Week 9 Discussion Thread...

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Sorry, a little late to the party getting this up but they have been terrific the last several weeks...



Bills and Jets tonight... Lex has a great write-up for those who have yet to read it...

Eagles get the Broncos at home. It seems this team may be for real. Denver pulling a QB change off, correct?

Rams head east to Jersey to play the Giants. The Rams finally getting some line value laying 3 on the road off a bye. I am not sure why in totality, but not a fan of this spot and the Rams are one of my teams this season.

New Orleans tries to keep the re-found home advantage going playing the struggle bus Bucs. The Bucs have been a disappointing team this year so far. They just do not look good. So, knowing them, they will take this one to the wire.

Jacksonville, much like the Rams, finally garnering a correct spread...and it actually may be a bit inflated in this case...even though Cincy is a dumpster-fire... I'd have a tough time laying that number here...I think 4 is a more appropriate number.

Carolina and Atlanta in the battle of the last two Super Bowl Hangovers. Carolina looks lost offensively at times and brilliant at others. The trend is going in the bad direction lately though. Atlanta is turnover prone this year but escaped with a pretty big win at NY last week in some bad conditions. Betting-wise, I think this total is off 2.5-3.5 points. If these two cannot produce a 24-21 game at the worst I am not sure who can. Obviously I am expecting the Panther offense to do something here as well.

Houston is a major double-digit favorite at home to the hapless Colts. I am not sure why, but I can see a sluggish first half for the Texans here and a game they run away with in the 2nd...

Baltimore visits Tennessee. You couldn't get me to run farther from a game.

The Cards and Niners battle for the 2nd time with an OT affair already under their belts. Again,I will stay far far away from a match up like this. I would rather have Virginia Cavs as my wingman than watch this game.

Chiefs and Cowboys should be a lot of fun.

Oakland visits Miami on Sunday night. The Dolphins are tough to figure out. Oakland does the b2b east coast trip and really needs a win to stay in it. The inconsistent offense is an issue. Skittles back...lets see how he responds. This feels like a very competitive game right to the end...no more Jay for Miami...interesting trade although I get it the more I think about it...still..Oak -3 on road is tough to swallow...

Monday night, The Lions are favored at Lambeau. I have seen it all. Detroit needs this bad after last week. Strange things happen there though, I was all set to take Green Bay if Detroit beat Pittsburgh. Time will tell...
 
It's "Pro's vs Joe's" tonight. I'm seeing nearly 80% of spread picks on the Bills, yet there's reverse line action? The professionals are taking the home dog tonight. This feels just like the Chiefs/Raiders game from a couple of weeks ago. Jets must win tonight, or their season is essentially over.
 
Well so much for a Brissett/Hilton combo to play catch up Sunday. I have to change about 40 lineups
 
What number do you think the book should have given the Jets if they wanted to generate more public support for that side?
 
austinhous said:
What number do you think the book should have given the Jets if they wanted to generate more public support for that side?
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I feel it doesn't matter, because the line opened at -3.5 Bills, and roughly 70% of the ATS bets were placed on the Bills - yet the line moved the other way.
 
Philly/Seattle tease seems golden. Hell think I'm almost willing to lay the points w eagles and that never easy for me to do. I guess this could be a bad spot to be missing peters but ertz will shread donks like many a tight end before him has this season, no fly zone in general living off reputation this season not grading out nearly as strong against the pass. Philly front 7 will manhandle donks up front then what? Osweiler will lead the charge? Dfs defense numero uno anyone!!

Hawks addressing the oline solidifies them as one of best teams in NFC imo, don't see cousins and co having a pleasant trip to the northwest after legion got somewhat embarrassed last week.
 
Bungals/jags feels like a absolute slugfest. If commen opponents means anything (I know it rarely does in this week to week league) jags should roll seeing what they have done to steelers and Indy compared to bungals. I think jags run d has shown improvement from early in season plus just added darious and bungals having a miserable time establishing a rushing attack.

Dalton against this pass defense w no help from a run game? Almost feels like bortles might be more successful qb in this one. Can we really lay this kind of number with him tho? Both defenses been excellent in the red zone. If we can avoid pick 6s I think they have a pretty hard time surpassing this total. Lean under more than anything else.
 
I think a touchdown may be too many to give Washington with Seattle looking at the road game in Arizona on Thursday. The NFC West hits each other in the mouth pretty hard, and that's a quick turnaround. Seattle may be the team that fucks up everyone's square-ass teaser this week.
 
Washington is injured, but that's because they've been getting physical. I wish I knew more about the impact of all their injuries.
 
austinhous said:
I think a touchdown may be too many to give Washington with Seattle looking at the road game in Arizona on Thursday. The NFC West hits each other in the mouth pretty hard, and that's a quick turnaround. Seattle may be the team that fucks up everyone's square-ass teaser this week.
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You think they will actually lose? You could prob sell me on not covering but no way can I see a skins team with like 5 offensive lineman on injury report going to Seattle and winning.
 
Hakan's Picks said:
So Zeke is worth 3.5 points? Line was Dallas +1, but jumped to -2.5 this morning.
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I didn't think any position player outside qb got that much respect on line? I mean -1 either way pretty irrelevant so think fair to say some points more valuable than others. Maybe more like 1.5 of true value? I def think he worth more than the half point I always hear being talked about as the highest number any non qb worth.

I'm glad he playing for my season long fantasy and just in name of righteousness as I think it flat wrong a guy not charged w a crime can get treated like this. I have no clue if he beat the girl and if he did he a piece of shit but I'm certainly not gonna pass judgement as if I know and neither should goodell be allowed to. On another note it messes with what I thought were some great dfs lineups featuring dak,dez, and then another Dallas pass catcher (witten or Williams), ultimately I'm pretty selfish! Lol..

Far as game as ya can tell from above I think dak can shread this kc pass d. I was really eying the over without zeke as I didn't figure on boys being able to control the clock w rushing attack. I have a hard time thinking zeke hurts scoring tho, feels like a shootout that gonna take 30+ to win.
 
2daBank said:
I didn't think any position player outside qb got that much respect on line? I mean -1 either way pretty irrelevant so think fair to say some points more valuable than others. Maybe more like 1.5 of true value? I def think he worth more than the half point I always hear being talked about as the highest number any non qb worth.

I'm glad he playing for my season long fantasy and just in name of righteousness as I think it flat wrong a guy not charged w a crime can get treated like this. I have no clue if he beat the girl and if he did he a piece of shit but I'm certainly not gonna pass judgement as if I know and neither should goodell be allowed to. On another note it messes with what I thought were some great dfs lineups featuring dak,dez, and then another Dallas pass catcher (witten or Williams), ultimately I'm pretty selfish! Lol..

Far as game as ya can tell from above I think dak can shread this kc pass d. I was really eying the over without zeke as I didn't figure on boys being able to control the clock w rushing attack. I have a hard time thinking zeke hurts scoring tho, feels like a shootout that gonna take 30+ to win.
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Well said, and I couldn't agree more. The NFL previously botched domestic violence issues, so Zeke is suffering because of it. They're trying to show face, but they're over-reaching. How are they above the law? Nonsense!!

As for the game, I agree, now that the running game is solidified with Zeke, playaction will open up the passing game for Dak. The KC secondary has given up a lot of big plays this season. KC will load seven men in the box, they have to, and that means one on one coverage for DAL receivers all day. DAL D can't stop anyone, so this will be a barn-burner.
 
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Hakan's Picks said:
Well said, and I couldn't agree more. The NFL previously botched domestic violence issues, so Zeke is suffering because of it. They're trying to show face, but they're over-reaching. How are they above the law? Nonsense!!

As for the game, I agree, now that the running game is solidified with Zeke, playaction will open up the passing game for Dak. The KC secondary has given up a lot of big plays this season. KC will load seven men in the box, they have to, and that means one on one coverage for DAL receivers all day. DAL D can't stop anyone, so this will be a barn-burner.
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Should have jumped on over sooner, just noticed it has shot up to 53.5/54.. still think it over the play at anything less than 56.
 
tuck321 said:
Opinion on the total of Giants and Rams?
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Is Jenkins out? Think I heard somewhere he was suspended or something?

Really hard to find points for gmen, way to attack rams is rushing the ball and outside that strange game in Denver nyg been pretty terrible at that. You would think they still have to try, I don't think much of macadoo but can't imagine he dumb enough to just have Eli back there like a sitting duck throwing it 50x. Without benefit of special teams or turnovers to set them up can't see ny scoring more than 17 and that might be generous. Rams total little tougher for me to pin down, gun to head I think 24ish. Under or nothing for me.
 
aplous said:
Jenkins and Vernon out
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Man I don't see how rams lose this one unless gmen drastically change their approach? I'm down right allergic to road chalk but this really tempting. Gmen don't do the things offensively you need to have success vs rams.

Macadoo such a clown, their 1 win was only time darkwa got double digit carries all season! why not do that more often? Eli not capable of carrying a offense when he has healthy weapons and that obviously not the case. Yet they insistent on having him dropping back and being a sitting duck with all but 2 games having more than 35 pass attempts! They do that here and rams gonna curb stomp them. Unlike donks rams defend the tight end well so I don't even see that game script working even if he smart enough to pound rock then play action to engram!
 
So disgusted with the Bills I've avoided posting in this forum since thursday.

Buy low sell high


Redskins- Scary i know.... but..Seattle was lucky to get the win last week, once again It's confirmed the defense has been exposed. I really wish the O line wasn't so banged up for wash but Cousins will move around enough and I would expect quick outlets to Thompson. Crowder/Reed out paired with the oline means no total play for me but I think Doctson may have a breakout game. Skins totally lost control of the Dallas game but Seattle does not have the power run game to wear down the Skins defense. Norman could take this game over and it def helps to get Hall back in the secondary.

Bucs- NO playing above expectations and Bucs are doing what they always do.... Talking heads acting like the NO def is shored up- the lie detector test determined that's a lie! NO vs teams with a pulse on offense

@ MInny- healthy vikings scored 29

vs Patriots- 36 allowed, and the best the Pats offense looked all season hmmmm

vs Lions- 38 though it was a blowout the d was pitiful.

I will add Hundley put up 14 1sth .

TB has a stretch every season where they drop 4 in a row, then go on a run only to choke out late... Still thinking about whether I opt for TBor the Over-

last 3 TB totals otr

51 @ MIn
71 @Zona
57 @buffalo

Actually makes me nervous this total didn't open at 56.5....



NYG- I don't know if I can bring myself to bet it with Jenkins out, but Goff Chalk otr vs a defense that still has pride to play for no thank you. Watch Darkwa run for 2 tds and Evan Engram have 110 1td.
 
Looking at the Skins schedule they lost to Philly 2x, dallas and KC. Seattle is NOT on that level ml went from +290 to +310 so everyone must be out lol
 
also I've stepped in front of the Boys bus and I'm probably doing it again today. KC is a great teaser candidate.

Eagles- Must win for denver but I just don't see it. Don't give me that no fly zone shit Wentz will do enough and Brock will make his mistakes. Philly the one public play that gets paid, just want to confirm Ertz is def a go. Darby a gametime decision he would be nice to have.
 
If Washington with all their injuries can go into Seattle and win, I will pay to see that. Seattle at home is 7-1 or better 4 of the last 5 seasons. Doctson and Pryor have been non-factors at wide receiver, and they can't run the ball, so with Crowder and Reed out, you're basically relying on Ryan Grant and Vernon Reed to carry the team offensively.
 
With you guys on bucs, I grabbed them at +7 last night. I like what saints doing but agree there better football ahead for bucs, Winston actually practiced a little during week which he hasn't been doing since getting hurt. Since he been in a Tampa uniform no game between these 2 been decided by more than a td. I think this one comes down to wire.
 
askias said:
If Washington with all their injuries can go into Seattle and win, I will pay to see that. Seattle at home is 7-1 or better 4 of the last 5 seasons. Doctson and Pryor have been non-factors at wide receiver, and they can't run the ball, so with Crowder and Reed out, you're basically relying on Ryan Grant and Vernon Reed to carry the team offensively.
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Amen
 
Lexington 125 said:
also I've stepped in front of the Boys bus and I'm probably doing it again today. KC is a great teaser candidate.

Eagles- Must win for denver but I just don't see it. Don't give me that no fly zone shit Wentz will do enough and Brock will make his mistakes. Philly the one public play that gets paid, just want to confirm Ertz is def a go. Darby a gametime decision he would be nice to have.
Click to expand...

While I have no doubt kc teased to +8.5 cashes at a high clip, I just don't like teasing potential shootouts.

No fly zone living off rep. They no better than average against the pass this season. I'd be shocked if eagles didn't handle them pretty easily. Front 7 should dominate, I don't see oswieler beating them!!
 
askias said:
If Washington with all their injuries can go into Seattle and win, I will pay to see that. Seattle at home is 7-1 or better 4 of the last 5 seasons. Doctson and Pryor have been non-factors at wide receiver, and they can't run the ball, so with Crowder and Reed out, you're basically relying on Ryan Grant and Vernon Reed to carry the team offensively.
Click to expand...

Perception vs reality

Vernon davis has 6 catches of 20+ yards on the season.... Reed has 1. Vernon avg 44.6 ypg Reed 35. Crowder hasn't done much of anything (including special teams) and I think a healthy Doctson would beat him at the position easily.

And I don't see how you leave out Chris Thompson 31 of 40 targets brought in on the year. He is the main weapon right now but I'm just saying this Hawks d is NOT what it once was.
 
Watch the Hawks skunk them now lol



Anyone think the Jax line is utterly rediculous? Yes they are the better team but bortles-7?
 
i made jags -4/5 so yea I think it starting to get out of hand. Problem is I can easily seeing them busting bungals heads. Unlike dalton who has to carry his team bortles might not have to throw more than handful of passes. Cincy rushing attack uglier than even giants! Dalton dropping back 35+ times against this pass defense, man that could get ugly. Both teams d been great in red zone, could easily be fg fest I just don't like jags have a run game and cincy really doesn't..

I played under 39 so just hoping neither qb scores for wrong team.
 
Lex I feel like this really nice spot for hawks d to bounce back. You said yourself skins whole stinking offense little dump offs to rb, how hard is that to stop?? I been waiting for doctson to break out for weeks and every week another 1 catch showing, maybe now that I give up he will? Lol. At this point skins WRs simply have to show me. anything possible but I feel like Seattle wins this game 8-9 times out of 10 at home vs decimated team.
 
We've seen how physical Washington can get in that MNF game at Arrowhead where they sustained a lot of these injuries. Add to it that Seattle is looking at a division game on Thursday - an NFC West division game - a division that defines physical football. Gruden/Redskins haven't lost three in a row since 2014, so the situation is primed, but it's just those damn injuries.
 
might just hit the over in Seattle - that's a play the Redskins have cashed pretty well the L3 seasons
 
I throw out all the stats when teams go into Seattle. Yes this years hags doesn’t have the same pep in their step but I see them handling a really banged up skins team that before today’s game will have packed it in for the season.
 
Anyone know if walker gonna play for titans? Hoping he sits so I can use their rookie te in dfs, super cheap and ravens suck against defending tight ends!!
 
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