Week 9 CFB Plays

[Timh]

Sides and Totals 44-20-2, +33.58 units
ML 8-2, +10.26 units
Overall +43.84 units

Played a few so far this week.

Buffalo +36 -105 2.1/2 - This one qualifies as a hold your noser but my feeling here is that if BC is going to rest Ryan it will be in this game. Of course O'Brien fucked around with that injury last week first declaring Ryan out for FSU and then turning around and deciding to play him. With WF on deck I've got to figure BC is at least going to rest him for part of the game and then be content to work on their running game. Figure if Buffalo can put up 7-10 points that should be enough to cover.

Texas A&M/Baylor over 54 -105 2.1/2 - Baylor rush defense was garroted by Kansas for almost 300 yards last week and A&M should have success running the ball as they are racking up over 200 ypg on the ground. Bell continues to operate efficiently out of the spread for the Baylor offense and has thrown for 18 TD's and 290 ypg. He gets a crack at an A&M defense that allowed OKST to put up over 30 last week. I expect a high scoring game in this one.

BYU -8 -108 2.16/2 - I think Beck should carve up the AF secondary in this one and expect BYU to jump out early which will make it difficult for an AF team that looks to run first and has trouble coming from behind. BYU is third in the country in TO ratio at +10 and have made their opponents pay in short field situations. The switch from the 3-3-5 stack to the 3-4 defense has helped BYU improve immensely on defense so far and they figure to have a better chance in this defense vs. the option offense of AF.

Still have a number of other games I am looking at for the week. GL on the action :cheers:

 

[smo1a]

Can't argue your plays Timh. GL!

 

[TroyStacks]

bol should hit them all so far

 

[eames]

Tim Good luck with Your card Amigo.


:shake:

 

[B.A.R.]

Cannot agrue with that card whatsoever.

 

[redbearde]

on Aggie/Baylor over AND BYU.

GL to us, bro. Let's win some this week!

 

[jimmyd]

BYU, hmm, likin that and agree. GL.

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

Looks good Tim. Where's that MD ML at? haha gl

 

[Mags]

Like BYU and Buff, not sure about that total though....but what the hell do I know?

GL bro, I'm sure you'll have some more plays coming for the weekend. Anything tonight bro? Liking Clemson myself.

:drink:

 

[Aztec4Life]

Good luck this week Tim. I'll be joining you on that A&M/Baylor OVER shortly.

 

[Timh]

Thanks fellas, GL to everyone this week.

Notre Dame -13 -103 2.06/2 - I'm kind of disappointed to be making this play because before Hampton got hurt I really thought there would be some value in Navy plus the points. Now, I don't see how Navy overcomes his loss as he was really the key cog in making the option work for them. Enhada takes over the qb position this week and I've got to believe that Navy can be nowhere near as effective on the ground without Hampton. The effectiveness of play action to try and take advantage of a suspect ND secondary will be minimized if Navy can't run. I think Navy secondary will be in for a tough time trying to defend the ND WR's and passing game this week. If ND is able to get on top early it will be very tough for Navy to come from behind.

 

[Muletime]

Tim...Solid looking card. BYU will definitely be on mine as well. Your reasoning is flawless and I agree 100%. The rest of it looks like winners to me. Good luck!

 

[Timh]

MD +4 -110 2.2/2 and ML +154 1/1.54 - Copied over from an earlier discussion on this game.

I'll chime in on MD/FSU coming up this week. I went to the NCSU/MD game this past weekend and though MD played pretty well I came away a little disgruntled on how they finished the game. MD was completely in control of the game 23-6 midway through the 4th and give up a 65 yard punt return for a TD when they missed a couple of tackles and let Blackman break containment. The Terps answered after that with a nice drive but as usual Ralph got very conservative in the red zone (MD always goes run, run, pass) and ended up with a FG. I get very frustrated with them because they will not go play action in the red zone and more often than not end up settling for 3. What upset me after that though was Cosh went to the prevent and only rushed 3 guys and played zone behind and NCST went 70 yards or so in less than a minute for a TD to cut the score to 26-20. MD recovered the onside and ran out the clock, but it never should have been that close. On the bright side for MD the defense played very well in the 1H particularly and finally were able to get some pressure (4 sacks of Evans) and were successful with a couple of corner blitzes. Friedgen was content to run the ball most of the day (Hollenbach only 9 passing attempts on the day) and MD took advtg. of the two big NCST turnovers in the second half to stretch the lead out to 20-0 at that point. I think they will have to throw a lot more this week vs. FSU, as despite their injuries at LB. the Seminoles have still done a great job stopping the run this year (2.6 ypc). MD is still going through growing pains at WR but RF D. Heyward Bey has shown he can make some plays and has the speed to stretch the field out a little bit. I think some of Friedgen's conservative nature with the passing game is due to the WR inexperience as much as anything. Hollenbach given time is a decent QB but just doesn't have a lot of mobility. MD should get a boost out of the crowd this week, who will be well oiled by the 7:00 p.m. kickoff. I still have my concerns about MD defense vs. the run especially but think that this will be a closely contested game and I really feel like they have a shot to win this one considering all of FSU's problems this year.

FSU has significant injury problems this week to their LB corps and DL. WR I love sex will also miss. Weather tonight at MD will be very gusty 20-30 mph west winds on the tail end of the front that has passed through (rain most of Friday into Sat. morning). MD will need to get pressure on Weatherford tonight and hopefully can carry over some defensive momentum from last week (4 sacks of NCST). Bolston has moved back to NT which helped their pass rush last week and they were successful on some corner blitzes with Wilson picking up a couple of sacks. I'm hoping for a little more imaginative play calling from the Fridge tonight. I think they need to throw on the early downs and use more play action. Should be a tight close game overall where TO's will likely play a key role.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Gl today, Tim.

 

[CollegeKingRex]

I like UNDER best in your Terp game...

Not against you on any of them so GL today and look forward talking to you next week before the BC.

 

[3xChamps]

looks good Timh best of luck.....:cheers:

 

[Timh]

Rex you may be right there, the wind is going to make it very tough to throw tonight. Saw they dropped that line down this morning. We've got a couple guys up here putting a little syndicate together for the BC. I'm heading down to Nagshead next wkend for a little fishing trip but will probably hook up with those guys on Thur night to go over the racing card. Look forward to chatting with you on those and I know Mike will have worked some stuff for the races that I'll pass on to you.

 

[Timh]

Adding....

Kent State -6.5 -108 2.16/2

 

[Timh]

Army ML +154 1/1.54