Week 9 HAMMERS!!!!!

[HammersSpreads]

'14 REGULAR SEASON:


Season Record: 43-43-2 (50.00%)
Sides Record: 43-39-2 (52.43%)
Totals Record: 0-4 (0.00%)

Small Potatoes (<1u): 8-16-1 (33.33%)
on the REG: 28-22-1 (56.00%)

MASTERED Record (3u): 7-5 (58.33%)

HAMMERED Record (5u): 0-0 (0.00%)


ML Parlay: 5-6
DOG ML's (+200 or better): 8-11



Week 9 Plays:

ULL ML (+150) ----- Small Potatoes WINNER

Va Tech ML (+130) ----- Small Potatoes LOSER

ULM Warhawks ML (-120) ----- MASTERLOSER

Ohio (+10) ----- REG LOSER
Ohio ML (+310) LOSER

Texas (+10) ----- REG LOSER
Texas ML (+310) LOSER

North Carolina (+7) ----- REG WINNER
UNC ML (+230) WINNER

Texas Tech (+23) ----- REG LOSER

Akron (-2.5) ----- REG LOSER

Central Michigan (-5.5) ----- REG WINNER

South Carolina (+19) ----- Small Potatoes WINNER

Wazzou (+2.5) ----- Small Potatoes LOSER

Washington ML (+155) ----- Small Potatoes LOSER

ML Parlay (+170): WINNER
South Bama, Toledo, Stanford, Bama, Mich St, UCLA, Missy St

 

[HammersSpreads]

Another up & down Roller Coaster week that I found a way to scramble together a couple units on. And 2nd straight week that almost all my leans ended up covering...eh oh well.

Here are some thoughts on the bets:

FACT: Dating back to last year, I am now 9-1 betting SJSU Spartans games & am on an 8-0 run currently.

Week 8 Plays:

ULL ML (+120) ----- Small Potatoes WINNER
Should have been more. Would have been more if I wasn't worried about the weeknight on the road angle.

Virginia (+3) ----- REG LOSER
No regrets

FIU (+22.5) ----- Small Potatoes LOSER
Only 2 more games left of betting against Marshall on the road. Probably a good thing.

SJSU Sparta ML (-120) ----- MASTERED WINNER
SJSU Sparta (1.5) ---- REG WINNER
Probably my best capped game all year long. If it would have lost, then it would have been one of the worst in recent memory. Every reason I gave to take SJSU played out, & every thing I was worried about played out, but at a much higher level than I could have expected. Anyway, SJSU's first EIGHT drives all got into Wyoming territory w/ 6 of them getting into the red zone at one point. The 2 drives that didnt make it to the Red Zone probably would have gotten there if they hadn't fumbled, & 1 of those was taken back for 6pts for Wyoming. Conversely, 6 of Wyoming's first 8 drives resulted in a 3 & out. Up 17-10 and right before Wyoming broke off a 50 yd TD run (altitude getting to SJSU) w/ 12 minutes left, SJSU held a 390-100yd edge!! Pretty incredible it was such a sweat.

Okie St (+10) ----- REG LOSER
Okie St ML (+330) LOSER
I said there were countless reasons not to make this bet, & still did it. Terrible decision by me, and a terrible bet. Played out just how it should have....dumb Bryan, DUMB. It was pretty damn fun to watch Meachem show off in front of Gundy. Think Mike G is regretting hiring his OC from Shippingsburg?? lolololololol

Texas Tech (-13) ----- Small Potatoes PUSH IT

Notre Dame (+10) ----- REG WINNER
Notre Dame ML (+320) LOSER
Really got kind of scared betting this b/c I know a lot of people were on ND. Hell, I do a pick-ems league ATS w/ about 15 friends & TEN people were on ND. But nothing I had seen throughout the year had told me not to take this. I know who the better team was on Saturday, could have really gone for that extra +320 ML ticket being cashed. I'll probably be one of the retards that has L'Ville circled next Thursday night against FSU.

Nevada (+12) ----- REG WINNER
Nevada ML (+380) WINNER
Nevada really isn't all that good of a football team as a whole, but Cody Fajaro just takes games over....& that's exactly what he did Saturday night. BYU will get things figured out soon & win out. May not be this weekend, but it will be soon.

Cuse/Stanford LOSER
Clearly overvalued Stanford. Only reason I didn't bet them ATS heavy was b/c I figured one day the Devils would get tired of Stanford beat that a*s. Just happened sooner than I had hoped. Kick myself for not betting Cuse ATS....loved it all week & talked myself off it b/c of injuries.

ML Parlay (+135): LOSER
OU, Baylor, SDSU
Waaaay off. These are losing a surprisingly higher rate than normal. But can get back on track real quick. & b/c they are always + money, I'm really only down just a tad on the ML parlays.



This is usually the time of year I can zone in on some of these smaller conferences. There's a lot I like at first glance, & it may be time for me to dive into the MAC play (which for some reason I have laid off of for the most part).
Am I retarded for thinking that 21 points is way too much to be giving Texas Tech in this spot for TCU??

 

[HammersSpreads]

Probably a good time to do some futures updates too. I dont do many, but here is where they stand:

Baltimore Ravens OVER 8.5 wins (-110) ----- 2 units
Right where I pegged them to be. Baring any ridiculous injuries, the team is right on track. Ravens are a 10-11 win football team this year.

SDSU OVER 6.5 wins (+180) ----- 0.5u
About where I thought they would be too. Like where it stands & the fact that the MWC is fairly average. They also should get completely healthy after this by week & have been playing pretty banged up. Should get back both LB's (who are 2 of the top 3 players on their defense) & their best player on their team WR Ruffin is expected back after the bye as well. Team should just keep getting better too, between getting healthy & the young defense is really coming on well.

Auburn UNDER 9.5 wins ----- 1u
I'm fine w/ where it stands. Gauntlet coming up. Too bad K-State did the most un-KState like thing ever & handed Auburn the game earlier in the year or this would be in fantastic shape.

Va Tech to win ACC (+1400) ----- 0.25u
Eh....probably a donation. Not inconceivable to think they might be able to win out though.

Florida to win SEC East (+435) ----- 0.5u
Couldn't have been more wrong

Toledo to win MAC (+310) ----- 0.5u
Best team in the MAC. Tough stretch is coming up. Take care of business against the lower teams & find a way to beat NIU and they will be in Detroit. Glad they got Central Mich & Western Mich out of the way already. Sneaky tough teams there.

Houston to win AAC (+300) ----- 0.5u
Looked bad early. Don't look as bad now. Starting to find their stride but I was off b/c I expected O'Korn to be leading the charge. 1 problem: ECU & Ruffin McNeal.

 

[Timh]

BOL this week Hammer.

 

[HammersSpreads]

Thank ye Tim. You too my man

ULL Ragin' Cajun's ML (+150) ----- Small Potatoes
I'll take Hudspeth at home where he's only lost 1 game each of the last 3 years.....& he's already lost one there this year lol. Still think there is a lot of value on ULL b/c of their poor showing early in the year. WR Jamal Robinson is out for the year now but he has played only 2 games really all year anyway. Defense should continue to improve, & offense should continue to hit their stride. Just think ULL is the top team (or maybe 2nd best team) in the Sun Belt and it's fantastic value for an early week play.

BOL tonight.

 

[HammersSpreads]

Va Tech ML (+140) ----- Small Potatoes


Saturday:
UNC (+7)
Should have a little write up later on when the rest of Saturday's plays. I really like Saturday's card a lot.

 

[HammersSpreads]

Saturday:

Ohio (+10)
Ohio ML (+300)
Looks like the number is starting to come down. Write up later

 

[HammersSpreads]

ML Parlay (+170):
South Bama, Missy St, Toledo, Stanford, Bama, Mich St, UCLA


Still figuring out how many units to throw on the rest of the games. I really like the card & will be on the following in some aspect:

UAB +27
Texas +10
UNC +7
Ohio +10
Akron -2
CMU -5
Texas Tech +23
ULM -2
South Carolina +19 ??
Wazzou +2 ??
Washington ML

 

[HUNT]

Gl bro. Like your picks

 

[HammersSpreads]

Been crazy busy this week and I'm short on time for write-ups so I'm sorry. I really really like this card this week, so that may mean it's fade material lol. Note that all the REG plays this week are around 2 units for most of them. And I may come back and add to them.

ULM Warhawks ML (-120) ----- MASTER
ULM may have the best defense in the sun belt and I think they can hold back Texas st offense. I cannot get over the fact that ULM is healthy now. The last 2-3 games they were playing with 10 "key" injuries and 6 of those were starters. All 6 starters are back this week. I'm getting both starting CB's and the starting MLB back on defense. Also 2 starting OL back including the LT who is a 4 yr starter AND the starting RB Donald. I believe ULM offense is much better with Donald back bc he should have success against a sub-par TSU defense which will give QB Pete Thomas success, bc he is pretty good if he can have a balanced attack. Basically I'm getting the better overall team at home, in a must win situation for both teams. I'll take the better overall team when healthy at home.

Ohio (+10) ----- REG
Ohio ML (+310)
I love what PJ Fleck is doing and I'm pissed I haven't made money off them this year, as they are nearly a whole year ahead of schedule in my eyes. But I'm getting Ohio who has maybe the best coach in the MAC conference going against a young coach and really young team coming off the biggest win in years against BGSU last week. Note, Ohio defense is pretty good, as they held Bowling Green in check just like WMU did last week. Ohio offense is pretty blah, but they do have QB's who can run and are mobile, which is something a young WMU defense hasn't seen all year. I also don't think WMU should be laying DD's to any team right now.

Texas (+10) ----- REG
Texas ML (+310)

North Carolina (+7) ----- REG
UNC ML (+230)

Texas Tech (+23)
TCU off 3 straight games of top 15 oppos and has WVU on deck. TCU defense can be had through the air, which fits into a desperate TT teams hands. I like this many points A LOT with an offense that can score. Note how ALL the value has been taken away from TCU and WMU in my opinion.

Akron (-2.5) ----- REG
Better team. Pohl is playing I'm sure. I love Milas for BSU and think he's the future, but this is the best D he has faced and Akron is top tier Mac this year I believe. Also think Akrons run game shows back up this week.

Central Michigan (-5.5) ----- REG
I have my worries about the coach firing in Buffalo. Don't know how the team will come out. Regardless, CMU defense is pretty good, although I'm not sold on the pass D. But the Chips are a top team in the conference that got caught in a bad spot last week (coming off a win against @NIU) and they should be back to reality here.

Note I'll prob be adding tomorrow. I really like UAB, but huge questions now as it looks QB Clements is out.....4 TD is still good value though. Also debating on Wash bc QB Miles looks to be out.

If anyone wants to chat or wants opinions then holler. I'll be around.

Be back later. GL fellas (and ladies)

 

[B.A.R.]

GL BUD

 

[s--k]

I like alot of what you like. Hope you sweep this week.

Did you drop SCar or waiting on line movement?

 

[HammersSpreads]

All Small Potatoes:

South Caro (+19.5)
Wazzou (+2.5)
Washington ML (+155)