TNF: 49ers
One team is still fighting, the other team has thrown its towel on the season. After trading away superstar Khalil Mack before the season, Oakland recently dealt away former first-round draft pick Amari Cooper. The Raiders seem more interested in collecting first-round draft picks than competing. Despite not being dogged by more than 5.5 points, they haven’t come close to winning any of their past three games. They lost by two touchdowns at home to Indianapolis, by 24 points to Seattle, and by 26 to the Chargers.
Oakland's last loss, at home to Indy, is really concerning. The Colts were a 2-5 team that hadn’t surrendered fewer than 30 points in a game since September. David Carr is not putting up the numbers that he used to, failing to reach 270 yards three times in a row. The rush attack ranks towards the bottom. The 49ers impressed in their last primetime performance when they nearly upset Green Bay on October 15. This is another bottom-10 pass defense that C.J. Beathard can succeed against. Matt Breida and Alfred Morris will also bounce back against Oakland’s awful defensive line.
SNF: Packers
At 3-3-1 and following a bitter defeat, the Packers really need a win. Aaron Rodgers will be at his best. He’s been hampered by injuries to his receiving corps, but his receivers are finally healthy. The most important connection is the one to Davante Adams, whom he’s targeted 30 times more than any other receiver. Even though the Patriots rank seventh in opposing passer rating, that ranking is superficial. They got shredded by the only legitimate passing attack that they faced when KC put up 40 points on them. Every other pass attack that they have faced ranks 14th or lower in passing yards per game. Green Bay ranks fifth in the category, one spot behind KC. With one exception, they haven’t had to face a top-level receiver since Week 1 because Hilton was injured when they faced the Colts and Parker was injured when they faced Miami. The exception came in Week 1, when Houston's DeAndre Hopkins caught eight of 11 targets despite a poor day from his quarterback.
Let Brady score as much as he wants against Green Bay’s inconsistent defense, Rodgers will keep up and make this a competitive game.
49ERS: Oakland seems to have given up on their season. They’ve been non-competitive for the past three weeks. The 49ers want to win. Beathard will have another strong primetime performance.
BEARS: Just don’t bet on Buffalo. Ever. The Bills have scored 11 points in the past two games, 37 in the past five games. They don’t have a quarterback or even an offense and they commit turnovers.
CHIEFS: One team (Chiefs) can score, the other (Browns) cannot. The Chiefs’ top-ranked offense will procure a lead, forcing Cleveland to pass. The Browns rank 27th in sack percentage allowed. KC has a strong pass rush.
JETS: Darnold has succeeded against the lower-ranked pass attacks that he’s faced. Miami ranks 24th in opposing passer rating. The Fins have been non-competitive in their last two games with Osweiler.
LIONS: The only teams that Minny has beaten by at least five points are the 49ers, Jets, and Cardinals. Detroit has a balanced attack led by Kerryon Johnson and many talented receivers. They’ll stay close.
REDSKINS: Matt Ryan isn’t the same on the road, where he’s had his worst games in terms of QB rating and yards and where the Falcons haven’t covered in two tries. Washington has won its last three home games.
PANTHERS: Fading the Bucs with career back-up Ryan Fitzpatrick starting for them. Carolina averages the second-most rush yards per game and will run over a mediocre run defense with injuries on the d-line.
RAVENS: Baltimore struggles to run, but will be able to pass against Pitt team that ranks 23rd in opposing QB rating. Baltimore’s vaunted, top-ranked defense, will bounce back in rivalry game at home.
TEXANS: I see both teams struggling to score—Denver against Houston’s top-ranked run defense and Houston against Denver’s high-quality secondary. In a tight, low-scoring game, i’ll take the points.
SEAHAWKS: Seattle’s defense is good again. It’s allowed fewer than 20 points in four of its last five games. If Gordon remains injured, L.A. will really struggle to score. Its run defense is vulnerable.
RAMS: The Saints are now favored. They're overrated at home, where they’re 2-4 L6 ATS and 1-2 ATS this year with the one cover coming in Brees’ record clinching night. The Rams will light them up.
PACKERS: I’ll take seven points with Rodgers all day. New England’s pass defense hasn’t passed a difficult test and Rodgers will give them one. Not enough separates these two teams to justify the spread.
TITANS: The Titans have one of the better run defenses and will improve with the health of its linebackers—first Woodyard and hopefully also Morgan and Compton. They’ll limit Zeke. Dallas won’t score enough.
One team is still fighting, the other team has thrown its towel on the season. After trading away superstar Khalil Mack before the season, Oakland recently dealt away former first-round draft pick Amari Cooper. The Raiders seem more interested in collecting first-round draft picks than competing. Despite not being dogged by more than 5.5 points, they haven’t come close to winning any of their past three games. They lost by two touchdowns at home to Indianapolis, by 24 points to Seattle, and by 26 to the Chargers.
Oakland's last loss, at home to Indy, is really concerning. The Colts were a 2-5 team that hadn’t surrendered fewer than 30 points in a game since September. David Carr is not putting up the numbers that he used to, failing to reach 270 yards three times in a row. The rush attack ranks towards the bottom. The 49ers impressed in their last primetime performance when they nearly upset Green Bay on October 15. This is another bottom-10 pass defense that C.J. Beathard can succeed against. Matt Breida and Alfred Morris will also bounce back against Oakland’s awful defensive line.
SNF: Packers
At 3-3-1 and following a bitter defeat, the Packers really need a win. Aaron Rodgers will be at his best. He’s been hampered by injuries to his receiving corps, but his receivers are finally healthy. The most important connection is the one to Davante Adams, whom he’s targeted 30 times more than any other receiver. Even though the Patriots rank seventh in opposing passer rating, that ranking is superficial. They got shredded by the only legitimate passing attack that they faced when KC put up 40 points on them. Every other pass attack that they have faced ranks 14th or lower in passing yards per game. Green Bay ranks fifth in the category, one spot behind KC. With one exception, they haven’t had to face a top-level receiver since Week 1 because Hilton was injured when they faced the Colts and Parker was injured when they faced Miami. The exception came in Week 1, when Houston's DeAndre Hopkins caught eight of 11 targets despite a poor day from his quarterback.
Let Brady score as much as he wants against Green Bay’s inconsistent defense, Rodgers will keep up and make this a competitive game.
49ERS: Oakland seems to have given up on their season. They’ve been non-competitive for the past three weeks. The 49ers want to win. Beathard will have another strong primetime performance.
BEARS: Just don’t bet on Buffalo. Ever. The Bills have scored 11 points in the past two games, 37 in the past five games. They don’t have a quarterback or even an offense and they commit turnovers.
CHIEFS: One team (Chiefs) can score, the other (Browns) cannot. The Chiefs’ top-ranked offense will procure a lead, forcing Cleveland to pass. The Browns rank 27th in sack percentage allowed. KC has a strong pass rush.
JETS: Darnold has succeeded against the lower-ranked pass attacks that he’s faced. Miami ranks 24th in opposing passer rating. The Fins have been non-competitive in their last two games with Osweiler.
LIONS: The only teams that Minny has beaten by at least five points are the 49ers, Jets, and Cardinals. Detroit has a balanced attack led by Kerryon Johnson and many talented receivers. They’ll stay close.
REDSKINS: Matt Ryan isn’t the same on the road, where he’s had his worst games in terms of QB rating and yards and where the Falcons haven’t covered in two tries. Washington has won its last three home games.
PANTHERS: Fading the Bucs with career back-up Ryan Fitzpatrick starting for them. Carolina averages the second-most rush yards per game and will run over a mediocre run defense with injuries on the d-line.
RAVENS: Baltimore struggles to run, but will be able to pass against Pitt team that ranks 23rd in opposing QB rating. Baltimore’s vaunted, top-ranked defense, will bounce back in rivalry game at home.
TEXANS: I see both teams struggling to score—Denver against Houston’s top-ranked run defense and Houston against Denver’s high-quality secondary. In a tight, low-scoring game, i’ll take the points.
SEAHAWKS: Seattle’s defense is good again. It’s allowed fewer than 20 points in four of its last five games. If Gordon remains injured, L.A. will really struggle to score. Its run defense is vulnerable.
RAMS: The Saints are now favored. They're overrated at home, where they’re 2-4 L6 ATS and 1-2 ATS this year with the one cover coming in Brees’ record clinching night. The Rams will light them up.
PACKERS: I’ll take seven points with Rodgers all day. New England’s pass defense hasn’t passed a difficult test and Rodgers will give them one. Not enough separates these two teams to justify the spread.
TITANS: The Titans have one of the better run defenses and will improve with the health of its linebackers—first Woodyard and hopefully also Morgan and Compton. They’ll limit Zeke. Dallas won’t score enough.
