Week 9️⃣

[mrpickem]

MONDAY
7/6.86 LIONS -7½ -102
5/4.85 LIONS u46½ -103

SEASON [96-92 +16.7u]
WEEK 8 [15-11-1 +17.94u]
LAST [2-0 +11.71u]

THURSDAY​

• 4/3.54 TITANS +3 -113
• 4/3.74 STEELERS u37 -107

randoms....

• TEN HAS WON 4 STRAIGHT VS PIT (3-1 ATS)
• 

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

THURSDAY
4/3.54 TITANS +3 -113
4/3.74 STEELERS u37 -107

SEASON [97-93 +16.44u]
WEEK 9 [1-1 -0.26u]
LAST [1-1 -0.26u]

SUNDAY

• 5/5.00 DOLPHINS +1½ +100
• 5/4.76 CHIEFS u51 -105

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• Tagovailoa is arguably the #1 QB in the league: 70.4% for 2,416 yards, 18 TD with only 7 ints. Hill / Waddle have 1,494 yards & 11 TDs combined. The Fish AVG 151.8 YPG. They lead the league in rush yards per run 5.66 and pass yards per att 8.81! Defensively they are pretty average allowing 25.5 points / 329.4 yards per game.
  Mahomes is no slouch: 68.8% / 2,258 yds / 15 TDs / 8 ints. Kelce / Rice have combined for 944 yds / 7 TDs. KC rushes for avg 105.1 YPG.(4.04 per run/ 7.09 per pass) Defensively, KC D has been pretty good allowing 16.1 / 287.8 while allowing 2nd best 5.34 yards per pass, they have allowed 5th worse 4.61 yards per run.
  I do believe MIA can exploit the KC run D while setting up Tua to find a very motivated Hill and outscore the Chiefs. The MIA D has played better lately and did get perennial allstar Ramsey back last week which is huge vs Mahomes.
  I like MIA to win this nuetral site early game today. Although it's tough to back an under with MIA involved, the total is set high and I can see MIA running a lot while controlling clock and winning something like 27-20

 

[mrpickem]

early afternoon

• 7/6.67 VIKINGS +4 -105
• 5/4.81 FALCONS u37½ -104
• 6/5.71 SEAHAWKS +6½ -105
• 4/9.52 SEAHAWKS +238
• 6/5.77 RAVENS u44 -104
• 4/3.81 BROWNS -13 -105
• 6/5.56 BROWNS u38½ -108
• 5/4.63 RAMS +3½ -108
• 6/5.08 BUCCANEERS +3 -118
• 6/5.83 SAINTS u41 -103

 

[BenchCoach]

I really like Miami this morning as well…gl sir

 

[mrpickem]

well, forgot to post afternoon plays these with Buff tonight

• 5/4.76 PANTHERS u44½ -105
• 5/4.76 GIANTS +1½ -105
• 5/4.81 RAIDERS u37½ -104
• 6/5.71 COWBOYS +3 -105
• 5/4.76 COWBOYS o46½ -105
• 5/4.76 BILLS +2½ -105

 

[mrpickem]

under in night games when home favored by 6 or less and total 42-53 is 65% under last 7 years, 5-3 this year



and if you look at same scenario with only AFC teams, it's 75% unders

 

[mrpickem]

SUNDAY
5/5.00 DOLPHINS +1½ +100
5/4.76 CHIEFS u51 -105
7/6.67 VIKINGS +4 -105
5/4.81 FALCONS u37½ -104
6/5.71 SEAHAWKS +6½ -105
4/9.52 SEAHAWKS +238
6/5.77 RAVENS u44 -104
4/3.81 BROWNS -13 -105
6/5.56 BROWNS u38½ -108
5/4.63 RAMS +3½ -108
6/5.08 BUCCANEERS +3 -118
6/5.83 SAINTS u41 -103
5/4.76 PANTHERS u44½ -105
5/4.76 GIANTS +1½ -105
5/4.81 RAIDERS u37½ -104
6/5.71 COWBOYS +3 -105
5/4.76 COWBOYS o46½ -105
5/4.76 BILLS +2½ -105

SEASON [106-101 +21.42u]
WEEK 9 [10-9-1 +4.62u]
LAST [9-8-1 +4.98u]

MONDAY

• 4/3.33 JETS +3½ -120
• 1.29/2 JETS +155
• 7/6.54 JETS u40 -107
  

randoms....

• Wow, now I've seen it all after winning TB +3 yesterday when HOU kneeled on the extra point with 6 seconds left.
• Monday games with total <=46 cash to under 69.2% 45-20-2 L7 years
• W/HOME DOG <=7 AND TOTAL <53 ~ UNDERS NEARLY 70% 84-38-3 SINCE 2022
• PRIMETIME HOME DOGS <=7 POINTS ARE 41-29-6 58.6% LAST 10 YEARS
• Note: I mostly use a 7 year history, except when sample size less than 50 or major changes such as COVID, rules, etc..