Week 8 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
6-9 last week so we're chasing .500 again.(51-53) What a joke. I can't get out of my own way, but hey!! There's still plenty of time left!! As I mentioned last week, the MAC is now completely banned for me after that Kent State debacle, and I paid for my overreach on favorites, as I went 1-5 when I laid the wood. Let's see what happens this week.

One comment on a game I won't be playing, which is Iowa/OSU. If someone would have told me back in August that Iowa/OSU would have a 30-31 point line, here's how the conversation would go:

Me: "Iowa is getting 31? What happened? Was they have a mutiny against Ferentz? Did their defense lose 10 starters to injury?"

Other Guy: "Nope. No mutiny. And Iowa's defense is ranked in the top 5 in pretty much everything."

Me: "So what happened?"

Other guy: "Iowa's offense is horrible, and OSU's offense is awesome.

Me: "I already knew that on both counts. What else?"

Other Guy: "That's it. That's why the line is what it is. But let me better define just how horrible this Iowa offense is...."

That's the key. August me would assume that I would be on Iowa taking those points, but I'm here to tell you that OSU's offense is so good and Iowa's offense is so bad (along with some significant improvement from the OSU defense) that if someone put a gun to my head, I would lay the 31 with OSU. THAT is how bad the Spencer Petras/Brian Ferentz offense is.


On to the week....

Kansas +10.5 LOSS (Front door)
UCLA +6.5 LOSS
UTSA -10 LOSS
LSU ML WIN
Tulane -7 WIN
Purdue +2 LOSS
South Carolina +3.5 WIN
East Carolina +5 WIN
Minnesota +4.5 LOSS
Kansas State +3.5 LOSS (Right side here but terrible QB injury luck)
UNLV +26.5 WIN
Oregon State -23 WIN (Good old Jonny Smith. $$ as a home fave)
Cal +7.5 WIN


7-6

1. Kansas +10.5 @Baylor: Back to the well with my guy Lance Leipold and the Jayhawks again. They gave up 700 yards of offense to Oklahoma yet almost covered my number anyway, a sort of worst case scenario that almost bore fruit. This week they are dogged by just as much in Waco against a 3-3 Baylor squad that is coming off a loss at West Virginia. Please don't misunderstand: I am a huge fan of Dave Aranda and the Bars, but neither of these teams strike me as likely to be in a blowout, one way or another. Baylor is much better than their record, but they are finding ways to have game results that don't match the scrimmaging. They outgained Oklahoma State only to lose by 11. They dominated the West Virginia game at times, but allowed the Mountaineers to come out on top. a pretty flawed BYU team beat them because they couldn't make a field goal. QB Blake Shapen looks like he'll play, but he's banged up, and probably finds himself one hard hit from the bench. Kansas QB Jason Bean has been resourceful and can run the ball as well, and I am not giving up on Leipold, who has inspired great efforts since he got there. After these past couple of losses, I think people are giving up on Kansas, but I don't see this Baylor team as being in a position to run away with this game. Nothing in their pedigree this year indicates that they can do that against a solid team, and I still think Kansas is that. I'll take 10.5 in this case.
 
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2. UCLA +6.5 @Oregon: This game should be a barnburner as both teams have offenses that are on a roll and both have defenses that leave things to be desired. UCLA looks a lot better on paper, as they rank 19th in yards per play against, 14th in yards per rush and 21st in yards per pass attempt, but a lot of that success came against a soft schedule, and if you watched them last week against Utah, their defense had a lot of bend and decent amount of break. My major concern with their defense however is that they are highly unlikely to get any pass rush on Bo Nix, and when Home Bo Nix can sit back there unmolested, it's usually a recipe for a long day. Having said all that, not appearing aesthetically pleasing to Brassknux's eye is irrelevant because their offense is trouncing people. Chip Kelly is back to the "throw it to one side of the field and there aren't any defenders over there" offense that he made famous when he himself was in Eugene. I don't think that's going to change this week either because Oregon might have even less chance to pressure DTR as the Bruin defense does Nix because they don't pressure anyone. They also don't cover anyone(80th in yards per pass attempt v UCLA 10th) and they can't get off the field on 3rd down (127th against UCLA's 4th ranked 3rd down offense). Fears of DTR being inconsistence and mistake prone are overblown in my opinion...the guy is a 5th year senior, he didn't have any problems like that last year and he's been flawless this year. Autzen is tough, but he's been there and done that. Also, on that score, don't forget that the last time UCLA went up there, the Bruins went in there without DTR and played the Ducks to a 38-35 standstill with Chase Griffin at QB. This is a tossup between two good offenses that will be rolling, so I'll obviously take the 6.5 here, and if we have a shot of buying up to 7, I'll be all over it.
 
3. @UTSA -10 v North Texas: Both of these defenses have struggled, but North Texas is a special case. The Mean Green this season has given up 576 yards to SMU, 458 to TEXAS SOUTHERN, 576 to UNLV and 504 to Louisiana Tech. UTSA's offense is the best of that bunch and by a mile over all of them except possibly SMU. This is a huge game in CUSA as both teams are 3-0 in conference, and UTSA has a legit revenge spot here as they got their asses handed to them in Denton last year after they clinched the division title. It was a stinging defeat because they were undefeated at the time and t ended up being their only regular season loss. Now they get the Mean Green on their home field in another big game, and Frank Harris has to be licking his chops when he sees the film of this defense. UNT can run the ball well, but QB Austin Aune is good for a pick or two in every big game(17 INTs over the past year plus), so don't be surprised if the Roadrunners get a couple of short fields. I just think this will be a motivated UTSA squad in front of a fired up crowd in a situation they should thrive in. Tough spot for the Mean Green here.
 
4. @LSU -118(ML) v Ole Miss: Despite Ole Miss being undefeated, I've been able to cash a few tickets fading them, and i think they might be a good candidate for a swoon, and it's likely to start this week. I finally got off the LSU schneid last week, so naturally, here I am back on the Kelly bandwagon. By any measure, LSU has played a much tougher schedule than Ole Miss(94th toughest schedule per Phil Steele, right between Central Michigan and Miami(OH)), and the Rebels have had a devil of a time shaking some of these inferior teams. Their best win was a few weeks ago at home against Kentucky by 3, but the Wildcats giftwrapped that win with a couple fumbles deep in Rebel territory. Offensively, they've been good running the ball, and frankly all of their metrics look ok due to the schedule, but even Kiffin himself has not seemed all that enamored with his team and he's strangely stingy with any positive comments about Jaxson Dart or any of his other QBs. LSU's offense was humming last week and has shown signs of improvement, which we expected to see under a Kelly coached team, especially when Kayshon Boutte finally appears to feel like playing, as he carded his first good game of the season last week. The Ole Miss defense will need to come up with answers after Robby Ashford and Auburn spent the whole second half marching up and down the field on them last week. We have an unranked team favored over a top 10 team for a reason here, and I think Ole Miss's undefeated season is about to be spoiled here.
 
5. @Tulane -7 v Memphis: Back on the fade of Memphis this week, as this is about as extreme as you can get on the trend side of things. Willie Fritz is an absolute monster at home. He's 26-12-1 ATS at home since he's been at Tulane, and he's 13-3 as a home favorite since 2019. Memphis on the other hand, covered for the first time as a road dog under Silverfield last week at ECU by a whisker, so you'll excuse me if I'm skeptical that they can do it again after back to back crushing defeats. In addition to the solid trend angle, this is a great matchup for the Green Wave as well, as their forte is pass defense, and that's what Memphis will be trying to do because they can't run the ball. Also, Michael Pratt has been great throwing the ball(9.5 yards per attempt and an 11/2 ratio) while Memphis ranks 88th in yards per attempt against, and that's while facing an average group of pass offenses. Tulane is in the midst of a great bounceback season, complete with a headlining victory over Kansas State. They are balanced on both sides of the ball and are positioning themselves as a darkhorse Group of 5 New Years Day candidate. I think they'll win going away in this one.
 
6. Purdue +2 @Wisconsin: If you've followed these 2 teams this year, you can tell that these teams are going in two different directions. I thought Wisconsin might be turning the corner under Jim Leonhard, but when you get handled by the current vintage of Michigan State, you are turning zero corners. When the Badgers totaled 2 rushing yards and only 208 total yards on their home field against Illinois, it seemed like an anomaly. It's one embarrassing game and Illinois is turning out to be one of the better defenses in the country anyway. But when you only crack the 200 yard mark late in the 4th quarter against a defense like Michigan State's, and get outgained by 100+ yards in the process on the same field that Minnesota put a 508-244 yard whoopin on the Spartans only 3 weeks earlier? That's bad news. Bad News. Now Purdue, who is on a mission to win the Big Ten West and has an infinitely better offense and defense then Michigan State comes in. I understand that it would be a huge departure to favor Purdue in Madison for the first time since 2003, especially given that the Badgers have won 15 in a row in the series, but it serves to put Purdue in the dreaded road dog role, dreaded that is for the opponent. This is obviously not the rushing offense nor the defense that we've become accustomed to with the Badgers, and if nothing else, Purdue has been resilient and much more balanced on offense with the emergence of Devin Mockobee. Purdue has proven to be the better team this year, and I'm sure they will be itching to get that red and white Mouse off their back.
 
7. @South Carolina +3.5 v Texas A&M: A&M has historically been a good road favorite, but i can't back them here. South Carolina looks to me to be a team that's putting it together in an effort to get themselves to a second consecutive bowl game under Shane Beamer. He's obviously got the team bought in as even Spencer rattler was saying all the right things after their win in Lexington a couple weeks ago. They've gotten healthy thanks to two easy games with Charlotte and South Carolina State two of the last 3 weeks and then an actual off week last week have prepared them for this tilt with A&M. They still have a couple guys out for the year on defense, but the rest of their previously banged up defenders are back, and they looked good 2 weeks ago albeit against a backup QB. A&M was the recipient of some fortuitous turnovers which allowed them to find themselves in the Alabama game, but they remain completely pedestrian on offense, and their run defense has been very suspect(106th) while SC RB Marshawn Lloyd has established himself nicely the past 3 weeks, capped off by a 126 yard performance at Kentucky against a nice run defense for the Wildcats. There's excitement in Columbia off that Kentucky win and the place should be rocking in a night atmosphere. A&M doesn't scare anyone offensively, this just looks like a good spot for the Gamecocks.
 
8. @East Carolina +5 v UCF: I like UCF under Malzahn, and I especially like John Rhys Plumlee, but I don't think this is a very good spot for them having come off a game in which they dropped 70 points on Temple. This is UCF's first foray outside the state of Florida and even in the friendly confines of the Bounce House, they've gotten stuffed by the likes of Louisville and Georgia Tech when their run game has stalled. They've also given up 450+ yards to any of the teams on their schedule with a pulse, and ECU is on par or better than those teams. ECU has all kinds of trouble against the pass, but they rank 18th against the run, so they'll force Plumlee to complete downfield throws, something he's struggled with when the threat of the run gets neutralized. ECU has a tendency to sneak up on teams as a home dog in situations like this...this looks like a dangerous spot for the Knights.
 
9. Minnesota +4.5 @Penn State: I think most people are working under the assumption that Tanner Morgan is not going to play after getting roughed up last week in Champaign, but he has not been ruled out. Even if he is ruled out, there's no reason to think the backup won't be much better prepared to play than he was coming on cold last week, especially when the game plan will be to run the ball down Penn State's throat, and it looks to me like the Gophers should be in a decent position to do that. Mo Ibrahim, as long as he stays healthy proved last week that he is a difference maker, having averaged 8+ yards per carry on an Illinois defense that had previously held Braelon Allen to 2 yards rushing a couple weeks earlier. The Minnesota offense should get some class relief here as Penn State is 77th against the run and 90th in sack rate. The Gopher defense got exposed a bit last week, but they still lead the nation on 3rd down and they still grade out as a top 15 defense. PJ Fleck has made a living on conjuring up good performances when you least expect it, especially as road dogs, and this matchup looks like a good one for them. 4.5 jumps out as not sufficient, especially in a white out night game in Happy Valley, yet it hasn't moved much, even with the likelihood of the QB being out. Clifford is also banged up for Penn State, but the fans have been clamoring for the backup Allar, so I don't think his being out would have much effect on the line. It's a bit of a fishy line, so when you add that the matchup shapes up well for the Gophers, it's a take situation for me.
 
10. Kansas State +3.5 @TCU: Again, I'm a fan of TCU, and they've been good to me, but this is another tough spot. Consider: Starting with their rivalry game at SMU, they've had 4 straight weeks of big games, culminating in an emotional overtime comeback last week against Oklahoma State. Now they have to go back at it again this week against a Kansas State team that is tied with them at the top of the conference with an undefeated Big 12 record. By the way, that K State team should also have a pretty significant edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball and is coming off a bye featuring a coach who knows what he's doing. There's also a forecast for high winds, and all K State wants to do is run it or throw it with a controlled passing game to keep TCU's skill guys off the field. Deuce Vaughn and Adrian Martinez look to be terrible matchups for the TCU defense, and the K State defense is worlds better than the last 4 squads the Frogs have lined up against. It's a stiff test for sure, and if the Frogs handle this one, I'll take my hat off to them because they'll be an almost mortal lock for a berth in the Big 12 title game(and I possess a TCU Big 12 title ticket, so that wouldn't be terrible.)
 
Br@ssknux said:
9. Minnesota +4.5 @Penn State: I think most people are working under the assumption that Tanner Morgan is not going to play after getting roughed up last week in Champaign, but he has not been ruled out. Even if he is ruled out, there's no reason to think the backup won't be much better prepared to play than he was coming on cold last week, especially when the game plan will be to run the ball down Penn State's throat, and it looks to me like the Gophers should be in a decent position to do that. Mo Ibrahim, as long as he stays healthy proved last week that he is a difference maker, having averaged 8+ yards per carry on an Illinois defense that had previously held Braelon Allen to 2 yards rushing a couple weeks earlier. The Minnesota offense should get some class relief here as Penn State is 77th against the run and 90th in sack rate. The Gopher defense got exposed a bit last week, but they still lead the nation on 3rd down and they still grade out as a top 15 defense. PJ Fleck has made a living on conjuring up good performances when you least expect it, especially as road dogs, and this matchup looks like a good one for them. 4.5 jumps out as not sufficient, especially in a white out night game in Happy Valley, yet it hasn't moved much, even with the likelihood of the QB being out. Clifford is also banged up for Penn State, but the fans have been clamoring for the backup Allar, so I don't think his being out would have much effect on the line. It's a bit of a fishy line, so when you add that the matchup shapes up well for the Gophers, it's a take situation for me.
Click to expand...
Fishy line? The stats and SOS say the game should be a pick-em at best even before factoring in the negative situational factors for Penn State. If I knew both QB’s were playing, I would make this line Gophers -7.
 
M.W. said:
Fishy line? The stats and SOS say the game should be a pick-em at best even before factoring in the negative situational factors for Penn State. If I knew both QB’s were playing, I would make this line Gophers -7.
Click to expand...
Looks like we're on the right side then!

Just to clarify, as soon as Minny lost their second consecutive game against decent competition having thrown for 30 yards or whatever, I was waiting for this line. I figured given how bad the Gophers looked, along with the name value of Penn State at home, the overreaction would be bigger.
 
11. UNLV +26.5 @Notre Dame: Sorry this is out of order. I hemmed and hawed on this and ultimately, since QB Brumfield an RB Robbins are both going to be out, I was going to pass on it, but I really can't pass up this many points against this Notre Dame team. They can't score, and you have to question how much motivation they have now that they are 3-3 after starting the year ranked 5th. Even if they have motivation, they've been outgained at home by both Stanford and Cal, and they got run off the field by Marshall, all at home. UNLV is not bad on defense, and although Cam Friel is not great, this will be his third start at QB. This is a straight fade of Notre Dame. If they muster up enough to cover this it will be the first time they've done it in the home environment all year, and UNLV isn't much worse than teams that have already beaten them there.
 
12. @Oregon State -23 v Colorado: Nice win for the Buffs last week, as Cal often provides the fodder for the dregs of the Pac 12 to get a win, but I think the good feelings are going to be short lived. In three road games this year, the Buffs have been outgained by 296 yards per game. Two of the teams, Minnesota and Air Force predictably ran them into submission so completely that there was no point in ever throwing the ball. The only team that felt it necessary to throw, Arizona, rang up 495 yards on 49 attempts. Although the OSU offense is pretty adept at throwing it from a yards per attempt standpoint, their MO is to run it, and Colorado is ranked 130th against the run. Defensively, the Beavs have held Utah and USC to their lowest offensive yardage output of the year, so they shouldn't have much issue with the feeble Colorado attack that ranks 97th or worse in every conceivable offensive category. Since taking over in 2018, Jonathan Smith is 8-1 as a home favorite, and i don't see any reason why they wouldn't keep that mojo going here. You'd have some fear of the fired coach continued bounceback from Colorado, but the coach is Mike Sanford Jr, so no.
 
13. @California +7.5 v Washington: Cal is coming off a horrific game, having lost to Pac 12 doormat Colorado ^^^^^ last week. They're no stranger to that actually, as they lost to winless Arizona last year when their administration insisted on a hyper conservative contact tracing process that left most of their team in Berkeley. They bounced back the following week to stomp Stanford 41-11, and I think they'll have a good effort here. Justin Wilcox is an underdog coach, covering in 67% of his games as a dog, and they face the perfect foil here in Washington, who has completely shit the bed in both of their road games. It's no fault of Kalen DeBoer's offense but rather his defense, who can't seem to stop a soul. Despite their effort last week, Cal is solid enough offensively to score on this Washington defense, and if the Huskies don't bring their A game on offense, they'll be in danger of losing this game outright, considering how they've played on the road.
 
M.W. said:
Fishy line? The stats and SOS say the game should be a pick-em at best even before factoring in the negative situational factors for Penn State. If I knew both QB’s were playing, I would make this line Gophers -7.
Click to expand...
Are you serious?? Minny -7 in happy valley? I don't care of Todd Blackledge came back, (in present time), that line still wouldn't be Minn-7.
 
How many opposing QBs are going to get hurt in TCU games? Gabriel against OU, Daniels against Kansas, Sanders turns into a rag arm last week and now 2 of them for K State. Remarkable. Howard was shredding them too.
 
ronnie a said:
Are you serious?? Minny -7 in happy valley? I don't care of Todd Blackledge came back, (in present time), that line still wouldn't be Minn-7.
Click to expand...
100% serious. And I said what it should be, not what it would be . What in the world?
 
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