Week 9 Discussion Thread

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

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San Fran as a DD digit favorite Halloween night in Arizona. I am all in on SF this year (and N.O.) but they are due for a slip up of sorts. We can call the Washington game that, I guess but I feel like a Thursday night game will be one they may struggle in a bit. I don't think they lose but this is not a game I am looking at laying a lot of points...

The BAR-TEEED Bowl goes in Oakland and may be the most exciting game of the day. The total is set appropriately in my opinion. I would lean Raiders here in a 31-27 type of game.

Man the Chargers sucks... Packers on a second straight game on road vs the AFC West... sure this will be a heavy 'public' side, no doubt.

Great SNF game as New England formerly starts their regular season. The Pats defense is very good, and this game should prove it.

The Boys n Giants on MNF. It is good to be able to see the Cowboys in a national TV game, we just do get this opportunities all that often.

Obviously, many more games on the slate...I'll let you experts take it from here...

Don't forget the trade deadline...we could have some more manana...
 
Until the coaching staffs & QB play prove otherwise it'll be a long time before I back Cleveland or Chicago. May be an auto-fade for the time being.

I don't see a line on Pitt/Indy yet on Bovada, probably waiting on health of Connor. But I saw a look-ahead line of Indy -1. That would be too good to be true. Pitt is not a good team and probably should have lost last night had the Phins not gone in tank mode after the early lead.
 
Zeke said:
Until the coaching staffs & QB play prove otherwise it'll be a long time before I back Cleveland or Chicago. May be an auto-fade for the time being.

I don't see a line on Pitt/Indy yet on Bovada, probably waiting on health of Connor. But I saw a look-ahead line of Indy -1. That would be too good to be true. Pitt is not a good team and probably should have lost last night had the Phins not gone in tank mode after the early lead.
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I’m seeing Pitt -1.5 this morning
 
This has Lions loss all over it this week, which means they win....or tie. Carr has been outstanding and Ty TD Williams is back. Potential to approach 70 for total with how sorry these pass defenses are and lack of pass rush. Oak first home game in 6 weeks, what a joke. They played their asses off recently.
 
Couple ATS trends I just heard on VSIN, slightly obscure but the numbers don't lie. These were tweeted out by Marc Lawrence so if anyone follows him maybe they could confirm/correct.

GB 14-0 on second of B2B road games when against non-divisional opponent.

OAK 1-11-1 at home vs non-conference opponents.

There was also a trend either pro TEN or anti CAR for this week. The FTM guys rattle them off too quickly, tough to write shit down while I'm driving.
 
NFL London...Jacksonville 6 straight trip across the pond is 3-3 playing there.

Is this Houston'sfirst time there? The last international game for them was back in 2016 in Mexico City in which they lost to the Raiders 27-20.

Divisional game in London, I'd like to think it's "Business as usual" and routinely for Jaguars.
 
absolutely love the lions/raiders over 50.5. May be my favorite total of the year. Both teams will be passing all day. 28-23 wins this.

Also loving the ravens as one of my favorite sides of the season.

And as somebody who knows this eagles team very well, Chicago should not score more than 13 on sunday. Can the eagles score 20? If so they are the play
 
D-Woww said:
absolutely love the lions/raiders over 50.5. May be my favorite total of the year. Both teams will be passing all day. 28-23 wins this.

Also loving the ravens as one of my favorite sides of the season.

And as somebody who knows this eagles team very well, Chicago should not score more than 13 on sunday. Can the eagles score 20? If so they are the play
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Love that OVER too.
 
Lions/Raiders over 50.5-locked in

Ravens +3.5- locked in large

Philly -5 - about to lock in. I know this team. they should stifle the Bears. May tease instead

Browns -3....I get it they are a dumpster fire. But we get to bet on an NFL team against Brandon Allen. Gotta go with the squares here

Giants +7...divisional game. Giants are better than the Jets who beat Dallas at home. Lean.


Other leans/thoughts

Kind of want to take Zona tomorrow night. Divisional game, short rest, SF just wants to get in, get the W and get out...ti could be ugly. 23-16 type game

Jags -1 Sir Gardner Minshew > Sir Blake Bortles??? Still might just be a stay away

Buffalo -9.5...possibly tease with philly? Can't see Washington scoring much.

Indy -1 at STeelers...this is clearly gonna be a pros vs joes game but come on, can we really trust the steelers to win here? Indy is better coached and has the better QB. I may roll with the squares here

NYJ -3...Miami has made it clear they at least have a plan to tank. With Cincy on their heels, a win could crush their goals. Jets are just competent enough that they aren't trying to lose. Lean Jets
 
Gonna be harder than people think for Niners to cover that large number on the road in a shortened week.
 
SF on a short week and a possible look ahead game on Week 10 against their divisional rival Seahawks.
 
San Fran First Half sat at -4 for a couple days with the game at -10. The first half is up to -6.5 now. Anyone see this in the past? Rarely I see the half at exactly half of the game spread but can’t recall ever seeing the 1st half that low in comparison. Certainly has me baffled and a signal to avoid San Fran.
 
D-Woww said:
Lions/Raiders over 50.5-locked in

Ravens +3.5- locked in large

Philly -5 - about to lock in. I know this team. they should stifle the Bears. May tease instead

Browns -3....I get it they are a dumpster fire. But we get to bet on an NFL team against Brandon Allen. Gotta go with the squares here

Giants +7...divisional game. Giants are better than the Jets who beat Dallas at home. Lean.


Other leans/thoughts

Kind of want to take Zona tomorrow night. Divisional game, short rest, SF just wants to get in, get the W and get out...ti could be ugly. 23-16 type game

Jags -1 Sir Gardner Minshew > Sir Blake Bortles??? Still might just be a stay away

Buffalo -9.5...possibly tease with philly? Can't see Washington scoring much.

Indy -1 at STeelers...this is clearly gonna be a pros vs joes game but come on, can we really trust the steelers to win here? Indy is better coached and has the better QB. I may roll with the squares here

NYJ -3...Miami has made it clear they at least have a plan to tank. With Cincy on their heels, a win could crush their goals. Jets are just competent enough that they aren't trying to lose. Lean Jets
[/QUOTE

Agree on a lot here but Boys or nothing for me. Probably just tease. This Cowboy team in a completely different spot than Jets game both situationally and health wise.
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DeSean back? Opens up so much for offense when he is, specifically creating space for intermediate passing game (Ertz). Not sure why they wouldn’t wait until after bye to let him play and they may, but he has chance to greatly improve offense even if he’s not catching many balls.
 
detroit187 said:
DeSean back? Opens up so much for offense when he is, specifically creating space for intermediate passing game (Ertz). Not sure why they wouldn’t wait until after bye to let him play and they may, but he has chance to greatly improve offense even if he’s not catching many balls.
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most of philly agrees...if u cant beat the bears at home without desean u don't deserve to go to the playoffs, so let him sit out, take care of business and bring him back off the bye.

well see what they do though. this is what happens when you go into the season with a 32 yr old with injury history as your key player without even a decent other WR option on the team
 
Mack Hollins has played pretty much starter minutes and has not had a reception in October. That is unrealy.
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
San Fran First Half sat at -4 for a couple days with the game at -10. The first half is up to -6.5 now. Anyone see this in the past? Rarely I see the half at exactly half of the game spread but can’t recall ever seeing the 1st half that low in comparison. Certainly has me baffled and a signal to avoid San Fran.
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That's very odd.
 
spooks said:
NFL London...Jacksonville 6 straight trip across the pond is 3-3 playing there.

Is this Houston'sfirst time there? The last international game for them was back in 2016 in Mexico City in which they lost to the Raiders 27-20.

Divisional game in London, I'd like to think it's "Business as usual" and routinely for Jaguars.
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Keep on eye on the weather here. Forecast calls for rain and moderate winds.
 
I read the Texans planning to arrive in London on Friday. When will these teams learn??
 
@D-Woww so much talk about riding with the squares, if it quacks like a duck...

You sound pretty convinced about PHI and then want to tease it? Makes little sense to me if you're so confident and I wouldn't want to have to get another game right on top of it just to win a unit
 
not much for me on this card besides the opportunity to back Reich off a narrow win that probably deserved to be a loss combined with PIT on a short week with one of the worst starting QBs in the league. Not sure why PIT doesn't go to Hodges at this point, how exactly could it be worse
 
GWarner27 said:
@D-Woww so much talk about riding with the squares, if it quacks like a duck...

You sound pretty convinced about PHI and then want to tease it? Makes little sense to me if you're so confident and I wouldn't want to have to get another game right on top of it just to win a unit
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square plays win plenty. its important to look for sharp sides but you cant be so focused on being against the public that you go against what you know. I know Brandon Allen sucks. So I don't care how many ppl are on the Browns, I am gonna be on them. I am likely laying off the Indy game altogether

Philly just has such shitty WRs and with the Bears d being alright, I can see the game ending 20-17. Nothing wrong with teasing in the NFL. As long as you are following certain rules its proven to be profitable for some ppl. Plenty of games you can be very confident who is going to win but you may wanna cross a key number. In this case I may want to cross 3 with phlly
 
D-Woww said:
square plays win plenty. its important to look for sharp sides but you cant be so focused on being against the public that you go against what you know. I know Brandon Allen sucks. So I don't care how many ppl are on the Browns, I am gonna be on them. I am likely laying off the Indy game altogether

Philly just has such shitty WRs and with the Bears d being alright, I can see the game ending 20-17. Nothing wrong with teasing in the NFL. As long as you are following certain rules its proven to be profitable for some ppl. Plenty of games you can be very confident who is going to win but you may wanna cross a key number. In this case I may want to cross 3 with phlly
Click to expand...

i get the crossing key numbers and the NFL is routinely close enough where teasers win, but it just seems too difficult of a sport for you to need to win two wagers in order to get paid like you won one even with a guaranteed six points of CLV
 
GWarner27 said:
i get the crossing key numbers and the NFL is routinely close enough where teasers win, but it just seems too difficult of a sport for you to need to win two wagers in order to get paid like you won one even with a guaranteed six points of CLV
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Use to be I was incredibly confident I could pick out 2 teams a week that hit with those 6 points pretty regularly. Never had much luck when I started doing more than 1 per week but held a really strong hit rate last 3 years or so just doing 1. This year I’m so far off with pretty much everything I stopped trying after a few weeks. At the moment not sure 10 points could save me. Lol
 
GWarner27 said:
i get the crossing key numbers and the NFL is routinely close enough where teasers win, but it just seems too difficult of a sport for you to need to win two wagers in order to get paid like you won one even with a guaranteed six points of CLV
Click to expand...

cool bro. bet your way ill bet mine.
 
2daBank said:
Use to be I was incredibly confident I could pick out 2 teams a week that hit with those 6 points pretty regularly. Never had much luck when I started doing more than 1 per week but held a really strong hit rate last 3 years or so just doing 1. This year I’m so far off with pretty much everything I stopped trying after a few weeks. At the moment not sure 10 points could save me. Lol
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This. My teaser percentage is fucking horrific this year. I've been trying to bet numbers more than teams & making sure I get value with my teasers. Fucking train wreck. I should go back to teasing the square games like taking a -17 down to -11.

It usually takes me til about this time of year to say what I do every season...no college, no teasers, no parlays.
 
Zeke said:
Good to know, laying the 9.5. Surprised line didn't adjust at all.
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How does this game get to 36? 38-0 bills is the only way i can see that happeninng.

solid 3 team 10 pointer:

bills pk
Under 46
Literally any other side you like
 
I hope my people are wrong, but I would say it’s very very likely that Mahomes is out tomorrow despite anything you’ve heard. Thus if you’re in any contest pools where they use the Westgate lines, lots of Value on the Vikings

Edit: this has nothing to do with what Rapoport tweeted, but rather solid confirmation that unless he can miraculously sprint in warmups he is out
 
Last edited:
B.A.R. said:
Haskins starting vs Buffalo
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I don't think that's nearly enough to back the Bills here.

Perception is we have a rookie qb being fed to the wolves, and the Bills are going to bounce back off a poor showing. No way that D has another bad game...etc.

Look at the games played by both teams, the Skins have played 4 playoff teams (possibly 5). Last 2 losses by 10 & 9 to very good teams.

Reality may be that the Bills are a slightly above average team. The offense was inept down the stretch vs Philly with Allen going 0-11 to close out the game. The Oline (which surprised me to start the season) has definitely regressed. Feliciano is starting to look suspect to me and Cody Ford is questionable so that right side is sketchy. I keep waiting for Singletary to get more rushes but they are content to grind with Gore. If Allen gets contained to the pocket and gets pressured, he won't make the right read. He's gone 2 straight games without throwing an int which only tells me he's due- Norman might make him pay.

Don't even get me started on run defense. AP prop might be a solid one. Mclauren imo is a real talent, more tds than the Bills top 2 wr. They are thin at rb/te but even Smallwood is capable of getting off vs this run d right now. I see no reason to lay this kind of chalk right now with this team's current state. I'm probably gonna take the points here- wouldn't surprise me in the least to see this go right down to the wire.
 
I’m with you here Lex. Expect this game to be close and hope the bills pull it out at the end.
 
Looking for a McLaurin prop to play today, over catches and/or yards. Haskins will be looking for his O State guy in his first start.
 
Seattle is a surprising 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS at home this season. Both wins were by 1 point (vs LAR and Cincy).
 
Dalvin Cook Props

Quietly like Allen Robinson Props

Henry to beat Mcaffrey in rushing yards looks solid, it's practically even. (or play the props individually, henry over, mcaffrey under)

Detriot ML

Wilson Passing Yards Over

Denver + the points

looking into my last game now, leaning the under in the gbp/lac, but didnt lock it in yet
 
Not Much For Me Today. Maybe Changes In The Afternoon/Late Games. GL
Miami 1st Half +140
Miami +3 +106
Miami ML +165
Chicago ML +211
 
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