WEEK 8

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
WED 10/20

301 GEORGIA ST
7:30 p.m.
302 APPALACHIAN ST -9


THURS 10/21

307 VIRGINIA
7:30 p.m.
308 GEORGIA TECH -5

309 TROY
7:30 p.m.
310 SOUTH ALABAMA -2


FRI 10/22

311 TULSA -9
7:30 p.m.
312 TEMPLE

313 UAB
8:00 p.m. P
314 WKU

PRINCETON -1'
6:00 P.M.
HARVARD

LONG ISLAND -2'
6:00 P.M.
WAGNER


SAT 10/22

317 KANSAS ST
12:00 p.m.
318 TCU -1'
$ KST off bye / 3-1/4-0 series

319 ULM
12:00 p.m.
320 ARMY -13

321 DUKE
12:00 p.m.
322 MIAMI, FL -12

323 TEXAS A&M -5
12:00 p.m.
324 SOUTH CAROLINA

325 INDIANA
12:00 p.m.
326 RUTGERS -2
* R won 38-3 LY

327 IOWA
12:00 p.m.
328 OHIO ST -28
* OSU > Penn St next

329 BOSTON COLLEGE
12:00 p.m.
330 WAKE FOREST -20

331 PITTSBURGH -1'
12:00 p.m.
332 LOUISVILLE
$ P 6-1 su/ats series

333 UCF -5
12:00 p.m.
334 EAST CAROLINA
$ EC 3-0 ats series (0-6 su)

335 BYU -6
12:00 p.m.
336 LIBERTY

337 HOUSTON -6'
12:00 p.m.
338 NAVY
$$ H off big W > bye

339 TOLEDO -8'
12:00 p.m.
340 BUFFALO

341 BOWLING GREEN
12:00 p.m.
342 CENTRAL MICHIGAN -8'

343 AKRON
12:00 p.m.
344 KENT ST -18'
$ K 9-0/6-3 MAC home

345 WESTERN MICHIGAN
12:00 p.m.
346 MIAMI, OH -6
$ M 13-0 / 11-2 MAC home

347 NORTHERN ILLINOIS -3
12:00 p.m.
348 OHIO
$$ Rocky's back

349 MARSHALL
12:00 p.m.
350 JAMES MADISON -12
$ Herd 13-2 road dog

351 GEORGIA SOUTHERN
12:00 p.m. P
352 OLD DOMINION
$ both off HUGE upset W's

353 SYRACUSE
12:00 p.m.
354 CLEMSON -16
$ C bye next

355 UTAH ST
2:00 p.m.
356 WYOMING -1

357 HAWAII
2:00 p.m.
358 COLORADO ST -6'

359 FRESNO ST -13
2:00 p.m.
360 NEW MEXICO
* F - assuming QB back ?

361 SAN JOSE ST -17
2:00 p.m.
362 NEW MEXICO ST

363 EASTERN MICHIGAN
2:00 p.m.
364 BALL ST -2

365 UNLV
2:30 p.m.
366 NOTRE DAME -24
$$$ UNLV QB ?

367 COLORADO
3:00 p.m.
368 OREGON ST -23
* OSU bye next

369 RICE
3:00 p.m.
370 LOUISIANA TECH -2

371 ARIZONA ST
3:00 p.m. P
372 STANFORD

373 WASHINGTON -8
3:00 p.m.
374 CALIFORNIA
$ must W for Cal - off 2L / Ducks, USC next

375 UCLA
3:00 p.m.
376 OREGON -5

377 NORTH TEXAS
3:30 p.m.
378 UTSA -12

379 TEXAS -2'
3:30 p.m.
380 OKLAHOMA ST
$$ Gundy 14-5 off loss / 5-2 su/ats series

381 MISSISSIPPI ST
3:30 p.m.
382 ALABAMA -18'
* both bye next
$ Saban 4-0 OL

383 MISSISSIPPI -1
3:30 p.m.
384 LSU
$ lSU 5-1 su/ats series

385 KANSAS
3:30 p.m.
386 BAYLOR -10

387 WEST VIRGINIA
3:30 p.m.
388 TEXAS TECH -4
$ TT off bye / 7-3 ats series

389 CINCINNATI -4
3:30 p.m.
390 SMU
$$ C off bye / SMU D off 101 play Navy

391 MEMPHIS
3:30 p.m.
392 TULANE -8'

393 VANDERBILT
3:30 p.m.
394 MISSOURI -14

395 SOUTHERN MISS -4
3:30 p.m.
396 TEXAS ST

397 NORTHWESTERN
3:30 p.m.
398 MARYLAND -20
$ NW off bye

399 FIU
3:30 p.m.
400 CHARLOTTE -10

401 PURDUE
3:30 p.m. P
402 WISCONSIN

405 FAU -3
4:00 p.m.
406 UTEP

407 BOISE ST
7:00 p.m.
408 AIR FORCE -2
* B off bye

409 MINNESOTA
7:30 p.m.
410 PENN ST -5
$ PSU off bad L / OSU next !!
home team 5-2/6-1

411 SAN DIEGO ST -8'
10:30 p.m.
412 NEVADA

413 ARKANSAS ST
3:30 p.m.
414 LOUISIANA -7




leans


BAYLOR
Kansas St
CINN
Ga Tech
N Illinois
Purdue
Air Force
Ariz St
CUSE 1H

Duke
Pitt
Toledo
Miami, O
HERD !!
Fresno
Texas Tech
Penn St?
Tulane
E Mich
Cal ?
NTX ??
 
QB

OUT

Kansas
Liberty still 3rd stringer

PROBABLY

Fresno

MAYBE or < 100%

UNLV
UTAH ST
TERPS
LOUISVILLE
ARIZ ST
Cinn
NC ST
NW
A&M
USF
Oreg St
ULL

CMU - RB Nichols out
OSU - WR JSN probable
 
reminder ...

These weeks (4-8 or so) are often the toughest to handicap - strong teams may take a break, and /or struggle to cover rising numbers - weaker teams improve, or take advantage of a weaker SOS/ inflated numbers - injured players return / some teams get beat up. This season is especially difficult IMO - way too many players AND coaches moving around - combined with QB injuries.
$$ try not to handicap these games as if players were ROBOTS - no team is 100% focused and gives 100% effort every single game - try to find 'SPOTS' where a team might be at their best (or worst) - ideally team A best / team B worst ......


64-57 so far

Houston -2' - Cougs off a nice / confidence building win - then a bye - strong on the road / tough vs the run / played well vs Navy .......... number should go UP
 
added

Kan St +5
Baylor -8'
Tulane -6
Cinn -3


smaller

N Illinois -1
Mia, O -5'
Fresno -12'





waiting/leans

Ga Tech
Army
A&M ??
Cal
TT
S Miss
 
BA, Looks like an outstanding week for ya Bud…and season for that matter. I took a step back after a couple of harsh weeks and landed at 9-6. Ha, imagine that, the less the work, sometimes hay still comes. Back to the grind though at 40-42, I’m really going to need some of your wisdom! Fwiw, I like K State’s spot/team vs a spent TCU. This is what K State does. Also agree on Baylor to get loose on that KU defense 2nd half. And WTH, Okie St getting 5 is the Tits imo. My favorite play of the week. But like I mentioned my Man BA, I’m just climbing out of some deep weeds @ 49% Season to Date.

THANKS For your early lines and especially those in game/2H Leans. You are appreciated!
Wolfeman howling

Taking an extra look, another one jumps off the page…I definitely think AFA smacks that weak Boise squad by more than 4!
8pm kick off at C Springs….good luck with that Broncos.

Keep hammering away, your insight on these difficult weeks is spot on!! Just got to stay the course with unit plays and get ready to bang the spots. Let’s goo.
 
ULM gonna get rolled vs the triple option? No way they can prepare in less than a week....

UCF rolls into ECU.....off great schedule with 10 days off before smu and 8 days off before a scrimmage vs temple....nine days to rest b4 ECU who just played 4 ots....only put up 20 vs ncst & navy...9 vs tulane.....Plumlee getting better....don't see the Pirates having success on either side of the ball.....

Thoughts?
 
Last edited:
I loved SMU heading into the week. With you on SMU and some of the value stripped away because of the dog excellence last week. This makes me timid. I think I pass on SMU. I guess its like folding a premium hand in Texas Holdem. Conserve for another opportunity.
 
spottie2935 said:
I loved SMU heading into the week. With you on SMU and some of the value stripped away because of the dog excellence last week. This makes me timid. I think I pass on SMU. I guess its like folding a premium hand in Texas Holdem. Conserve for another opportunity.
Click to expand...

PONIES are very confusing .......
>> I kinda like 'em every week - they look great 1H - and flat out stink in the 2H ..... every single game I believe. The problem here is that SMU is maybe too reliant on explosive plays - they struggle to move the chains / protect their D. If it's 3rd/5, they throw it 40 yds downfield ffs ..... Their run D should be better too. Cinn is not nearly as tough on D TY - but they should match up well vs SMU IMO.

BOL this week man ....... :shake:
 
Rusty Trombone said:
ULM gonna get rolled vs the triple option? No way they can prepare in less than a week....

UCF rolls into ECU.....off great schedule with 10 days off before smu and 8 days off before a scrimmage vs temple....nine days to rest b4 ECU who just played 4 ots....only put up 20 vs ncst & navy...9 vs tulane.....Plumlee getting better....don't see the Pirates having success on either side of the ball.....

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

ARMY ? - I kinda like 'em too - but WAY too many injuries ..... EVERYBODY that matters is hurt - 8 starters out last week - they may / may not be back
* both QB's / both 260 lb FB / stub SB / AA LB, etc. - this game IS a must win for a bowl, so I would *guess* they rested them last week ???

That total is at 56 or so - ULM QB has been great the last few games, the OVER maybe a great play - or tease Army with the over ? - they almost never lose at home / ULM never wins on the road.

UCF is definitely underrated for some reason - I kinda like 'em here, but have a poor read on both teams really, so I'll stay away

BOL this week ................:shake:
 
Wolfeman said:
BA, Looks like an outstanding week for ya Bud…and season for that matter. I took a step back after a couple of harsh weeks and landed at 9-6. Ha, imagine that, the less the work, sometimes hay still comes. Back to the grind though at 40-42, I’m really going to need some of your wisdom! Fwiw, I like K State’s spot/team vs a spent TCU. This is what K State does. Also agree on Baylor to get loose on that KU defense 2nd half. And WTH, Okie St getting 5 is the Tits imo. My favorite play of the week. But like I mentioned my Man BA, I’m just climbing out of some deep weeds @ 49% Season to Date.

THANKS For your early lines and especially those in game/2H Leans. You are appreciated!
Wolfeman howling

Taking an extra look, another one jumps off the page…I definitely think AFA smacks that weak Boise squad by more than 4!
8pm kick off at C Springs….good luck with that Broncos.

Keep hammering away, your insight on these difficult weeks is spot on!! Just got to stay the course with unit plays and get ready to bang the spots. Let’s goo.
Click to expand...

Good man Wolfe thanks .............:shake:

That Okie St will likely? hit 7 at some point - briefly ..... the issue seems to be oddsmakers (think) the QB is out - but nobody can dig anything up so far. A tall order for Texas for sure.
$$ STRONG technical stuff here - DOG has covered 5/row / OSU has won and covered 5/7 vs Horns / Gundy is 14-5 off a loss / When a dog of 6 points or less, Gundy is 9-1 SU / 10-0 ATS..

Love AF, but they've burned me too many times this year - Boise is tough to figure.

I'll be surprised if Kan St even loses to TCU - like that one.
 
bookieassassin said:
ARMY ? - I kinda like 'em too - but WAY too many injuries ..... EVERYBODY that matters is hurt - 8 starters out last week - they may / may not be back
* both QB's / both 260 lb FB / stub SB / AA LB, etc. - this game IS a must win for a bowl, so I would *guess* they rested them last week ???

That total is at 56 or so - ULM QB has been great the last few games, the OVER maybe a great play - or tease Army with the over ? - they almost never lose at home / ULM never wins on the road.

UCF is definitely underrated for some reason - I kinda like 'em here, but have a poor read on both teams really, so I'll stay away

BOL this week ................:shake:
Click to expand...
I definitely have that feeling. I look at these two teams, and I want to avoid them. There are too many unknowns to even guess the outcome of an event.
 
Forgot - Baylor QB sounds like he's OUT ..... definitely shoulda waited on that one. Like a chick or something, was in love with the Bears and my brain musta shut down ha
 
bookieassassin said:
PONIES are very confusing .......
>> I kinda like 'em every week - they look great 1H - and flat out stink in the 2H ..... every single game I believe. The problem here is that SMU is maybe too reliant on explosive plays - they struggle to move the chains / protect their D. If it's 3rd/5, they throw it 40 yds downfield ffs ..... Their run D should be better too. Cinn is not nearly as tough on D TY - but they should match up well vs SMU IMO.

BOL this week man ....... :shake:
Click to expand...
Thanks for the response and I know SMU has their problems. Since SMU has a long ATS losing streak this season I was looking for a better line than +3. Cincy has CFlorida on deck and I was thinking this could be a Cincy look look ahead game. Bottom line I wanted more than +3 more like +7 or more and it didnt happen. You expertise convinced me to fold here.

I will look to Syracuse because in past seasons this looks like a Clemson blow out, I think its closer to +13 and dog cover. If this happens I will fade Syracuse next week against Notre Dame. +13 look like a nice line to me here .
 
bookieassassin said:
adding smaller

Bama -12 1H
CUSE +7' 1H
Click to expand...
BA, get some rest Brotha! You living Hawaii time? Syracuse are feisty AF.
I missed your Appy St +2 live wagering. Looked like right place, right time! Mahalos plenty BA for your hard work, and even better that you share it kindly and with humor. I hope you get that elusive Rusty Trombone this season.
 
I see you lean GT @ -2.5….curious what your studies show on this one? Cavs are certainly not bringing much to the table outside of National game of the night TV hype.
Feeling like a 26-20 type of game to the Jackets. Would love to catch an in game line after a UVA TD at GT +2.5.

What the Boyz & i did before In Game Wagering was tabulate all the Stats for a second half Hammer. This Live Betting stuff (albeit juicy) sure makes it a lot easier than calling the Man on my Rotary-Landline to get 2nd half lines LMAO.

Knock the Book out this week Brotha.

If you get around to it, 2 games of interest/leans….LSU -2, UCLA +6?
 
Last edited:
spottie2935 said:
Thanks for the response and I know SMU has their problems. Since SMU has a long ATS losing streak this season I was looking for a better line than +3. Cincy has CFlorida on deck and I was thinking this could be a Cincy look look ahead game. Bottom line I wanted more than +3 more like +7 or more and it didnt happen. You expertise convinced me to fold here.

I will look to Syracuse because in past seasons this looks like a Clemson blow out, I think its closer to +13 and dog cover. If this happens I will fade Syracuse next week against Notre Dame. +13 look like a nice line to me here .
Click to expand...

More I look into this one .............. :pondering:

The more I question the Bearcats - I might put a little on SMU ML as a hedge. My regression to the mean / Big Picture style automatically steers me away from Cinn this year, off their best season ever. But watching the Ponies closely - they just seem to be the opposite of Cinn - soft, dumb, and weak finishers. The MUCH better coached team, coming off a bye - vs SMU (D) off a 101 play Navy dogfight......easy call right ? ha

Turnovers have killed SMU, but Cinn turns the ball over almost as much this year, playing a much weaker schedule (+12 LY). AND QB and a few other key players are ??
Sooooo, if you're feelin' SMU maybe play them ML - this year is crazy (2007 like), who TF knows what team shows up week to week - SMU might slide, OR run the table. Hell JMU should destroy Marshall - but I'll be on the Herd, yikes
 
satnightfever05 said:
Surprised to see you on WKU. This feels like a game UAB should win and line dropping seems to reflect that
Click to expand...

I'm a UAB homer for sure - but they seem to be fading a bit without the fantastic HC, especially on the road - note I've seen a buncha guys forget he's gone. WKU looks like the better team to me, slightly better than UAB in most every category, playing a tougher schedule. Could go either way for sure.
 
Wolfeman said:
I see you lean GT @ -2.5….curious what your studies show on this one? Cavs are certainly not bringing much to the table outside of National game of the night TV hype.
Feeling like a 26-20 type of game to the Jackets. Would love to catch an in game line after a UVA TD at GT +2.5.

What the Boyz & i did before In Game Wagering was tabulate all the Stats for a second half Hammer. This Live Betting stuff (albeit juicy) sure makes it a lot easier than calling the Man on my Rotary-Landline to get 2nd half lines LMAO.

Knock the Book out this week Brotha.

If you get around to it, 2 games of interest/leans….LSU -2, UCLA +6?
Click to expand...


ONCE AGAIN WTF ...... the team I like has QB problems ha

Not much here - Cavs stink and GT rejuvenated after firing their HC - beat Pitt on the road (Pitt couldn't run) and Duke

The weekday, short home favorite - before a fired up crowd always worth a look for me .....hate backing weekday road teams. But since QB Sims may/ may not play - it becomes a live/2H play only. He plays GT likely wins/covers.

UCLA / Ducks stay far away for me - Bruins could win or get killed - I would lean to UCLA at 7 tho.

LSU / Ole Miss - would have to lean LSU - Ole Miss has been disappointing every time I watch 'em.

BOL this week buddy - these games are fun, but tough to handicap - IF I had a brain in my pumpkin head, I would simply WAIT AND SEE WHO PLAYS - WHAT TEAM SHOWS UP - BET ONCE THE f'in GAME STARTS !
 
FORGOT - these teams that (seem) rejuvenated after firing their HC ...... seems like each one has won the week after (some as DD dogs) - may/may not continue to get better.

If the interim is in line to be the next HC - AND the players like him, a slide is not likely. BUT, if the interim guy and all the assistants know they will be gone - be careful.
 
adding smaller play

UTakEmPoints +3'

Miners not that bad really .....

Whipped Boise at home > beat CLT on the road > outgained La Tech away by 120 yds - but 4 TO's

Now off a bye, at least playing with a purpose it seems - FAU the stronger team but extremely shaky - as a ROAD FAV esp.- where the last 6 times in that spot they've lost 5 SU. Now off a life/death struggle with Rice at home, with UAB on deck. I'll play Miners ML as well.
 
bookieassassin said:
More I look into this one .............. :pondering:

The more I question the Bearcats - I might put a little on SMU ML as a hedge. My regression to the mean / Big Picture style automatically steers me away from Cinn this year, off their best season ever. But watching the Ponies closely - they just seem to be the opposite of Cinn - soft, dumb, and weak finishers. The MUCH better coached team, coming off a bye - vs SMU (D) off a 101 play Navy dogfight......easy call right ? ha

Turnovers have killed SMU, but Cinn turns the ball over almost as much this year, playing a much weaker schedule (+12 LY). AND QB and a few other key players are ??
Sooooo, if you're feelin' SMU maybe play them ML - this year is crazy (2007 like), who TF knows what team shows up week to week - SMU might slide, OR run the table. Hell JMU should destroy Marshall - but I'll be on the Herd, yikes
Click to expand...
Thak you for thinking of my question. I love your simple no nonsense thread :clapping2:
 
added

A&M -3
>> hate the Aggies, but this one has dropped too far - SC getting too much love off Kentucky W - MUST W for Jimbo

HERD +13
>> juiced a bit - they seem to 'play to the level of their opponent' - and have covered 13/15 as a road dog - JMU might suffer a 'burst bubble effect' off their first loss - I'm gonna make it a one unit play - but for sake of sanity, I really can't recommend it more than small, as HERD has looked turrible.....
 
bookieassassin said:
adding smaller play

UTakEmPoints +3'

Miners not that bad really .....

Whipped Boise at home > beat CLT on the road > outgained La Tech away by 120 yds - but 4 TO's

Now off a bye, at least playing with a purpose it seems - FAU the stronger team but extremely shaky - as a ROAD FAV esp.- where the last 6 times in that spot they've lost 5 SU. Now off a life/death struggle with Rice at home, with UAB on deck. I'll play Miners ML as well.
Click to expand...
It's like you are reading my mind.. grabbed the 4 yesterday.. UTEP coached talked about how important this game is in his presser earlier this week.. Miners will be focused
 
Hi BA,

Big fan of yours. Haven’t posted since before the Texas/TT game. I’m the guy who shared my “delayed letdown” theory and said the Horns figured to have a sub-optimal performance that day. Anyway, 2 things this week:

1. Wondering if you (or any of the knowledgeable folks who follow your great weekly thread) can shed light on the huge line move in the Akron/Kent St game? Was considering a play on Kent St, but I’m given pause by the consensus line plummeting from around -19 at open to -15.5 now, and I can’t find any injury news that would explain it, nor any huge betting consensus on Akron. What’s going on there?

2. Since I’m asking for something on Kent St/Akron, it’s only fair that I share something in return…I like Minnesota +5 and Marshall +12.5. Regarding the Gophers, I’m not concerned about Tanner Morgan’s status. Even if he doesn’t play, there are so many things to like (both generic and team-specific) about the profile of PJ Fleck’s team in this spot off back to back losses, the last as a road fave. And so many things to dislike (both generic and team-specific) about the profile of James Franklin’s team off a loss, especially their first of the season. Regarding the Thundering Herd, I won’t say too much because you’ve already recommended them — but I will point out that, in addition to the “bubble burst” effect for JMU, we have a really good “run stuffing dog” matchup here. Marshall’s stout rushing D *should* keep the Dukes from having the balanced attack that they usually enjoy.

Thanks, and best of luck on your plays, sir!
—TBB
 
Last edited:
Please take a look at the OVER 57 today for my HOME TOWN UNIVERSITY AT BUFFALO BULLS hosting TOLEDO.....

For what it's worth I guessed this total would be released around 62.5 , and my score chart has 64.69 ...

I've started off cold in the MAC ( only conference I bet anymore) 1-3 -8.4 units though so tread carefully ....

OVER 57 is a 3 unit play for me ..Wouldn't be suprised if they put up 70+

Best of luck today much respected Brother!!!
Sweep your slate $$$
 
Thanks boys, BOL today .......................... :shake:
>> I'll have week 9 (wtf) stuff up tonite late / Sun am


TBB - 85% $$ / 65% tickets on Akron I reckon - trending in the opposite direction ......... Flashes are fool's gold (got me a few times) - they might have 800 yds, but 24 points somehow. Akron should be able to move the ball enough to compete. I like Minny too - just exhausted with all this QB BS - plus both teams drive me crazy - I'll look to play Minny live/2H - BOL today buddy

D-UP - LOVE THE MAC! - agreed man that looks WAY too low - I'll look for a 2H / LIVE play on the over for sure (way I like to do it) - teams start slow, which often happens - you can get a better deal, plus it lets you check out the weather - see how QB's are handling conditions. BOL today buddy, thanks for stopping by.


Houston -2'
Kan St +5
Baylor -8'
Tulane -6
Cinn -3
Cal +7'
WKU -2 ......W
A&M -3
HERD +13


smaller

N Illinois -1
Mia, O -5'
E Mich +3
NW +14
App St +2' live ....W
Bama -12 1H
CUSE +7'1H
UTEP +3'


leans

PITT
TTech
Ariz St
AF
UCLA
Minny


ML

Kan St
E Mich
UTEP
Pitt
Cuse 1H
-------
Herd
SMU
 
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