Week 8 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Wow, week 8 already!. Last week was an abomination, a nightmare, a debacle. 6-12, which brought the overall number for the season to 44-51-4. Just not a lot of wisdom happening in this thread, at least as it relates to which games to pick. One of the dumbest things I did was look as hard as possible for a reason to fade Indiana, even though I have been totally sold on that team since early last year, and watched them do horrific things to my alma mater a few weeks earlier. These things they did were savage, even borderline sadistic, and convinced me to never, under any circumstances, go against the irresistible force that is Curt Cignetti. After only one uncashed ticket however, there I was, abandoning my long range plan. I deserved what I got. Never again.

Upon reflection, when I looked at the body of work from last week, I realized that three of the losses were without question the worst beats of the week. Auburn was an absolute joke for about a dozen reasons, the Cincy/UCF loss was comical and the VT game goes from a loss to a win with an correctly kicked extra point. ODU had a 5-0 turnover deficit, I should have been on the other side of Indiana if I just stayed true to my intentions, blah blah blah and here I am ready to take another shot at this. Hopefully all of you find logic in these write ups. After all, all you can do is try to apply logic and sense to each game/play and hope things work out. That's easer said that done however, because we all aren't good enough at just following the logic. I'm sure I'll violate that concept a couple paragraphs down!

I was very tempted to play Nebraska on Friday, but I still just do not trust them to get a win on the road for a second week in a row. They're ranked for the first time in awhile so it would be fitting that they would take a dump in their first opportunity after that. Having said that, Minnesota does not profile to be able to handle them. It's one of the biggest yards per play difference discrepancies on the board, and Minnesota will have all kinds of trouble getting anything done in the pass game against that Nebraska defense who has not given up anything to anybody through the air(look at Cincy's performance in that game and then since that game). Minnesota also can't run it, which is the only way to move it on Nebraska. As a result, a no play for me.

The other Friday game though....

1. Louisville +13.5 @ Miami(FL) (BR): You can buy this to 14 for about -117, I'd recommend that, but I'll use 13.5 here because everyone can get that right now. There's actually quite a lot to like about this Louisville defense. They lost to Virginia a couple weeks back but they held a Cavs offense that had been averaging 540 yards a game to only 237 yards, and only lost that game because Virginia had two defensive scores. Miami's offense has been pretty good but not great and they've struggled to run it pretty much all year. I think the Cardinals will be able to play well enough on defense to keep Miami within shouting distance. Offensively, Louisville hasn't been all that impressive, especially at the line of scrimmage. That's potentially terrifying considering that Miami defensive front, but I think part of Louisville's problem has been their inability to run, which has a lot to do with Isaac Brown not being 100%. The Cards are coming off a two week break and Brown does not appear on the injury report, so I think that will help them to be a bit more dynamic in the run game. Also, even though he's been under pressure a lot, Miller Moss is still putting up yardage numbers, and that's not surprising for a Jeff Brohm offense. He's in his element in this road dog role, and even at Louisville, they've had some very good performance as a road dog. Everything has gone perfect for Miami, and although they are also off a bye, I'm not sure they would have rather kept playing. They're due for a clunker and Cristobal showed some signs of idiocy last time out late against Florida State, which allowed the Noles to get within shouting distance in a game that they were completely outclassed and dominated. I like the Cards to surprise some people in this one.

Isaac Brown looked great, and Brohm's magic continued. 4 picks for Beck...definitely the clunker we were looking for. Outright win for the Cards changes everything in the ACC.
 
Last edited:
2. @Vanderbilt -2.5 v LSU(BOL) : When you look at this spread and see a minus sign before Vandy in a game against LSU, you immediately think, "Whoa, Vandy as a favorite here? Against LSU? Seems misguided." Maybe it is, but when I stack these two teams against each other, Vandy has been the better team even when adjusting for LSU's undoubtedly tougher schedule. Even last week, when they finally found a little bit of competence in the run game and on offense overall, LSU still couldn't do any better than 20 points at home against South Carolina. Defensively, the the Tigers have been mostly good, but this Vandy offense ranks 3rd in yards per play, 1st in the country in yards per rush and 2nd in converting third downs. They look on paper the way top 10 teams generally look, and the Dores have been great all year even when adjusting for schedule. The last time LSU went on the road, they played another high level offensive team(Ole Miss) and got torched. Vandy's offensive numbers are just as good as Ole Miss's if not better, and I think this Vandy defense has more than enough juice and is well enough coached to have a lot of success against this LSU offense.

Watched this whole game, and I thought Vandy was definitely the better team. A couple fluke plays really helped LSU stay in it. Wasn't much of a sweat for Vandy backers. LSU looked a little better running it with Durham being somewhat healthy, but Nussmeier was running for his life for a lot of the game, including on the 60+ yard TD to Thomas in which he had to pull a Houdini act just to get the pass off. If not for Cignetti, you could say Clark Lea(with his New Mexico State pals) has authored the most shocking turnaround of the past couple of decades.
 
Last edited:
3. @MIchigan -5 v Washington(BOL) : Washington was one of the few games I got right last week as Demond Williams absolutely torched the Rutgers defense(who hasn't?), but Washington was pretty fortunate to win and cover the game because Rutgers scored as few points as they could possibly score considering they piled up 493 yards. Rutgers missed a field goal, was stopped on downs at the Washington 6, was stopped on downs at the Washington 2 and threw an interception at the Washington 4. They had 5 different drives of 8 or more plays and 70 yards or more, so the Huskies never really stopped them. Now Washington travels east to play a Michigan team that just got humbled in LA by USC. You might say that Michigan's offense would be a step down, but the Wolverines are 13th in the country in yards per play and rank 4th in yards per carry in the run game. Justice Haynes was banged up last week so he's questionable, but Jordan Marshall is another capable backup, and Michigan is getting better at receiver as Andrew Marsh emerged last week with an 8 catch 138 yard performance. Washington is 0-5 ATS traveling east since joining the Big Ten, and they lost all 4 games big outright last year. This year they won at Maryland, but they didn't cover because they sleepwalked through the first 40 minutes of the game. This one is a noon start, so the situational and motivational edges are with Michigan. So is the fundamental edge in a lot of spots, as the Michigan defensive line is likely to get a lot of pressure on Williams as he's been sacked at a clip that ranks 128th in the country. If I had my druthers Sherrone Wright would be suspended for this one because the two best games Michigan has played all year were undoubtedly the 2 Biff Poggi was in charge of. I think Michigan bounces back in a good spot here.

It seems simple with Washington, but they can't be trusted on the road. Home Washington and Road Washington are two different animals. Had a good read on this one.
 
Last edited:
4. @Houston +1 v Arizona(BOL): These two teams are rather similar, solid defenses with somewhat mediocre offenses. For whatever reason, Arizona has been a popular team to bet on recently. I fell for it when they traveled to Ames a few weeks ago. Since then they've beaten the half eaten carcass of Oklahoma State and lost a heartbreaker in double OT to BYU, both at home. Now they go back on the road to Houston, and they're taking money in the process. I'm not sure I agree with that move. The Wildcats fell apart in their only road game so far, and they'll be up against a very competent defense this week with a pass offense that has not really gotten going all year, ranking 103rd in yards per pass attempt. Houston on the other hand has a capable passing offense(33rd) against a slightly better schedule, and is playing at home. Connor Weigmann was banged up a couple weeks ago, but he was fine last week in Stillwater(that carcass again) and should be good to go here. The Cougs are 5-1, still are alive in the grand scheme of things and should have a chip on their shoulder as a home dog against a conference also ran like Arizona. Oh, and one other thing: I'll take Willie Fritz over Brett Brennan every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

It took to the final gun, but Houston was in a good spot from about mid second quarter on. I was surprised Fifita had as much success as he did, but he cooled off as the game wore on.
 
Last edited:
I feel your pain last week, comical loss on Cin 4 and 15 (stop them on one play game over). PI to the 3 yd line fuck me. Then I had over in Indiana lose by a point, and over in Ala lose by a point when Simpson knee goes down before hand off that was scoring play. BOL this week Brass, things will turn for the better!
 
5. @Duke ML(-122) v Georgia Tech (BR): I'm pretty surprised that this hasn't moved over to Georgia Tech as the favorite. It still might, and I'm guessing this money line is going to be somewhere around the standard -110 later in the week. I'm citing what's out there now, and most spots have the line at -1.5. You will rarely see me go against Brent key when he's a dog, but this is not your garden variety dog situation. He's in his element when he has some room to maneuver in the line, figure the 7-10 range. GT is undefeated, and when you look at their schedule, other than this one, it's hard to peg any losses except maybe at Pitt in November and then their finale against Georgia in that stupid dome. I just don't see Tech as being a team that will be 10-0 or 11-0 at that point in the season. At the time of their wins at Colorado and against Clemson, those wins looked good, but the overall body of work hasn't been as impressive as we move further into the season. They were outgained by Wake, and probably should have lost that one, and really didn't distinguish themselves at all. Duke on the other hand, has been rounding into shape, culminating in a game last week at Cal 2 weeks ago in which they just blitzkrieged the Bears with an avalanche of points in the middle 8 of the game. They are 3-0 in conference and still have all their season goals in front of them. This is a huge game because they have their second off week in 3 weeks after this one after having come off a bye and the two toughest games left on their schedule are at Clemson and home vs Virginia. Tech has been gashed on the ground(110th in yards per rush against), most recently last week by Virginia Tech, and Duke if multiple on offense. Nate Sheppard and Anderson Castle have been menaces on the ground and Darian Mensah is averaging 9 yards per attempt with a 15/2 ratio after a slow start. Defensively, Duke matches up with GT pretty well due to their ability to pressure the line of scrimmage in Diaz's scheme. They have been very good against the run but have struggled against good passing attacks. If you're going to to struggle somewhere on D against Georgia Tech, you'd rather it not be against the run, which is haynes King's bread and butter. Ultimately, I like this matchup for the Blue Devils, both fundamentally and situationally. It should be a good one to watch as well. Hopefully, the turnover bug doesn't re-emerge for Manny Diaz and company.

This one got all the way to GT +3(+100) by kick, so I actually grabbed some of that to hedge. The 14 point swing on the goal line fumble/100 yard return TD was a crusher, but Duke righted the ship after that. Their main problem was that they could not tackle Haynes King. Had this line been +3 all week and it was clear GT would close as a bonafide dog, I would not have faded them. Mis read by me on that, although Duke's offense did not struggle to move the ball. This Barkate at WR for Duke is hard to stop.
 
Last edited:
Timh said:
I feel your pain last week, comical loss on Cin 4 and 15 (stop them on one play game over). PI to the 3 yd line fuck me. Then I had over in Indiana lose by a point, and over in Ala lose by a point when Simpson knee goes down before hand off that was scoring play. BOL this week Brass, things will turn for the better!
Click to expand...
Thanks Timmy. It was indeed a rough week. But on to the next!
 
6. @Louisiana Monroe +6 v Troy (BOL) : La-Mo was a darling of the betting public last week because they were on the road at Coastal, a team everyone has soured on, but as tends to happen in these lower level games, the shitty home dog rose up and played well and the Warhawks had to slink home. Now they have Troy coming in who many people have seen do well in some high profile spots. They had Clemson on the ropes a few weeks ago and then just won a couple games in a row outright as a dog. Now they are favored by 6 against a team that on paper looks better than them. Looking at their numbers, it's hard to see how they've had success. don't do anything particularly well, and their offensive line has been thrown around like a collective rag doll, ranking 124th in rushing per carry and 129th in sacks allowed. As usual, La Mo runs it well under coach Bryan Vincent's scheme, and as you'd expect as a Bill Clark disciple, his La Mo teams are well coached. Troy has fared well as a dog this year, but I don't like them as a 6 point favorite in this one. Any time you can get a home dog that is likely to run effectively, it's a great spot.

I need to stop with this charade that i can predict anything that happens in the Sun Belt. La Mo gave Troy 4 turnovers, one of them for a score. Even if you outgain your opponent, if you give them 4 turnovers and you don't get any, you lose 37-14.
 
Last edited:
7. Purdue +3 @Northwestern (BR) : I wanted to write this up as soon as I saw it, and I should have because now we lost the half point over 3 and it's still falling. Barry Odom found himself with a complete rebuild from scratch he had a couple guys back on offense (Mockabee and Browne) but the defense was a complete mess. As a result, they were a complete sieve on that side of the ball, especially against the pass. Coming into last week, they were dead last in virtually every passing metric imaginable. It's no wonder, however, when you consider that thee of the teams they played were USC, Notre Dame and Illinois, three of the top 10 pass offenses in terms of yards per attempt. Specifically in the Illinois game, they were lost, as Altmyer racked up 390 yards on 22 attempts. Barry Odom, however, is no dummy, and he knows how to coach defense. Last week, against Minnesota, their scheme started to take hold. The coverage was noticeably better and they had 12(!!) PBUs in that game in addition to holding Drake Lindsey to 5.15 yards per attempt. They held the Gophers to 262 yards overall, and outgained the Gophers by more than a yard per play...they were very unlucky in the game and deserved to win without a doubt. They also stymied the Gophers running attack, and for the season, they actually rank a very respectable 53rd against the run, considering they've played Sagarin's #16 schedule. Now they catch Northwestern, who has been favored in conference exactly once in the past three years off one of the biggest upset victories in their program's history. Northwestern obviously wants to run the ball, and that works into the Boilers hands as that's their strength and they've played much better rush offenses than the Cats. Also, this Purdue offense has been very competent. They are averaging 400 yards per game and Ryan Browne has topped 300 yards through the air 4 times this year. I think the spot really favors Purdue and I think they'll continue to make strides defensively as Odom ingratiates the defense into his guys and they become more comfortable in it. They're going to win a couple conference games this year, and this could be the first.
Purdue never got off the bus, and now it looks like Ryan Browne is injured. Cats ran it 47 times and Purdue, who had been good stopping the run, pretty much got run over. Cats also pitched a shutout. Impressive win for them. I didn't think they had it in them in that spot.
 
Last edited:
8. @Indiana -27 v Michigan State (BOL): Man, I don't know what to make of Michigan State. I liked the hire, but what is their identity? It's hard to say because they don't do anything well. Offensively, they're a mess, mostly because Aidan Chiles has proven to not be the guy, but there's a good chance he doesn't play this week and Alessio Millvojevic gets his first start. His previous performances in relief of Chiles don't elicit any optimism because the numbers have been bad. 8/18 for 100 yards last week in garbage time against UCLA was better than Chiles, but it's still not good. Now they have to go into Bloomington to play these maniacs who disemboweled Illinois 63-10 the last time the played in front of their fans. There certainly won't be the same level of motivation in this one that there was in that one, but if Indiana cares even a little bit, this Michigan State offense is going to be lucky to get to 10. The Spartan defense is also below average, and Cignetti has shown a strong taste for humiliating blowouts. Indiana can name the score here, and I think the 27 might be covered at halftime.

Ah yes, this game. Indiana had 7 drives in the entire game and scored TDs on 5 of them and got a FG on another. They averaged 8.2 yards per play. So you would expect they covered, even if the line was up there(which it was). The problem was that Michigan State was able to sustain long drives WAY more successfully then I thought they would. They had 5 drives of 7 plays or more and chewed a lot of clock. I did not see that coming. If Indiana had the ball of couple more times, it wouldn't have come down to Jonathan Smith kicking a meaningless FG to cover on their last drive in the final minute.
 
Last edited:
Timh said:
I feel your pain last week, comical loss on Cin 4 and 15 (stop them on one play game over). PI to the 3 yd line fuck me. Then I had over in Indiana lose by a point, and over in Ala lose by a point when Simpson knee goes down before hand off that was scoring play. BOL this week Brass, things will turn for the better!
Click to expand...
After Oregon missed the 35 yarder earlier in the game, as soon as Indiana got inside the 10 at the end, I was thinking that missed chip shot earlier is gonna screw me as they are gonna kick a FG and my over will be screwed. And lo and behold..
 
9. Northern Illinois +11.5 @Ohio (BR): This NIU offense is terrible, especially their pass offense, which has made me less enthusiastic about auto playing the Huskies here, but this is still too many points. They lost outright at EMU last week which is probably why the line is where it is, but these two teams are not far apart at all in overall quality. Also, the NIU defense is good enough, especially against the pass(26th) to keep the Bobcats and Parker Navarro somewhat in check. Also, as bad as they've been offensively, they can still run it pretty well with 3 different useful backs and this Ohio defense is not very good at stopping the run. I show Ohio having a slight edge when I match these units up against each other, but certainly not 11.5 points worth. We also have to remember that although NIU looked terrible last week, it wasn't in this role as a road dog, and Hammock is among the best coaches in the country at that(17-7-1). Gonna stick with the Huskies here in their money role.

That's it for me with NIU. It was a good run, but if they're gonna give up 538 yards and 48 points when they have that putrid passing attack, they're unbettable.
 
Last edited:
10. Old Dominion +1 @James Madison (BR): This one is probably going to end up at PK for maybe with ODU favored, and I can see it. I'm going back to the Monarchs this week after they completely vomited all over themselves at Marshall last week in a pretty clear look ahead spot to this one. They lost the turnover battle 5-0 and Marshall was good enough offensively to make them pay for it. I've talked about this before, but ODU has a knack for big explosive runs on offense, regardless of who they're playing against, be it a Sun Belt scrub team or Indiana in Bloomington. But that's not all they do. Overall, they are 5th in yards per play, 5th in yards per rush attempt and 7th in yards per pass attempt. They'll be playing a good JMU defense, but this JMU offense has shown that they might have major issues trying to keep pace. Alonza Barnett has been the primary QB even though they have Matthew Sluka sitting around, but he's not been effective, with their pass offense ranking only 112th in yards per pass attempt. This is against a schedule that ranked 133rd by Sagarin and defenses that include Georgia Southern, Georgia State, and LaLa, the 134th, 131st and 92nd ranked defense in yards per play respectively. ODU is significantly better than all of those defense, and the Monrachs have played a significantly tougher schedule than the Dukes have. I think we'll see the ODU squad that we've seen for the rest of the season and that last week will be a one week outlier. ODU is the better team here, so I can see why the line is shrinking.

WOW, my timing in jumping on ODU was impeccable. Ricky Rahne, you have some explaining to do. At halftime, this game was 28-27 and the yardage totals were 290-275 JMU. In the second half, JMU just kept scoring and ODU was able to muster 10 total yards in the second half. End game yardage total: JMU 624 ODU 285. JMU came in with the 112 ranked pass offense and Alonza Barnett went for almost 12 yards per attempt. a total annihilation.
 
Last edited:
Br@ssknux said:
10. Old Dominion +1 @James Madison (BR): This one is probably going to end up at PK for maybe with ODU favored, and I can see it. I'm going back to the Monarchs this week after they completely vomited all over themselves at Marshall last week in a pretty clear look ahead spot to this one. They lost the turnover battle 5-0 and Marshall was good enough offensively to make them pay for it. I've talked about this before, but ODU has a knack for big explosive runs on offense, regardless of who they're playing against, be it a Sun Belt scrub team or Indiana in Bloomington. But that's not all they do. Overall, they are 5th in yards per play, 5th in yards per rush attempt and 7th in yards per pass attempt. They'll be playing a good JMU defense, but this JMU offense has shown that they might have major issues trying to keep pace. Alonza Barnett has been the primary QB even though they have Matthew Sluka sitting around, but he's not been effective, with their pass offense ranking only 112th in yards per pass attempt. This is against a schedule that ranked 133rd by Sagarin and defenses that include Georgia Southern, Georgia State, and LaLa, the 134th, 131st and 92nd ranked defense in yards per play respectively. ODU is significantly better than all of those defense, and the Monrachs have played a significantly tougher schedule than the Dukes have. I think we'll see the ODU squad that we've seen for the rest of the season and that last week will be a one week outlier. ODU is the better team here, so I can see why the line is shrinking.
Click to expand...
Thats how I read it. I think we got ahead ourselves looking at this game. JMU defense worries me some but last year we destroyed their defense with a much worse offense. We have the team to exact some revenge on the Dukes.
 
Great start. I see a big bounce back this week! My only hesitation is Washington at Michigan. Not sure how good Michigan really is, but the travel spot sucks for Washington.
 
11. @Arkansas +7.5 v Texas A&M (BOL): There's definitely been a change in attitude at Arkansas, especially on defense since the coaching change and off week. In their first game with Petrino at the helm, they probably should have beaten Tennessee in Knoxville, having outgained the Vols and suffering a 3-0 turnover defecit yet falling only by three. Texas A&M has been rolling, and they've stymied me the past two weeks, but even after those two weeks, Mike Elko remains 5-12 ATS since he's been in College Station as a favorite and he's just 1-3 as a road favorite. This will be the first road game for the Aggies since they beat ND in week three and I think they are due for a bit of a regression. This Arkansas offense has been electric in every game other than the debacle against Notre Dame that got Sam Pittman fired, and this is the first time the Hogs will be back at home since then. If A&M is off their A game, (and they're due for that) this Arkansas offense is more than good enough to make covering more than a TD on the road a very tall task.

Got a back door cover on the last play of the game on this one so I was fortunate. 527 yards for the Hogs though against a very good D. think Arkansas remains a play on going forward, but they'll have to actually win a game next week to cover as they're teeing it up with fellow sad sack Auburn.
 
Last edited:
12. @Boise State -13 v UNLV(BR) : UNLV is undefeated but the record has come against a very weak schedule(127th per Sagarin) and in many of those games, they were either very fortunate or won while being totally unimpressive. They beat Wyoming in Laramie despite being outgained by 100 yards and being held to 255 total yards of offense. They won at Sam Houston State, one of the worst 3-4 teams in the country, but they only outgained the Bearkats by 70 yards and were dead even in first downs. They were on the road to losing at Miami(OH) until several starters for Miami went down during the game including QB Daquan Finn who they hadn't stopped all day. They are ranked 127th in run defense against that schedule, yet somehow are 3rd in the country in 3rd down defense, which seems to be a total fluke considering the rest of their defensive performance. Now have to go back on the road to Boise and face a Boise team that has played a much tougher schedule and will certainly be able to run the ball on them. Boise has 2 losses, on the road at USF and Notre Dame. They also played a high scoring game with Air Force(as has UNLV), but in the other 2 home games they've played, I think we can see what can be expected from them. When you line these tw.o teams up with each other, you see potential edges for UNLV's offense against the Boise defense. However, in their two games with New Mexico and Appy State, they've given up virtually nothing, 231 total yards to New Mexico and 184 for Appy State. This defense is much better than it's numbers, and I think this will be by far the best defense UNLV has played. Boise should be able to run all day on them and play action them to death with Madsen. This is a big game for Boise because at this point, they probably see UNLV as a legit contender to them in the Mountain West, so you'll see a focused effort. I don't think UNLV is a legit contender for them. This line has some deserved UNLV market skepticism worked into it, but I still think Boise runs away with this one.

It took awhile to get to get some daylight between these two teams, but UNLV could not stop Boise. Broncos averaged 9 yards a carry. UNLV can move the ball, but I didn't think they could sustain it, and they didn't.
 
Last edited:
Thank you as always.

*I refrain from commenting on our similar selections as that has not been a good idea.

I'll give you a good luck charm - I am the only person in the country on GaTech and not Duke.
 
Br@ssknux said:
11. @Arkansas +7.5 v Texas A&M (BOL): There's definitely been a change in attitude at Arkansas, especially on defense since the coaching change and off week. In their first game with Petrino at the helm, they probably should have beaten Tennessee in Knoxville, having outgained the Vols and suffering a 3-0 turnover defecit yet falling only by three. Texas A&M has been rolling, and they've stymied me the past two weeks, but even after those two weeks, Mike Elko remains 5-12 ATS since he's been in College Station as a favorite and he's just 1-3 as a road favorite. This will be the first road game for the Aggies since they beat ND in week three and I think they are due for a bit of a regression. This Arkansas offense has been electric in every game other than the debacle against Notre Dame that got Sam Pittman fired, and this is the first time the Hogs will be back at home since then. If A&M is off their A game, (and they're due for that) this Arkansas offense is more than good enough to make covering more than a TD on the road a very tall task.
Click to expand...
Good luck today Brass.

Fyi, weather in Fayetteville is calling for t-storms and some windy conditions...
 
13. @Florida -9.5 v Mississippi State (BR): When you line these two teams up, Florida doesn't have a very impressive statistical profile on either side of the ball. This is especially true offensively, and there's no doubt DJ Lagway has had some terrible games. However, Florida's last 4 games were at LSU, at Miami, home vs Texas and at Texas A&M. That's resulted in the Gators having played the #1 schedule in the country. In the lone home game of that group, against the Texas defense Florida gained 457 yards and DJ Lagway went for almost 10 yards per attempt. Now they are back home against a much much worse defensive opponent in the Bulldogs. This will seem like a breath of fresh air on both sides of the ball for the Gators. I like Lebby and the Bulldogs long term, but this is the #83 offense in yards per play and they haven't looked good on the road previously. Florida always seems to bounce back once the pressure starts to build on Billy Napier, I think they'll flex their muscles a bit with this class relief of a weaker opponent on their home field after what they've faced the past three weeks.

Whatever side I took on this game I would lose. Had I capped it for Miss St, they would have gotten blown out. Bad call here.
 
Last edited:
bones said:
Thank you as always.

*I refrain from commenting on our similar selections as that has not been a good idea.

I'll give you a good luck charm - I am the only person in the country on GaTech and not Duke.
Click to expand...
That might be good for you Bones.
 
I'm with Bones. I comment on your picks I like, and they lose. So I'll just say I like alot of these as well.

Once again, great write-ups. BOL today.
 
inZane said:
Good luck today Brass.

Fyi, weather in Fayetteville is calling for t-storms and some windy conditions...
Click to expand...
Yes, heard about that. There's going to be bad weather all over the place today. We'll probably have to sit through about a dozen weather delays.

In this one, I don't think it favors either team really. Both can run. Maybe A&M's depth at RB gets tested because I think Moss is either out or highly questionable.
 
14. @Iowa -3 v Penn State(BR): I actually had this game circled as soon as the schedule came out, but I didn't think I'd have to lay points! Having said that, there's no way I can change my mind on this, especially after having watched Penn State play. They looked pretty terrible in their 3 non-conference games, then were soundly outplayed by Oregon at home before being embarrassed their last two times out. Statistically the teams are pretty even, but Iowa always plays well at home and will be just as motivated as ever in a big nationally televised night game as they would have if Penn State was undefeated. We also have the unknown of the backup for Penn State in his first start, and I can't think of a tougher test for a kid in that spot than at Iowa. Iowa's special teams are as good as they always are, and they've been especially good against the run, which is what I'm assuming Penn State is going to want to do. I also think Iowa will be able to run on this Penn State D, as Northwestern and UCLA both used to run to get their wins. Penn State is going to have to show some things that they haven't previously shown us if they are going to be in this one until the end.

Well, Penn State got a blocked FG return for a TD on the last play of the first half, so they got a 10 point swing on that. Iowa did the absolute bare minimum and won by a point. Should have known Iowa couldn’t be trusted to cover a huge number like 3
 
Last edited:
15. @BYU +4.5 v Utah (BR): Not a ton of specifics on this one. Now that this line is up to 4, I have to play the Cougs here. Utah has played a slightly tougher schedule, and maybe BYU is due for a loss, but this will be a rabid environment and these teams are pretty similar. BYU's defense has been solid all year and they are good enough to compete well with the Utes offense. They're 15th in yards per play, 12th against the pass, 37th against the run and 20th on third down. I also think they have a good shot at running effectively with LJ Shelton and Bachmeier because the Utes have been a little leaky in the defensive run game. Sitake has always been a great dog, and with the even-ness(if that's a word) of this matchup, I'll take the home dog here. You might say BYU has been fortunate, but this is a 2+ year run in which they are constantly finding ways to win. This is a tough squad.

Added a little more at 4.5

Good job by Sitake and the Cougars here. Tough environment for the Utes. BYU got outgained but they made winning plays as usual. Post game win expectancy was actually in BYU’s favor
 
Last edited:
Lots of other great night games, but I can't get a good enough read on them to justify a write up.

Tennessee has been terrible in road dog spots like this, but I just don't like that Miller appears to be out for Bama. Can't lay with Mizzou, but I certainly cant back Auburn with what's happened to them. I like USC and what they've done but you'd have to be insane to play Riley on the road anywhere outside of the Western time zone, especially if the weather looks bad. Can't lay 10 with ND though.

Hope everyone has a good week. The only other game I might add later is Nevada +12/13 at New Mexico, but I'm holding off on that for now.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Yes, heard about that. There's going to be bad weather all over the place today. We'll probably have to sit through about a dozen weather delays.

In this one, I don't think it favors either team really. Both can run. Maybe A&M's depth at RB gets tested because I think Moss is either out or highly questionable.
Click to expand...
moss is out
owens will probably start
 
Br@ssknux said:
Lots of other great night games, but I can't get a good enough read on them to justify a write up.

Tennessee has been terrible in road dog spots like this, but I just don't like that Miller appears to be out for Bama. Can't lay with Mizzou, but I certainly cant back Auburn with what's happened to them. I like USC and what they've done but you'd have to be insane to play Riley on the road anywhere outside of the Western time zone, especially if the weather looks bad. Can't lay 10 with ND though.

Hope everyone has a good week. The only other game I might add later is Nevada +12/13 at New Mexico, but I'm holding off on that for now.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure Jam Miller is playing tonight. How much is uncertain, but he’s been cleared. I still can’t get a great read on the game so I’m laying off anyway
 
Week ended up 7-8. 51-59-4. Gonna be a long slog to get to positive. I think it's safe to say that I have not been reading things well the past few weeks. Great start but again, I just can't get any 3:30 window games to work out. Also, I had a bunch that I thought about writing up but didn't in the night window.

Bama, Mizzou, USC, Nevada. I was at an out of town wedding so I couldn't get to writing up Nevada, but at least I got a bet on that one.

Biggest regret of the year: I've known Texas's offense (and especially Manning)has been trash since their second drive of the season, and I am yet to get them correct on a write up. This week it was because I didn't trust Kentucky to score any points, and they didn't, but Texas's offense was so bad it didn't matter. 395-179 yard edge!! Good Lord. Got a late start on recaps due to travel, but tackling them now.
 
Jesus that ODU gm was a total shitfest in 2h. I hate myself for making that bet.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Week ended up 7-8. 51-59-4. Gonna be a long slog to get to positive. I think it's safe to say that I have not been reading things well the past few weeks. Great start but again, I just can't get any 3:30 window games to work out. Also, I had a bunch that I thought about writing up but didn't in the night window.

Bama, Mizzou, USC, Nevada. I was at an out of town wedding so I couldn't get to writing up Nevada, but at least I got a bet on that one.

Biggest regret of the year: I've known Texas's offense (and especially Manning)has been trash since their second drive of the season, and I am yet to get them correct on a write up. This week it was because I didn't trust Kentucky to score any points, and they didn't, but Texas's offense was so bad it didn't matter. 395-179 yard edge!! Good Lord. Got a late start on recaps due to travel, but tackling them now.
Click to expand...
Win, lose it draw the recaps are invaluable
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top