Week 9 1-AA Discussion.......

hoopsstar22

hoopsstar22

Captain of Vanzack's yacht
23-6-1 .... YTD


5-0 Saturday.....
28-6-1 YTD.....


William & Mary +15 - W

The Citadel +13 - W

VMI +14 & +12.5 (double play) - W W

Rhode Island +25 - W

Recap Below


 
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We had an awesome discussion last week, and as a result, went 4-1. I applauded everyone that participated in last week's thread, so go back and check it, to receive your gratitude. Let's have another amazing week!

Lines are up for Thursday's games, with both teams laying road chalk.....

Wofford -18 @ Western Carolina - This one looks about right. WC doesn't defend the run very well. It will be interesting to see if Wofford can recover from last week's loss. I doubt there will be a play here.

Cornell -5.5 @ Princeton - Bull's advice is needed on this one. Haven't looked at this one much yet, but is Cornell worthy of laying points on the road after 3 straight home games?

I'll start looking into the rest of the week's matchups, but as always, the more game you guys point out, the more research I'll do.

Let's do this guys!

:cheers:
 
You're killing. Wish I would have got my 5Dimes account set up earlier. Good job this year and continued luck to you!
 
Lines are out.

Looks like a very tough week. Nothing seems to be sticking out.

Delaware +10 at Navy looks intriguing. Deleware has a pretty tough run D, and their well balanced O may be able to take advantage of Navy's non existent D.

I'm also looking into James Madison catching a point at home to Richmond. This is a battle of almost identical teams, which is why I think I would have to go with the home team.

William & Mary catching 17 at home, off a bye week, against UMass might be interesting. That passing O can certainly keep them in the game, and a back door wouldn't be out of the question.
 
cornell-princeton

hoop- sorry I talked you away from that Ga So game. Big win, and it surprised the shit out of me.
I haven't delved into this week just yet. Had house company for a few days.
Cornell looks better. Princeton was atrocious in the passing game at Harvard, and i think they had one or even two QBs knocked out. I'll check that. Home field not that big a deal in Ivy League except for Penn, who have artificial surface. Cornell does too but it doesn't seem to be as big a factor there.
Back later
bull
 
You didn't talk me away from anything bull. I played Ga Southern, and actually got it at +20, not that it mattered. I just watched the line go up and up, and I had to play it. Appy's run D is atrociuos, and they're still public darlings. It was a good win.

I still haven't noticed much in the Ivy, so you'll have to go to work there.


Looks like I dropped the ball on JMU, as they're sitting at -4 now. As a matter of fact, are you bastards hitting all my leans!!??!!!! Every line has dropped.
 
hoopsstar22 said:
You didn't talk me away from anything bull. I played Ga Southern, and actually got it at +20, not that it mattered. I just watched the line go up and up, and I had to play it. Appy's run D is atrociuos, and they're still public darlings. It was a good win.

I still haven't noticed much in the Ivy, so you'll have to go to work there.


Looks like I dropped the ball on JMU, as they're sitting at -4 now. As a matter of fact, are you bastards hitting all my leans!!??!!!! Every line has dropped.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't think of doing that, Hoops.
Actually, I haven't even gotten the spreads yet. 5Dimes didn't post them until sometime on Thursday last week so I haven't bothered.
Princeton's first two QBs were hurt last week. I don't know their status for the Cornell game.
I assume that you signalled that out because it was TV and NOt because you saw Cornell as a strong play. If I'm wrong there, please tell me what you see about Cornell that makes you like them.
Home team has won last 4 in this series: Cornell by 7, Princeton by 3 in OT, Cornell by 1, Princeton by 22 - Cornell went 1-9 that year.
Cornell looks like they could end that home team trend this year but even then , they may not cover 5 ??
Uncertain QB situation makes this one too difficult for me to play.
And I do play a lot.
SOP (seat of pants) comments on the other games: Yale and Harvard will be favored by big points and justifiably so. Harvard seem to be improving once the second QB got a couple of games under his belt. The starter went down a couple of weeks ago.
Penn - Brown could be interesting, particularly where the game is in Providence. Brown has good O , I don't know what happened to it last week when they led 31-14 but stopped scoring. Penn were really screwed in that double OT loss to yale. Replays showed that Yale did NOT break the plane on their game winning TD and Penn completed a tying pass but officials ruled ineligible receiver downfield ?? WTF, play started on one yard line.
GL Talk later. Glad you played GS.
Some great games coming up in the Southern Conf this week.
 
I was unaware of the QB injuries for Princeton, but that mostly explains the line then. Thanks for all the input, but I don't think I'll be playing any Ivy games.

GL with all of your other plays this week.
 
Missouri State -27 115 57.50 to win 50.00 (max allowed unfortunately)

Locked this one in a few mins ago.

Will dig deeper into the card later, but wanted to post this in case the line goes up to 30 or something while I am gone. Be back around 10 tonight.
 
Yikes CB, I was leaning to the other side on that one. I'd just have a hard time laying that many points with the 4th worst D in the Country.
 
hoopsstar22 said:
Yikes CB, I was leaning to the other side on that one. I'd just have a hard time laying that many points with the 4th worst D in the Country.
Click to expand...

I hear what you are saying, but the key points for me are the fact that Missouri State has given up all those points to some pretty solid offenses like KSU (37th), YSU (46th), ISU (22nd), WIU (50th) and SIU (2nd).

Also, looking at points allowed vs common opponents, Missouri State gave up 41 and 45 to ISU and SIU while Indiana State gave up 69 and 72 to the same two opponents. In addition, Indiana State IMO is the only team that won't be able to take advantage of the Bears' sieve like defense, as Indiana State is 112th in total offense and scoring offense, netting only 12ppg on the season while giving up 46ppg.

I like my chances with the 30th ranked rushing offense going up against the 116th ranked rushing defense, as one thing that Missouri State can and will do is score points in bunches, while Indiana State just doesn't have the weapons to keep up with the Bears in this one.

Keep up the great work this week. I am going to have some fun with these plays, as I will only be posting them in your thread if that is cool, since they aren't really close to unit plays for me. Great job as I have said many times, you are a hidden goldmine on this site for sure!
 
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Excellent break down man. That's a strong argument for your side. And post all you want in this thread, that's what it's for.


I'm certainly not going to force anything this week. I think there are a few more games that aren't on the board, so I'll wait for them to come in, and then get down and dirty.
 
I really like Delaware. I wish I could have hit it at 10 when I saw it. It's at 9 right now, and I think it may go up a few more. Does anyone know the status on Navy's QB and that neck injury?
 
JACKSON STATE -9 57.50 to win 50.00 (Max allowed)
JACKSON STATE -10 57.50 to win 50.00 (Max allowed)

It really sucks have to wait for the line change just to put in another 50 bucks down on a play, but oh well, what can ya do,. as I expected this line to be between 12-14 to be honest.

I like the fact that APB is in a little turmoil since they are a 1-6 team that has lost 5 straight, plus they will be switching back to their original starting QB this week due to ineffectiveness of their backup, even though their starter is 0-4 on the season. On top of this, they also have to deal with the fact that their All SWAC DE is out with an injury and won't be back till early November. This will definitely hurt their defense which is actually their greatest asset, as it is ranked 33rd in the country.

Additionally, their OL has been weak to say the least as they are 109th in rushing and 115th in sacks allowed, so I expect the Jackson State defense, which is 10th in sacks, to put on a show for the homecoming crowd this Saturday. Jackson State is a solid team that is #1 in total defense and #2 in scoring offense in the SWAC, and they are also tied for 1st in the eastern half of the conference.

The last point is that I like what I hear from the player comments this week as this team has matured over last year's team, which also started out hot only to fizzle out losing 5 of 7. This year's team is 100% focused against taking care of business against APB as they have vowed not to fade like last year, so I expect a statement to be made by Jackson State on Saturday.
 
<table border="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="TSN5" align="center" width="10%">Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada</td><td class="TSN5" align="center" width="10%">QB</td><td class="TSN5" align="center" width="10%">10/22/2007</td><td class="TSN5" align="center" width="50%">is questionable for Saturday's game against Delaware</td><td class="TSN5" align="center" width="50%">Questionable</td><td class="TSN5" align="center" width="30%">
</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
This is from the local Annapolis paper today...

Navy quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada practiced yesterday and is expected to start against Delaware. Kaheaku-Enhada was injured by a helmet-to-helmet hit against Wake Forest and sat out the second half after experiencing spasms in his neck and numbness in his arms.
 
DELAWARE +9 57.50 to win 50.00 (max allowed)

There are a number of reasons why I like the Hens to win this one, but first and foremost it is because I actually think they have a shot to win SU, so even though I rarely play dogs, I like to do so when I think they have a legit shot for the SU win.

Delaware expects to have over 8000 of their fans in attendance for this "border war", and the crowd is gonna be crazy for both sides as they are expecting a sell out standing room only stadium which is going to be a great environment for both teams to play in front of.

The Blue Hens are no slouch by any means as they are #13 in 1-AA with a 6-1 record, and they have one of the top offenses in the country, which doesn't bode well for Navy's injury depleted secondary which may see a true frosh make his start at safety this weekend. Navy has had all sorts of issues on defense, and I expect them to be exposed once again as they have to lineup against a formidable Blue Hen offense that generates almost 40ppg. Couple that with the fact that Delaware has the 8th rated defense, only giving up 17 ppg and this one is about as even as you can get on a Saturday afternoon, so getting more than a TD is bonus in my book.

The other interesting fact is that Navy has Notre Dame on deck, and this is honestly probably the best opportunity in this series that the Middies have had to finally end the streak vs the Irish so they could get caught looking ahead in this one, as you know that team on the field wants to be the one that does what so many others couldn't and that is beat Notre Dame. The problem is, Delaware is no push over, so if Navy isn't careful, they will end up falling victim to the Blue Hen high powered offense in what will probably be a wild and crazy 45-40 type of game.
 
Recap of Plays (Each for Maximum Amount Allowed at Standard -115)

MISSOURI STATE -27 AND -29
JACKSON STATE -9 AND -10
DELAWARE +9 AND +8
 
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Good stuff from the Navy head coach yesterday...

We haven't played very well, without a doubt. We haven't done a good job," Green admitted. "It doesn't take a rocket science to realize we've given up too many yards and too many points. We're not pleased in any way with what we've done so far."
Injuries haven't made Green's job any easier as three starters - inside linebacker Clint Sovie along with defensive backs Jeff Deliz and Ketric Buffin - have been lost for the season. Other defenders have been hurt during games, causing the staff to constantly shuffle personnel.
Green said the situation is particularly acute in the secondary, which requires more stability than the other defensive units.
"You need to be able to run guys in and out at defensive line and linebacker. You need to have fresh guys in those positions," Green said. "In the secondary, you would like to have a set four or five. We haven't been able to do that this season, mainly due to injuries. You would like to be able to develop chemistry back there."
Navy is severely depleted at safety due to injuries sustained by Deliz, Buffin and Jessie Iwuji (ankle). Junior Kevin Snyder made his first career start against Wake Forest and it appears freshman Emmett Merchant may make his first career start this Saturday versus Delaware. Both Snyder and Merchant had played strictly on special teams prior to the spate of injuries.
"Emmett has been doing a good job on special teams so we're going to work him in there and see how he does," Green said.
Merchant would become the 21st different player to start on defense for Navy this season. Nose guard Nate Frazier, end Michael Walsh, inside linebacker Irv Spencer, outside linebacker Matt Wimsatt and cornerback Rashawn King are the only players to start every game in the same position.
No unit has been more unsettled than the secondary. There have been three different starters at rover, free safety and right cornerback while Green has given just about every defensive back on the roster an opportunity to play. Junior free safety Joey Taylor and freshman cornerback-safety Kevin Edwards saw their roles increase against Wake.
Navy missed more than 30 tackles against Pittsburgh and that key statistic only dropped to 26 versus Wake Forest. Green was displeased the Demon Deacons were 10 of 14 on third down conversions.
"The most disappointing thing about Saturday was the possession downs. We made plays on first and second down then couldn't stop them on third down," Green said.
"They whipped us on possession downs. We didn't make plays and they converted."
 
4 FCS plays for starters

I have just played 4 games at 5Dimes
Citadel + 13 @ Georgia So. - I'm surprised at double digits here. There must be a reason , but I think you can throw a blanket over 5 or 6 teams in this conf. so I pulled the trigger. I like the fact GS comes off a big win against Appy State.
Penn -2 @ Brown - I don't like betting on teams coming off overtime losses, particularly 2OTs ( in fact I am reticent to bet teams coming off multiple OT wins - See Fresno last week ) but Brown also had OT loss and Penn may be the second best team in the Ivy. Certainly they appear no worse than # 3.
Villanova -2 v Hofstra Villanova lost its last in multiple OT to POwerhouse UMass but had a bye week to recover. If they play anywhere near back to that game , they should beat a Hofstra team that was exposed 40-3 at home by New Hampshire last week.
Duquesne +8 1/2 @ Iona - Probably the weakest of my 4 choices, these two teams are playing for the championship in a conf that dissolves after this year. Both teams 5-2 with not much in the way of quality wins. I made give slight edge to Iona there, but not enough to offset what I view as a generous 8 1/2 points.
I'm considering a few others ( DElaware, Northern Arizona, Albany, Northeastern and Furman- no line yet on these last two) and will check in later.
I think the Missouri St points have gotten too rich for me
GL everyone.
 
Why did they take some games off the board? I've been looking for the JMU/Richmond line, and haven't seen it all morning. Also, I don't see the Citadel's line, which you are 100% right on Bull. They could very easily win that game SU, IMO. Infact, all your plays look good.
 
WOW..... I just read that North Dakota State, the #1 team in 1-AA, can't be in the playoffs until next year, because of the reclassification rules.

That has to suck.
 
First Play.....

William & Mary +15

Wish I would have hit it at 17, but I'm still liking the 15. On paper, UMass looks like an average team. Sure, they're ranked #4, but their just lulling through games. There's a huge question about the health for Mass' QB, so will they really be looking to blow out W&M, or just concentrating on getting out of there with the win? W&M certainly has the passing game to keep up with the Minutemen.

The only thing that bothers me, is that it will be raining for the game. However, it is homecoming, and their first game at home in nearly a month. The crowd will be up for this one, and there is a good chance for pulling an upset here. Also, the rain, combined with the QB questions, means Mass may try and slow things down and control the ball, on the road.
 
Finally 5Dimes put this one back up....

Citadel +13

Bull pretty much hit this one on the head. Ga Southern is coming off a HUGE win at Appalachian State, this could very well be letdown city here. Ga. Southern's D is very, very suspect, and with a mobile QB Like Duraun Lawson, this could spell trouble.

This also looks like a sandwich game for GaS. Wofford is on deck next week, and could very well be caught overlooking the Citadel tomorrow. This is just too many points to be laying in this situation.
 
I think lines are all up now, Hoops.
We or you moved the Citadel line. It was 11 1/2 when I looked.
I say you must have moved it becuse W & M is now getting 13 1/2.
Northeastern is 7 over Maine and I've lost some interest. Furman gets 10 from Appy and I'm thinking about that one.
GL
 
ADDED
SE MISSOURI STATE +21 115

I almost never play dogs, but if you give me 21 points against a team that is 1-7, only scores 24ppg, and has the #71 rushing defense, I will bite and take my shot.

Both of these teams are bad, so let's just get that out of the way, but SMS does have the #1 rushing attack in the OVC, and 21st best rushing attack overall, so that should help them in covering this spread, because 21 points is a lot to ask a 1-7 team to cover, especially when they are going up against a team that will burn the clock with a steady dose of running, running, and more running.

I know SMS got blown out by EKU by 27, but EKU is in a different class than TN Martin, as EKU is 6-2, while TN Martin's only win came over a 3-4 Samford team at home. A Samford team that is one of the 10 worst teams in the country against the run. Add all this to the fact that SMS has won 5 of the last 6 played in Tenn Martin's home stadium, and you have yourself a live dog in my opinion.
 
bull said:
I think lines are all up now, Hoops.
We or you moved the Citadel line. It was 11 1/2 when I looked.
I say you must have moved it becuse W & M is now getting 13 1/2.
Northeastern is 7 over Maine and I've lost some interest. Furman gets 10 from Appy and I'm thinking about that one.
GL
Click to expand...

Both did move right after I hit them. I was very fortunate that The Citadel came back on at +13 after you hit it. But it was so weird, because I never saw it all morning, even after I saw you post. That was wild. I still really like it at 11.5 though, because I think this game goes 1 way or the other. Either GaS creates a few turnovers, and blows them out by 24+, or the game goes down to the wire. I doubt we use many of the points we're getting, if we even use them at all.

As far as Furman, I think they'll get blown out. That team has yet to beat anyone decent. I still have no idea how they put up 51 against the Citadel, when they just bearly managed to get by a worthless Coastal team, which I'm still thinking about playing against, because that team is in shambles right now.

They showed the game on the news after last weekends OT loss to PC, and a bunch of the players were on the field crying. Coach Bennett yelled at them to get off the field, and quit acting like a bunch of babies, and take the loss like men.

There has been a torrential down pour here ALLLL Day, and I live about 2 miles from campus. The field should be straight soup for tomorrow's game, and I think those 14 points VMI is getting will come into play.
 
Adding.....

VMI +14 & +12.5 double play.....

It is absolutely pouring here, and has been pouring all day, I live 2 miles from campus. Its going to continue raining throughout the night, and into early tomorrow afternoon. It should turn off well before the game, but that field will be soggy as shit. Not to mention the piss poor tailgating rules, the Alumni Tailgate doesn't start till 4:30, for a 7pm game. I think the team has packed it in for the year, and Homecoming won't mean much to everyone.

Now, as for a quick analysis on VMI. They are bringing in the #4 rushing O in the nation, averaging 293ypg on the ground. My Chanticleers boast the #107 rushing D, allowing 227ypg. Yikes. Coastal realized last weekend that they blow, not being able to win after receiving 7 turnovers, so they're done. The offense couldn't get anything going on PC's orange cone D, so I doubt they do anything tomorrow.
 
Adding....

Rhode Island +25

The weather is calling for 100% rain from now, up through the game. Take a look at the radar, it's gonna rain. Santos was still nursing his shoulder last weekend, despite the huge win over Hofstra. I think they go with a conservative game plan today, just to get through it without out injuries.

Also, Rhode Island runs the option offense, which could create some problems for a pretty weak D. Look at UNH's 2 losses, they game against running teams, James Madison and Richmond, that put up 353 and 217 yards each on the ground.
 
GL today hoops.

For what its worth, I watched SE Mizzou play against Cincy earlier in the season, and came away impressed with the QB (Trevor Anderson?). He had solid instincts and could really run.
 
Dmoney- Victor Anderson and thanks for the heads up, but I think my plate is getting too full. I'm still not understanding the line, but I'll probably let things go. GL with all your plays today man.
 
Looks like I screwed up jumping early on the Blue Hens as that line is now up to +11.5, oh well, it happens.

Best of luck today guys!
 
5-0 Saturday.....
28-6-1 YTD.....

Another great weekend fellas, and thanks again for having another great discussion like we did last week. Congrats to you that were able to pull the trigger on Delaware today, and they beat up on the Midshipmen. I just couldn't do it, with the pending weather in Annapolis. Looks like we all had a pretty tight day! Look at all the winners everyone put in this thread!

William & Mary +15 - W 34-48.. Close one here. I really, really though W&M was going to pull off the upset, but UMass scored 28 in the 4th, to steal the win. Just glad to get the cover, but I think it was much closer than the total. W&M was in control most of the game.

The Citadel +13 - W 17-21.. As I said above, I didn't think we'd need many of the points we were catching. GaS threw up 15 unanswered points in the 4th to steal the SU win.

VMI +14 & +12.5 (double play) - W W 35-42.. VMI took a 28-21 lead into the 4th, but Coastal got a huge homecoming win, which was severly needed for the Coastal Community, in more ways that you could imagine. Yet failed to cover any number that was on the game.

Rhode Island +25 - W - 36-49.. Rhode Island had a 24-21 lead at the half, and kept it close throughout. As I said above, UNH has problems against the run, and URI managed to put up 430 yards on the ground. I had a good read on this game.

Let's do it again next week fellas!
 
Great run this year hoops, you are without a doubt one of the best value adds to the forum this year, so thank you for your contributions!


Carolinablue editorial...If anyone out there has not checked out hoops' thread week after week throughout the year, you are definitely missing something special. Definitely make sure you read hoops' thread next week, as he is on one of those magical runs most only dream of. With the great information and discussion he puts out there each week, everyone in this forum should be checking out the thread if for no other reason that to check out the insight and great contributions from a number of different guys that are contained throughout the thread. He definitely knows his stuff, so give him a read, it will definitely be worth your time!
 
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