Week 8

Capaholic

Capaholic

Proud Member of Chiefs Nation
28-18-2 60.4% +14.38u

Good week. Glad to be back at 60%. Hitting one now

LV/Cleveland under 54 (-117)
Carolina -2.5 (-108)
Baltimore -3.5 (-115)
Cincinnati +7 (-112)
Miami +3.5 (-114)
Kansas City -19.5 (-113)
Dallas +11 (-112)
Buffalo -4

LV- Light rain expected. 20-22 mph winds. Dangerous with two defenses that stink but that clock should be running a lot.
 
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Zeke said:
Although this doesn't apply to this game, point shaver on Twitter posted just recently - Raiders road divisional game unders are 14-0 the past 5 years. That's amazing!
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That is pretty wild. I didn’t know that. Good stuff!
 
Eric Antrobus said:
Love Carolina on Thursday.
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No secret that I am big into advanced stats. Big picture there is almost nothing that Atlanta does better than Carolina through 7 weeks, while playing an easier schedule (per FO). Deep dive, Atlanta's only mild advantage is their defensive line has done a good job at stuffing runs at the line of scrimmage while Carolina has been stuffed in the lower third of the league (ranked 26th). However Mike Davis is in the top 10 of receiving backs and I venture that Matt Rhule will use their RBs and other pass catchers. advantageously to tear up this defense.
 
Zeke said:
Although this doesn't apply to this game, point shaver on Twitter posted just recently - Raiders road divisional game unders are 14-0 the past 5 years. That's amazing!
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Why would he post that when this isn't a divisional game?
 
detroit187 said:
Seems he posted on Oct 11, before Chief game. Sheep followed, it went over, sheep slaughtered.
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Yeah fortunately I didn't see it on October 11. That guy does post some interesting trends that you'd have to dig deep to find though. @pointshaver13 is his handle.
 
Laying the wood with your team huh? I threw them in a 10 pt teaser. Just can't lay 3 scores. I like the Dolphins play, they are also in said teaser (LV & Dal the others).

Laying off Pats & maybe make a live play. They were so dead in the water last week that live betting SF was just stealing. They don't have the personnel this year to make big comebacks. If they get down it will likely only get worse.
 
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Zeke said:
Laying the wood with your team huh? I threw them in a 10 pt teaser. Just can't lay 3 scores. I like the Dolphins play, they are also in said teaser (LV & Dal the others).

Laying off Pats & maybe make a live play. They were so dead in the water last week that live betting SF was just stealing. They don't have the personnel this year to make big comebacks. If they get down it will likely only get worse.
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My only concern is that Reid tends to take the foot off the gas, but I think the backups would continue to score even if they were in. Let’s just hypothesize the Chiefs score 28 points which on a nice weather day is a low estimate. Is anyone confident they can get 10? The Chiefs pass defense (minus 1 game) is the tops in the league vs WR. Is Frank Gore going to score? I just don‘t know where the Jets points will come from, especially if KC gets any turnovers and turns them into points.

I am not high on Buffalo, but the Pats will need to run for about 250 yards tomorrow to stay in this. Which is possible, but I think they make Newton throw tomorrow
 
Capaholic said:
.

My only concern is that Reid tends to take the foot off the gas, but I think the backups would continue to score even if they were in. Let’s just hypothesize the Chiefs score 28 points which on a nice weather day is a low estimate. Is anyone confident they can get 10? The Chiefs pass defense (minus 1 game) is the tops in the league vs WR. Is Frank Gore going to score? I just don‘t know where the Jets points will come from, especially if KC gets any turnovers and turns them into points.

I am not high on Buffalo, but the Pats will need to run for about 250 yards tomorrow to stay in this. Which is possible, but I think they make Newton throw tomorrow
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Weather gonna be pretty brutal here tomorrow, not sure Cam or Josh will be throwing much, which should favor the Pats. Gusts up to 40 mph, sustained winds in the low 20s, temps in the low 40s and supposed to be lots of rain.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1321770697295826944
 
Tin&Lint said:
Spagnuolo does go prevent with a lead. Scares me on that one. That said, Bills outplayed the Jets by 30 last week.
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Chiefs wins have been pretty handy save one. That said, after the Raiders game there was a renewed focus On defense in practice and they showed it against Buffalo and Denver
 
No Edelman No Gilmore for the Pats. Total down to 40.5 with weather predictions. I understand how bad the Pats have looked but "the Bills are so much better this year they're finally gonna pound the Pats" just doesn't make sense to me. Realistically the Patriots need this game much more than the Bills do.

If Hyde doesn't go I think it's bigger than most realize. Without Hyde they won't be able to use Poyer to bring unexpected pressure, at least without opening up big play opportunities. That secondary outside White is suspect at best, no Norman either (at least he provided depth). Milano is still hurt and only played like 30% of snaps last week. Is the Patriots offense as bad as the Jets? No. The Bills can't stop the run.

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if New England comes out and runs all over the Bills. Look out if they start getting past the los because there will be big play potential. Maybe it's just my cynicism but I think the Patriots have the advantage in controlling the los when on offense. Hughes had a game last week but he's banged up and nobody has been able to consistently apply pressure to the qb or even win individual battles.


I have faded the Patriots last 3 weeks sucessfully but not today.
Patriots 11 turnovers last 3 games but the Bills are terrible at takeaways.
 
Damn meant for that to be in discussion thread, not your play thread so my apologies.


GL today, seeing things the same way this week (outside of the Bills wager, but I hope it cashes). Hope you crush
 
jedi ninja said:
Huge middle opportunity for you in Cleveland. The total sits at 47 now.
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Cleveland native/Browns season tix holder here (hold your laughter). I'm not the guy to follow in NFL, but as tempting as it is, I would not try to middle this one. Wind is up to 40 mph and it was sleeting earlier. I know a guy who's down at the stadium right now and he said this is the worst it's been pregame in years, with wind reminiscent of 8-0 game vs Bills in 2007 (snow/visibility not nearly as bad, but wind is and snow is supposed to start this afternoon). My two cents - great pull on under 54 and thanks as always for posting.
 
Capaholic said:
.

My only concern is that Reid tends to take the foot off the gas, but I think the backups would continue to score even if they were in. Let’s just hypothesize the Chiefs score 28 points which on a nice weather day is a low estimate. Is anyone confident they can get 10? The Chiefs pass defense (minus 1 game) is the tops in the league vs WR. Is Frank Gore going to score? I just don‘t know where the Jets points will come from, especially if KC gets any turnovers and turns them into points.

I am not high on Buffalo, but the Pats will need to run for about 250 yards tomorrow to stay in this. Which is possible, but I think they make Newton throw tomorrow
Click to expand...
Spot on.
 
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