Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
NC State +20
Iowa +4
Indiana +3
Colorado +2
Virginia +11
TCU +6.5
UCLA -6.5
Auburn -10
Penn State +18.5
Washington St -7
Finally had a positive week last week with a 6-4 record. Still have a ways to go to get to positive, but I'll take it. Sorry I haven't been able to post until now this week...great points being made on this board. Here's what I've got, and it'll be a work in progress.
1. NC State +20 (-115) @ Louisville: Obviously, this isn't a great spot for Nc State,coming off their disastrous ending at Clemson, while Louisville is salivating at the chance to make amends for that piss poor effort last week against Duke as a 35 point favorite. Also, the public likes NC State, but I think this is with good reason. First of all, NC State is legit...they run the ball effectively, and have done so against good competition, they are stout against the run and very consistent overall on defense, having allowed more than 100 yards per game less than their opponents average. I also feel that the bloom has kind of left the rose for Louisville. Although there's nothing statistically that I can point to, they have not looked the same the past couple times out, and teams that start white hot like they did generally don't recapture the magic of the early season beatdowns. This line is still indicative of that Louisville team, so in my opinion, there's a lot of value.
2. @Iowa +4 v Wisconsin: Sometimes, even a stirring loss can have a major effect of what the public at large thinks of you. Over their entire body of work this year, there's a couple things we know about Wisconsin: First, they play fantastic defense. Second, they don't play fantastic offense. To that end, over the first 5 games we learned that Wisconsin had continued the departure from their days as a dominant rushing offense and fallen into a malaise of averaging less than 4 yards per carry over the past year and change. Over their first 5 this year, they cracked 4 yards per carry only once, at home against Akron, including a 3.8 ypc performance against Georgia State. Then everything changed when they ran very effectively against Ohio State, something very few people could have logically predicted going into that game. In addition, the previously pedestrian(at best) passing game under Alex Hornibrook broke out. That, my friends, was an outlier performance. Granted, it was an impressive outlier, but they used the off week and night atmosphere to grab their best effort and put a scare into the Buckeyes. Meanwhile, they are now facing the Iowa Hawkeyes, who look as if they are hitting their stride. They are running the ball effectively with their two headed monster at tailback, and their defense is playing very consistently both against the run and the pass. Over 80% of the public,(as far as I can tell) is on Wisconsin, impressed beyond belief by the Badgers game on Saturday. I cap this one as 2 pretty similar teams with Iowa having a bigger edge with their defense than Wisconsin does with there's. Wisconsin also currently has 13(!!) guys listed as questionable leading up to this game. Given that, I'll take the 4 points with the home team.
3. Indiana +3 @ Northwestern: This should be a fun game, but the long and short of my reasoning here is that I think Indiana is better than Northwestern. This is especially true on the defensive side of the ball, as IU has absolutely proven that they can stop people this year, and Northwestern has spent the better part of the year getting gashed through the air. NU put up some much better numbers the past 2 weeks than they are accustomed to, but this is still an offense who ranks 92nd running the ball. If Northwestern wants to pass, IU is actually well equipped to stop them, ranking 20th in passer rating against. On the other side of the ball, Northwestern's achilles heel is stopping the pass, and that plays into the hands of IU's #20 ranked pass offense. Also remember that NU is a terrible home favorite, going 4-12 ATS in the role since 2013.
4. Colorado +2 @ Stanford: When you match these two teams up against each other side by side, I think Colorado has the edge in just about every offensive category, and I think Colorado's defense will be able to keep this pedestrian Stanford offense under wraps, as they have done with better offenses than this,. The Buffs have blitzkrieg'd a couple opponents with some obscene yardage differentials. It appears that Christian McCaffrey is banged up again so there might be even less offensive fire power in this one for Stanford. Remember that Stanford could muster up only 296 yards against that putrid defense of Notre Dame with zero offensive touchdowns.
Iowa +4
Indiana +3
Colorado +2
Virginia +11
TCU +6.5
UCLA -6.5
Auburn -10
Penn State +18.5
Washington St -7
Finally had a positive week last week with a 6-4 record. Still have a ways to go to get to positive, but I'll take it. Sorry I haven't been able to post until now this week...great points being made on this board. Here's what I've got, and it'll be a work in progress.
1. NC State +20 (-115) @ Louisville: Obviously, this isn't a great spot for Nc State,coming off their disastrous ending at Clemson, while Louisville is salivating at the chance to make amends for that piss poor effort last week against Duke as a 35 point favorite. Also, the public likes NC State, but I think this is with good reason. First of all, NC State is legit...they run the ball effectively, and have done so against good competition, they are stout against the run and very consistent overall on defense, having allowed more than 100 yards per game less than their opponents average. I also feel that the bloom has kind of left the rose for Louisville. Although there's nothing statistically that I can point to, they have not looked the same the past couple times out, and teams that start white hot like they did generally don't recapture the magic of the early season beatdowns. This line is still indicative of that Louisville team, so in my opinion, there's a lot of value.
2. @Iowa +4 v Wisconsin: Sometimes, even a stirring loss can have a major effect of what the public at large thinks of you. Over their entire body of work this year, there's a couple things we know about Wisconsin: First, they play fantastic defense. Second, they don't play fantastic offense. To that end, over the first 5 games we learned that Wisconsin had continued the departure from their days as a dominant rushing offense and fallen into a malaise of averaging less than 4 yards per carry over the past year and change. Over their first 5 this year, they cracked 4 yards per carry only once, at home against Akron, including a 3.8 ypc performance against Georgia State. Then everything changed when they ran very effectively against Ohio State, something very few people could have logically predicted going into that game. In addition, the previously pedestrian(at best) passing game under Alex Hornibrook broke out. That, my friends, was an outlier performance. Granted, it was an impressive outlier, but they used the off week and night atmosphere to grab their best effort and put a scare into the Buckeyes. Meanwhile, they are now facing the Iowa Hawkeyes, who look as if they are hitting their stride. They are running the ball effectively with their two headed monster at tailback, and their defense is playing very consistently both against the run and the pass. Over 80% of the public,(as far as I can tell) is on Wisconsin, impressed beyond belief by the Badgers game on Saturday. I cap this one as 2 pretty similar teams with Iowa having a bigger edge with their defense than Wisconsin does with there's. Wisconsin also currently has 13(!!) guys listed as questionable leading up to this game. Given that, I'll take the 4 points with the home team.
3. Indiana +3 @ Northwestern: This should be a fun game, but the long and short of my reasoning here is that I think Indiana is better than Northwestern. This is especially true on the defensive side of the ball, as IU has absolutely proven that they can stop people this year, and Northwestern has spent the better part of the year getting gashed through the air. NU put up some much better numbers the past 2 weeks than they are accustomed to, but this is still an offense who ranks 92nd running the ball. If Northwestern wants to pass, IU is actually well equipped to stop them, ranking 20th in passer rating against. On the other side of the ball, Northwestern's achilles heel is stopping the pass, and that plays into the hands of IU's #20 ranked pass offense. Also remember that NU is a terrible home favorite, going 4-12 ATS in the role since 2013.
4. Colorado +2 @ Stanford: When you match these two teams up against each other side by side, I think Colorado has the edge in just about every offensive category, and I think Colorado's defense will be able to keep this pedestrian Stanford offense under wraps, as they have done with better offenses than this,. The Buffs have blitzkrieg'd a couple opponents with some obscene yardage differentials. It appears that Christian McCaffrey is banged up again so there might be even less offensive fire power in this one for Stanford. Remember that Stanford could muster up only 296 yards against that putrid defense of Notre Dame with zero offensive touchdowns.
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