Week 9 Bases

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Well I won another week, 2 weeks in a row, Only 3 of 8 winning weeks so far, but at least I'm moving in right direction. Still digging out of huge hole I began the season with.

LAST WEEK
5/14 0-4 -4u
5/15 5-1 +2.38u
5/16 7-2 +5.638u
5/17 0-0 0
5/18 5-7 -1.1u
5/19 2-2 -0.883u
5/20 5-3 +2.533u
WEEK 24-19 +4.568u

Let's start week 9 right...not like the 0-4 last Monday
  • 951 San Diego Padres/Washington Nationals Over 7½ +100
  • 953 Atlanta Braves +118
  • 959 Colorado Rockies +166
  • 964 Chicago White Sox +106
ATL and COL have both won 6 or more of last 9 road games as dog and are again in same spot today. This situation has produced 18.6% ROI over last 14 months

View attachment 32533


Will be hot in DC again and overs cash 67% when over 70 degrees in APR-MAY https://goo.gl/qN2Emo

O's are a mess, esp on the road with a bad starters(do they have a good one?). Even vs bad teams less than 45% wins
View attachment 32532
 
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MON 2-2

small profit thx to playing dogs
  • 901 Atlanta Braves +114
  • 903 San Diego Padres/Washington Nationals Over 8 -120
  • 904 Washington Nationals -180
  • 910 Milwaukee Brewers -132 https://goo.gl/2YXkm7
  • 919 Baltimore Orioles -1½ +130 https://goo.gl/DoduWg
  • 919 Baltimore Orioles -124
  • 922 Minnesota Twins -151 https://goo.gl/L57esc
  • 923 Seattle Mariners +1½ -150
  • 923 Seattle Mariners +140
line < -166 and season > 2016 and 9 > month > 4 and streak > -1
SU: 205-72 (2.27, 74.0%) avg line: -209.6 / 190.6 on / against: +$5,947 / -$7,152 ROI: +10.2% / -25.8%


D and season > 2016 and tS(W@D, N=8) >= 6 and 4 < month < 9 and line < 150
SU: 41-39 (-0.11, 51.2%) avg line: 117.1 / -127.1 on / against: +$862 / -$1,277 ROI: +10.8% / -12.6%


AD and line >= 170 and tA(hits) / tA(at bats) <= .255 and league = NL and o:STDSERA <= 2.65 and season > 2013
SU: 25-104 (-2.08, 19.4%) avg line: 208.8 / -233.9 on / against: -$5,402 / +$4,830 ROI: -41.9% / +16.0%


A and p:WOW and STDSERA > 5.60
SU: 29-20 (1.24, 59.2%) avg line: 129.6 / -142.3 on / against: +$1,822 / -$2,170 ROI: +36.2% / -30.9%

RL: 26-7 (2.59, 78.8%) avg line: -157.2 / 143.1 on / against: +$1,543 / -$1,682 ROI: +29.0% / -48.1%

AD and tS(W@AD, N=9) >= 6 and season > 2016 and line < 180
SU: 87-80 (-0.05, 52.1%) avg line: 127.3 / -137.2 on / against: +$3,144 / -$4,015 ROI: +18.8% / -17.5%


Nats at home last 5+ years over the total when temp above 70 in APR-MAY
39-19-2 67.2% +17.6u ROI: +26.2%
 
Last edited:
adding
  • 911 Colorado Rockies +134
1711cbc1-30f3-45f8-bf1d-e6d4062203e4.png
 
TUE 6-7
6-3 with original selections and 0-4 with adds :/
  • 955 Atlanta Braves +118
  • 960 New York Mets -202
  • 961 Colorado Rockies +155
  • 964 Minnesota Twins -162
  • 971 Baltimore Orioles -126
  • 975 Kansas City Royals +172
Waiting for Nats total as I will again be on over. Also will like the chubs -1' when lined
View attachment 32554
 
wed 1-7 (̿▀̿ ̿Ĺ̯̿̿▀̿ ̿)̄
  • 903 New York Mets +142
  • 905 Los Angeles Angels -107
  • 912 Cleveland Indians +1½ -145
  • 912 Cleveland Indians +119
  • 914 Tampa Bay Rays +124
 
Let me be clear. I did not bet Houston today because that Ump likes home dogs and Houston had screwed up Mortons' catcher but Houston is still one of the best road teams in baseball and was playing with major revenge. Why was Cleveland a big pick?
 
tuck321 said:
Let me be clear. I did not bet Houston today because that Ump likes home dogs and Houston had screwed up Mortons' catcher but Houston is still one of the best road teams in baseball and was playing with major revenge. Why was Cleveland a big pick?
Click to expand...

Nice call, as I ponder my notes from yesterday, I only find one relevant query and it pointed to the cubs. I'm sure I seen something or maybe I looked at it wrong since it was a fade play. Nonetheless, it was my only loser albeit 2 plays(see relevant query below as it's active for 2 more plays today

THURS 3-2 with both losses on the tribe

  • 959 Cincinnati Reds +176
  • 977 Atlanta Braves +173
  • 974 Seattle Mariners -176
  • 975 Toronto Blue Jays +116
  • 980 Oakland Athletics -131

away dog less than 180 that has won 7 of last 9 as an away dog for last 15 months(CIN and ATL) also leans under
AD and tS(W@AD, N=9) >= 6 and season > 2016 and line < 180
SU: 90-84 (-0.09, 51.7%) avg line: 127.8 / -137.7 on / against: +$3,102 / -$4,003 ROI: +17.8% / -16.8%

RL: 104-69 (1.40, 60.1%) avg line: -167.7 / 147.0 on / against: -$1,318 / -$91 ROI: -4.5% / -0.5%

OU: 70-95-8 (-0.30, 42.4%) avg total: 8.9 over / under: -$3,347 / +$1,875 ROI: -17.6% / +9.8%


Away dog with good starter(<3.10 ERA) vs better starter9,1.10 whip) from may-AUG last 5 years. This one has performed well this year and over time as a fade play and this pointed to Cubs yesterday...so my mistake ಠ_ಠ (today it's indication As and M's and also leans under
AD and line >= 120 and STDSERA < 3.1 and o:STDSWHIP <= 1.1 and month > 4 and month < 9 and season > 2013
SU: 41-111 (-1.42, 27.0%) avg line: 157.0 / -170.6 on / against: -$5,051 / +$4,580 ROI: -33.2% / +17.6%

RL: 84-68 (0.08, 55.3%) avg line: -149.2 / 135.7 on / against: -$1,752 / +$799 ROI: -7.7% / +5.2%

OU: 59-81-12 (0.39, 42.1%) avg total: 7.4 over / under: -$2,972 / +$1,775 ROI: -17.7% / +10.6%


home fave hot at home winning at least 7 of last 10 home games lith line 170 or less over 3+ years
HF and tS(W@H, N=9) > 6 and season > 2014 and line > -170
SU: 253-241 (0.03, 51.2%) avg line: -136.8 / 126.8 on / against: -$7,406 / +$5,000 ROI: -11.0% / +10.1%
 
I love the ROI and sample size, on the last query about Home fav's winning 7 of last 10 at home. I'm rying to understand the logic. Is it that they are being over valued because of the win streak? I just can't seem to think of another reason this query works so well when playing against the HF in that situation.
 
The Five Pack said:
I love the ROI and sample size, on the last query about Home fav's winning 7 of last 10 at home. I'm rying to understand the logic. Is it that they are being over valued because of the win streak? I just can't seem to think of another reason this query works so well when playing against the HF in that situation.
Click to expand...

The query was actually after winning 7 or more of last 9. I think more than anything it comes down to law of averages, you just can't maintain 80% winning even at home. They always favor home teams too much imo. Basically its saying you just cant keep winning, you will likely lose...plus they are overvalued..which helps the bottom line. The value on these streak type trends invariably falls to the dog as all teams will eventually finish 42-58% wins.

BTW, if you reduce that same query to line <= 130 the ROI is higher at 11.5% with still over 200 game sample size. https://goo.gl/yDc8Ye
 
adding one more fav
  • 978 Boston Red Sox -1½ +110
Big fav 180-225 at home with starter off win omitting SEP
225 < line < -180 and HF and season >= 2015 and month < 9 and s:W
SU: 211-76 (2.02, 73.5%) avg line: -200.5 / 183.1 on / against: +$5,952 / -$7,239 ROI: +10.3% / -25.2%

RL: 159-128 (0.52, 55.4%) avg line: 107.1 / -117.5 on / against: +$3,767 / -$6,005 ROI: +12.7% / -17.8%





Also Red Sox have covered the stick in 120 of their last 152 home wins for near 80%
LAD could fit here too if you stretch line a hair, but I'm not really comfortable with Dodgers yet...although I do be there is money to be made with them later on
 
@mrpickem ....how would I query teams that have better W/L records of losses <-2 runs when they are dogged? For example, last night Astros were dogs @ Indians. Astros record of losses <-2 runs is 0-6. Indians are 0-11. Stros were +130 dogs vs. Kluber last night.

So, to be clear what I am thinking about, is a query that gives some ATS records and profit/loss numbers of teams that were dogs but had significantly better records with this trend. In this game's case....what are the ATS records and profit/loss records 1) for dogs and 2) have lost >=5 fewer times by more than 2 runs???

http://www.killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&ou=1&rl=1&sdql=margin+<-2+and+team+and+season+=+2018&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
 
FRI - 5-3 •ᴗ•
  • 908 Chicago Cubs -191
  • 909 Cincinnati Reds +137
  • 912 Los Angeles Dodgers -193
  • 915 Chicago White Sox +125
  • 925 Atlanta Braves +117
  • 928 Philadelphia Phillies -177
  • 930 Oakland Athletics -148
  • 911 San Diego Padres/Los Angeles Dodgers Over 7 -110
  • 921 Houston Astros/Cleveland Indians Over 8 -110
Big fav 180-225 at home with starter off win omitting SEP = CUBS/LAD
225 < line < -180 and HF and season >= 2015 and month < 9 and s:W
SU: 213-76 (2.02, 73.7%) avg line: -200.5 / 183.1 on / against: +$5,952 / -$7,239 ROI: +10.6% / -25.2%
RL: 161-128 (0.52, 55.4%) avg line: 107.1 / -117.5 on / against: +$3,767 / -$6,005 ROI: +13.3% / -17.8%

big fav 170-250 with good starter (<1.1 whip) vs bad starter (> 5.6 era) over 4+ years omitting SEP = PHI
-250 < line < -170 and season >= 2014 and 9 > month > 4 and STDSWHIP < 1.1 and o:STDSERA > 5.6
SU: 47-15 (2.29, 75.8%) avg line: -201.3 / 183.4 on / against: +$1,803 / -$2,037 ROI: +14.4% / -32.9%
RL: 34-28 (0.79, 54.8%) avg line: -101.2 / -111.2 on / against: +$603 / -$954 ROI: +9.0% / -13.5%

Home fav less than 170 after winning at least 7 of last 10 at home with starter off loss over 2+ years = CHW
HF and tS(W@H, N=10) > 6 and season > 2015 and line > -170 and s:L
SU: 106-116 (-0.36, 47.7%) avg line: -134.1 / 124.1 on / against: -$4,741 / +$3,585 ROI: -15.9% / +16.1%
RL: 71-150 (-1.84, 32.1%) avg line: 154.8 / -171.5 on / against: -$4,085 / +$2,933 ROI: -18.5% / +7.7%

A's and Dodgers ~ https://goo.gl/vvTwfV
View attachment 32603

ATL and CIN ~ https://goo.gl/obSVWR
View attachment 32604

Both overs are temperature based..games in CLE & LAD
View attachment 32605
 
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SAT 6-4
  • 953 St. Louis Cardinals +102 https://goo.gl/ofv2Nc
  • 956 Milwaukee Brewers -115 https://goo.gl/LZTUaF
  • 969 Houston Astros/Cleveland Indians Over 8 -110
  • 972 Texas Rangers -1½ +125
  • 972 Texas Rangers -160
  • 976 Boston Red Sox -1½ -115
  • 976 Boston Red Sox -232
  • 975 Atlanta Braves/Boston Red Sox Under 7½ +100
All BOS plays off
-245 < line < -180 and HF and season >= 2012 and month < 9 and STDSWHIP < 1.15 and o:WP > 53

UFC this morning and I'm off to cap that now ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

Good luck gents

Edit: Here's one looked good for reds but I didn't feel it https://goo.gl/obSVWR
 
had to add based on ump and cole's RL record last 1.5 years

  • 969 Houston Astros -1½ +130
  • 969 Houston Astros -123
 
With you on both in the Astro game. Both pitchers do very well with this ump but Cole does better and Cole is on 4 days rest and the Indians have not seen him much while the Astros have learned to hit Bauer plus day game favors them and Sunday favors them
Not clear about Milwaukee
 
tuck321 said:
With you on both in the Astro game. Both pitchers do very well with this ump but Cole does better and Cole is on 4 days rest and the Indians have not seen him much while the Astros have learned to hit Bauer plus day game favors them and Sunday favors them
Not clear about Milwaukee
Click to expand...


I played Brewers based solely on Chacin, he's the most profitable starter bet over last 365 days.. 20-11 as avg +103 dog, and MIL has been hot..8-2 and avg over 5 rpg last 10

Well actually Parker Bridwell is the most profitable at 18-3 but he's on the shelf
 
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