vs rbs

Barkley 24-109-2tds (34 yd long rush)

JTaylor 12-103 (29 yd longest rush)

titans did nothing

Aaron Jones 22-93 (4-46 rec)

Kyren- 22-102-1 (30 yd rush)

Cards did nothing

Mixon 25-115-2tds

Bigsby 18-78

I would def put Gibbs in the Mixon, Kyren, Barkley talent level and they all fared well. Choosing to include the passing because again he's capable of taking a swing pass to the house at any given time.
 
My only concern with AJ is whether Jags stay close enough to compel Eagles to pass enough. Jax run D is actually good but it is Saquon. Jags‘ games against the top tier WR you mentioned were all close affairs
 
VirginiaCavs said:
My only concern with AJ is whether Jags stay close enough to compel Eagles to pass enough. Jax run D is actually good but it is Saquon. Jags‘ games against the top tier WR you mentioned were all close affairs
Click to expand...
Those are all the games they played with the exception of the patriots. Only data to go off and again it could only take 1 50+ yd catch early to coast to victory
 
I love achane, not sure for this week just in general he one my fav backs. Did you play his rush+rec? I hate the tack on extra yards playing that but w him feel like it a must cause he will always be involved in the passing game and anytime he touches it he liable to go the distance!

With the way Dallas offense constructed CD is pretty much an every week play! Gotta think Bijan is a nightmare for Dallas d also!



Gibbs might be better than then all other than Barkley cause he can score from anywhere on the field! Another guy you almost gotta go rush + rec cause he can take any little pass to the house and he usually a big part the passing game!
 
here's the rest of my card for today

Props

Henry rush yds o87.5-115

Chuba rush yds o66.5-115

Bowers rec yds o64.5-118

3 units each


Cowboys+3.5-120

Patriots 1sth tt o8.5-112

Bears/Cardinals o44.5

Lions 1sth tt o12.5-124

Rams-2.5-109

Rams/Hawks o48-105

4 units each


Cowboys 1sth tt o12.5-114

NYG tt o19.5-125

2 units each


+3100

Panthers ML
Cowboys ML
Patriots ML
Vikings ML

half unit



+19404

Chuba rush o84.5 & TD
Bowers rec o79.5 & TD
Tolbert rec o59.5 & TD

half unit
 
Contemplating how I go about the Bills game. Been crushing Bills games last couple weeks. Still looking at a couple TD props.... have a couple crazy ML parlays going from yesterday with Bills ML to close one and Bills/Lions to close the other. There will be no hedging
 
bulldogs said:
Loving Dak over 265.5
Click to expand...
I've played maybe 3 qb props this season but yeah tough to argue that one!

I think Tolbert adjusted yards over is a very nice wager- tolbert yds & TD nice to throw into a parlay. If Dak goes over good chance Tolbert gets yards. I'm already in on Lamb prop though hate to play 2 wr props big on the same team.
 
Henry prop is inflated and I'm on it. WHY?

rbs vs Denver

Walker 20-103-1 (24 yard long rush)

Irving 9-70 (32 yards long rush)

Dobbins 25-96-1 (20)

They stuffed the Jets run game but here we have a spot with the Ravens off a loss where Henry had a season low 11 carries (still had 73 & 1td with a 39 yard run). I know the Ravens have said they are keeping his touches down but 11 is way low & I think we see a different game vs Denver. Denver D is soooooo good yeah I don't buy it. They haven't faced a run game in the same stratosphere as Henry/Lamar

I think he gets a heavy workload this week 16+ which if he rips off that one rush gets there with ease......
 
Henry longest rush o19.5-115

Kyren longest rush o17.5-122

AJ Brown longest rec o26.5-115

1.5 units each/ parlayed+535 half unit
 
Cook TD-160

2 units


SGP+1200

Cook rush o54.5 & TD
Ray Davis rush o18.5
Tyreek rec yds o59.5
Kincaid yds o29.5
Shakir catches o3.5

half unit




+830

Bills 1sth o12.5/ Cook TD
Henry TD
Cook TD
Barkley TD
Lions 1sth tt o12.5

half unit


Cook TD is juicy maybe lower other places but my favorite TD prop on board this week. Miami has given up a rushing td every game this year to a rb. Cook is that dude. Never layed chalk on a TD prop but I can't get away from it.
 
Lexington 125 said:
here's the rest of my card for today

Props

Henry rush yds o87.5-115

Chuba rush yds o66.5-115

Bowers rec yds o64.5-118

3 units each


Cowboys+3.5-120

Patriots 1sth tt o8.5-112

Bears/Cardinals o44.5

Lions 1sth tt o12.5-124

Rams-2.5-109

Rams/Hawks o48-105

4 units each


Cowboys 1sth tt o12.5-114

NYG tt o19.5-125

2 units each


+3100

Panthers ML
Cowboys ML
Patriots ML
Vikings ML

half unit



+19404

Chuba rush o84.5 & TD
Bowers rec o79.5 & TD
Tolbert rec o59.5 & TD

half unit
Click to expand...

Love bowers and rams..

Love to hear why you like Dallas? Bijan and Pitts will have field days.

Understand chubbard but that gane has so much variance feel like he could be scripted out but he is tempting. Depends if you think panthers d can muck game up.
 
Barkley rec is criminally low but for some reason Philly forgets he great out the backfield and prob help hurts to get him some easy ones. Jags terrible defending rb in pass game. His number only 14.5 and 25 + pays +225!!
 
Are all jags WRs hurt? I like hurts props but not if jags can’t push. I saw their backs on Injury report also! Literally all their WRs, Kirk out, Davis ?, Thomas ?, I’d love to play Thomas but he so iffy they don’t even have a number up yet.
 
Washigton d been better but I don’t think they can stop Nabers, if they do them slayton becomes a play. Tend to think Nabars hits easy. Mcclarrion and Daniels hadn’t found their chemistry in the 1st meeting, 61.5 here a no brainer and might as well look at alt numbers
 
Lexington 125 said:
Henry prop is inflated and I'm on it. WHY?

rbs vs Denver

Walker 20-103-1 (24 yard long rush)

Irving 9-70 (32 yards long rush)

Dobbins 25-96-1 (20)

They stuffed the Jets run game but here we have a spot with the Ravens off a loss where Henry had a season low 11 carries (still had 73 & 1td with a 39 yard run). I know the Ravens have said they are keeping his touches down but 11 is way low & I think we see a different game vs Denver. Denver D is soooooo good yeah I don't buy it. They haven't faced a run game in the same stratosphere as Henry/Lamar

I think he gets a heavy workload this week 16+ which if he rips off that one rush gets there with ease......
Click to expand...

Im super interested in donks rec props here, ravens d still getting respect. Sutton low at 51.5. Going back to the well w Franklin as I believe at some point the duck buddies makes some plays, super low 22.5, alt of 50+ pays well. Agree w Henry I think ravens make a huge mistake trying to run offense thru pass today, they need to set up shots w play action, then of course Henry might have 14 for 30 going into 4th but game script should be him salting the game away and he liable to hit a 50+ if they hammer on donks d all game.
 
2daBank said:
Love bowers and rams..

Love to hear why you like Dallas? Bijan and Pitts will have field days.

Understand chubbard but that gane has so much variance feel like he could be scripted out but he is tempting. Depends if you think panthers d can muck game up.
Click to expand...
Ultimate buy low on Boys/sell high on Falcons.

Cowboys lost to the Saints, Ravens, Lions and 49ers, 3 teams are in the top 5 in the league. I still have them as the better team and I think they go on a run.

ATL had the pleasure of facing a decimated TB & Car and to me showed how flawed a defense they are last week. Pts allowed are crazy each week and teams are starting to get to Cousins. Dallas D if anything can get sacks and I think they get to Cousins here. If he gets rattled the ints are coming....

Seattle manhandled the Falcons a couple weeks ago I think ppl are way too high on the dirty birds
 
2daBank said:
Sorry bout the extra i thought we were in prop thread! Lol
Click to expand...
no worries love a good convo.

You make great points about the props you like... so funny I wouldn't have zeroed in on any other than Nabers but they all make great sense. I have more out there in props than ever in my life honestly or I would tail. Maybe a small parlay haha
 
Lexington 125 said:
Ultimate buy low on Boys/sell high on Falcons.

Cowboys lost to the Saints, Ravens, Lions and 49ers, 3 teams are in the top 5 in the league. I still have them as the better team and I think they go on a run.

ATL had the pleasure of facing a decimated TB & Car and to me showed how flawed a defense they are last week. Pts allowed are crazy each week and teams are starting to get to Cousins. Dallas D if anything can get sacks and I think they get to Cousins here. If he gets rattled the ints are coming....

Seattle manhandled the Falcons a couple weeks ago I think ppl are way too high on the dirty birds
Click to expand...

I believed that coming into the year bout atl, it strictly matchup based, I think Bijan has a monster here. Dont mean cd can’t have 12 for 259 and pull it out. I side for me was just curious what you saw and the situations make sense for sure.
 
Lexington 125 said:
no worries love a good convo.

You make great points about the props you like... so funny I wouldn't have zeroed in on any other than Nabers but they all make great sense. I have more out there in props than ever in my life honestly or I would tail. Maybe a small parlay haha
Click to expand...

Most weeks I end up picking up few yours for parlay too 👍
 
another parlay smh

+250

Chargers ML
Bengals ML
VikingsML

2 units


If Winston can do the same against a good D I'll tip my cap. Chargers offense a mess but Better qb & defense. Only action on Chargers game but had to play them, and no way I would play Bengals ats though I think they win by 14+.


I have a couple plays ending in VikingsML tonight and think they absolutely destroy the Colts so we'll see how things shake out
 
I think it will be the browns d that impress tofay, don’t think chargers have a wr that can separate from that d. Don’t think Winston be as good but don’t underestimate how good this team has been and how happy they are to have a real leader not an overpaid rapist. That game a war imo. Sucks browns draw these guys cause id kill for a higher thought of team and some points. Love the 1st half under.
 
dolphins/bills o49.5

2 units

Gotta play it been staring all week. Bills d has been playing great but I just have a hunch this is a high scoring affair. FWIW if you like Miami ats I think tt over 20.5 is a much much better wager.

Go bills!
 
Bills thoughts

Close to kickoff so minds are made up but here's what I think

Many calling this a possible flat spot for Buffalo but I just don't see it. They know they have to continue to win to even have a shot at the #1 seed. I'd be shocked to see them come out flat.

That being said, they will be without a couple players as will Miami. No Benford means Elam plays and you really need all hands on deck with this wr tandem. Benford out means losing a bit of physicality. Cooper out offensively may hurt the passing game but keep in mind Holland is out at FS. also the nickle corner is out.

Said it last game they played Poyer is washed. There will be a play where he gets roasted. Ramsey def beatable at this stage and we all Allen vs the Fins stats...

With no Coop Hollins likely plays more which I love for the run game. Hollins/Keon are crushing blocks in the run game (another reason I love Cook & Ray today)

I have my concerns that Hill/Waddle/Achane will make it a close game, 6.5 divisional game is a tough line in this spot. To me it would be Bills or nothing, but again I think the over is best here with the defensive injuries and what I see as favorable matchups for offensive players.
 
2daBank said:
I hate to say this and home im
Wrong but if It sloppy in gb I think momgomery becomes more effective. Gibbs was made for turf imo
Click to expand...
could be but I could see GB missing tackles and slipping just as easily as Gibbs. Monty td propb a good wager as well
 
snf
Vikings tt o26.5
Colts/Vikings 1sth o23.5
Aaron jones rush yds o73.5
Jefferson longest rec o26.5
Downs rec yds o66.5
2 units each



Jefferson td-165

Downs td+163

1 unit each
 
MNF

Kelce rec yds o49.5/KC ML -110

Kelce td-106

Kelce longest rec o20.5

Xavier Worthy longest rec o19.5

Kareem Hunt rush & rec o79.5

2 units each
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Lexington 125
***Week 8 Lex***
2
Replies
66
Views
1K
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
Lexington 125
***Week 5 Lex***
Replies
31
Views
640
Lexington 125
Lexington 125
Lexington 125
***Week 2 Lex***
Replies
31
Views
669
Timh
Timh
Lexington 125
***4***
Replies
27
Views
625
Lexington 125
Lexington 125
Lexington 125
***Week 3 Lex***
Replies
25
Views
649
Lexington 125
Lexington 125
Back
Top