Week 8 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
I'm not sure about everyone else, but this is yet another hard card to decipher. I can't imagine that it's all that interesting to the non betting crowd out there, as I only have interest in watching a couple of the games on the slate. I'll find a few to comment on though.

6-6 last week moves the season long record to 56-36-2, which is slightly above the perpetual goal of 60% for the year. I'll need to strong week to stay on track.

Colorado State -3 LOSS
Michigan -23.5 WIN
Army +3 LOSS
Purdue +3.5 LOSS
Syracuse +3.5 WIN
Clemson +3 LOSS
Minnesota -4 WIN
UAB -23.5 LOSS OUTRIGHT
BC +5 LOSS
LSU +8/+10 LOSS REGARDLESS OF THE NUMBER
Ohio State -21 WIN
Georgia Tech +7 LOSS

4-8

1. Colorado State -3 @ Utah State(Friday): Utah State has given me a couple nice wins this year, but both have been when they were significant dogs on this road. they've actually burned me when I've backed them as home dogs, and they've burned everyone who's bet on them in that role, going 2-9 as home dogs since 2017. Colorado State's defense is legitimate. They're second in the country in yards per play, and hey lead the nation in yards per rush against at only 2.2 per rush. It's true that some of their opponents have been weak offensive outfits, but nether Toledo or Iowa could crack 2 yards per carry against them, and both are historically very good rushing offenses. Utah State is probably better than some of the offenses the Rams have already dominated, but they are by no means an explosive offense themselves, ranking 72nd in yards per play. The Aggies also sport a below average defense, ranking 116th in overall yards per play and 121st in yards per carry, which should make standout CSU running back David Bailey stand up and take notice. This is a weeknight game, so tread lightly, as I've breaking a moratorium here. As an aside....there's so many weeknight games this week that I really couldn't afford to just ignore all of them. Ultimately, CSU has a big advantage in just about every matchup category I look at, so with the bad home dog history of the Aggies, and the fact that I have the overwhelmingly better defense, I'm liking the short number here.
 
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Brass BOL this week, you are doing an incredible handicapping job this season.
 
Good luck this week buddy. Love CSU -3 I locked in too and will be posting my first batch of write-ups after work around 5
 
2. @MIchigan -23.5 v Northwestern: I really can't remember the last time I faded Northwestern as a road dog, but in my opinion there's really no other way to go in this one, especially now that the line has dipped under 24. And I hate doing this, trust me. Sizable favorites are no fun to bet on, but I really can't see the Cats hanging in this one. We all know coming into the season that it was going to be at least a rough start for Northwestern, as they were one of the few teams who returned very few returning starters. In their case, it's because they had 2 first round draft picks and then bunch of contributors who after topping out their potential with a Big Ten West title and a bowl win were ready to move on with their lucrative lives rather than waste a year of earning potential trying improve on something their talent wouldn't allow an improvement on. Most other programs were filled with kids that really had nothing better to do, so they stayed on. The end result was Fitzy in a much worse spot than his competition, especially on the defensive side of the ball. There's a severe talent issue up front for the Cats(at least for now) and that has resulted in some truly grotesque rush defense numbers against good teams. They've done fine against the 3 terrible offensive teams they've played (Indiana State, Ohio and Rutgers..actually Ohio ran it for 5.8 years per carry but stunk to high heaven in every other facet of the game), but when they've faced good offenses, it has been ugly. Michigan State, Nebraska and even Duke moved the ball at will on them, and Michigan is the best of all of them, especially via the run. The Cats offense is better than it was under Ryan Hilinski vs Hunter Johnson, but he's been below average at all 3 schools he's been at, so I see no reason to believe Michigan will be at all tested on that side of the ball either. As much as I have profited on backing the Cats in this spot over the years, I can't see any way they compete here.
 
Good luck this week Brass. Your insight is a welcome tool.

When we're on the same side I feel good. When we're on the other sides, I wonder what I missed.

:cheers3:
 
3. @Army +3 v Wake Forest: It's true that Wake is one of only a handful of undefeated teams left, but I don't think this matchup shapes up to be a good one for them. Wake has been weak in the trenches, struggling mightily to run the ball and ranking 92nd in the country in yards per carry. Louisville and Syracuse both ran extremely well against the Deacs the past two weeks, and we all know that Army will be successful. The Knights usually get in trouble when the opponent can overpower them and keep their defense on the field with a strong run game, but I don't think that will happen this week as Army looks to have the edge in that side of the running game as well as the Knights rank 10th in the country in yards per carry against, with only Wisconsin having any measure of success against them(4.5 yards per carry...not exactly a domination). Wake should be able to throw on them, but they better be efficient with that passing game because their defense is likely to be stuck on the field for long stretches. Even if Wake can put points on the board, it's likely to be quick via the pass, which won't help their defense much. Their possessions will be limited, so if they struggle on 3rd down(and Army is very good on 3rd down on both sides of the ball) the Deacs could be in a trick bag. Wake was lucky to escape Syracuse with a win, but they won't have Dino Babers out there botching the clock and otherwise fouling things up things up this week to gift wrap a victory.
 
I’m hesitant to join u on wolverines because of possible look ahead factor. Next week they play for the state championship. Good luck with it. Michigan one of my favorite teams
 
4. @Purdue +3.5 v Wisconsin: Wisconsin's spreads have been inflated all year, most egregiously in their games against Notre Dame and Michigan, and I think this might be another case of it. Historically, the Badgers have been a really good road favorite, and they appeared to get themselves on track with a nice reset in that role a couple weeks ago at Illinois, but that Illinois offense is so broken that I don't think you can put much stock in that result. Basically what we have here is a bit of a dead heat. Both teams look to have a disadvantage on offense against the opposing defense. In Purdue's case, they have no shot of being able to run on the Badgers, but it's never been much of a modus operandi for them anyway. Wisconsin will have trouble doing much of anything against Purdue's defense, who has been good against the run but especially good against the pass. The major point in Purdue's favor is that they have a healthy David Bell, and that makes their passing game something that can have success against the Wisconsin defense, and represents the one aspect of the two offenses that can indicate some competence. Ultimately I trust the Purdue passing game a ton more than I trust Graham Mertz and the Badgers, and since I have the home team and 3 1/2 points on my side, it's a play for me, even though I'm sure I'm not close to the only guy who is fading the Badgers on his card this week.
 
That what scares me bout Purdue, who in their right mind is laying points with wiscy anemic offense these days? Mertz is Fuckin terrible, anyone remember when he came out in the Rona shortened season and looked awesome vs Illini? Really thought wiscy had something there, he been terrible ever since! From a matchup standpoint agree with everything you wrote, home dog the only way to play this imo. Great write ups as always bro (with you on Rams tonight).
 
Sorry a bit out of chronological order

5. Syracuse +3.5 @ Virginia Tech: I was hoping for a little more cushion here, especially since Syracuse has had a hard time breaking into the win column on the road(and since Dino Babers seems to find new ways to cough up a victory just about every week) but this sets up really well for the Orange. VT has a decent defense, but they struggle to stop the run, which is Syracuse's strength. RB Sean Tucker has run well on just about everyone, including Clemson the last time out, and QB Garrett Schrader runs effectively as well. Syracuse also has a major edge on defense against a VT offense that ranks 111th in yards per play and struggle to throw it just as bad as the Cuse does. I'm getting the much better running game and the significantly better defense in this one. Even though the line is a little short of what I'd prefer, Syracuse has proven to be the better team this year, and this short spread on the home favorite looks to me to be an effort by the books to fool people into backing a flawed Hokie squad.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Sorry a bit out of chronological order

5. Syracuse +3.5 @ Virginia Tech: I was hoping for a little more cushion here, especially since Syracuse has had a hard time breaking into the win column on the road(and since Dino Babers seems to find new ways to cough up a victory just about every week) but this sets up really well for the Orange. VT has a decent defense, but they struggle to stop the run, which is Syracuse's strength. RB Sean Tucker has run well on just about everyone, including Clemson the last time out, and QB Garrett Schrader runs effectively as well. Syracuse also has a major edge on defense against a VT offense that ranks 111th in yards per play and struggle to throw it just as bad as the Cuse does. I'm getting the much better running game and the significantly better defense in this one. Even though the line is a little short of what I'd prefer, Syracuse has proven to be the better team this year, and this short spread on the home favorite looks to me to be an effort by the books to fool people into backing a flawed Hokie squad.
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Jumped on this one too right when the line moved to 3.5 (and bought to 4) knew it was going to move towards the more notable program! Got it for 1.5x units and .5x on the ml as it's my fav play of the week. Write-up was a peice of cake as all the numbers I look at show the wrong team was favored.

Purdue peaked my interest but line mismatch is scary.....Top 10 D line vs Bottom 10 O line in most line categories on football outsiders
 
6. Clemson +3.5 @ Pitt: Clemson is 0-6 against the spread, and it's obvious that the books have been slow to adjust to their legitimately bad offense, as they've been significant favorites every week despite a lot of evidence that they shouldn't be. It seems they've been waiting for an improvement in offensive output that just doesn't seem to be coming. Pitt on the other hand has been a public darling, covering like a champ last week at Virginia Tech despite the line ballooning up to almost a TD. Now finally, adjustments have been made on both sides, and Pitt is installed as a 3.5 point favorite, the first time Clemson has been a regular season dog since 2016. I really don't think you could conjure up a better formula to result in the best effort of the year for Clemson, and maybe the worst effort for Pitt. It's true that Pitt's offense, led by QB Kenny Pickett has been terrific. However they are in their element as a road team, and all their good performances have been there. They've played 2 cupcakes and Western Michigan so far at home, and they dropped the game to WMU. Now they are back home in all their glory expected to dispatch of Clemson. Teams that are seldom underdogs usually respond well in that role, and Dabo Swinney has all sorts of ammo to motivate his guys this year. Also, stud receiver Justyn Rose is as healthy as he's been all year, and if there's a pass defense this Clemson offense will break out against, it'll be this Pitt pass D that's ranked 78th and gave up more than 10 yards per attempt to Georgia Tech a couple weeks ago. We should also remember that although we all know how bad Clemson's offense has been, their defense is extremely solid again, including 9th against the pass. There's no doubt Pitt has been good and Clemson the opposite, I don't like the way this is setting up for Pitt.
 
Br@ssknux said:
6. Clemson +3.5 @ Pitt: Clemson is 0-6 against the spread, and it's obvious that the books have been slow to adjust to their legitimately bad offense, as they've been significant favorites every week despite a lot of evidence that they shouldn't be. It seems they've been waiting for an improvement in offensive output that just doesn't seem to be coming. Pitt on the other hand has been a public darling, covering like a champ last week at Virginia Tech despite the line ballooning up to almost a TD. Now finally, adjustments have been made on both sides, and Pitt is installed as a 3.5 point favorite, the first time Clemson has been a regular season dog since 2016. I really don't think you could conjure up a better formula to result in the best effort of the year for Clemson, and maybe the worst effort for Pitt. It's true that Pitt's offense, led by QB Kenny Pickett has been terrific. However they are in their element as a road team, and all their good performances have been there. They've played 2 cupcakes and Western Michigan so far at home, and they dropped the game to WMU. Now they are back home in all their glory expected to dispatch of Clemson. Teams that are seldom underdogs usually respond well in that role, and Dabo Swinney has all sorts of ammo to motivate his guys this year. Also, stud receiver Justyn Rose is as healthy as he's been all year, and if there's a pass defense this Clemson offense will break out against, it'll be this Pitt pass D that's ranked 78th and gave up more than 10 yards per attempt to Georgia Tech a couple weeks ago. We should also remember that although we all know how bad Clemson's offense has been, their defense is extremely solid again, including 9th against the pass. There's no doubt Pitt has been good and Clemson the opposite, I don't like the way this is setting up for Pitt.
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Oh man. I hate when we go H2H and I love me some Pitt here (I got -3, didn’t want to lay more in case clemson manages to make it another low scoring affair). Think you got me on the last one we differed so think it my turn! Lol.

You right about Pitt pass d, any game I look to play them my initial cap is deciding if opponent can take advantage of their secondary which imo the weakest spot on the team. Not sure DJ can consistently do that? I expect tigers hit a explosive play or 2 but don’t think they can drive the field very often. Pitt takes too many chances on the back end, I’d like to see them play some softer coverages here but dunno they will. What I think the problem will be for tigers is Pitt pass rush is really good, they run a lot of stunts and other games up front and I have seen those things give clemson oline a ton of issues. At this point in the season I just think for most part teams are what they are, obviously some improve or decline but pretty confident tigers the team I have watched unable to crack 20 points in regulation time in all their acc games, imo this the best acc defense they have seen. I have a tough time giving them more than 17-20 points.

On the other side Pitt oline has been fantastic protecting Pickett, he holds the ball a really long time giving his wrs a chance to get open which I think will be key here. Venables could choose to bring some blitzes to try and force Pickett to get ball out quicker but that sets up other problems as Pickett has a 130ish passer rating vs the blitz this year! I think Pickett is potentially the best qb in the nation this year (argument can certainly be made for Corral and a few others but it a short list!). He came back to exercise the demons of this game in particular! Imo this the best passing attack clemson has seen. Just don’t think they can hold Pickett to less than mid to high 20s which obviously has me thinking cover with the point total I expect from tigers.

Full discloser I was on Pitt catching a bunch of points at clemson last year also and Pickett threw 2-3 picks before I could blink my eyes and game was over within the 1st 5 minutes!! Truly believe he exercises the demons this year and makes a lot more ppl stand up and take notice when he puts on a show vs a very good clemson d! I honestly think if Pitt didn’t shit the bed in Pitt fashion against western Michigan earlier In the year we be talking bout them as a top 10 team. Imo Pitt the class the acc and they prove it 2marro night! I been wrong before tho, the fact you on clemson doesn’t make me feel good, I gotta stick with my belief on this one tho! At least if I’m wrong I’ll be happy you and others cashed!!!
 
7. @Minnesota -4 v Maryland: At this point in the season, it's safe to say that Maryland is pretty much dead in the water. Just about every year, they start out impressively only to have a brutal curb stomping, usually at home, and then it's all downhill from there. Consider the past few years. In 2015 they started 2-1, only to get blasted 45-6 at West Virginia. The then lost their next 8 until they squeaked out a 4 point win against Rutgers to close the season. In 2016, they started 5-2 only to lose 4(including a 3 game stretch in which they were outscored 149-13) in a row before again winning the finale against Rutgers. In 2017, they started 3-1 before getting blown out 62-14 at Ohio State. They then proceeded to lose 6 of their last 7. In '18, they were 4-2 until Iowa shut them out 23-0. They then lost 4 of their last 5, beating only a helpless Illinois team at home in the middle of it. In '19 it was Penn State's turn, a 59-0 weeknight whoopin at home that led to a skid of 7 of their last 8. You get the picture. It happens every year. This year it was the Iowa game. Iowa sprinkled the turnover pixie dust on Little Tua and then the Terps followed that up with a 66-17 shellacking at Ohio State last week. Now they go to Minnesota this week. Are we to expect them to shake it off after two weeks and turn their season around? There certainly isn't any precedence for it. If they get off the deck and hang with the Gophers I'll tip my cap, but all previous evidence suggests this is week 3 of a 8 week swan song, and the Gophers and PJ Fleck seem totally qualified to keep the momentum going.
 
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2daBank said:
Oh man. I hate when we go H2H and I love me some Pitt here (I got -3, didn’t want to lay more in case clemson manages to make it another low scoring affair). Think you got me on the last one we differed so think it my turn! Lol.

You right about Pitt pass d, any game I look to play them my initial cap is deciding if opponent can take advantage of their secondary which imo the weakest spot on the team. Not sure DJ can consistently do that? I expect tigers hit a explosive play or 2 but don’t think they can drive the field very often. Pitt takes too many chances on the back end, I’d like to see them play some softer coverages here but dunno they will. What I think the problem will be for tigers is Pitt pass rush is really good, they run a lot of stunts and other games up front and I have seen those things give clemson oline a ton of issues. At this point in the season I just think for most part teams are what they are, obviously some improve or decline but pretty confident tigers the team I have watched unable to crack 20 points in regulation time in all their acc games, imo this the best acc defense they have seen. I have a tough time giving them more than 17-20 points.

On the other side Pitt oline has been fantastic protecting Pickett, he holds the ball a really long time giving his wrs a chance to get open which I think will be key here. Venables could choose to bring some blitzes to try and force Pickett to get ball out quicker but that sets up other problems as Pickett has a 130ish passer rating vs the blitz this year! I think Pickett is potentially the best qb in the nation this year (argument can certainly be made for Corral and a few others but it a short list!). He came back to exercise the demons of this game in particular! Imo this the best passing attack clemson has seen. Just don’t think they can hold Pickett to less than mid to high 20s which obviously has me thinking cover with the point total I expect from tigers.

Full discloser I was on Pitt catching a bunch of points at clemson last year also and Pickett threw 2-3 picks before I could blink my eyes and game was over within the 1st 5 minutes!! Truly believe he exercises the demons this year and makes a lot more ppl stand up and take notice when he puts on a show vs a very good clemson d! I honestly think if Pitt didn’t shit the bed in Pitt fashion against western Michigan earlier In the year we be talking bout them as a top 10 team. Imo Pitt the class the acc and they prove it 2marro night! I been wrong before tho, the fact you on clemson doesn’t make me feel good, I gotta stick with my belief on this one tho! At least if I’m wrong I’ll be happy you and others cashed!!!
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Bank, I totally get why people are on Pitt. I'm actually deviating from my numbers here. I just think it's a bad spot for them. Let's hope for a 3 point Pitt win, right? Maybe drop some ML then we'll both win.
 
Br@ssknux said:
7. @Minnesota -4 v Maryland: At this point in the season, it's safe to say that Maryland is pretty much dead in the water. Just about every year, they start out impressively only to have a brutal curb stomping, usually at home, and then it's all downhill from there. Consider the past few years. In 2015 they started 2-1, only to get blasted 45-6 at West Virginia. The then lost their next 8 until they squeaked out a 4 point win against Rutgers to close the season. In 2016, they started 5-2 only to lose 4(including a 3 game stretch in which they were outscored 149-13) in a row before again winning the finale against Rutgers. In 2017, they started 3-1 before getting blown out 62-14 at Ohio State. They then proceeded to lose 6 of their last 7. In '18, they were 4-2 until Iowa shut them out 23-0. They then lost 4 of their last 5, beating only a helpless Illinois team at home in the middle of it. In '19 it was Penn State's turn, a 59-0 weeknight whoopin at home that led to a skid of 7 of their last 8. You get the picture. It happens every year. This year it was the Iowa game. Iowa sprinkled the turnover pixie dust on Little Tua and then the Terps followed that up with a 66-17 shellackingat Ohio State last week. Now they go to Minnesota this week. Are we to expect them to shake it off after two weeks and turn their season around? There certainly isn't any precedence for it. If they get off the deck and hang with the Gophers I'll tip my cap, but all previous evidence suggests this is week 3 of a 8 week swan song, and the Gophers and PJ Fleck seem totally qualified to keep the momentum going.
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I've been impressed with Minn OL and the fact that 3 different RB's have all been successful this season. Morgan has proven to be a solid QB and with Autman-Bell healthy now their passing game has definitely trended up. MD is really banged up at WR losing Demus and Jones for the year and are more predicated on run after catch (wr screen type offense). Minn secondary worries me a little but MD doesn't really throw it downfield that much. This line seemed cheap to me and while I hate to bet against my Terps I had to do it.
 
Timh said:
I've been impressed with Minn OL and the fact that 3 different RB's have all been successful this season. Morgan has proven to be a solid QB and with Autman-Bell healthy now their passing game has definitely trended up. MD is really banged up at WR losing Demus and Jones for the year and are more predicated on run after catch (wr screen type offense). Minn secondary worries me a little but MD doesn't really throw it downfield that much. This line seemed cheap to me and while I hate to bet against my Terps I had to do it.
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Now I really feel good about this play....
 
Br@ssknux said:
Bank, I totally get why people are on Pitt. I'm actually deviating from my numbers here. I just think it's a bad spot for them. Let's hope for a 3 point Pitt win, right? Maybe drop some ML then we'll both win.
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lol. I guess I can live with that! I did grab soon as it got back to -3 the other day cause I do think the possibility there tigers are able to muck another one up and it turns out being a 20-17 type game. I like the spot, just think few these acc teams who having good years have to be licking their chops to get a chance to kick these guys while they down! Of course Pickett could go and shit the bed on me again as he did big time last year! If I recall correctly tigers offense (which was obviously much better last year) didn’t even have to do much cause Pickett threw a couple picks within 1st 5 min that either went for 6 or lead directly too a td.

I do like the fact the over was bet up pretty quickly. I think that validates my opinion pitt can score on these guys. Of course could mean tigers offense will take advantage of Pitt secondary also! Hard to say, suppose you could make it fit your narrative as easily as I am mine! Lol.

I was looking at Pitt schedule yesterday and honestly the game I think gonna be very scary for them is uva (assuming they can get there still with only the one redic loss). I think uva will be able to turn that info a track meet where last team with ball wins. I’d say unc could be that team but I don’t think they can protect Howell well enough to do that. Obviously Pitt has a bunch of work to do starting this week! Said the other day it be so Pitt to dominate this game, smash Miami, then lose to Duke as 2 td favs! Lol.

Anyways gl brother, at least one of us gotta win! I’d trade this game for rest of my card being perfect! (As I’m sure you would as well! Lol).
 
8. @UAB -23.5 v Rice: Not much to say about this one. Pretty much all UAB does under Bill Clark is cover spreads against overmatched conference foes (9-2-2 since the program started back up in 2017) and that is precisely what Rice is: Overmatched. I thought they might be a decent squad this year after a flurry of competence at the end of last year, but they have been getting manhandled this year. They managed wins against equally bad Southern Miss and FCS Texas Southern, but have been outscored in their 4 other games by a combined score of 147-7 and rank near the bottom of the barrel in every conceivable category. Like I said earlier, UAB feasts on these kinds of games, and I see no reason why anything should change in this instance.
 
I think it really hurt terps when they lost their best wr to that brutal injury in the iowa game, the offense hasn’t looked the same since (obviously comp level some of that but they had been moving the ball on iowa prior to the injury). Don’t think I would have my best skill position guys returning kicks!

I really hope Terps are able to change the narrative and get some wins this year (not this week tho).
 
Gonna be on Ohio State -21 for sure tomorrow just like everyone else but write up coming tomorrow. Want to keep these in chronological order but I’m a little afraid the line might move before I get to it.
 
Br@ssknux said:
6. Clemson +3.5 @ Pitt: Clemson is 0-6 against the spread, and it's obvious that the books have been slow to adjust to their legitimately bad offense, as they've been significant favorites every week despite a lot of evidence that they shouldn't be. It seems they've been waiting for an improvement in offensive output that just doesn't seem to be coming. Pitt on the other hand has been a public darling, covering like a champ last week at Virginia Tech despite the line ballooning up to almost a TD. Now finally, adjustments have been made on both sides, and Pitt is installed as a 3.5 point favorite, the first time Clemson has been a regular season dog since 2016. I really don't think you could conjure up a better formula to result in the best effort of the year for Clemson, and maybe the worst effort for Pitt. It's true that Pitt's offense, led by QB Kenny Pickett has been terrific. However they are in their element as a road team, and all their good performances have been there. They've played 2 cupcakes and Western Michigan so far at home, and they dropped the game to WMU. Now they are back home in all their glory expected to dispatch of Clemson. Teams that are seldom underdogs usually respond well in that role, and Dabo Swinney has all sorts of ammo to motivate his guys this year. Also, stud receiver Justyn Rose is as healthy as he's been all year, and if there's a pass defense this Clemson offense will break out against, it'll be this Pitt pass D that's ranked 78th and gave up more than 10 yards per attempt to Georgia Tech a couple weeks ago. We should also remember that although we all know how bad Clemson's offense has been, their defense is extremely solid again, including 9th against the pass. There's no doubt Pitt has been good and Clemson the opposite, I don't like the way this is setting up for Pitt.
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Clemson opened as the favorite tho
 
Br@ssknux said:
8. @UAB -23.5 v Rice: Not much to say about this one. Pretty much all UAB does under Bill Clark is cover spreads against overmatched conference foes (9-2-2 since the program started back up in 2017) and that is precisely what Rice is: Overmatched. I thought they might be a decent squad this year after a flurry of competence at the end of last year, but they have been getting manhandled this year. They managed wins against equally bad Southern Miss and FCS Texas Southern, but have been outscored in their 4 other games by a combined score of 147-7 and rank near the bottom of the barrel in every conceivable category. Like I said earlier, UAB feasts on these kinds of games, and I see no reason why anything should change in this instance.
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That Qb Rice had last year was a difference-maker. His absence also makes a difference.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
6. Clemson +3.5 @ Pitt: Clemson is 0-6 against the spread, and it's obvious that the books have been slow to adjust to their legitimately bad offense, as they've been significant favorites every week despite a lot of evidence that they shouldn't be. It seems they've been waiting for an improvement in offensive output that just doesn't seem to be coming. Pitt on the other hand has been a public darling, covering like a champ last week at Virginia Tech despite the line ballooning up to almost a TD. Now finally, adjustments have been made on both sides, and Pitt is installed as a 3.5 point favorite, the first time Clemson has been a regular season dog since 2016. I really don't think you could conjure up a better formula to result in the best effort of the year for Clemson, and maybe the worst effort for Pitt. It's true that Pitt's offense, led by QB Kenny Pickett has been terrific. However they are in their element as a road team, and all their good performances have been there. They've played 2 cupcakes and Western Michigan so far at home, and they dropped the game to WMU. Now they are back home in all their glory expected to dispatch of Clemson. Teams that are seldom underdogs usually respond well in that role, and Dabo Swinney has all sorts of ammo to motivate his guys this year. Also, stud receiver Justyn Rose is as healthy as he's been all year, and if there's a pass defense this Clemson offense will break out against, it'll be this Pitt pass D that's ranked 78th and gave up more than 10 yards per attempt to Georgia Tech a couple weeks ago. We should also remember that although we all know how bad Clemson's offense has been, their defense is extremely solid again, including 9th against the pass. There's no doubt Pitt has been good and Clemson the opposite, I don't like the way this is setting up for Pitt.
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Pitt's defensive scheme is the perfect scheme to stop this year's Tigers. However, I am astonished to see how poorly Pickett has done in his two prior matchups against Clemson. In 2018 (as a sophomore), he was 4-for-16 for 8 yards, with an INT in a 42-10 loss..

Last year he was 22-39 with 4 INTs and 2 TDs in a 52-17 loss..

I have to take issue with the part in bold. Clemson's best effort of the year was against Georgia, and I doubt that level of effort cannot be surpassed this week or any other.
 
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M.W. said:
Pitt's defensive scheme is the perfect scheme to stop this year's Tigers. However, I am astonished to see how poorly Pickett has done in his two prior matchups against Clemson. In 2018 (as a sophomore), he was 4-for-16 for 8 yards, with an INT in a 42-10 loss..

Last year he was 22-39 with 4 INTs and 2 TDs in a 52-17 loss..

I have to take issue with the part in bold. Clemson's best effort of the year was against Georgia, and that level of effort cannot be surpassed this week or any other.
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i was on pitt last year also,, i didnt need to look up how pickett did in that game!! thing was over in 5 min, 2 those picks came right out the gates i believe and game was over.. i guess it could be venebles scheme too much for him but i strongly believe this the redemption game for him.. he playing way better this year than i ever seen him, he is doing a awesome job not throwing picks, he does hold the ball as long as any d1 qb letting his wr get open, the oline doing a fantastic job allowing for that. that would kinda scare me cause you would think that means blitz him but he sporting a 130 rating when blitzed this year. in poickett i trust in this game.. glad to hear your thoughts about the pitt d and the problems i think they cause for tigers, we on same page there..
 
9. Boston College +5 @ Louisville: I got burned last week backing the Eagles at home against NC State, but you have to hand it to the Wolfpack, they really took care of business in what was a tough spot for them. Despite their poor showing last week, I noticed that BC is a bit of a public play, but I really think they bounce back this week. They are a GREAT dog, and that includes all scenarios. They're great as a hoe dog(other than last week) and they're great as a road dog (10-4 since 2017). The motivation will be strong for them to make amends for the poor performance last week, and Louisville has struggled to stop the run, which is exactly what BC is going to try to do. Louisville has fared a lot better than I expected this year, but even when they've played well, they haven't been able to blow anyone out, and every game they've played since week 3 has been a 1 score game. I addition, Last week notwithstanding, BC does not profile as a team likely to get blown out, especially in consecutive weeks and I give them at least a 50/50 chance to pull off the outright here. I actually got this at 6 earlier in the week, but I think it still holds value at 5.
 
M.W. said:
Pitt's defensive scheme is the perfect scheme to stop this year's Tigers. However, I am astonished to see how poorly Pickett has done in his two prior matchups against Clemson. In 2018 (as a sophomore), he was 4-for-16 for 8 yards, with an INT in a 42-10 loss..

Last year he was 22-39 with 4 INTs and 2 TDs in a 52-17 loss..

I have to take issue with the part in bold. Clemson's best effort of the year was against Georgia, and I doubt that level of effort cannot be surpassed this week or any other.
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I can understand that thought MW, but I thought their effort against Georgia was that of a team that was favored and expected to win. There was no chip on their shoulder. They played hard, sure, but they always play hard under Swinney. I just see this week being different from a motivational angle for them, and I think they'll respond well.
 
10. LSU +10/+8 @Ole Miss: I'm actually assuming that Matt Corral is going to play, and assuming Ole Miss plugs in John Rhys PLumlee if Corral can't go, I wouldn't like LSU's chances any better than I do as it stands. I think LSU's momentum is real, and I also think there's no doubt that they like Coach O, so it's likely we'll see an inspired effort from the Tigers here. LSU will of course have all sorts of trouble stopping Ole MIss's offense, but they were looking at the same issues last week with Florida, and things worked out just fine for them. Ole MIss's defense will also be at a disadvantage. They are better than they were last year, but they are still prone to all kinds of mistakes and the LSU offense, even when short-handed has proven to be capable of scoring against average defenses. We also can't deny how good Orgeron has been ATS in his stint at LSU. He's 6-2 as a road dog, 28-15 in conference games, 16-6-1 in conference road games, etc etc. I just don't think Ole Miss has the defense to run away and hide in this one.

****Edit: Line now up to 10....still plenty of time. I doubled the bet at -115, so I'm at 8 and 10. If it keeps going up, I'll probably add.
 
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11. Ohio State -21 @ Indiana: At this point, I don't know if it matters what defense lines up against this Buckeye offense. Indiana has a competent stop unit, but OSU's offense is humming along with such precision that I don't think they or any other middle of the road team is capable of keeping Ohio State under 45. OSU is not great on defense, but they certainly won't have any trouble stopping and probably scoring off of any offense lead by Jack Tuttle, or Michael Penix for that matter. Completing a forward pass is like rocket science/brain surgery for this Hoosier offense at this point, let alone racking up enough points to stay within shouting distance of this Buckeye offense still looking to score style points in their season long rehab from that Oregon loss. In addition, Ryan Day is automatic so far on the road, coming in at 7-1-1 in road games since he was promoted, while the Hoosiers are 3-9-1 as a hoe dog under Tom Ace or whatever his name is. No need to make this one more complicated. Frankly, I don't know why the books wouldn't have this one at 24+. They'd probably get the same action.
 
Yeaaaa I agree on LSU. ole miss retiring Eli number during game also...still like LSU with points. Their kids sounded like they want to play their asses off for coach o the rest of the year
 
It's only halftime, but Dino Babers strikes again. How hard do you have to work to be down 6 when you average 8.7 yards per carry, outgain the opponent 8.44 to 5.88 yards per play and commit no turnovers.

Of course, when you have first and goal at the 1 with 14 seconds left and two timeouts, yet find a way to only run 1 play and then miss an 18 yard FG, it's easy to see why the score might not be indicative of how the game is actually going on the field.
 
12. Georgia Tech +7(-115) @ Virginia: Virginia has definitely been explosive in the passing game, and I'm pretty sure Georgia Tech will have their hands full, but this UVa defense is going to have all kinds of problems stopping Ga Tech as well, as the Cavs are porous to say the least in all areas on defense, and the Yellow Jackets have a major edge in the running game on both sides of the ball. This just seems like a heavy number to cover for a Virginia team that's ranked 105th in overall yards per play and 115th against the run. It's usually a very sound strategy to take the points when two middling ACC teams are playing each other, and 7 is enough for me in this case.
 
Br@ssknux said:
12. Georgia Tech +7(-115) @ Virginia: Virginia has definitely been explosive in the passing game, and I'm pretty sure Georgia Tech will have their hands full, but this UVa defense is going to have all kinds of problems stopping Ga Tech as well, as the Cavs are porous to say the least in all areas on defense, and the Yellow Jackets have a major edge in the running game on both sides of the ball. This just seems like a heavy number to cover for a Virginia team that's ranked 105th in overall yards per play and 115th against the run. It's usually a very sound strategy to take the points when two middling ACC teams are playing each other, and 7 is enough for me in this case.
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I was close to pulling trigger on tech all week. Only concern is with the potential for so many points if the +7 as valuable?
 
Br@ssknux said:
Ugh. What a terrible week. To sum up: The things I thought might happen did not happen. Gonna need some strong weeks to get back over 60%. Onward!
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Seems like there's always one of those fluky weeks this time of year, keep doing you mang
 
Br@ssknux said:
Ugh. What a terrible week. To sum up: The things I thought might happen did not happen. Gonna need some strong weeks to get back over 60%. Onward!
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We all have them brother, I’ve had 2 this year. One early which whatever, but then right when I thought I was getting rolling I had a miserable one 3 weeks or so ago. Happens to the best of us, and you def one the best!
 
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