Week 9 HAMMERS!!!!!

HammersSpreads

HammersSpreads

Pretty much a regular
Season Record: 38-23 (62.30%)
Sides Record: 34-20 (63.00%)
Totals Record: 4-2 (66.67%)


MASTER Record: 6-3 (66.67%)

HAMMERED Record: 0-1 (0.00%)

3-6 Last Week (1-0 MASTER)

Poor job reading games last week by me. Started out with a great game on Friday w/ UCF +13 & ML. But fell apart early Saturday.
WVU felt like the right side, but didn't work out.
Toledo didn't work out.
Florida just isn't a good football team right now. It's obvious injuries have paid it's toll on this team. Something like 9 starters are out now for them, & they are crumbling....particularly on the defensive front, where they have lost EVERYONE. I called for a breakout game for Kelvin Taylor, & that could have happened if they would give him the ball more. Offensive gameplan is bad around there
Wyoming was probably my worst pick of the year thusfar. I just couldn't stay away from it, even though it looked fishy.
Kent St. wasnt a good read either, even though it was a couple plays away from being a much more competitive game
I feel very fortune to have gotten the FSU/Clem Over, but then again if someone told me that a team would score 51 points, I would have take the Over all day long. Think it was the right side, but it was very very stressful.
Frustrating b/c I picked a couple games I normally would lay off of in Toledo & Wyoming, & the other leans I had like Houston (which people gave me grief about) & Auburn I didn't pick. That's the way it goes though.


I have glanced at the card, haven't done research yet. I have read a little into 2 games though that jumped out at me & I absolutely love. These 2 could be very big plays. I have discussed how I am a huge OU follower, and i rarely bet OU games, but I may come out of retirement this week

Leans:
OU (-7)
Bowling Green (-4)
 
Last edited:
Oklahoma/Texas Tech

2 weeks ago I had a lengthy write up about OU/Texas. In that I said that in order for Texas to win or even stand a chance they would have to run right up the middle of OU who had just lost Corey Nelson (LB) & Jordan Phillips (DT) on offense. & on defense they would have to show a completely different look than they had the last couple weeks w/ the new DC at the helm. They did both, & totally dominated OU. Blake Bell had happy feet b/c he had no idea what he was looking at, and that lead to plenty of poor decisions. I did not state that I saw Texas winning, although I wouldn't have been surprised....just b/c we had not seen anything before that game that justified Texas coming out on top.

This week, we get another good look & after the game should have a good idea of how good these teams really are. I'll start by looking at how the teams have done so far. 1st off, TT has a defense that ranks up in the top of the nation, & of course a very stout passing offense (ranked #2 nationally). The interest comes from OU having the best pass defense in the nation, & a very good running game.
TT has played only 1 team w/ a winning record, & that team is Texas St (4-3). OU has only played 2 teams w/ winning records, however, those teams are Texas (4-2) & Notre Dame (5-2). Most every place has OU's Strength of schedule ranked 30-60 spots above Texas Techs.

To dig into some stats:
TT's defense has played 4 offenses that rank 100th or higher in the nation. The other 2 offense were: SMU (43rd) in which they allowed +50 more yards than SMU averages on the year, & West Virginia (78th) in which they allowed +40 more yards than they average. The only rushing offense they have played that ranks lower than 85th nationally is Texas St.
OU's defense has played 3 offenses that rank 100th or higher in the nation, as well as 3 that rank in the 70's & 80's, & 1 (Texas) that ranks 37th. Every offense they have faced has not reached their average offensive output on the year. They have not faced an elite passing offense, but have played 3 passing offense that rank between 50-60 nationally & held all under their normal output.
TT's offense has faced 4 passing defenses that rank 100th or higher nationally. TCU ranks 55th nationally, & is by far the best defense TT has faced. They held them to 335 yds total, and under 300 yds passing (TCU defense gives up 240 passing yds/game average). Kansas is ranked 40th nationally pass defense (for what its worth).
OU's offense has faced 4 rushing defenses that rank 90th or higher nationally. TCU (17th) & Notre Dame (24th) are the other 2 teams, and OU ran for 100 more yards than both these teams average giving up on the ground.

Texas Tech is 111th nationally in GiveAways & is 9th in the Big 12 w/ a -4 T.O. margin
OU is 46th in Giveaways & has a +1 margin

OU ranks top of the Big 12 in Time Of Possession, while Texas Tech ranks toward the bottom

TT has a substantial advantage on 3rd down offense, while both teams are pretty stout on 3rd down defense


Take those for what they are worth. Just thought some of them were interesting. Here is what sticks out to me: Texas Tech has had minimal competition so far this year. Their schedule has been weak, with WVU being their toughest opponent so far this year, & they were trailing 11 points in the 4th quarter (it was still an impressive win nonetheless). OU's schedule has been much more difficult, with their only blemish coming in a huge emotional rivalry game.

I brought up the Texas game in the 1st paragraph b/c I warn people to compare Texas to this Texas Tech game. Texas has the talent of a top 5 team, Tech doesn't. They are built and have the personnel (when they are motivated) to run the football, Tech doesn't. They also had the privledge to "hide" their defensive scheme for the OU game. They had essentially 3 weeks to prepare for OU (even Mack Brown said they planned for OU the week they played Iowa St). Neither of these are the case this week. Everyone know by now that the weakness of OU's defense is to run it up the middle. Texas Tech ranks as one of the worst offensive running teams & averages under 4ypc. I fully expect Kingsbury to try to run the ball, and I'm sure it will be a little effective, but not near as much as it needs to be. Also, Mike Stoops installed this defense over the offseason to combat the spread offenses. This is the 1st spread offense OU will face this year, so this is the game we get to see if this new defense actually works. The main thing to keep in mind here, is that this defense spent the WHOLE OFFSEASON preparing & going against spread offenses like Techs, b/c that is what it is designed to stop, & that is what they see most in the Big 12. Furthermore, Techs defense doesn't have the luxury of having extra weeks to prepare for OU like Texas did, as well as them not having the luxury of this game being earlier in the season where they could have "hidden" their defense until they played OU. We all know the smart thing to do is to load up the box & make Blake Bell throw the ball. So it will be interesting to see if Bell can stay composed & not confused if he is relied on to throw the ball. B/c right now, OU has no downfield passing game.

Another thing that really sticks out in this game is the fact that this is the 2 straight conference roadie for TT. They just travelled 1500 miles to Morgantown, played a full hard fought game, flew 1500 miles back to Lubbock, & now have to turn around & go to Norman. Road trips like this can be grueling on a team (we saw it last year when WV traveled to Austin & won a hard fought game, then traveled to Lubbock the next week & got murdered). I also think this will be by far the best home crowd in Norman this year. Homecoming, the players & fans still remember Tech ending OU's home win streak 2 years ago, & all the fans/coaches/players want to recreate the atmosphere that was here in 2008 when they knocked off an undefeated Tech. One positive for Tech is that it's a 2:30 kickoff instead of a night game.


I love what Kingsbury is doing, & hell I may have a slight man crush on him. I think he is good for Tech, and I'm sure he will lead them to competitive years. However, this week just feels like the week OU puts together a complete game. I haven't been impressed w/ many of Techs wins, & their schedule has been bad. Tech will have to load the box & stop the run, & make Bell beat them, as well as find a way to run the football on OU. B/c as I do believe Webb will have an opportunity to put up good yardage, I don't think a true freshman coming into Norman is a good recipe for success, even with as impressive as he has been.


I plan on coming out of my "don't bet on OU games" retirement this week. I have yet to place my bet, but will inform when I do. I am still waiting to see if the line goes down even more. Regardless, I feel like anything under double digits is a good bet, as I feel that OU wins by 2-3 TD's.


 
Not that past seasons matter, but Tech is 4-4 in the L8 matchups against OU, alternating wins and losses. The best record of any team in the big 12 against them.
 
Yes with 3 of those coming in Lubbock, bc Lubbock is a b*tch to play at.

I'm not a big trends guy, but just saw one on my twitter feed: Bob Stoops is 19-1 in first meetings versus opposing Big 12 coaches. Lone loss coming 2001 to Les Miles
 
HammersSpreads said:
Yes with 3 of those coming in Lubbock, bc Lubbock is a b*tch to play at.

I'm not a big trends guy, but just saw one on my twitter feed: Bob Stoops is 19-1 in first meetings versus opposing Big 12 coaches. Lone loss coming 2001 to Les Miles
Click to expand...

Very true. Good Luck Hammer.
 
They are a tough team to figure out Hunt.....thats for sure!! I feel like I have a good feel for this game, although anything can happen as OU is one of the riskiest teams to bet on in recent history IMO.
 
If you only use conference stats, both teams have played tcu, WV, and Kansas. OU is worse in turnover margin than Tech is, which surprised me.
 
Bowling Green Falcons (-4)

I was not on the BG train at the beginning of the season, unlike most of the MAC hype that surrounded them. I figured their defense would be stout again, but had serious questions about their offense.....especially when they lost their starting RB & LT (NFL caliber) in the preseason. My main concern with them was the starting QB position. I was never a Schiltz fan, & that turned out to be true when he got pulled in the 1st game of the season. Matt Johnson has came in & played wonderfully all year long, giving this team a chance to run the table the rest of the way. The running game has been phenomenial, & BGSU has one of the most balanced offenses in not only the MAC, but also the country. The defense has been stout still, ranking in the top of the MAC in almost all categories, even being in the top 15 in scoring defense & passing defense nationally, as well as #1 in Red Zone Defense!!!!! I actually think they have the best team in the MAC.

I've always been a big Toledo fan, but have been disappointed with them this year. They are still dominate on the run game, as David Fluellen is one of the best RB's that nobody knows about. However, QB Terrence Owens has regressed from last year....& has been turnover prone & inaccurate. Their rush defense was solid statistically up until last week when they had to play Navy, & the pass defense has been suspect.

Key points here:
Bowling Green is coming off a bye week. Toledo is coming off a 2OT game against Navy & could be worn out after playing a physical game.
Bowling Green ranks #3 nationally in Time of Possession, while Toledo ranks #103.
Toledo is in the top 20 in takeaways, however Bowling Green ranks #2 nationally in giveaways.
Bowling Green WR Gallon hurt his knee last game against Miss St & is out for the year.
Toledo one of their best, if not the best, defensive players last week in LB Voss for the year. RB Fluellen also got injured (back) & is questionable (i saw the hit live & it was nasty, looked very painful & dirty).


Bowling Green coming off a bye & Toledo having to play on the road after a physical game last week has to be worrisome for the Rockets. I'm not too worried about the Gallon injury for BGSU b/c they have had 2 weeks to practice without him, & they have plenty of other WR's & TE to make up for his catches. However, if Fluellen is not 100% (and i honestly don't know how he could be), then that hurts Toledo immensely. The other RB Hunt has played good, but it is hard to see him being able to carry the load Fluellen did (almost 200 yds/game). Trent Voss injury is also a big one for Toledo IMO. I look for Bowling Green to continue to be balanced on offense, convert 3rd downs as they have all year & as how Toledo has allowed all year, & continue to control the clock to keep Toledo's running game off the field. I see basically all signs pointing to Bowling Green here....and the only angle I can see favor Toledo is the running game vs BGSU running defense, although I think that is a very little favor to Toledo b/c Bowling Green defense is legit. I could write more about this game, but I gotta run for now....running out of time tonight.

1 unit on the game for now, but should be much more added to it later in the week.
 
Bowling Green is the only play locked in, but here are other strong leans which will most likely be played. I will post when I lock them down. OU will also be a play this week as well, but the write up is above.


Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-2.5)

Tulsa has not been pretty this year. Cody Green has regressed, although he looked better last game. The offensive line has regressed, although they looked better last game. Trey watts is a stud. The defense is improving every week, but it's main problem is that it has little help from the offense bc of Cody greens inability and turnovers.

Something to look at is how even though Tulane is 5-2, they have been outgained (yardage) in almost every game including -233 and -133 yards the last 2 games and still won!! Both games they won by 3 points, and both games they could have easily lost if it wasn't for long special teams and defensive TD's.

So basically it comes down to can you trust Cody Green to not turn the ball over?? Was last game a sign for Tulsa that they are finally coming around as a team this year??

I'm happy for Tulane for the success this year, but hearing that they took last week off was weak IMO. I can guarantee you that Tulsa didn't take any days off during their bye this last week. I was already leaning Tulsa on this game just bc I can't believe that they are actually this bad (I worry that Blankenship isn't as good a coach as once thought, and now that he's losing Graham's recruits it's showing). But after looking and seeing how unimpressive Tulanes wins have been, and how badly they have been outgained in games, and hearing this news about not using your bye week to prepare....I like Tulsa even more. Cody Green has played really well the last 6 quarters and looks to be getting back on track, but hearing that he hasnt practiced fully & he hasnt been gettin much 1st team reps b/c of his knee injury suffered last game has me worried. I'm still very tempted to take Tulsa knowing all their success they have had against Tulane, & my bitterness towards Tulane taking a week off to prepare when they are in the middle of a conference title hunt & not even bowl eligible yet.


Buffalo ML

I certainly feel bad for Kent St this year. They have been riddled w/ injuries, & have played a gauntlet of a schedule. The just got off a stretch where they played 6 games in 5 different states. QB, DT (best defensive player), RB injuries have plaqued them all year long, as well as having to play such a tough schedule. Buffalo on the other hand has had a cake walk the last 5 weeks, in which they took care of all the business & did it handily the last 4 games. Buffalo is rolling right now with dominating defense & very sound, balanced offense. They have one of the best RB's & LB's you've never heard of in Brandon Oliver & Khalil Mack. Their defense gets after the QB & forces TO's, while their offense controls the clock with the efficient and balance.
Kent St has had the much tougher schedule, & Dri Archer finally looks like his old self. However, I didn't believe before this year, & I don't now, that Kent St is anywhere near they were last year. I thought that Buffalo would be a bowl team this year and they have been even exceeding expectation so far, even though the schedule gets tough for them from here on out.
Kent St probably matches up against Buffalo's offense better than it does against spread teams, but I just think Buffalo is playing all around better football with a better team....& Dri Archer is amazing, but I wouldn't feel comfortable backing Kent St knowing he has to do almost everything for them. I'm waiting to see what Buffalo's WR Neutz status is, but regardless, I think I will back the better team currently at even money.


N'Western (+3.5)

TCU (-1.5) &/or UNDER 51

Oregon/UCLA OVER 70.5

SDSU/Fresno OVER 61.5

Arizona/Colorado OVER 57.5


Ran short on time. I'll try to be back later for more write ups.​
 
Hammers, sorry man I gotta call you out on that record. You left out the New Mexico +13 loss and you didnt count those 3 ML loses. I noticed from earlier thread you were counting ML plays as wins so that should work both ways. Not trying to start something just want to keep you honest. I had you in the top 10 over at CappersList so I've been following your plays.
 
Ah ya my bad man. I honestly miscalculated that New Mexico game. Honestly forgot I put it on the forums bc I added it and Oregon st last week, but didn't think I posted either. I just checked and I did post NM. And I didn't go back and check my last weeks thread when I posted up this one. I feel like an idiot now. Thanks for putting that to my attention...I get swamped with stuff and just obviously missed it. By no means am I trying to leave games off my record to make it look better.

As as for the underdog ML's, I don't count them towards my record if I'm playing the team ATS and ML bc I put 1+ units on the ATS and 1/4 unit max on the ML. Only time I count that game is if I'm putting a full unit on them or just playing the ML solely. Maybe I'll just make a separate record for those small ML's as well. Main reason I don't keep track of units on here is bc it's a chore when betting other games or when doing parlays.

Thanks for looking out.
 
Nice thread Hammers.

We have strong agreement on Bowling Green.

I wish you luck on everything.
 
Ya I was about to hit you up on your thread bc I read your views on that game. We are right on the same page. I did not know about Bowling Greens DT's though, so that was enlightening. If they are 100% then I feel even better about the game. Them being hurt this year explains why they have been a little vulnerable against the run
 
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Wyoming Cowboys (+8.5)

[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Boy oh boy it is tough backing the Cowboys for me this year. I am 0-2 when doing so, & both times have been when they were huge public plays. This week I feel like this is a game going completely under the radar. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I have been very critical on SJSU, mainly b/c they have no offensive & defensive line, so they cant run the ball or stop the run. Wyoming has one of the worst rush defenses in the league statistically, but they have also faced some of the best rushing teams in the nation in Nebraska, Air Force, New Mexico....even Colorado St & Texas St are respectable run teams. Basically I dont think Wyoming is THAT bad against the run, or at least I dont think it will come into play this week b/c SJSU can not run the football. Flip side, Wyoming CAN run the football, w/ both RB & QB. I dont see how the Spartans will stop it. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Spartans off a bye could be a good spot, but the Cowboys coming off an a*skicking against their rival should have them very hungry here. Fales will have his typical daunting number b/c he is that good, but this game looks like it could be a shootout. I think Wyoming should be able to get more stops than SJSU. Wyoming has an advantage on 3rd downs both offensively & defensively against SJSU (thanks to their balance), & also boast a much better Red Zone scoring that Sparty, as well as the Cowboys have the best Red Zone defense in the MWC.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This looks like a play for me this weekend, & I will probably sprinkle some on the ML[/FONT]
 
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Other Leans:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
TCU -2 & UNDER 51 - I still think Texas is a bad team. I think they blew their load against OU. I think the bye came at an awful time for Texas last week. TCU is life or death now. Pachall may come back, for whatever thats worth b/c TCU has one of the worst offenses ever to be in the Big 12. Basically I have a hard time seeing even 1 team score in the 20's here. What Texas did to OU won't work against TCU b/c they have the big boys on defense to stop their run. So then the pressure is on Case McCoy to pass on the best d-line & best secondary he has faced. I would also expect Boykin to be RRRUUUUUNNNNNNNIINNNNGGG in this game b/c Patterson is a smarter man than Stoops & knows that Texas still hasnt shown they can stop the running QB.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
N'Western +3.5 - They give Iowa fits. I may throw down a little bit on this ML if I knew Colter was in good shape b/c it seems as if their running game gives Iowa trouble. However, Iowa shouldnt have a problem running the ball on them as well. Still on the fence here.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
Oregon/UCLA O 72 - This game should get in the 80's or 90's shouldn't it?? ........ If it doesn't, then I think Oregon may be upset this week.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
SDSU/Fresno O62 - I actually like SDSU to possibly win straight up here. SDSU faced Sean Mannion earlier in the year, so I think that may help them prepare for Derek Carr. Aztecs coming off a bye week which was much needed as they did play 3 straight short week games (only team in the nation to do that). However, SDSU has NO pass defense, so I'm sure Carr will get plenty. Aztecs much more balanced on offense now too. I see both teams hitting the 30's, possibly 40's in a good close game.
[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Arizona/Colorado O 58 - This game has FLOWN over the total the last 2 years they have played w/ 77 & 87 total points scored. This total looks way off. [/FONT]


Again...I will post when I lock them in. Get it Get it!!!!!
 
Wyoming Cowboys (+8.5)
Click to expand...

Glad to be on the same page as you once again. I just posted some thoughts about Wyoming in my thread. They are an outstanding road underdog and have some surprising outright wins the last few years in that role.

I would have played this at the smaller opening number, but am happy to have a little more cushion now.
 
Ha ha yea I just saw your thread and had to give my props to ya for all your work. I didn't know they were that strong as a road dog so that makes me feel even better.

I was a huge SJSU fan last year, but thought they would struggle this year in a better MWC. Their problem is the new coaches have went from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense and they don't have the players for it yet, especially to stop the run. SJSU has 2 really good players in QB Fales and LB Smith that are next level players, but Fales has gotten little help from the o-line and running game, and smith has gotten no help anywhere on the defense
 
Bowling Green Falcons (-4) ----- MASTERED


Buffalo Bulls ML (-108)


Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-3)



May come back and add more to Bowling Green as it is my most confident pick I've had week 3 (of course when Bama got backdoored by A&M -8).
I'll throw in the late games tomorrow as well
 
Bowling Green Falcons (-4) ----- HAMMERED

OU Sooners (-6.5) ----- MASTERED


Buffalo Bulls ML (-108)

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-3)
 
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