Week 8...

horses

horses

Brady licks Marino's knob
First off, quick recap of week 7:

South Carolina -1’ over Kentucky, WIN: Obviously, the SCary blocked FG for a TD was the key play in this game; the insertion of Garcia under center for Scary was another key factor and makes one wonder where this guys’ been; still, my team outgained the bad guys by 130 yards and we were -2 TO’s as well. Despite the fairly close call, I feel I was on the right side and deserved the outcome.

Rutgers +8 over Cincinnati, WIN: No TO’s in this game and FD’s were even at 15; Bearcats outgained Rutgers by about 80 yards and clearly had the field position advantage in this game with a superior punting game, which there were a lot of. Key to this cover were the offensive adjustments Rutgers made at HT; the passing game was very solid in the 3<SUP>rd</SUP> and they were able to get enough pts on the board for the cover. Pretty happy with this bet as I thought my team getting over a score was virtually equal to the favorite, even though Cincy penalties also helped with this cover.

Notre Dame +9 over North Carolina, WIN: Irish continue to be a cash cow; solid effort by the ‘Heels, though they made some mistakes to keep the Irish in it. At the same time, even with a pick six, they couldn’t get to the number. Felt the Irish getting over a score was solid and I think it was. Think this bet was pretty solid.

Texas Tech -21 over Nebraska, LOSS: Not a shocking game plan by Nebraska, but I certainly was surprised by how well they were able to execute it. Hard to cover a 21 point spread when your offense runs under 50 plays. Clearly the wrong side and kudos to Pelini for getting his troops ready for their 1<SUP>st</SUP> road trip.

Bowling Green -1 over Akron, WIN: Don’t have satellite and this wasn’t on cable (that I could find) so I know very little about this game; appears I got fairly lucky with a big 4<SUP>th</SUP> quarter. BG outgained Akron by about 50 yards and BG was also -1 TO’s, so I feel a little bit validated, but all in all, this appears to be a fortunate win.

Georgia -12’ over Tennessee, LOSS: Everything that can drive me nuts about sports gambling manifested itself in this game; first off, I didn’t get the best line available due to both poor judgment and laziness on my part. A push would have been much more palatable then a loss here. That said, UGA covers this game 7 out 10 times in my opinion; two picks by Stafford deep in UT territory, one that was brought back to the UGA 40 that eventually resulted in a Vol TD. Basically a 14-pt swing. UGA outgained UT about 2:1 and had more FD’s almost 3:1. Not a Moose, but a tough one to take.

Utah St/San Jose St under 47’, WIN: Provided no write-up for this game, but suffice to say, I thought the Aggie offense would struggle mightily, and they did.

So far, I've played two games for week 8; both large chalk that are starting to juice against me. If I see anything during the week that warrants a play back the other way, I'm pretty sure a decent line will be available to me:

South Florida -23' over Syracuse
Nevada -19' over Utah St

Back with more later in the week; naturally, willing to answer any questions or concerns about the plays. As far as a write-up goes, I am betting two large favorites...I'm expecting beat-downs in both cases against two shitty teams on the road for the 2nd week in a row.

Good luck this week, everyone.
 
with grothe just going through the motions in a couple of games in the first half, i have a hard time laying 23 with sfla...doesn't their lack of production in the 1h concern you; and even though cuse has shown nothing defensively, don't you think they can change this trend in a bigtime divisional game? like nevada; disagree wth sfla, but wouldn't back cuse either....
 
On a scale of 1 to 10 how crazy am I going to be to take the Aztecs playing on the road against a team that loves to run the ball?
 
Thanks RJ; I'm jealous of your tix to the Missouri-UT game. Have a great time and see ya when you get back.

Hunt, thx man...best of luck to you this week.

JPicks, I would put it at an 8+; Lindley likely won't be available here and Air Force showed in the 2nd half last week that if you put a little pressure on b/u Westerling, he will fold. With their scheme, I would think NM would excel at that. You shouldn't be putting money on the Aztecs, esp w/ Lindley out...he at least gave them a 'puncher's chance'.

BroadwayJ, There's always concerns of course, but Groethe coming out flat seems like a big stretch considering how poor a game he had against Pitt on national TV. Seems like a competitor and I think he comes back strong; off the bye, they should be getting more plays from some key defensive players (Selvie of course being one of them) as well. Some Syracuse players wept after a tough loss vs WVA last week...

http://www.syracuse.com/orangefootball/index.ssf?/base/sports-1/1223801762204910.xml

Tough to follow that up with a trip to Tampa against a tough team off a loss.
 
In love with your nevada play and i lean to south florida a tad but falls in that area over 3 td where i dont like to lay it. Still i think you have that situation pegged right and a trip from upstate new york down to florida is one of the toughest in that whole conference.
 
Cuse has burnt me twice against Pittsburgh and West Virginia. Looking back the Pitt game I should of saw Pitt isn't real explosive and plays down to their level of competition. West Virginia simply I should of looked at the Rutgers game and said if you can't beat Rutgers by double digits your not worth counting on.

Syracuse is better than Marshall, I know that. I actually think Syracuse could beat an NC State-less Russell Wilson, whom USF dominated. Might be a tie though.

----Let their be no mistake Cuse sucks although maybe better than I thought they were. Cuse has kept it relatively close their last two, and I think this is a perfect time for a blowout, they are due for one aren't they. USF two dimensional unlike WVU, more explosive than Pitt, great D, I want to take them.

Would have to think Cuse has USF's attention after their last two games of hanging in their and considering USF off loss an bye.

Leavitt
"Who would have thought Toledo would go in and beat Michigan, with Rich Rodriguez and all his infamous wisdom, whatever it is there," Leavitt said. "Who really would have thought that? My point is that you've got to be ready at any time to play. It doesn't matter if Michigan is putting in a new offense or not, you would think the talent level would be a little bit different. It showed Toledo played with so much heart and desire and all that. Teams are good everywhere. Look at how we struggled with FIU, look at us and Pittsburgh, they come down here, and you'd think everything would be in our favor, at night, and they outplayed us. You don't know. You have to play extremely well for 60 minutes of football, or you're liable to get beat. ... The days of one team that's going to completely dominate the Earth are probably gone."
 
VK, My two losses last week were my two (larger) favorites, so I am definitely leary about laying points...esp this time of year. I just think these set up nice. Of course, I thought T Tech and UGA set up nice as well, lol.

O-State, The 'Cuse nicked me against Pitt as well; 'Cuse has been a hard trying team of late and at least Dantley represents at least a threat under center. Their defense is still a sieve and I don't put to much into what happened in Morgantown last weekend...not so much that White was out...but rather, I don't really know what the hell Stewart is doing down there.

Thanks Azzie! Tell me...is this the absolute worst state that you've ever seen Aztec football? It is unwatchable.
 
horses said:
There's always concerns of course, but Groethe coming out flat seems like a big stretch considering how poor a game he had against Pitt on national TV. Seems like a competitor and I think he comes back strong;
Click to expand...

when he has the fire and the determination he's almost unstoppable, and every game i saw prior to this year he had that. i've seen four games this year, and for at least the first quarter into the second quarter of every one of those games, he just hasn't looked the same. really bizarre. in a couple of the games, he seemed to just snap out of it...the kansas game when his tight end yelled at him for missing a throw, he completely changed his demeanor imo. but at times, it looks like he could give two shits about playing football and his mind is somewhere else. maybe i'm misreading it and it is a stretch, but just an observation i took note of. it's a different team without his passion and determination to make big plays...
 
horses said:
Thanks Azzie! Tell me...is this the absolute worst state that you've ever seen Aztec football? It is unwatchable.
Click to expand...

Without question. It's just too painful to watch...and tough not to be extremely pessimistic. Feels hopeless, really.

violin
 
I agree on Grothe, he looks different this year. I think he's overrated I've seen him miss quite a few passes.
 
Thanks TimH...

Azzie, hopeless describes the situation perfectly.

BroadwayJ, tough for me to respond to that, as I feel that is pure speculation. I am not one to judge to quickly just on body language. I do agree with O-State when he says that he's missed some passes that he hasn't in the past, but he is still a solid QB in my opinion. He had good games against both Kansas and NC State; he had a poor game vs Pitt but Wannstedt was a DC in the NFL, so he knows how to game plan and Groethe had one of his worst days. I think he'll be motivated to erase that game from the memory banks.
 
yeah, it's definitely speculation horses, but just something to keep your eye on:

ucf he had 346 yards passing and three tds. all 3 tds were in the second half. in the first half he had just 8 of his 23 completions for just 114 yards and a pick. didn't necessarily play bad, but played much better in the second half.

kansas he had 114 yards passing and no tds in the 1st half...his big td run of 28 yards near the end of the half was the only big play he made and it was right after he missed his tight end who was wide open and cedric hill came back to the huddle bitching; after that he was great in the second half and finished the game with 338 and 2 td passes.

pitt as you mentioned he had a pretty bad game all around, but it was far worse in the 1st half. he was 5 for 13 for 36 yards and an interception in the first half. second half he at least ran and threw for a td...

fiu and nc state he played pretty consistently good throughout, but they were the vastly superior opponent in those two contests. part of this could just be leavitt keeping it closer to his chest in the first half, but i think his demeanor and mindset has a lot to do with the slow starts, at least in the games i've watched. gl with the play; if i make a usf play this year, i will likely wait until half to take a chance to get a couple more points of value (like we did in that pitt game even though it lost). i know what you're saying though... tough to say it translates into the rest of the year; but i use speculation as part of the way i wager whether that is wrong or not. always enjoy your thoughts though...keep up the good work
 
Thanks for all the input BroadwayJ; naturally, we all 'speculate' to some degree since we're gambling, so I get what you're sayin'. Needless to say, I am counting on a solid effort from Groethe this weekend. It's the worst defense in the conference and they're off a conference loss and a bye...I'm expecting a good effort from the entire team (not just Groethe) while I think the 'Cuse "gave at the office" last wknd in Morgantown.
 
E.T.G., My thoughts are that Groh is a decent coach whose squads usually improve as the year marches on; UNC hasn't won in Charlotesville since 1981 if I'm not mistaken. I don't blame you for giving the 'Hoos a look but all that being said, I am off this game as my initial inclination was to lay the points with the Tarheels; realize they lost a top WR/KR, but I was real impressed with the urgency the played in the 2nd half last week vs Notre Dame. I had ND +9 with an 8 pt HT lead, and UNC definitely made the cover a little scary in the 2nd half...if they bring that same urgency (and focus) to UVA, I fear they may outclass the 'Hoos.
 
horses said:
E.T.G., My thoughts are that Groh is a decent coach whose squads usually improve as the year marches on; UNC hasn't won in Charlotesville since 1981 if I'm not mistaken. I don't blame you for giving the 'Hoos a look but all that being said, I am off this game as my initial inclination was to lay the points with the Tarheels; realize they lost a top WR/KR, but I was real impressed with the urgency the played in the 2nd half last week vs Notre Dame. I had ND +9 with an 8 pt HT lead, and UNC definitely made the cover a little scary in the 2nd half...if they bring that same urgency (and focus) to UVA, I fear they may outclass the 'Hoos.
Click to expand...


I like what Groh has done with this team the last 2 weeks (granted, Maryland never got off the bus and ECU fell off) BUT they are very solid at home under Groh, and they've found some balance on offense. They imo will be able to run the ball on UNC and a successful run game can you take you a long way.. UNC should of outright lost that game but ND kept killing themselves ( 5turnovers-outgained by 150)... I'm not sure you can state how big the loss of Tate will be as this year continues. Hicks is a very good WR, but right now, he is all they got. Tate and Nicks complement each other because you can't key on either one or the other will beat you. Now, I double Tate and make someone else step up that is unproven and not as talented (Foster?) I think UVA is a dangerous dangerous team here for UNC and I think UVA gets the outright win and continues to stay hot. UVA was a team I was fine with fading to start the year and I still won't take them on the road but at home where they are known to play very good football, I think I have to bite, especially with a team laying points on the road without their best play maker and using their 2nd string QB.
 
South Florida definitely one of my early leans, horses.
I'm not a big point layer by any means, but I like this situiation for USF a lot. GL
 
ETG, I always like reading your thoughts; as usual, win or lose, your logic is stellar. UVA's efforts under Groh, home vice away, have to be factored in, esp in this particular rivalry. Good luck to you and congrats on finding a 'dog to play this week.

Bull, it is what it is; I have no set rules for what constitutes a play and I think the words 'never' and 'always' should be pretty much stricken from the english language (tongue in cheek, here). My two losses last week were my two larger favorites...so I guess tread lightly. Good luck this week and I look forward to seeing the BullSheet.

Hunt, Yeah, I will have my usual 6 or 7 plays along with a total or two; I generally play a game or two early in the week (usually favorites) and then round out my card fri afternoon/nite...unlike a number of successful guys around here, I'm not a big early bird and am rarely on my computer when the lines are released Sunday afternoon.

Like I said, I am definitely having trouble attracting 'dogs this week. The one other play that I will likely be on is Pitt.
 
adding a couple totals for the usual 1/2 unit each:

Miami (Fl)/Duke under 44'
Florida International/Troy under 45
 
ETG, definitely a strong lean to FAU in this game; however...I do not track W. Kentucky and know absolutely nothing about them...type of offense, who their coach is and how long he's been there...shit you should know if you're going to bet a gm involving them; i decided at the beginning of the yr i likely wouldn't bet a gm involving the hilltoppers...just waiting for them to join the sbc and have a full slate of games. Like I said...strong lean towards FAU based on what I can only assume is a talent edge...

i just had 2 tequila shots, hope that reads ok...

 
gotcha, i was leaning FAU then switched over to WKU and now I'm just not sure and likely avoiding what is likely a disaster for me. thanks
 
God, I hate betting on the Wannstache but I think you're right

RJ, This is Wannstedt's 38th lined gm since he's been at Pitt; he's 18-19 ATS; not very good and I know he's not that good of a coach, but it's not like his teams never cover games. Oh...and 3-5 ATS as an away favorite; again, not great but not dreadful with such a small sample size.

Thx Marlo...BOL this weekend.
 
Thanks Grind, BOL to you this weekend.

Adding:

Rice -2 over Southern Miss
Cal -2 (-115) over Arizona
Ohio St -3 (-115) over Michigan St

Good luck to everyone this weekend.
 
well i was way off about grothe in the 1st half...he's having about as efficient of a half a qb could possibly have, but i was right about the value. they're giving you 2h -10.5, which gives you -18.5 for the game...4.5 pts better than the opening line and 5.5 better than the closing line.

tempting, but i think i'm gonna lay off. hope you hit that fucker
 
Changed my mind on Rice takes alot to get a number off 3 just looking at it over and over doesnt seem attractive anymore . So Miss plays some defense unlike NTexas who is the worst defense in the country and SMU who isnt far behind . Plus SO Miss lost to them as 20 pt favs last year at home.

Staying away from Ok Stat and going und 65 .....BOL
 
Bull, right on...that's why i didn't know; i don't play there.

SN, I think that guy bob got it off the 3...not sure though.

Broadway, Thx for the wishes, helluva 2nd half.
 
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