WEEK 8

spottie2935

spottie2935

Read Lines, Not Books
MTSU +13.5

OHIO ST -5

MCH ST +24.5

MIAMI FL +2.5

FIU +5

WAS ST +19.5

HOU +22

TOLE +1

CSU +7

USC -5
 
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Ohio State Penn St.

KillerSports

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Penn St has covered 13 in a row since last seasons loss to Michigan. Show me one good team they played. Don’t say Iowa as they only have defense. In the Iowa game Iowa only had 4 first downs and less than 15 minutes of T.O.P.

Last season at HOME the Penn St line was +14(Penn St. failed to cover at home) This season AT Ohio St. it’s +5.
 
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Liberty and Mid Ten

Liberty previous opponent SU record

BGU 3-4
NMSU 4-3 against pathetic opponents
BUFF 2-5
FIU 3-4 against pathetic opponents
SHSU 0-6
JVLE St 5-2

MTSU isnt good but they are getting enough for me to like them. The problem even with lines>10 it still takes a lead to feel the bet is somewhat safe. I question this but Liberty I just dont trust them laying so many points.
 
Penn State since 2015: 57-33-4 63 % ATS since 2015. AWESOME!


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Filtering some results to get a better understand of their best past success.

here are their results from 2015 when playing ranked and non-ranked opponents.

40-20 ATS 66% when playing a non-ranked foe. 17-13 ATS against ranked teams.

KillerSports.com

killersports.com killersports.com

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
This shows how they do since 2015 in away games, within this its also showing ranked opponents and non-ranked opponents

18-5 ATS against non-ranked opponents in away games, and 20-3 SU
6-7 ATS when playing an Away game vs. a ranked team

KillerSports.com

killersports.com killersports.com



=-=-=--=-=-=-=-=-=--=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=--=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

Breaking down Penn States past game vs ranked opponents.

4 of the games they were getting +13 points of more 2-2 in those games. I will eliminate those contests as they are not relevant to this weeks line.

That leaves us with 4-5 ATS 3-6 SU in lines <=7

KillerSports.com

killersports.com killersports.com

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

Now i will eliminate non top 10 ranked foes. (Not many results here but I that means that they have not been elevated enough on a longer term basis to hang in there in this game. Sure they can elevate this game and make a new history for themselves but I choose for them to prove it to me.

KillerSports.com

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3 games 0-3 and only 1 cover (1-2 ATS) against a 6 ranked team.

=-=-=-=-=--=-=-=-=-=-=-

I forgot to mention that is all games vs ranked team on the road Penn State is 3-10 SU which includes 4 times they were favorites. and 1 loss SU laying -9.5

KillerSports.com

killersports.com killersports.com


=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

Lastly when Penn St is ranked and their foe is ranked when Penn State is away they are 2-8 SU and 5-5 ATS (2 of the covers were lines above +17 points)


KillerSports.com

killersports.com killersports.com


-==--=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=--==-=-=-

I dont know how this plays out on the field. I don't dig into the players talents on the field or offensive and defensive stats. All that stuff should be factored into these lines.

=-=-=-=-=--=-=-

I am not trying to convince anyone to play this game but this is my methodology and what works for me.


Best wishes on yours this week
 
Liberty is a good team not a team that can swallow all these points and their recent poor results laying so many points exposes them. They have had an outstanding season so far but according to this line it could and should end this week.

KillerSports.com

killersports.com killersports.com

before the above date they were on fire being elevated to FBS games and lines they dominated. Since this date, lines makers have taken all that away. (As shown).

MID TENN had an 8 win season last year. So far NONE of Liberty's foes have had 8 win season from last year.

4 times this season Mid Ten has been favored including 1 against Colorado State. In my opinion that elevates Mid Ten. They have not looked great but none the less the lines keep making them chalk. This game is completely reversed they are +14
for 2 reasons.

A) Middle Ten has a difficult time covering as favorite's 2-5-1 ATS and 5-3 SU. Some of their opponents are really bad as well.

B) Liberty's outstanding 5-1 ATS mark this season . All games they have been favorites and all game no losses.

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

Liberty's best opponent so far is JVLE St. with 5 win this season. Thats good.

On the other hand their opponents have been :

Sam Houston
Buffalo
Florida Int
New Mx St
Bowling green
JV St.
and only one line <-10 and they failed to cover.

=-=--=-=-=-=-==-=--==--=

The fact that Mid Tenn is getting more than +14 now
is not missing A QB
Mid Ten has been favored over CSU which is better than any of Liberty's foes this season and Liberty is 5-1 ATS

Elevates Liberty into a fade in this game for me

MTSU +14 or more for me
 
MTSU +13.5:biggestfan:

J'ville St +7.5:biggestfan:

UTEP +3 loss:angrymob:

FIU +5 :biggestfan:
Marsh +3.5:angrymob:loss

Both Thursday unders :

J.Mad U49.5 :biggestfan:

and Rice U 58.5:biggestfan:

under 53.5 friday night :angrymob:

=-=-=-=-=-=-=--=-==-=--=-==-=-


S.Carolina +7. :angrymob:

OHIO ST -5. :biggestfan:

B.Coll +4.5:biggestfan:

MCH ST +24.5 :angrymob:

Indy +5 :angrymob:

CSU +7:biggestfan:


WAS ST +19.5 :biggestfan:

HOU +22 :biggestfan:

TOLE +1 :biggestfan:

FSU -14.5 :biggestfan:

USC -5 :angrymob:


MIAMI FL +2.5 :biggestfan:

13-7 WEEK
 
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Hey Spottie,

Curious as to your read on the SMiss game vs USA as it is right on the borderline for me in terms of taking SMiss given that the line is now up to +19, so let me know if you have any analysis on that one you can share, thanks! Guess I should also mention that I am leaning Over as the better play vs the Dog, but always interested in solid thoughts and analysis.
 
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carolinablue said:
Hey Spottie,

Curious as to your read on the SMiss game vs USA as it is right on the borderline for me in terms of taking SMiss given that the line is now up to +19, so let me know if you have any analysis on that one you can share, thanks! Guess I should also mention that I am leaning Over as the better play vs the Dog, but always interested in solid thoughts and analysis.
Click to expand...
I didnt have time to look at this. I already like 2 dogs tonight so I didnt want to bet a 3rd. I might be missing an opportunity
 
FIU +5


Here is the data I am using

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com


Add to this SHSt. Has 0 wins. But they did play some quality teams. It’s not a lock or multi unit play but I mostly ride with dogs.
 
So I ran data on a Favorite with 0 wins not playing a Saturday game from week7+


KillerSports

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And within that data I’d the line is lower than -9

KillerSports.com

killersports.com killersports.com


FIU is bad but no win teams (even playing a tough schedule ) the lack of success can put them in a state of mind that’s not favorable. We will see if this is the case tonight
 
I am adding

UTEP +3

It’s another bad team laying points. NMX St has 4 covers in a row but has play a very weak schedule. Now laying points on the road?

NM St is 37-171 SU away. It’s not like UTEP is great but they should be able to break NMX st down at home. These weekday night home games are lights and TV for these kids.

Advantage home team’s, advantage dogs
 
If NMX st covers, and they should I will keep and eye next week. They play on only 5 days rest and on the road again @ Louisiana Tech. Tuesday night and could they be favored again? I doubt it
 
Br@ssknux said:
What are we measuring here Spottie?
Click to expand...
AFC away favorites and conference game. this team will be dogs in the next 3 games. it show weakness because 3 games as dogs is not a strong team not strong teams are weak favorites. this game has to be played between week 6 and week 10

and n-D and nn-D and nnn-D and 11>week>5 (n-D is this favorites next game, and nn-D is 2 weeks from now next game and so on)

ATS:75-121-5
 
ptcap12150 said:
Coastal Carolina -9 @Arkansas State
Texas -23 @ Houston

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
I like dogs for the most part and if i like a dog 99.99 % I wont lay over -14 points.

I most certainly like Houston but I cant find good support yet

Coastal Carolina is on my fade list as is App St and Lou Laf because all these teams were under the radar and over performing. now they are not performing as well and their lines of less valued. What goes up must come down. The only exceptions to these are the highly recruited teams like OSU, Alabama, Georgia and a currently a few others. James Madison is on my watch list for next season. Outstanding teams in non power conferences regress. As soon as they show weakness sell them.
 
Coastal Carolina has a heavy load when laying points


KillerSports

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The last meeting was CSTC -20 and CSTC covered nicely but this team is a lesser squad. I dont bet on ARK St. because they can be exposed but CSTC- 9 isnt interesting to me either. Trend is the dog here and thats what I lean
 
spottie2935 said:
I like dogs for the most part and if i like a dog 99.99 % I wont lay over -14 points.

I most certainly like Houston but I cant find good support yet

Coastal Carolina is on my fade list as is App St and Lou Laf because all these teams were under the radar and over performing. now they are not performing as well and their lines of less valued. What goes up must come down. The only exceptions to these are the highly recruited teams like OSU, Alabama, Georgia and a currently a few others. James Madison is on my watch list for next season. Outstanding teams in non power conferences regress. As soon as they show weakness sell them.
Click to expand...
Thanks. What makes you think Coastal is overperforming at 3-3? Just last weeks win as a dog?
 
if you think stats out weigh the data and CSTC can get it done go for it. Maybe the stats are more powerful than the data. All the data shows is CSTC is very challenged when laying points. The data shows strongly that when laying these points one has best to do their homework and trust that they can overcome laying points. The data against them is huge. I am not sold on Ark St either, I passed on this game.
 
Br@ssknux said:
What are we measuring here Spottie?
Click to expand...
when assuming future lines the current weeks matchup doesnt show on the list. This site I use doesnt have future lines set for College games.

Rutgers has Ohio St Iowa and Penn. St all on tap in the next 3 weeks after this game.

Rutgers is also very slack on the road winning games. I am not a fan of Indy most weeks but a lot of people respect Rutgers too much to go on the road and win a game when they fail a lot and have huge look ahead games on tap.

Some teams one must jump in and off when the conditions are as favorable and Rutgers might cover. But I found their conditions this week to be lofty.

Rutgers on the road : >>>>>

KillerSports

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over 175 road games and only 34 times as chalk

KillerSports.com

killersports.com killersports.com


Rutgers is also 0-6 last 6 roadies


lastly when laying <=-5 not good but the unders are very strong. That the money here under.

KillerSports.com

killersports.com killersports.com
 
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I screwed up on against JMAD I know better than to fade an undefeated team.

I also was right on for fading a winless SHSt team. Just why I mostly stay out of top 10 matchups.

I went against a few this week but they are also getting a lot of points and these teams are not scum teams. These dogs have some sort of offensive and defensive talent. I screwed up on Colorado against Oregon and CU is still showing lack of team balance.
 
I looked up some days on home dogs that don’t score a lot of points and I am assuming that will be the case tonight since Temple is not playing good ball this season. Also have an injured QB.


KillerSports

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AF and o-points < 31 and day = Friday and total<55 and line<-13 and line>-28


Game is on Friday and the favorite is away
The dog I am assuming scores 30 or less points tonight and if this is the case the data shows under should be fine. The total is lower than 55 and the favorite is less than-13 points so they should win by playing defense. They can’t allow a lot of points if they are going to cover 3 touchdowns.

I included a line factor of >-28 because those opponents are completely trash of FCS teams and this line is closer to -21 than over -28. When the team is that trashy the overs are 50/50 do there is a possibility it’s an over tight. I will chance that not being the case.


under 53.5
 
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